This day I am thinking that, as other people state, Tesla is much more advanced than even our most optimistic views.
I offer these (not in any special order):
1. The paint shop: the robots seem likely to use far less paint than have the traditional paint shops. Just looking at the videos show very low paint usage. Of course the video array I have seen does not show primer supply. The Grüneheide water usage forecasts has been declining; at least some of that must be in the paint shop.
2. Front casting,rear casting assembly: Total parts count reduces from ~800 to somewhere below 20. There are analyses pending from a proprietary data service I have, and Sandy Munro will manage to tear a Grüneheide or Austin Model Y which will give many specifics. In the meantime, I think these will reduce Robin requirement by at least a dozen or so. That will also make nearly all attachments will self tapping screws, ideal for robotics as well.
3. Battery pack: excluding the 4680 benefits, the design probably ends out saving not only the ~300 pounds Elon spoke of, but act to further reduce parts counts and further adapting to automated assembly and installation. On balance these should reduce parts counts again by at least 20.
4. During the annual shareholder questions Elon mused about reducing factory size by increasing throughput and simplifying all processes. He did not make cost prognostications, but said Fremont would've about 50% more production volume.
5. All of these are yet to be quantified, but even after the first new Y teardowns nearly everyone will have ignored the massive continuous improvement in manufacturing that has total redesigns happening will maintaining stable visual. Key example: Model S refresh.
I asked my best source to estimate the consequences of all this:
1. Paint shop: Probably cheaper to build than traditional shops. Why? Vastly less material needed and construction costs probably half those of traditional paint shops. Operation is likely to use less than 75% the paint typically consumed, many fewer employees (no estimate) while reducing waste by 90% or so. This may decrease total vehicle costs by $150 or more, while saving substantial rework typically needed. There ismore about paint, including the ability to use better (e.g. harder and more resilient) paints than can normally be achieved due to reduced waste and pollution.
2.and 3. The two front and rear castings have been estimated by others at reducing total construction cost by roughly 20%. When combined with the battery pack it is quite reasonable that the entire constructions costs may be reduced by 1/3.
Following the Grüneheide tour and the other revelations recently my sources are quite astonished.
Just for a bit of context, here is Assembly magazines 2020 assembly plant of the year:
Every motorist uses rearview mirrors whenever they get behind the wheel. In fact, most people look at them every few seconds as they drive. However, few ever give those ubiquitous devices much thought.
www.assemblymag.com
They make mirrors, so are only tangentially connected.
In the end my astonished friend suggests that Tesla Grüneheide is set to produce Model Y for less than half what BMW spends for an X1. Frankly I have no idea but I'm positive that the order of magnitude is reasonable.
We all have noted that Tesla has been increasing Free Cash Flow, reducing inventory DOH, and growing far more than 50% per annum. In the process reducing capex!
All that has been happening by huge improvements in manufacturing process and product construction simplicity.
The easiest way to illustrate all these developments within Tesla we can compare the evolution of Model S:
2014 Model S P85D. 4936 pounds weight
2021 Model S Plaid 4941
Just reflect on the same weight for these two. Further the MSRP for mine were almost identical in US$, so no inflation at all.
Now the Model Y is undergoing far higher refinement in less time.
The above discusses costs, but weight reduction is maybe more consequential.
The weight reductions will help allow cheaper battery solutions, maybe even the new CATL Sodium ion cells. That alleviates supply issues and reduces costs further. Presumably 4680 form can be used with a wide variety of chemistries, thus reducing costs again.
After Grüneheide I think I have been understating the Tesla growth trajectory.
