Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggr]

How are the up front costs funded for Boring Company projects such as the Loop to O'Hare transit line, the LV Convention Center people mover, and the DC to NYC transit system?

I believe Elon and friends provided all the seed capital needed.

 

[Pras]

The 3 is selling so well that I think any worries about the larger models is more than offset by the “Tesla Families” effect. People buy the 3 and just love it. A percentage of those people at some point find they need a bigger (possibly additional) car, but the thought of buying anything other than Tesla is anathema. The 3 thus feeds demand for S and X.

Thanks kindly for your *concern*.

Thanks. That is possible theory for future potential / prospect.

PS: I am concerned for myself, not you as I don’t know what are your stakes in Tesla. For me sleepless nights are very common.

 

[ggr]

re no response yet to Tesla’s request, I am cautiously optimistic that the Judge is in the

“the only way what I’m seeing from these two parties makes sense is if there’s much more going on here than I thought. I need to dig deeper.”

This is what happened when the NYT Public Editor stepped into trying to resolve tension with Tesla and NYT writer John Broder. A few days we heard nothing from pub editor as she dug deeper. fwiw, in that case the arbiter moved from siding reflexively with Broder (as she said herself was her initial inclination) to realizing Musk/Tesla had legitimate points.

... and then she sided reflexively with Broder.

 

[Duffer]

Notalawyernotalawyernotalawyer....

Now, I am not a lawyer but even I know that your nightmare of

is not something that happens in the real world.

I probably ought to mention that I'm not a lawyer.

He doth protest too much...
Agreed, if we're talking about what's normal. However, I think that you would agree that regarding Tesla/Musk very few things are controlled by normalcy. The apparently amateurish (rushed?) filing by the SEC begs the question of motive. Is it merely that someone's knickers are twisted and decided that they were going to prove a point? or Does someone have connections to one of the industries that Musk is disrupting? Either way, this is a low risk high gain move by the SEC. Especially since they are going after someone who has constant negative press (FUD) so there won't be any public outcry.

If you were the judge trying to monitor Elon's behavior on Twitter just remember he agreed to pre approved tweets and now he clearly stated he wasn't having tweets reviewed ahead of time. That's a violation. The judge will have to do something. Her hands are tied. At the very least they will force Tesla to show evidence that the tweets are being pre-approved. I would if I was the judge. I would reign him in because of his belligerent attitude.

IRRC, the referenced tweets happened after the agreement but before the settlement went into effect.

Agree. Materiality is the issue. SEC seems to want to stifle the communication of even immaterial information. They know that they can pressure Musk with suits that may actually have no merit whatsoever. They don't have to win this case; bad publicity alone is enough to force Musk in to compliance. So the question is, what would be motivating such overreach? Whose interests would be served?

Following the money is almost always enlightening.

 

[RobStark]

I would expect the Model 3 to Osborne S&X in Europe because both of these cars are a little bit on the "extravagant" side per European standards.

The Model 3 and Model Y, on the other hand, are a perfect fit there.​

Model 3 is no longer a future product therefore it is no longer "osborning" but cannibalizing.

Model Y may very well Osborne Model X and Model S.

 

[neroden]

I am very confused by all of this and have seen a wide range of projections

From The Tesla Registration statement it says

directors and executive officers may pledge their Company stock…as collateral for loans and investments, provided that the maximum aggregate loan or investment amount collateralized by such pledged stock does not exceed twenty-five percent (25%) of the total value of the pledged stock.

That then make people assert the idea that his borrowing and margin calls would be much higher as stated here

it seems reasonable to guess that his current loans total approximately $800 million, which means—according to the new proxy—they’d need to be collateralized by $3.2 billion in Tesla shares. As the proxy notes Musk has currently pledged 13,774,897 of his 37,853,041 shares to support those loans, it implies that at a share price below $232.30 (assuming a current balance of $800 million),

To me, as an investor, long or short, knowing this number is the most important piece of information possible

Uh, you're missing something obvious. He can pledge more shares. Or pledge SpaceX shares.

Just by pledging more TSLA shares, Musk is fine down to a stock price of $84.54 per share. (Well, since the loan size keeps going up as interest accrues, it would have to be a bit more than that, but $100/share would be fine.) And then there's SpaceX shares he can borrow against.

 

[jerry33]

Get states to pass laws restricting bicycles to side walks ONLY ! /S

That's very dangerous to the bicyclist. The correct answer is proper training for cyclists. There information available on times and costs from your local bike club (they are actually very similar to motorcycle classes).

 

[tinm]

People ask what the bear analysts are missing. This article kinda highlights that. People think that this thing (1 seat 3 wheeler) is a Tesla competitor. By that logic I guess my gas generator is competition to BMW.

Tesla Competitor Electra Meccanica Soars After Analyst Says It's a Buy

View attachment 388553

Nah this just proves the clickbait rule that if a news story is about electric cars, it needs to have Tesla in the headline, even if the story is about a weirdmobile and isn't about Tesla. This is editor b.s. to get you to click.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Yeah, people aren't paying attention. It was expected that S&X demand would go down when the price was raised by eliminating the 75D variants. (Not to mention that demand is down naturally at the start of every year.) That pushed people from the most popular Model S 75D to the Model 3 line.

So all is going according to plan.

Purely a guess here, but you’d expect the margins on the 75D to be on the low side. So it’s possible that the margins on the higher optioned Model 3s equaled or exceeded those on the 75D, hence the change.

 

[neroden]

I think Ron Barron also said they have 60 days payment terms with suppliers vs. delivering cars within 2 weeks these days (save for Europe and China but even that may fit into the 60 days).

I think China was 18 days from Tesla Factory to the port + whatever it takes within China; call it 32 days. Europe was a bit longer; might be as much as 40 days. Mind you, suppliers have to deliver before the car is manufactured, so add a week. Still, deliveries to *everywhere* should be under 60 days.

So maybe supplier payments are less of a concern? Certainly not zero but this mitigates that effect. Labor costs on the other hand are sometimes paid every 2 weeks in the US.

 

[Tenable]

It does look like S&X demand has reduced a lot because of 3.

If we think back about how a lot of people spent a lot more than they normally would to get S&X - this shouldn't be surprising. Tesla needs to refresh S&X.

I ordered a P3D, I think the 3 is a great car. But I really wasn't that excited to order it. If the 4 year warranty on my S were not about to lapse I would not be purchasing now. I would have preferred an X or perhaps an S. But knowing that the charge rates are inferior and assuming that they will be forced to refresh at some point in the next 12 months I did not want to pay only to be sad when the refresh happens. Now, I follow this company obsessively, I assume I am in the minority that are aware of these things. But perhaps I am wrong, I am curious how many people are waiting just as I am.

With that said, when they do refresh the X, I am likely to grab one for the wife. If TSLA ever goes up, perhaps I'll grab a R2 for myself.

 

[Tenable]

Purely a guess here, but you’d expect the margins on the 75D to be on the low side. So it’s possible that the margins on the higher optioned Model 3s equaled or exceeded those on the 75D, hence the change.

I'd expect a premium LR AWD M3 has much better margins than a 75D and a P3D far better still.

 

[SteveG3]

... and then she sided reflexively with Broder.

didn’t want to write a longer post. did she come to what I would consider a deeply researched & utterly even handed position? no. did she come to realize that the NYT reporter had not met standards/Tesla and Musk had valid points? Yes. She put time into it, including some saving face for her employer (NYT) & colleague... but far better then her initial siding with Broder.

Unlike Pub Editor & NYT, Judge is not an employee of SEC. Hopefully Judge’s research goes deeper & her approach is as even handed as possible.

 

[neroden]

I argue that you do yourself a disservice, and we all do when applying a purely political litmus test to news sources.

I believe WSJ to be a credible news source with a strong conservative bias.

You are incorrect about this. They're not a credible news source any more.

The WSJ used to be a credible news source with a surprisingly *liberal* (anti-CEO) bias on the news pages -- coupled with a blatantly dishonest ultra-right-wing editorial page which would falsify quotes and lie about government statistics.

When Murdoch bought the WSJ, he allowed the editorial page criminals to run rampant across the news pages. Now you can't trust anything they publish.

They still have some good reporters, but they're surrounded by proven liars and you can't tell which is which. There are individual WSJ reporters who are credible, but the paper as a whole is disinformation.

I consider the Economist to be a great source with a centrist/moderate/right,

The Economist is a decent and credible source. So is the Financial Times.

 

[neroden]

Why is Ireland such an outlier?

GDP per capita behind only Switzerland,Norway and Iceland but EV market share of just .7%

Tesla currently doesn't have a presence in Iceland but does so in Ireland.

Irish GDP is fake; it's mostly tax evasion shenanigans, not real production. Ireland's poorer than it looks on paper.

 

[DurandalAI]

I'd expect a premium LR AWD M3 has much better margins than a 75D and a P3D far better still.

Not only are the margins better, but the increased scale of production on shared components makes the margin better on the lower margin Model 3s... In every way, Tesla would rather sell a Model 3 than a Model S.

 

[electrichapp]

Those with $$$ will buy the S and X.
Those with less will buy the 3 and Y.
If i win the lotto or tsla goes 10x, will definitely buy the X. Falcon wing baby!

Wanted to add shares when dipped around 266, but will make tsla really big part of portfolio so didn't pull the trigger.

 

[neroden]

re no response yet to Tesla’s request, I am cautiously optimistic that the Judge is in the

“the only way what I’m seeing from these two parties makes sense is if there’s much more going on here than I thought. I need to dig deeper.”

This is what happened when the NYT Public Editor stepped into trying to resolve tension with Tesla and NYT writer John Broder. A few days we heard nothing from pub editor as she dug deeper. fwiw, in that case the arbiter moved from siding reflexively with Broder (as she said herself was her initial inclination) to realizing Musk/Tesla had legitimate points.

This is my gut feel as well. I don't know what she's going to do to dig deeper. Hopefully she'll look into whether the "Electric cars don't need oil changes" tweet was really new information (heh).

She probably also has other cases on her caseload and may be clearing the easy ones off the desk, having realized that this one is harder than she expected.

 

[neroden]

Thank you, This is helpful I am not sure of the full dynamics but I do find your reading solid that his unpledged shares will be useful not as further borrow capital but certainly as further collateral against any margin issues. The recent house mortgages concerned me but that was based on a need for additional capital, whereas here you show strength as ample additional collateral Thank you Sir/Maam

I believe the house mortgages were basically a way for Musk to cut his interest rate. He can get a lower rate on mortgages than on loans against stock.

 

[Causalien]

I ordered a P3D, I think the 3 is a great car. But I really wasn't that excited to order it. If the 4 year warranty on my S were not about to lapse I would not be purchasing now. I would have preferred an X or perhaps an S. But knowing that the charge rates are inferior and assuming that they will be forced to refresh at some point in the next 12 months I did not want to pay only to be sad when the refresh happens. Now, I follow this company obsessively, I assume I am in the minority that are aware of these things. But perhaps I am wrong, I am curious how many people are waiting just as I am.

With that said, when they do refresh the X, I am likely to grab one for the wife. If TSLA ever goes up, perhaps I'll grab a R2 for myself.

The R2 is looking further out of reach for me now. In BC, I'll need about 1 mil cad in pretax money to buy an R2.

Funny what 50% income tax and a 25% luxury car tax can do.