Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jw934]

Notice how that news said “100k initial order?”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452699647609344002

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA trading briskly in the early Pre-market w. strong macro environment:

Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
15,595.75 +100.00 (+0.65%)
As of 5:30AM EDT. Market open.

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Oct 26, 2021 05:37 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$1026.4 +1.54 (+0.15%)
Pre-Market Volume	125,063
Pre-Market High	$1038.18 (04:00:50 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$1023.25 (04:21:50 AM)

 

[elasalle]

VW China had 500k spare ID.4 to sell this year.

Can probably deliver 80k ID.4 through 2021.

Imagine the fleet nightmare on software updates

 

[traxila]

Figure we have had some good news and optimism here lately, might as well keep it going as to why our renewable transition is unstoppable and gathering speed. Shocking to read an article where I agree on every single point. Well almost… don’t want to get political.

The unstoppably good news about clean energy

Kingsmill Bond of Carbon Tracker says the transition to renewables is inevitable based on sheer economics.

www.canarymedia.com

 

[ZachF]

Tesla's revenue in 2025 can potentially match Apple's annual revenue with 5M cars + whatever energy can contribute. Wallstreet will break if Tesla's growth is still 50% with the operating margin at 20%+. Like how are people suppose to value that?

$600b revenue and $120b profit in 2030. (My estimates).

Today’s Tesla price is 8x 2030 earnings, compared with ~20 for the overall market

 

[Cobbler]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452942123364491267

 

[RobStark]

Hyundai, which together with affiliate Kia Corp (000270.KS) is among the world's top 10 automakers by sales, reported a net profit of 1.3 trillion won ($1.10 billion) for the July-September quarter.

Hyundai Motor's Q3 profit misses estimates as chip shortage takes a toll

South Korea's Hyundai Motor Co slightly missed analysts' profit estimates as the global chip crisis drove down vehicle shipments and it said it expects it will take a long time to get back to normal chip supplies.

www.reuters.com

 

[matejpi]

$600b revenue and $120b profit in 2030. (My estimates).

Today’s Tesla price is 8x 2030 earnings, compared with ~20 for the overall market

Do you mean that today's Tesla stock price is 8x 2030 earnings meaning "overvalued by 8x"? Or do you mean that if you take ~20 factor for the overall market, Tesla still has a good portion of the growth in the next decade?

I find myself a little amused, by the numbers of some members here. Is it possible to have an annual production of 20 million cars? This means almost 2x the number of cars produced by Volkswagen (cca 9 million) or Toyota (cca 10 million) today. This number combines trucks and cars together. And that this number will be achieved by a couple of car models (SEXY + cybertruck + roadster + "small tesla")? How does this expectation bode with the "lower number of cars needed when FSD will take over" narrative?

I am not saying that Tesla is not able to achieve that, but is this a realistic expectation and not some la-la land fairtale?

 

[WarpedOne]

but is this a realistic expectation and not some la-la land fairtal

The right question is "what is the valid basis for judging what is realistic and what is wishful thinking".
The moment one mentions VW / Toyota builds so and so, he's reasoning is based upon history and analogies, he is already wrong.

 

[jerry33]

Do you mean that today's Tesla stock price is 8x 2030 earnings meaning "overvalued by 8x"? Or do you mean that if you take ~20 factor for the overall market, Tesla still has a good portion of the growth in the next decade?

I find myself a little amused, by the numbers of some members here. Is it possible to have an annual production of 20 million cars? This means almost 2x the number of cars produced by Volkswagen (cca 9 million) or Toyota (cca 10 million) today. This number combines trucks and cars together. And that this number will be achieved by a couple of car models (SEXY + cybertruck + roadster + "small tesla")? How does this expectation bode with the "lower number of cars needed when FSD will take over" narrative?

I am not saying that Tesla is not able to achieve that, but is this a realistic expectation and not some la-la land fairtale?

Everyone thought that 500,000 a year by 2020 was a la-la land fairy tail in 2013. Betting against Elon is a sure way to become less wealthy.

 

[jamaatta]

Everyone thought that 500,000 a year by 2020 was a la-la land fairy tail in 2013. Betting against Elon is a sure way to become less wealthy.

Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd (NASDAQ:TSLA)

The sell-side is forecasting that Tesla will sell 500,000 cars in 2020.

seekingalpha.com

 

[traxila]

Do you mean that today's Tesla stock price is 8x 2030 earnings meaning "overvalued by 8x"? Or do you mean that if you take ~20 factor for the overall market, Tesla still has a good portion of the growth in the next decade?

I find myself a little amused, by the numbers of some members here. Is it possible to have an annual production of 20 million cars? This means almost 2x the number of cars produced by Volkswagen (cca 9 million) or Toyota (cca 10 million) today. This number combines trucks and cars together. And that this number will be achieved by a couple of car models (SEXY + cybertruck + roadster + "small tesla")? How does this expectation bode with the "lower number of cars needed when FSD will take over" narrative?

I am not saying that Tesla is not able to achieve that, but is this a realistic expectation and not some la-la land fairtale?

You never know where you are going until you get there.

Your points are valid, IMO. How is Tesla going to accomplish the unprecedented? Especially with the predicted collapse by some of the overall number of cars needed for global transportation with the advent of autonomous driving?

Do keep in mind that the 20M target was floated by Musk himself and not random members of the forum.

The disruptions that Tesla is executing on are multiple and fluid. It is not only about the BEV and it’s emergence as the dominant form of global personal travel, but the entire manufacturing process used to produce huge volumes and the infrastructure used to distribute these volumes to the masses. The fluidity and constant reevaluation of product and product flows as to how to achieve these goals is precisely what Tesla has proven to excel at and what the competition seems to lack almost completely.

Unprecedented means that it has never happened and there is no roadmap, but all new technology is unprecedented and its spread is always underestimated and misunderstood. So many examples of the previous sentence. Easy one is cellphones and Apple. If I had predicted Apple’s current numbers ten years ago, would you have been similarly amused then by the idea?

While 20 million cars is a nice aspiration, the real race and ultimate domination of future car markets lies in FSD. If Tesla is the first there, then while the ultimate numbers of cars produced annually may not be reached, the revenue and profitability will be higher than expected and current SP price targets will fall far short.

There is also Tesla energy to consider that Tesla has not really attacked seriously yet due to the battery problem. At least Tesla told us about the battery problem a decade ago and claims to be on the verge of providing a solution. Musk has long maintained that the energy division will be as large as the car division and I have every reason to agree with him based on my world view and future predictions. If Tesla is first with the cheapest and best batteries (seems they already are) then again they will be first movers and most desired in an exploding TAM.

So yeah, your points are valid, but in the end not much different from the criticisms that have been leveled against Tesla from the beginning, namely that the legacy OEMs are huge and to believe you can rival them is incredibly unrealistic and a childish dream. And yet look at where we are at now. In the midst of what almost all people would have described only a scant five years ago as a La-La Land Fairytale.

 

[redan]

Giga Shanghai September production:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452843561490153478

 

[lascavarian]

Komenty (NTSB) just on TV regarding urging FSD to be more carefully tested. Listed a minor number of Tesla events under investigation. Described being given an autopilot demo at Fremont.

Seemed to be mostly a plea that NTSB is good enough darn it. A bit nonspecific re Tesla and more about the function of the NTSB FWIW.

 

[winfield100]

it was very nice listening to the “MarketPlace Morning report” at 6:51 EST (we are -5GMT), that will be repeated at 8:51 EST. (with announcer David Broncachio on PRI/NPR)
(not on the Washington DC 7:51EST story tho)

the lead story was Tesla, how it is over a 1 Trillion, “that’s Trillion with a T” partially because Hertz rental is buying 100,000 Tesla model 3’s.

lots of good press may equal a bit more buying pressure, thou 62 million shares in 1 day times roughly 1,000 plus what 18 billion in options…
still giddy

 

[22522]

You never know where you are going until you get there.

Your points are valid, IMO. How is Tesla going to accomplish the unprecedented? Especially with the predicted collapse by some of the overall number of cars needed for global transportation with the advent of autonomous driving?

Do keep in mind that the 20M target was floated by Musk himself and not random members of the forum.

The disruptions that Tesla is executing on are multiple and fluid. It is not only about the BEV and it’s emergence as the dominant form of global personal travel, but the entire manufacturing process used to produce huge volumes and the infrastructure used to distribute these volumes to the masses. The fluidity and constant reevaluation of product and product flows as to how to achieve these goals is precisely what Tesla has proven to excel at and what the competition seems to lack almost completely.

Unprecedented means that it has never happened and there is no roadmap, but all new technology is unprecedented and its spread is always underestimated and misunderstood. So many examples of the previous sentence. Easy one is cellphones and Apple. If I had predicted Apple’s current numbers ten years ago, would you have been similarly amused then by the idea?

While 20 million cars is a nice aspiration, the real race and ultimate domination of future car markets lies in FSD. If Tesla is the first there, then while the ultimate numbers of cars produced annually may not be reached, the revenue and profitability will be higher than expected and current SP price targets will fall far short.

There is also Tesla energy to consider that Tesla has not really attacked seriously yet due to the battery problem. At least Tesla told us about the battery problem a decade ago and claims to be on the verge of providing a solution. Musk has long maintained that the energy division will be as large as the car division and I have every reason to agree with him based on my world view and future predictions. If Tesla is first with the cheapest and best batteries (seems they already are) then again they will be first movers and most desired in an exploding TAM.

So yeah, your points are valid, but in the end not much different from the criticisms that have been leveled against Tesla from the beginning, namely that the legacy OEMs are huge and to believe you can rival them is incredibly unrealistic and a childish dream. And yet look at where we are at now. In the midst of what almost all people would have described only a scant five years ago as a La-La Land Fairytale.

It is important to note that innovation happens in the boundaries between fields that may have reached diminishing returns, innovation wise.

A lot of OEMs are siloed into a narrow set of fields.

• Oil and petrochemicals for the oil industry.
• Marketing, assembly, distribution and combustion for the car companies (based on money spend guess)
• Data Centers, marketing, optics and operating system software hardware for Apple. Guessing again.

The idea being that Tesla is willing and able to innovate across fields without seeing inter-company friction (negotiation) at every step.

So legacy is huge but skill bound in a way that limits innovation.

 

[jamaatta]

Just a reminder. Not only Elon.

"Tesla’s Board Chair Robyn Denholm said, “By 2030, we are aiming to sell 20 million electric vehicles per year.”"

Tesla's Goal: 20 Million Annual Car Sales by 2030 - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Usually the big headlines from Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting come from the company’s CEO, Elon Musk. And there were some key takeaways which we’ll touch on in a moment. That said, what struck me was a...

cleantechnica.com

 

[22522]

Komenty (NTSB) just on TV regarding urging FSD to be more carefully tested. Listed a minor number of Tesla events under investigation. Described being given an autopilot demo at Fremont.

Seemed to be mostly a plea that NTSB is good enough darn it. A bit nonspecific re Tesla and more about the function of the NTSB FWIW.

As long as these folks know that people are dying at a rate of 800 a week IIRC while they introduce delays for whatever reason.

 

[larmor]

it was very nice listening to the “MarketPlace Morning report” at 6:51 EST (we are -5GMT), that will be repeated at 8:51 EST. (with announcer David Broncachio on PRI/NPR)
(they usually play this at 7:51EST on WAMU in Washington DC where there are a lots of ears)

the lead story was Tesla, how it is over a 1 Trillion, “that’s Trillion with a T” partially because Hertz rental is buying 100,000 Tesla model 3’s.

lots of good press may equal a bit more buying pressure, thou 62 million shares in 1 day times roughly 1,000 plus what 18 billion in options…
still giddy

Npr is surprised because they want to save the environment but doesn’t fit with their anti musk narrative.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Call me crazy, but I never really expected the chart to actually look like the graphic on SMR's T-shirt.

He's changed his initials to SNR now (the 'N' is for Nostradamus)

Cheers!