Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drezil]

It is my understand of German law that a workers council/union is required at Giga Berlin.

Well.. it is not that easy.

Above 10 workers they have the RIGHT, but not the OBLIGATION to form a workers council. At my last employer we were >200 employees without a workers council.

Additionally workers can join a union, which effectively gives the whole thing more power in negotiations.

If in a sector (e.g. metalworks) enough workers across companies are unionized then this union can also negotiate for everybody in that sector (unionized or not). Basically all metalwork employees against all metalwork employers. This sets standards like minimum wage, maximum hours, etc. pp. in that particular sector.
On the other hand we have the "Vertragsfreiheit" (freedom of contract). So your workers council could argue for more than the minimum - but that is not valid outside of your company

So as an employee you have many rights. But not the obligation to use them. Why would you go on a strike if you are happy, because you are treated good?
Many things are just formalities and only used/enforced in the realm of minimum-wagers or if the expected compensation-rise falls below inflation. If you are decent payed and happy then there is a saying "Wo kein Kläger, da kein Richter" (Where there is no plaintiff, there is no ruling)
And you cannot sue onto behalf of others. Only a person affected by the "bad contract" has a right to sue.

If you as an employer are an ass on a personal basis then employees have several rights to get onto you. Even if they don't win everything is a PITA.

And of course no union would argue for stocks as compensation - but a workers council might

Edit: @FS_FRA beat me to it ..

 

[TheWalkingDad]

Jobs report was a mixed bag. Only 194k jobs. Higher wage means inflation is persistent. Interesting to see how the feds react since this sends mixed signals as to the taper.

 

[SPadival]

FWIW

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446192403787001869

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446195761679638531

If the latter were true (I seriously doubt it), byebye shorts

Worth less than nothing. As always. Please don't rely on Squawky.

 

[Discoducky]

No mention of Berlin but Austin Elon said model y will start this Q with 4680s

Starting production in Q4 with 4860's is huge. This cannot be said enough. It's like Babe Ruth pointing at the sky folks.

In my models, this is the thing that kicks us out of the high P/E ratios and starts the push to 20x. I say 20x P/E as I think we'll be a more stable money printing machine than any other company that has ever existed on the planet in 2025 (could even be late 2024, but this is conservative). Should see ROIC closing in on 50% which is unheard of.

Why 2025? All factories at their full potential, Tesla continuing to sell every single product they make, demand causing wait times, even though they get high premiums over other competing products.

That all starts with 4860 production which is the lynch pin. Discounting everything else Tesla will do in the next 3 years, if they **just** ramp up 4860's they will take over the retail automotive markets even more than they do today.

 

[Singuy]

Qqq likes the job report as 10 years is tanking. All signs are pointing to a reversal of the correction trend from the last 3 weeks. Let's blast through 368 for that macro reversal.

 

[elasalle]

What if there is no 25k model? What if Tesla solves autonomy and sells the Ys to whoever wants to buy them, with FSD as monthly subscription only, and starts deploying Ys as Robotaxis?

I think Elon joked something that all cars were the same in I don’t remember what movie.

If FSD is solved, cars(hardware) can be made cheaper. EM keeps saying the Tesla moat is manufacturing, so that would also mean cheaper to manufacture.
All margins on software ...

Not sure Americans will want to share their cars, if they don't want to even share public transport.

 

[elasalle]

Worth less than nothing. As always. Please don't rely on Squawky.

Tweets about the dividends likely caused the spike in SP and helped the day traders and got the algobots to do on over drive.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Tesla Announces Date for Third Quarter 2021 Financial Results and Webcast

AUSTIN, Texas, October 8, 2021 – Tesla will post its financial results for the third quarter of 2021 after market close on Wednesday, October 20, 2021. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q3 2021 update, which will be

ir.tesla.com

That must be the earliest ever quarterly call.

 

[petit_bateau]

Multiple small rollers running in parallel?

Roller ends mark the sheet. Rollers should be wider than the sheet so that the markings at the edge are trimmed off (to be recycled) and do not go into the final product.

Generally to increase roller width (and thereby sheet width) the roller diameter also needs to increase, so that the roller becomes stiff enough that the contact pressure (and roller deflection) can be maintained evenly across the entire sheet width. Other things also need to change simultaneously to achieve this, such as camber and surface hardness and roller wall thickness and maybe other stuff.

 

[SPadival]

Tweets about the dividends likely caused the spike in SP and helped the day traders and got the algobots to do on over drive.

I mean.. Come on!!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446457029590077444

 

[Drezil]

Just popped up in my IBKR-TWS-feed:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446456593172795421

$TSLA price target raised from $768 to $940 at Canaccord Genuity

 

[larmor]

Tweets about the dividends likely caused the spike in SP and helped the day traders and got the algobots to do on over drive.

Or moving HQ to Austin where the next factory will be operational, closer to starbase, and cost of living is less, allowing Tesla to attract new talent.

 

[SPadival]

That must be the earliest ever quarterly call.

Because minus Elon Time, as Elon won't be attending?

 

[Discoducky]

Paging @The Accountant When will Tesla be start to show lower taxes due to Austin, TX now being HQ? How does that work? And TIA

 

[Krugerrand]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446402790205579264

How many are they trying to recruit? 100+?

Elon just turned the resume world upside down and I expect to be hired later today.

In no particular order, Elon, these are my exceptional talents.

• Can herd cats
• Went all in TSLA in 2012 and HELD through every single sky is falling event to date without blinking
• Have scored and maintained a safety score of for multiple days

The end.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Thoughts for the morning:

There's no need for not-Model 2 for years. Model Y will sell like mad until it's #1 in the world. Perhaps a good cheap base model in 2023.

There is no way to herd cats. Anyone who claims this ability should be avoided at all costs.

It's time to start shorting AMC and oil.

Let's go $820!

 

[Boomer19]

Just popped up in my IBKR-TWS-feed:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446456593172795421

out of curiosity, as a european customer on ibkr platform, can you buy a fractional qty of TSLA us listed stock? (forgive assumption, but it says you’re in Germany!)

 

[jbcarioca]

With Tesla ramping up, ... I expect the increasing EV deliveries will create Supply demand Imbalance curve for Oil in 2023/2024 similar to what happened in 2014.

Basically Saudi starts panicking seeing the EV adoption and will want to drive US and Canadian Oil producers so that they can survive for longer time selling oil. So, they will flood the oil market with more supply crashing the price of oil. Even though its painful for Saudi, the goal is to create way more pain for US and Canadian producers and drive them out of market. In 2014 oil crashed to $25 per barrel from $100 in matter of months over just 2% of extra supply.

This post reflects conventional thinking which was true until the last decade. Now it is becoming different.
First the plan:

Saudi Arabia making headway with Vision 2030’s clean energy plans

Reports surfaced last week about plans by the California-based Lucid Motors to set up a manufacturing plant in Saudi Arabia as part of its expansion in the region. The plant, which may become Lucid Motors’ Middle Eastern center, will be in line with the Saudi government’s plans to produce...

www.arabnews.com

Then Lucid:

Lucid to start manufacturing electric cars in Saudi Arabia in 2024

The Public Investment Fund (PIF), the Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund, owns a majority stake in Lucid, whose shares are traded on the US NASDAQ Stock Market last month.

saudigazette.com.sa

And Sabic is investing in renewables and batteries:

Sabic

From making cars and planes more fuel-efficient, to helping conserve the world’s water supply and enabling colorful smartphone cases, we find solutions to the challenges of today to help our customers achieve their ambitions and build a better tomorrow.

www.sabic.com

SASO is beginning:

Saudi Arabia gears up to take delivery of electric cars; SASO issues first Certificate of Accreditation

Saudi Arabia gears up to take delivery of electric cars; SASO issues first Certificate of Accreditation

saudigazette.com.sa

So, please, put Saudi Arabia discussion in perspective. It is not, and has for years not been, the stereotype that is so very popular.
That is not in any way ignoring the old ways, the discussion of which is entirely off topic.
The most momentous demonstration of change that helps advance the BEV agenda was the granting of driving licenses for females. That is often ridiculed but that understates what is actually happening.

Full disclosure: I lived and worked in Iran, the UAE, Bahrain and Yemen and working also in/regarding Kuwait, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and Israel. I worked with and had close relations with Iraqis, but never worked in Iraq. I worked for years with Saudi officials and businesses as well as Saudi investors in enterprise that I ran. To the extent that I understand what is happening in the region or in Saudi I am acutely aware that I am definitely not an expert. However I am cognizant of social and religious developments and their influences on economic policy.

My considered opinion is: Beware broad generalizations. They are invariably too superficial, often wrong. Privately I have discussed some of these issues with TMC members. I will not repeat those here because they can be seriously misunderstood. For obvious clues check the country list above.

 

[jhm]

Elon just turned the resume world upside down and I expect to be hired later today.

In no particular order, Elon, these are my exceptional talents.

• Can herd cats
• Went all in TSLA in 2012 and HELD through every single sky is falling event to date without blinking
• Have scored and maintained a safety score of for multiple days

The end.

Can you be more specific about the number of cats you herd?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So, please, put Saudi Arabia discussion in perspective. It is not, and has for years not been, the stereotype that is so very popular.
That is not in any way ignoring the old ways, the discussion of which is entirely off topic.
The most momentous demonstration of change that helps advance the BEV agenda was the granting of driving licenses for females. That is often ridiculed but that understates what is actually happening.

Full disclosure: I lived and worked in Iran, the UAE, Bahrain and Yemen and working also in/regarding Kuwait, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and Israel. I worked with and had close relations with Iraqis, but never worked in Iraq. I worked for years with Saudi officials and businesses as well as Saudi investors in enterprise that I ran. To the extent that I understand what is happening in the region or in Saudi I am acutely aware that I am definitely not an expert. However I am cognizant of social and religious developments and their influences on economic policy.

My considered opinion is: Beware broad generalizations. They are invariably too superficial, often wrong. Privately I have discussed some of these issues with TMC members. I will not repeat those here because they can be seriously misunderstood. For obvious clues check the country list above.

There's an ongoing conversation in the Shorting Oil thread about Saudi motivations and plans. Your perspectives there would be helpful and appreciated!

I would argue the recent moves are less "demonstrations of change" and far more about the give and take in the shadow of the Arab Spring. MBS needs to keep giving literally everyone an extravagant lifestyle via public funds, meanwhile those public funds are dwindling. Giving women the right to drive, or letting people go to movies, is IMO simply done out of desperation to maintain control.....and not having the billions to simply write a check.

In the OPs scenario of a price war around 2024, does the royal family even maintain control after such an action? I highly doubt it. When this current price spike fades, and the market has acquiesced to the fact of global crude demand peak falling definitively between 2019 and 2026......it's all but over.