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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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People ask what the bear analysts are missing. This article kinda highlights that. People think that this thing (1 seat 3 wheeler) is a Tesla competitor. By that logic I guess my gas generator is competition to BMW.

Tesla Competitor Electra Meccanica Soars After Analyst Says It's a Buy

tesla competitor.PNG
 
Model S & X demand don't seem very strong in Norway, but the 3 more than makes up for it with ~13% better than previous best month and ~6% better than previous best quarter -- and neither the month nor quarter is over yet. All I wish is to have this sort of data for more locations, even if it was not quite so precise.

Tesla Registration Stats
 
Model S & X demand don't seem very strong in Norway, but the 3 more than makes up for it with ~13% better than previous best month and ~6% better than previous best quarter -- and neither the month nor quarter is over yet. All I wish is to have this sort of data for more locations, even if it was not quite so precise.

Tesla Registration Stats

Also note another remarkable thing: Q1 is a seasonally weak quarter in Norway too - which makes these records even more impressive.
 
The S/X delivery numbers are worrisome. Any theories?
  • In the US one can argue the tax cliff helped to pull the demand to last Q. Possibly same with some EU countries that I heard.
  • The price reduction and China opening should have help offset some of the impact. But doesn’t seem enough.
  • Other issue could be people holding for potential refresh. I think last year Electrk or someone sent a fake (or denied by Elon) news on potential refresh this time around.
  • But the big question is about model 3 canibalization
 
I agree that there are a lot of opportunities. I also don't see anything wrong in the whole episode of closing/not closing store and delay price hike. Traditional auto OEMs do that all the time with their dealerships.
In short term, the Q1 delivery/production number would be quite telling. It would be better if we can know more details of the distribution between regions/trims.
I don't think it would be telling of much other than Tesla's current production/logistics capacity.

This is a first quarter of Europe/China deliveries with a lot of queued up demand plus the first quarter of SR production.

I believe they said SR arrives to Europe 6 months later(and China will produce their own in 6-8 months) so that makes it look like there's enough demand in N.A. to consume 2 quarters worths of SRs. So, Q3 might be a first quarter in N.A. where the pre-existing demand is satisfied, so they have enough spare capacity to send SRs to Europe.
IF there's a slow down of demand in N.A., then Europe will likely consume all the Q3 SR production.

So, I think Q4 is actually the first quarter where pre-existing demand is satisfied and we're looking at a new/sustained demand. Which is not a constant and may grow per any additional demand levers engaged or marketing by M3 penetration starting to give results.
 
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Stock rises $5 in an hour, with no reason for us to cheer, because it’s a robotic response to an interest rate decision.

When the stock rises $5 in an hour because the market has a tipping point epiphany that Tesla are kicking ass, with no competition in sight, with margins rising, with product improving, with CAGR off the chart, then corks pop.