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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Industry answer is chips. 4680 or other battery issues doesn't sound right because so many model S were parked in lots. With X I wonder if it is insufficient supply of 4680 cells causing the delay.
Does Tesla count cars parked in lots waiting for a part as “produced” car in the quarter? If not then the numbers are even better then people think.
 
Morning folks! I'll just leave this here...


I'm "out of the office" this week, in sunny Romania - beautiful country
Wow. Is this where you are??
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Ugh, I can not believe we are still having this discussion: Model S/X is NOT getting a 4680 bty pack in the forseeable future (meaning at least several years). Elon has said so, multiple times: Tesla will NOT turn off a 10 GWh/yr supply of battery cells (those 18650s imported from Japan) while they are still cell constrained.

How do you not get this? :rolleyes:

Maybe in several years, after both Austin and Berlin are fully ramped with local 4680 production, and the new Roadster is fully supplied with its 200 KWh packs, and Tesla Semi production is not limited by the availability of 4680 cells for its 600-to-1,000 KWh packs, then MAYBE Tesla will update the Palladium S/X to use 4680 structural packs.

But there is a limit on the number of new IDRA Gigapresses can make each year (likely required to produce structural packs), so DO NOT hold your breath. Those presses will go first to Models 2/Z factories, then Robotaxi...

I estimate its perhaps 7 years until Tesla switches Models S/X to 4680s.

Deal with it! :p

Cheers!
Calm down. Not everyone was here for the great cell transition wars of years past. @Blue horseshoe joined Aug 15, 2020, well after 2170 version of the transition debate.

Based on the post you quoted, Bh may just have been misstating what cells go into S/X, not suggesting X would use a different pack from S.
Do we still not have an inkling what is holding up s production? I so want to know the answer to this.
Note response to a question on S (known to still use 18650) calls out 4680.
Industry answer is chips. 4680 or other battery issues doesn't sound right because so many model S were parked in lots. With X I wonder if it is insufficient supply of 4680 cells causing the delay.

Ten Thousand
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Mouse over: "Saying 'what kind of an idiot doesn't know about the Yellowstone supervolcano' is so much more boring than telling someone about the Yellowstone supervolcano for the first time."
 
....and Germans a flat 25% cap gains tax (+5.5% solidarity tax + 8-9% church tax on the cap gains tax amount, so worst case 29%)

I do not approve of dividends!
Tesla-related: support or opposition to dividends by investors outside USA.

This prompted me to check UK.

- SIPP (pension) - no dividend tax with W8BEN.

- ISA (commonly-used investment vehicle limited to £20k/year, but builds up over time) - 15% tax (instead of 30% in USA) - needs W8BEN, I was shocked that not all providers support this, mention of Halifax/iWeb (same) & some others NOT. This makes it harder to spread investments to protect yourself from provider/broker failure.

This complicates how I might take money in future & spread investments across brokers.. where's my spreadsheet?



Mod: no tax talk in this thread.
 
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I hope this works .... I've been watching Elon for two years now. And while I appreciate what he has done for me, and is doing for the world, I always saw him as having an inferiority vibe. To me he's uncomfortable all the time... I don't know what it is..sometimes I think he's tired of herding cats, other times I think he just feels like he is incapable of making anyone understand him...
But dude! If this photo shows up (my tweet skills are in embryonic form) look at this image. You know he's the man, the photographer knows he's the man, the graduates know he's the man. And he knows we all know..the truth.
The photographer captured it perfectly... look at the graduates in the background. Most of them are no longer facing the stage.Even though Elon has his back to them and is walking away, and is far from them there are still quite a few staring at him.
Elon Musk has Asperger's Syndrome which is on the Autism spectrum so don;t read too much into his mannerisms or speech.
My Ex is a Speech Pathologist and worked with autistic children as well as had a son with Asperger's
People with this are often intelligent some even brilliant but have trouble with social interaction.
They really have trouble with eye contact and often have speech patterns with different tones and modulations than "normal" people.
They often take more time to process information before speaking. They basically see and hear the world differently and isn't that one of the greatest traits of Elon Musk?
The fact that he interacts as well as he does, uses sarcasm ( something many also have difficulty with) and even did SNL is indicative to me of a man that lets nothing get into his way.
 
Speaking of cells, based on the old 120k/yr S/X capacity, there should be over 5 GWh of unallocated 18650 cell production so far in 2021.
Tesla Energy is the least form factor constrained. If they made a 1865(0) module for Megapack (even for just internal V3 Supercharger load leveling), they could boost production and/or allocate more 2170 lines to 3/Y.
 
I did have a crack at working out possible factory locations here:-

2 things were apparent:-
  1. Any attempt to model this needs lots of assumptions...
  2. Tesla needs to be very aggressive about new factory locations possibly as early as 2023...

20 Million vehicles per year by 2030 is a tough stretch target, the kind of target only a company like Tesla would shoot for,.

Just for comparison, starting at 0.9 million in 2021 and adding 50% every year would get Tesla to more than 34 million in 2030. Question is probably if cell chemistry resources will be limiting along the way.
 
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Weekend OT:
Just watched the very popular Ryan Reynolds movie Called Free Guy, and there are very prominent Tesla vehicle placements in almost every shot at the last scene. Free advertising in a summer blockbuster movie, YES PLEASE

At the end of the movie there is a Tesla is the back of just about every shot. It the old nose-cone style but every interesting considering this is in the peaceful futuristic dream world and they plastered a Tesla in every camera angle and even reused it in the background when it wasn't supposed to be there. i.e. They kept walking and talking and walked past the same Tesla 2 times. There are plenty of more scenes with it being shown, but I didn't want to spam this forum with movie screenshots. :cool:
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Don’t think this has been posted yet, only 150 views so I would guess not. At 10min he starts going through how Freemont uses agile development and gives a lot of insight about how life is at the factory…


Excellent video.

The contrast between how Tesla operates and VW recently rousing up its bloated internal bureaucracy for emergency meetings couldn’t be greater.

Probably one of the largest keys to Tesla’s success right there.
 
So somehow, tomorrow I’m going over to a billionaire’s house of a large internet media giant.

How long after introductions is it appropriate to advise them to put all their liquid assets into Tesla?
Obviously, you’re going to want to scope out the house so you can learn how the rich live. Obviously, you want to partake in the canapés and expensive liquor during the game.

After that, your approach might be to have them lend you a few million so you can turn it into more millions by buying TSLA and then just pay them back with some interest because obviously they don’t need the money AND they’re in ‘media’. 😱
 
Just for comparison, starting at 0.9 million in 2021 and adding 50% every year would get Tesla to more than 34 million in 2030. Question is probably if cell chemistry resources will be limiting along the way.
I think this growth rate was planned and the cell raw materials were selected to support this growth rate, or deselected if they did not support this growth rate.
 
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