I won't consider the market to be saturated until the Taliban starts bolting 50 cals to Cybertrucks instead of Toyota Hiluxes.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Elon has spent 4 out of the last 6 days in Austin.
As if nobody wants to risk getting their shares called away below $1000.
Like me, I closed a couple of december $900 calls a couple of days ago during the latest China scare because I don’t want to risk my shares with all the good news coming.
Say hi to Reed Hastings for me
If it's Reed, thank him for the 100x return but I've gone all over to tsla and he should too. Also (set the scene), imagine.. squid game 2: Tesla FSD*. The horror!
*No car that Tesla sells is fully self driving. Do not run over pets.
I don't think the structural packs will be made by a casting process... I think that they will be a more conventional process for the "box" that contains the cells.
The next car factory locations to be built after Shanghai, Berlin & Austin will be located at…
Shanghai, Berlin & Austin.
Those 3 locations will probably end up being somewhere north of 3x larger than Fremont, building at least 2 million units each annually.
Shanghai, Berlin & Austin.
Those 3 locations will probably end up being somewhere north of 3x larger than Fremont, building at least 2 million units each annually.
I think Dodger means, front and rear castings are required to be used with structural packs.
Austin, Berlin and Shanghai will be expanded and IMO all 3 will make Model 3 and one or more 25K models. Even that doesn't get Tesla on to the 20 million vechicles per year run rate without additional factories which typically take 2-3 years to ramp.
Accelerating clean enegy and transport requires a lot of rapid growth.
It is my unsubstantiated hope that the 25K models can use IDRA 4000 series casting machines, IDRA may be able to make them faster, and they may have a faster cycle time.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yes, thats still TBD, but the imagery provided on Bty Day
EDIT: here's the relevent slide from Bty Day so folks can judge for themselves:
Either way, it does not change the main point which is that 4680s packs are NOT coming to the Model S/X anytime soon.
Cheers!
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What they said was front and rear castings were rewarded to feather the shear force transfers into the pack, and cell cans were part of the structure...
The plan is 4680 structural pack, front and rear castings for Model Y at Austin and Berlin.
Cybertruck might be similar, in both cases, new cells and new vechicle production.
Moving Model S/X to 4680 might not increase vechicle production, even it it does, that would be minor compared to Model Y and Cybertruck volumes.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, you're NEARLY there: Moving Model S/X to 4680 might WOULD DEFINITELY decrease vehicle production, because Tesla would be passing up on a 10 GWh/yr supply of battery cells.
Every three Models S/X made with 100 KWh 4680 packs means that four Models Y could not be built with 75 KWh 4680 packs.
18650s can not be replaced w/o sacrificing other production while Tesla is using every cell they can buy or make.
Ergo, until there is a surplus of battery cells (years from now), THERE WILL BE NO 4680s in S/X.
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Agreed. Elon himself said as much.
Quelle surprise! What a coincidence .. within hours of the Q3 P&D report, CNBS release a 30 min video involving the usual suspects, Karen Kolodny , Tesla “Doc Watson” Charts et al 
Morning folks! I'll just leave this here...
I'm "out of the office" this week, in sunny Romania - beautiful country
I'm "out of the office" this week, in sunny Romania - beautiful country
Welcome to the club.. After deleting my old LinkedIn account, I re-created a profile with “semi retired” as the job title.. just to pss off some of my nasty former colleagues
Hey, after reading this literally every day, I wanted to thank for all the awesome info found here. I'm long since 270USD pre-split (so 54 now) with a fair good freakin' large amount of shares and have no intentions to change that in the coming years
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
....and Germans a flat 25% cap gains tax (+5.5% solidarity tax + 8-9% church tax on the cap gains tax amount, so worst case 29%)
I do not approve of dividends!
And the type of problem we'd all like to have, surely?
What makes India interesting too is the potential (free?) trade agreement between the EU and India. That will probably make India more attractive than China for EU imports (assuming Berlin needs help with demand), also from a shipping time perspective.
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