Ugh, I can not believe we are still having this discussion: Model S/X is
NOT getting a 4680 bty pack in the forseeable future (meaning at least several years). Elon has said so, multiple times: Tesla will
NOT turn off a 10 GWh/yr supply of battery cells (those 18650s imported from Japan) while they are still cell constrained.
How do you not get this?
Maybe in several years, after both Austin and Berlin are fully ramped with local 4680 production,
and the new Roadster is fully supplied with its 200 KWh packs,
and Tesla Semi production is not limited by the availability of 4680 cells for its 600-to-1,000 KWh packs,
then MAYBE Tesla will update the Palladium S/X to use 4680 structural packs.
But there is a limit on the number of new IDRA Gigapresses can make each year (likely required to produce structural packs), so
DO NOT hold your breath. Those presses will go first to Models 2/Z factories, then Robotaxi...
I estimate its perhaps 7 years until Tesla switches Models S/X to 4680s.
Deal with it!
Cheers!