Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MikeC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446357694072381440

 

[RobStark]

Part of the reason legacy auto's operational margin is so low is because their production is spread out over so many factories. It's inefficient. Yes more factories will be needed, but Tesla doesn't need to be at this breakneck pace of building factories to hit their production goals.

It also makes a strike at one GF much more devastating than a strike at a Mega Factory.

It is my understand of German law that a workers council/union is required at Giga Berlin.

The entire theoretical 2M units for Europe are put at risk if GF Berlin goes on strike.

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446362034749255721

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Interesting milestone of $801.38 in Germany.

The last time Tesla traded this high there was in Feb of this year.

 

[Baumisch]

...
No discussion of the "B" word.
...

you mean the Bot or what?

 

[Artful Dodger]

If Tesla doesn't decide on a new Gigafactory location until 2023, would that imply that their capex would shrink dramatically next year once Austin and Berlin are done? If so, seems like that's even better EPS for the next 18 months or so.

One more big Plant at Giga Shanghai (Model 'Not-a-2'). They're doing foundation prep earth-work for it right now. Say 18-mths to first production. Likely in 4 stages of 500K/yr capacity each, I think. Give it 3 years total. Also convert Model 3 line to Gigacastings to increase production density. Total run-rate of 3M/yr at Shanghai in 3 years. Semi is a wild card not included in this estimate, but China needs an alternative to heavy diesel trucks.

Giga Berlin has 1 of 4 phases in place now at 500K/yr planned capacity (bty plant is separate). There's land there for 3 more phases. Likely run-rate 3 years from now is 2M/yr, with the next phase being the Euro 'Not-a-2'.

Giga Texas has 4 square miles of land. They can build in Austin forever, I expect. Model Y run-rate of 500K/yr by end of 2022, Cybertruck run-rate of 200K by end of 2023, and 10K Semis also by 2023 yr-end. Then they'll look at CT sales, and double that production. They'll ramp Semi to 100K over a few years. Call that 1M/yr in 3 yrs. Then there's got to be a N.American 'Not-a-2' because ROBO-TAXI is just too important as a commuter/city-car. At least 1M/yr (but I don't see Tesla being timid here).

Oh, and Fremont to 750K/yr (including 100K Models S/X + 5K Roadsters, with Kato Rd 10GWh/yr bty cell supply).

Add that all up, that's about 7M. Yes, 7 million Tesla vehicles per year run-rate, maybe as soon as end of 2024, and ALL BEFORE chosing a single new factory location.

I expect India for a $15K 'Model 1' in 2025, and maybe Brazil or Mexico at the same time. Japan should be begging for a Model 2 plant by then (ICE all melted), and S.Korea drooling. Australia printing Megapacks like Movie tickets...

I'm calling 20M by 2027. Deal with it.

Cheers!

#LFP #Production #Forecast

 

[MC3OZ]

#LFP

That was the one part of the shareholder meeting that stuck in my mind, Elon mentioning that drivetrain efficiencies made LFP viable..

That poses the question :- How much more efficient can EV drivetrains get?

LFP energy density is improving, motors are hopefully getting more efficient, there are still many more ways of saving weight and making drivetrains more efficient.. 2% here, 3% there .. it all adds up...

 

[deshkart]

With Tesla ramping up, ... I expect the increasing EV deliveries will create Supply demand Imbalance curve for Oil in 2023/2024 similar to what happened in 2014.

Basically Saudi starts panicking seeing the EV adoption and will want to drive US and Canadian Oil producers so that they can survive for longer time selling oil. So, they will flood the oil market with more supply crashing the price of oil. Even though its painful for Saudi, the goal is to create way more pain for US and Canadian producers and drive them out of market. In 2014 oil crashed to $25 per barrel from $100 in matter of months over just 2% of extra supply.

 

[lascavarian]

you mean the Bot or what?

No diversion off into currencies

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla raises price of Model 3 SR+ in Germany

Just a few hours away from Giga Berlin hosting a huge party, Tesla has raised the price of the Standard Range Plus (SR+) Model 3 in Germany. According to the online configurator, the entry-level variant […]

driveteslacanada.ca

"According to the online configurator, the entry-level variant of the electric sedan is now €2,000 more expensive, priced at €41,990"​

 

[NicoV]

With Tesla ramping up, ... I expect the increasing EV deliveries will create Supply demand Imbalance curve for Oil in 2023/2024 similar to what happened in 2014.

Basically Saudi starts panicking seeing the EV adoption and will want to drive US and Canadian Oil producers so that they can survive for longer time selling oil. So, they will flood the oil market with more supply crashing the price of oil. Even though its painful for Saudi, the goal is to create way more pain for US and Canadian producers and drive them out of market. In 2014 oil crashed to $25 per barrel from $100 in matter of months over just 2% of extra supply.

Yeah, seems like energy prices have high swings lately. Europe faces an energy crisis right now, with extremely high spot prices for natural gas, and linked to that, very high prices for electricity, because apparently the energy companies didn’t order enough natural gas for this winter, and with the economic post-corona revival natural gas demand is much higher than expected.
E.g. I have a 3-year fixed price electricity contract of about 5 eurocents/kWh (energy part only, additionally there is 20-25 cents of taxes on top of that). A new variable price contract would have about 20 eurocents/kWh for the energy part.
These price swings are caused by relatively small swings in demand, I expect this to get worse as the impact of of switching from ICE to EV gets bigger.

 

[lascavarian]

If Tesla doesn't decide on a new Gigafactory location until 2023, would that imply that their capex would shrink dramatically next year once Austin and Berlin are done? If so, seems like that's even better EPS for the next 18 months or so.

He has also mentioned HW 4 for FSD. It seems too early to know if there will be an upgrade required and what the cost might be over a million or so vehicles in the field. Not exactly capex but a possible expense.

 

[RobDickinson]

He has also mentioned HW 4 for FSD. It seems too early to know if there will be an upgrade required and what the cost might be over a million or so vehicles in the field. Not exactly capex but a possible expense.

Hw4 if its required will only be fitted to cars that have paid for fsd so not a million. Cost would come out of fsd revenue I'd assume.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

It also makes a strike at one GF much more devastating than a strike at a Mega Factory.

It is my understand of German law that a workers council/union is required at Giga Berlin.

The entire theoretical 2M units for Europe are put at risk if GF Berlin goes on strike.

I doubt Tesla Bots will be afraid of picket lines, but hopefully the stock options will be lucrative enough to make a strike unnecessary.

 

[Englishman]

One more big Plant at Giga Shanghai (Model 'Not-a-2'). They're doing foundation prep earth-work for it right now. Say 18-mths to first production. Likely in 4 stages of 500K/yr capacity each, I think. Give it 3 years total. Also convert Model 3 line to Gigacastings to increase production density. Total run-rate of 3M/yr at Shanghai in 3 years. Semi is a wild card not included in this estimate, but China needs an alternative to heavy diesel trucks.

Giga Berlin has 1 of 4 phases in place now at 500K/yr planned capacity (bty plant is separate). There's land there for 3 more phases. Likely run-rate 3 years from now is 2M/yr, with the next phase being the Euro 'Not-a-2'.

Giga Texas has 4 square miles of land. They can build in Austin forever, I expect. Model Y run-rate of 500K/yr by end of 2022, Cybertruck run-rate of 200K by end of 2023, and 10K Semis also by 2023 yr-end. Then they'll look at CT sales, and double that production. They'll ramp Semi to 100K over a few years. Call that 1M/yr in 3 yrs. Then there's got to be a N.American 'Not-a-2' because ROBO-TAXI is just too important as a commuter/city-car. At least 1M/yr (but I don't see Tesla being timid here).

Oh, and Fremont to 750K/yr (including 100K Models S/X + 5K Roadsters, with Kato Rd 10GWh/yr bty cell supply).

Add that all up, that's about 7M. Yes, 7 million Tesla vehicles per year run-rate, maybe as soon as end of 2024, and ALL BEFORE chosing a single new factory location.

I expect India for a $15K 'Model 1' in 2025, and maybe Brazil or Mexico at the same time. Japan should be begging for a Model 2 plant by then (ICE all melted), and S.Korea drooling. Australia printing Megapacks like Movie tickets...

I'm calling 20M by 2027. Deal with it.

Cheers!

#LFP #Production #Forecast

(First Post! Hi everyone)

I like it. 20M by 2027 is coincidently 'only' 70% growth

2020 - 500,000
2021 - 850,000
2022 - 1,445,000
2023 - 2,456,500
2024 - 4,176,050
2025 - 7,099,285
2026 - 12,068,785
2027 - 20,516,634

Why not!? Bring it on.

 

[AZRI11]

It also makes a strike at one GF much more devastating than a strike at a Mega Factory.

It is my understand of German law that a workers council/union is required at Giga Berlin.

The entire theoretical 2M units for Europe are put at risk if GF Berlin goes on strike.

One year after opening Gigaberlin workers will have to decide whether to unionize or not.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA down 3x vs macros in early Pre-market trading:

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
14,849.75 -31.50 (-0.21%)

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Oct 08, 2021 05:34 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$788.31 -5.30 (-0.67%)
Pre-Market Volume	18,376
Pre-Market High	$793.51 (04:00:00 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$787 (05:07:37 AM)

 

[nativewolf]

Pivot shift!!

I think meaningless, that offer has been out for years on all sorts of IP. Nobody taking them up on it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

(First Post! Hi everyone)

I like it. 20M by 2027 is coincidently 'only' 70% growth

2020 - 500,000
2021 - 850,000
2022 - 1,445,000
2023 - 2,456,500
2024 - 4,176,050
2025 - 7,099,285
2026 - 12,068,785
2027 - 20,516,634

Why not!? Bring it on.

Welcome! Congrats on your first contribution here at TMC. Wouldn't it have been more fun if Tesla had delivered 499,203 cars in 2020? Then, delivering 20M cars in 7 yrs would be a CAGR of 69.420%



Cheers!

 

[nativewolf]

One year after opening Gigaberlin workers will have to decide whether to unionize or not.

But they will have a workers council, nothing to do with unionization. Typically the workers councils are an important stakeholder and have influence. I am sure some of our German colleagues could weigh in here and educate the cultural challenged, I am not really sure of the mechanism just that they are a force.