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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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The Accountant
Active Member
Here is my logic on finished vehicle shipping: If production is down at every OEM, that frees up car carriers and RoRo ships for Tesla.
What's wrong with that logic? What could cause vehicle shipping constraints when demand for carriers and RoRos are down?
"Port congestion is still very much with us. Not just at one or two ports. And not just on the West Coast. Of the nation's 10 busiest ports by volume, it is estimated that at least seven face congestion regularly. The causes are varied and complex -- labor disruptions, cargo surges from big ships, infrastructure needs, marine terminal productivity, and equipment shortages, among other causes."
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Many moons ago (last century) I had the pleasure of porting compute intensive engineering analysis software to many of the advanced HPC architectures of the time (Cray etc). They were a mixture of SIMD (single instruction multiple data) and MIMD (multiple instruction multiple data) hardware. I rewatched the Dojo section of AI day yesterday and was 'triggered' by the slide showing the results of Dojo training miniGPT. Some extremely lucky person (people?) is most likely currently engaged on tuning the training algorithms to work efficiently on this new architecture on the 'bench' rig they currently have whilst the operational system is being built. For people in the field it just doesn't get any better than that.
I can only reiterate what James Douma said several months ago 'guys working at the leading edge will move to Tesla just to be able to work on this hardware'.
I am sure this is also true for the guys at Tesla working in vehicle design, onboard software, manufacturing, enterprise planning systems, and battery development, and this just reinforces what has been said many times on this thread about Tesla's ability to attract the best talent being their largest competitive 'moat'.
P.S. for the other 'oldies' here, who remembers the Apollo computers buzz phrase 'the network is the computer'. Dojo is this writ large.
I can only reiterate what James Douma said several months ago 'guys working at the leading edge will move to Tesla just to be able to work on this hardware'.
I am sure this is also true for the guys at Tesla working in vehicle design, onboard software, manufacturing, enterprise planning systems, and battery development, and this just reinforces what has been said many times on this thread about Tesla's ability to attract the best talent being their largest competitive 'moat'.
P.S. for the other 'oldies' here, who remembers the Apollo computers buzz phrase 'the network is the computer'. Dojo is this writ large.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This is the next step in a Tesla partnership we've first heard about back in March:
Here's the October update on the signing of the nickel supply contract:
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/TRQST4FZ7VIZ7E5GNZVZHJYB4Q.jpg)
New Caledonia's Prony to supply nickel to Tesla in multi-year deal
Prony Resources said on Wednesday Tesla Inc had agreed to purchase around 42,000 tonnes of nickel in a multi-year deal - a pact that is set to make the New Caledonian miner a key supplier of the metal to the U.S. electric car maker.
www.reuters.com
Its especially encouraging to see this nickel mine is retiring its coal power plant and going solar:
"Prony will also choose in December a partner to develop a new electricity plant for the site to support a goal to halve its carbon emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2040, Beurrier said.
"The future power plant will be solar-based and replace a current coal-fired installation, he added."
Cheers!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
... which is why Tesla is shipping cars to Southern Europe through the
Improvise. Adapt. Overcome. The Mission is all-important.
Cheers!
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This is the first time I have understood port hold ups in more than a superficial way. Thank you.
I found this tweet in relation to the news that VW will have to lay off up to 30.000 workers:
The article itself is paywalled, so I can't verify it, but it's news to me that VW is considering casting bodies from one piece.
The whole thread is very informative.
The article itself is paywalled, so I can't verify it, but it's news to me that VW is considering casting bodies from one piece.
The whole thread is very informative.
Yep they have been investing at the edge for a state fund.Not bad
Alaska cashed out 75% of its GameStop stock last quarter - and boosted its Tesla bet by 5%
Alaska cashed out 75% of its GameStop stock last quarter - and boosted its Tesla bet by 5% — Business Insider Australia
The US state's revenue arm sold about 29,000 GameStop shares for around $5 million, thanks to the meme stock's outperformance this year.apple.news
100 house members is less than half the democratic membership. I'd say that is the kiss of death. I'm not going to be surprised to see almost all the EV credit gone.I didn't see this posted. Looks like some significant support for the UAW addendum in the EV bill.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/APUSITMGDBMELBHMC4Y45GD5MY.jpg)
More than 100 U.S. lawmakers urge Pelosi to back union EV tax credit
More than 100 U.S. House lawmakers on Tuesday urged Speaker Nancy Pelosi to keep a $4,500 tax credit incentive for union-built electric vehicles (EV) in a massive spending bill.
Is that not basically a direct statement that UAW leads to an uncompetitive enterprise? I'm surprised he wasn't a bit more clever with this and frame it as simply supporting unions which are platonically good things not to be questioned because of how much they did for labor back in the 1890s.
But let's work with the premise. It seems to me $4500 far exceeds the actual assembly costs, If it's 100 combined man-hours that's 45$/hour. Does anyone have a better estimate for how much actual UAW labor is required per vehicle?
This continues to be an absolutely absurd estimate. At let's say an average of $8,000 that's predicting ~2m uses of this subsidy over 10 years. seriously wtf?
mltv
Member
I don’t have a clear benchmark either way since this wasn’t an explicit yea/nay vote of all involved. But I think it more likely that neutral members on the topic would allow it to pass through to final vote without explicitly joining this particular letter. Just my intuition.
Here are two pieces of information previously communicated, but here right beside each other.
First: Spending on R&D compared to advertising per car for several major automakers:
Next: Safety testing that goes beyond the minimum requirements as defined by standard tests. In some companies the goal is good enough. Tesla seems different. Safety testing is well explained here.
Many here will look at the image and the video and say "the decision is obvious."
Some not here will think, "I need collateral support for my decision. The chance of a wreck is low. I am going for the company that put the oil covered BMW bumper in a bed at the Super Bowl!"
Elon is appealing to those people directly with the Bezos tweets, at a much lower cost.
Edit: there was a tweet link above and other information from this thread... so this is a credited meta study. Nothing new except the two items closely communicated.
First: Spending on R&D compared to advertising per car for several major automakers:
Next: Safety testing that goes beyond the minimum requirements as defined by standard tests. In some companies the goal is good enough. Tesla seems different. Safety testing is well explained here.
Many here will look at the image and the video and say "the decision is obvious."
Some not here will think, "I need collateral support for my decision. The chance of a wreck is low. I am going for the company that put the oil covered BMW bumper in a bed at the Super Bowl!"
Elon is appealing to those people directly with the Bezos tweets, at a much lower cost.
Edit: there was a tweet link above and other information from this thread... so this is a credited meta study. Nothing new except the two items closely communicated.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Oh yes, that's right, Koper is 26 km South of Trieste (I get all my Adriatic paradise ports get muddled up...)
Here's from my Bookmarks:
Thanks for the reminder.Cheers!
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White House: Walmart, FedEx, UPS to go 24/7 to address supply bottlenecks
Major goods carriers Walmart, FedEx and UPS will move to working 24 hours a day, seven days a week in order to address the global supply chain bottlenecks, the White House announced on Wednesday.&n…
thehill.com
The traditional TMC authority on Europe/UK shippings is @Mr Miserable in this thread
2021 Shipping Movements
In my net wanderings and reviewing this thread, I of course came across Wu Wa's YT vid of the Triton Ace being loaded with M3s, but didn't notice anyone identifying the pier being used. So just in case its useful I've clipped a screenshot of it from Marine Traffic and also noted that its the...
teslamotorsclub.com
Kotor has become a significant vehicle destination from Shanghai, not for Tesla until now.
The overall point is that Tesla Shanghai is trying hard to find any way to minimize Shanghai port delays, including use of new berths there. Tesla has been recently using every less-clogged port they can find. of course that includes workarounds for the impossibly backlogged port of Los Angeles/Long Beach, which impedes parts and vehicles.
Thus far it seems Tesla is the only major manufacturer of anything that has not had major stoppages, partly because they seem to have almost superhuman logistics management. Supplier problems are obviously mounting.
The Accountant
Active Member
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The traditional TMC authority on Europe/UK shippings is @Mr Miserable in this thread
Posts there discuss use of Kotor as a new and seemingly smooth port serving Italy, Eastern Germany, Austria etc. There is no mention of Trieste that I can find, but of course Kotor and Trieste are nearly contiguous anyway.
2021 Shipping Movements
In my net wanderings and reviewing this thread, I of course came across Wu Wa's YT vid of the Triton Ace being loaded with M3s, but didn't notice anyone identifying the pier being used. So just in case its useful I've clipped a screenshot of it from Marine Traffic and also noted that its the...
Kotor has become a significant vehicle destination from Shanghai, not for Tesla until now. Thus several seemingly well informed people think Teslas have been arriving through Kotor also. However I have no proof of that. The Tesla store in Ljubljana probably knows what ports are being used, since they are by far the closest Tesla store to either fo these ports, I have been there but have no contacts there.
The overall point is that Tesla Shanghai is trying hard to find any way to minimize Shanghai port delays, including use of new berths there. Tesla has been recently using every less-clogged port they can find. of course that includes workarounds for the impossibly backlogged port of Los Angeles/Long Beach, which impedes parts and vehicles.
Thus far it seems Tesla is the only major manufacturer of anything that has not had major stoppages, partly because they seem to have almost superhuman logistics management. Supplier problems are obviously mounting.
You're right! I corrected my post #295,201 upthread already.
Trieste is 26 km north of Kopor, so that's the general area. Big advantage is it saves ~6 days vs shipping time in transit to Zeebrugge, and if the cars are being delivered in Italy, Austria, or surrounding countries the road shipping costs will be less as well.
Tesla is brilliantly navigating these logistics challenges. Literally.
Cheers!
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