Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

I think someone should do a case study on Tsla and the disturbance it has caused that rippled through the entire market. There has never been such a high profile company that increased so much and so fast in its marketcap in the history of Wall Street. This single phenomenon has made people's careers(check youtube subs), made analysts into clowns, gave fraudulent companies credibility, and drove the entire market to ATH and then crashed it too because of all the nonsensical search for the next Tesla.

Many companies x10 every year. But those are hidden microcap companies no one heard about so therefore it caused zero drama in the market.

That's a good idea! And to think it likely only gets more bizarre as things progress.

 

[nativewolf]

Next step: eliminate the steering shaft. No reason for a physical connection anyway, other than tradition. If 'fly by wire' works for Airbus and Boeing without controversy (it did have some with the first FBW, the A320. Now zero issues.

Automotive steering is really easy. The yoke is obviously intended to be used with that, so variable sensitivity can be easily done. Why so slow? After all Steer by Wire would be cheaper by ~$200 per vehicle, provide better steering control and allow faster and more accurate accident avoidance.

Regulatory holdups? Great question.

 

[RobDickinson]

When I look at all the loading/unloading docks at Berlin I wonder if that factory might be able to breathe better than Austin.

Does anyone know the material flow plans/patterns at Austin?

Austin has them around the outside and has a road through the middle for trucks to drive down and deliver afik.

 

[lafrisbee]

I was hoping someone would bring this up. From the world of sailing, I can say that the three main ways of connecting the helm (wheel) and the rudder are rod, cable or hydraulic (with +/- steering by electric wire perhaps available on superyachts - I don't know). The best "feel" comes from rod; the worst - i.e., the helmsman feels disconnected - is from hydraulic (unless supremely tweaked...a difficult task). So I wonder whether the "easy" (ha!) task of flying an airplane through +/- limitless 3D space may be fine for fly-by-wire, but when one has the 1D-to-2D task of handling an automobile, with a slight third dimension in the bumps etc of the road, drive-by-wire might, it seems to me, be an insipind, uncomfortable experience. Thoughts?

Don't get me wrong. I like the reference.
But "steering" a sailboat under sail (you did mean under sail?) is the extreme of steering, Changes in every nautical condition while attempting to stay on course for days not only 1D 2D 3D...and put as many other "D"s as you like for the vagaries of the sea AND air... Steering a sailboat requires an even greater "feel" than piloting an aircraft in all but the extreme cases because of how slowly it all plays out, and how deceiving the sea can be.
I am not saying steering a sailboat is more important than steering an aircraft, just that the feel required to steer a sailboat at the highest level is much more of a need in order to achieve the highest level of performance.

 

[EVMeister]

Thank goodness the weekend is nearly over...

 

[Rarity]

When I look at all the loading/unloading docks at Berlin I wonder if that factory might be able to breathe better than Austin.

Does anyone know the material flow plans/patterns at Austin?

Some of it is pretty simple and as you would expect. But especially General Assembly logistics is still a mystery, due to the low number of loading docks.

It seems very likely (by the process of elimination) that the central corridor will be used as a logistics hub, with containers stacked inside. But we don't know for certain. We should learn more soon, given that the central corridor is coming together right now.

 

[Thekiwi]

Elon’s PayPal experience has forever haunted him (He was fired as CEO while on honeymoon in Australia). He’ll never let his controlling interest in SpaceX drop below 51%. Hence it will never possibly go public. However, Starlink may be spun out as a public company in an IPO.

I wonder if the suggested “X.COM“ company that people float every now and then (all of Elons companies under one entity) would actually work better if it was Elon’s personal holdings only (eg his ownership stakes in Tesla, SpaceX, BoringCo, NeurelLink)

Elon could retain 50.1% ownership of X.COM, and offer the other 49.9% to investors (probably still as a private company), which means he would still have the same control over his current ownership stakes.

The value of Elon’s holdings is approximately $200 Billion, so by offering up to 49.9% of the company to investors, he has the choice of either:
a) cashing out $100 Billion
b) not cashing out anything, and instead adding $200 Billion in new cash to x.com - raising its value to $400 Billion thereby allowing Elon to invest $200 Billion into increasing the size of the ownership stakes in the existing companies and/or creating or buying new companies.
c) a mix of a & b

 

[Thekiwi]

I think of ARK like a venture capital fund. Venture capitalists will invest in 20 (usually more) things they have reason to believe might explode. If one does well, they're good. If 2 or 3 do well, you're golden. 17 will crash and burn. That's ok, because the 2 or 3 more than make up for it. I don't expect Cathie to be right every time. I hope she's right on 2 or 3 companies.

All of the companies Ark is investing in are publicly listed, meaning they should have already passed the VC stage of investing risk. However thanks to SPAC promoters, previous VCs are cashing out early by foisting companies onto the public market that haven’t passed the normal success/failure stage yet.

I don’t mind the fact that companies are coming to the market earlier, enabling normal investors access to younger companies, but what I do mind is that these companies are coming to market at valuations that would normally only be given for companies that have proven they can succeed, rather than being valued as the speculative “pre-revenue“ companies that they are.

 

[MC3OZ]

Some of it is pretty simple and as you would expect. But especially General Assembly logistics is still a mystery, due to the low number of loading docks.

It seems very likely (by the process of elimination) that the central corridor will be used as a logistics hub, with containers stacked inside. But we don't know for certain. We should learn more soon, given that the central corridor is coming together right now.

Yes, the central corridors at both ends have high ceilings and it looks like a provision for bridge cranes, I did wonder of those cranes could carry and stack containers.

There is also a ramp in the GA section trucks could possible drive up...

The loading docks in the GA section also don't loko errantly closed to me, employee parking would need to be relocated if some of them were opened.

 

[22522]

Yes, the central corridors at both ends have high ceilings and it looks like a provision for bridge cranes, I did wonder of those cranes could carry and stack containers.

There is also a ramp in the GA section trucks could possible drive up...

The loading docks in the GA section also don't loko errantly closed to me, employee parking would need to be relocated if some of them were opened.

... If the robots pick and place right off the trucks I guess you don't need a loading dock on the outside, just a hole to drive a truck through. Trucks would index feed a robot right at the edge of the line. Same robot picks off truck and places on the chassis - no handoffs (or automated waste). Containers would need side access like beer trucks.

 

[Wicket]

Is the paintshop working in Berlin? I'm looking forward to an analysis of how superior it is to the world famously bad California one. They ought to change Fremont to the cybertruck factory just so they can avoid the paintshop.

 

[RobDickinson]

Paint shop in Berlin is state of the art, I assume they've been running and testing it.

 

[MikeC]

Since there was talk about Burry, sounds like he’s downplaying his TSLA short now:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1447332410023161856

 

[navguy12]

Next step: eliminate the steering shaft. No reason for a physical connection anyway, other than tradition. If 'fly by wire' works for Airbus and Boeing without controversy (it did have some with the first FBW, the A320. Now zero issues.

Automotive steering is really easy. The yoke is obviously intended to be used with that, so variable sensitivity can be easily done. Why so slow? After all Steer by Wire would be cheaper by ~$200 per vehicle, provide better steering control and allow faster and more accurate accident avoidance.

Why so slow? Same reason we still have outside review mirrors. Bureaucratic inertia.

 

[MC3OZ]

Is the paintshop working in Berlin? I'm looking forward to an analysis of how superior it is to the world famously bad California one. They ought to change Fremont to the cybertruck factory just so they can avoid the paintshop.

If they make a smaller Cybertruck, it might make sense to do that at Fremont, and move out Model Y.

But it probably makes more sense to build the smaller Cynbertruck at Austin, and build a new paintshop at Fremont..

If there are fancy new colors, they definitely want them for the Model S/X and Roadster.

I think the new paintshop is water based, and hence lower emissions?

 

[Drumheller]

If they make a smaller Cybertruck, it might make sense to do that at Fremont, and move out Model Y.

But it probably makes more sense to build the smaller Cynbertruck at Austin, and build a new paintshop at Fremont..

If there are fancy new colors, they definitely want them for the Model S/X and Roadster.

I think the new paintshop is water based, and hence lower emissions?

I think Austin is setting up to be the only cybertruck location. Steel supply nearby and a 8000 ton press.

 

[Gigapress]

I don't know why people talk about this happening. None of the current fleet are suited for Robotaxi. Robotaxi will be purpose built, and surely the first factory will be sized for a 2 million production rate. It will have a single powered side opening door, non operating windows, no rider operable controls and a fixed environmental control state. A battery pack half the current minimum size and initial cost of below $15k USD.
For the initial Urban positioning, anything more is uselessly excessive.
It will be nothing like current human controlled vehicles.

A customized vehicle would be superior for robotaxis, but existing S3XY models will still be adequate for robotaxi. We've already seen Teslas used as human piloted taxis. I expect the steering can be deactivated when in robotaxi mode, or just removed with some kind of cap plugging the hole.

They're still worth far more as robotaxis than private cars. Why would they wait for the custom AEV to ramp up manufacturing instead of just rolling out Tesla Network as soon as possible? Elon's comments about turning your vehicle into a robotaxi overnight by flipping a bit indicate that this is the plan.

 

[Singuy]

Since there was talk about Burry, sounds like he’s downplaying his TSLA short now:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1447332410023161856

Which means he already cashed out of his position? That's the only way to play this game which is to cash out the day of.

 

[mongo]

Paint shop in Berlin is state of the art, I assume they've been running and testing it.

Is the paintshop working in Berlin? I'm looking forward to an analysis of how superior it is to the world famously bad California one. They ought to change Fremont to the cybertruck factory just so they can avoid the paintshop.

More layers
New colors
Dedicated door openers

Some distance shots:
Tesla Giga Berlin Displays 2 New Brilliant Colors for German-Made Model Y

 

[nativewolf]

Which means he already cashed out of his position? That's the only way to play this game which is to cash out the day of.

That would be my guess. He shorted it about New Years or so and then it fell a few hundred and he could get out with a big profit and then short Ark which looks to me to be a much better short. I'd love to hear an interview where he gave his insight on valuation of Tesla.