TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
You gotta allow for some MM covering this afternoon and the increased volume. We'll be red, but make our way back up to close $795ish. For MM's that's mission accomplished.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It could end negative for the day since the stock momentum is now broken and it's not recovering with the macro's at the same percentage. Volume has really dropped.
My disagree though is the part about "standard behavior". TSLA lost momentum because of macro's. Just unfortunate timing. MM's seem to be stepping in over the past hour and spoofing any recovery but the lost momentum and downturn wasn't because of MM's.
Man people have short memories here. Before the last 2 quarters, the time between P/D and earnings was always the time to be in the stock. Massive rallies during those time periods. Any looking at past trends to make future predictions is going to get blown up.
From MarketWatch:
Tesla’s ‘impressive’ Q3 sales boost stock and Wall Street analysts hike estimates
Wall Street got busy over the weekend raising expectations on Tesla Inc. after the Silicon Valley electric-car maker reported quarterly sales that topped expectations despite lingering supply-chain snarls.
Tesla TSLA, 0.40% surprised markets on Saturday by saying it sold 241,300 vehicles in the third quarter, a new quarterly record for the company’s deliveries and up from 139,593 vehicles sold in the same period last year.
“Tesla continues to weather the (semiconductor) shortage better than the rest of the autos industry,” Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank said in a note Monday, calling the sales numbers “impressive.”
Rosner tweaked higher his expectations for 2021 revenue and profit, and said Tesla is demonstrating “strong confidence” in its 2022 growth rate.
Tesla’s ‘impressive’ Q3 sales boost stock and Wall Street analysts hike estimates
Wall Street got busy over the weekend raising expectations on Tesla Inc. after the Silicon Valley electric-car maker reported quarterly sales that topped expectations despite lingering supply-chain snarls.
Tesla TSLA, 0.40% surprised markets on Saturday by saying it sold 241,300 vehicles in the third quarter, a new quarterly record for the company’s deliveries and up from 139,593 vehicles sold in the same period last year.
“Tesla continues to weather the (semiconductor) shortage better than the rest of the autos industry,” Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank said in a note Monday, calling the sales numbers “impressive.”
Rosner tweaked higher his expectations for 2021 revenue and profit, and said Tesla is demonstrating “strong confidence” in its 2022 growth rate.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I have to agree with Tesla End Game's last statement ... he does appear to be simple.Great Q3 for Tesla....but i'd like to point out this tweet by a twitter handle @EndTesla since his handle checks out and his tweets make 100% sense
SIMPLE:
View attachment 717749
ZachF
Active Member
OK, here is a little chart I made... It's TTM revenue going back to 2007q4, adjusted for inflation:
Dotted lines are projections. Q3 assumes revenues roughly went in line with published YoY sales, and Q4 assumes a slight QoQ recovery in sales.
As you can see, most auto makers have been barely able to grow revenues beyond the rate of inflation.
Tesla will probably pass Nissan next year in size. possibly in late 2023 or almost certainly in 2024, Tesla will pass Honda/Ford/GM/BMW (who are all pretty much the same size now) for the #4 world automaker spot. I think Tesla takes the crown sometime in 2025. It'll probably be the most profitable automaker well before this.
Dotted lines are projections. Q3 assumes revenues roughly went in line with published YoY sales, and Q4 assumes a slight QoQ recovery in sales.
As you can see, most auto makers have been barely able to grow revenues beyond the rate of inflation.
Tesla will probably pass Nissan next year in size. possibly in late 2023 or almost certainly in 2024, Tesla will pass Honda/Ford/GM/BMW (who are all pretty much the same size now) for the #4 world automaker spot. I think Tesla takes the crown sometime in 2025. It'll probably be the most profitable automaker well before this.
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Krugerrand
Meow
I see patterns in my tea leaves, toast and pancakes and I base my day’s plans on them. Usually I see dead people.
Ok, I’ll be serious for a moment. The human brain has this nagging need to be able to make sense of things. Wrap everything up in neat little boxes. Have an explanation to justify things. A reason for this and that. None of it even has to be true, to be true. *Insert well-known saying*
You seem to have it figured out. I’ll look forward to hearing about your subsequent life altering results next week.
Here is the updated quarterly chart showing the development of deliveries by quarter over the last few years. It's one of my favourites because it's a compelling visualisation of how fast Tesla is growing. Courtesy of Statista.
Number of Tesla vehicles delivered worldwide from 1st quarter 2016 to 3rd quarter 2021
ZachF
Active Member
This is IMHO, what will happen to a lot of legacy automakers...
They'll break up into an EV unit and an ICE unit, and the ICE unit will keep all of the debt and basically be a sacrificial lamb for bankruptcy. The EV half will get bailouts. Kinda a situation similar to what vulture capitalists do when they lard up companies with debt, split them up, then foist it on the public via bankruptcy and eject with golden parachutes.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
All the utilities in Germany attempted this exact move around 2015. Solar reached 4% of total supply, but had grid priority and was providing 30-50% of peak supply. That permanently ruined their ability for utilities to make profits gouging customers with absurd prices at peak.
They quickly realized it was over and split into production and grid services, with the intention of immediately sending the production half thru bankruptcy with all it's debt. Merkel told them no way, and forced both entities thru bankruptcy together. Years later they're out the other end as grid services ready to handle the next massive leap to something like 80% renewables.
In retrospect, them being forced on this path saved German taxpayers and ratepayers billions. Plus the marketplace is now ready for the future.
Mary Barra will likely just have her lobbyists tell our court system how GM would like to proceed so the bailout flows optimally. We as taxpayers will of course be left holding the bag of excrement. I wish we didn't live in a purely corporate socialist society and were more capitalist like Germany.
Legacy auto splitting off their EV segments weakens any position for the EV segments to get government bailouts.
Sorry but the government is not going to bail out companies who's employee count will be less than 10,000 and if legacy does split off their EV segments, the employee counts on those EV segments will be much less than 10,000 employees. Probably less than 5,000 employees in fact.....especially when the majority of those employees will be in non-union states or even in other countries like Mexico.
By GM keeping their EV business as part of GM, they could at least try and make the case of a bailout because of how many employees GM has.
Probably. Tesla and Chinese manufactures more than likely, if any.
Everyone else is still sleeping. They are more concerned with the battery supply, not realizing, like VW “just” did, that it’s actually all about manufacturing also.
Those 10h per Y to make are only going to shrink. How else to make 20mills a year, if not by making them faster? Stop the time? Not possible, it’s breaking the physics.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
RobDickinson
Active Member
No, Tesla isn't even their biggest customer.
There's a Chinese robot manufacturer who buys a lot more gigapress
Of course this will be done mostly to get them out of pension debt. Screwing the people who are the least powerful. The rest of the debt most of these companies have is lease debt. I can see Ford surviving using this technique. I don't think Stellantis/Chrysler can. They are too far behind. The fact that F and GM could do this is the primary reason I don't short their stocks. I don't believe shorting is usually a good strategy, but if there were no 'tricks' like this split off technique, GM is pretty much worthless right now.
There’s no way that can possibly be correct. Fremont has what 2 already? Giga China has a couple. Berlin will have 4, Texas already has 3 with spots for 3 more. I think you might be confusing IDRA’s other products with gigapresses
The Dandelion Strategy. Ya ever notice what happens when you spray a dandelion with weed killer? Sure enough it dies but as it's dying, it puts all its last energy into launching its seeds into the wind thwarting your attempt at extermination. Unfortunately for GM, they haven't had a few million years to refine this evolutionary tactic.
ZachF
Active Member
Yes, I think F and GM, even though their performance has been crap, will survive (though as much smaller entities). Most of Stellantis will probably die, though some brands like Jeep might survive.
Countries that are huge ICE exporters will have a harder time doing this. Ford and GM's revenues are only equal to ~1% of US GDP, so a bailout will be comparatively cheap.
For countries like Germany and Japan, where their ICE companies revenues are >10% of GDP? ...rough times.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I was implying we'd dip red then recover to 795 on MM covering and continued buying.
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