Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

I think it's like $940 or $950.

But the REAL Maxpain today is $1070 if you bother to look at the second chart at maximum-pain.com.
And this number has been screaming upward this week,

 

[Motor Mouth]

I beg to differ. I'm a tech geek from California who retired in New Mexico.

I too beg to differ. I'm a technology idiot who learned everything valuable I know solely from lurking on this board. I'm from California. I resent the lack of respect for my cohort.

 

[22522]

from piper? thru gary?:

The choice of X axis is important.
The listing of price is important.
The grouping of "other models" with no legend is wise.
The Y axis label is very good.
The step resolution that shows distribution fill on the ID is useful.

The ability to look at (change in cumulative volume)/dt, change in volume per unit time, differences is most important. Linear Y scale makes that possible. Tesla is 2X?

 

[ZachF]

I too beg to differ. I'm a technology idiot who learned everything valuable I know solely from lurking on this board. I'm from California. I resent the lack of respect for my cohort.

I’m a dude playing a dude disguised as another dude.

 

[Unpilot]

I too beg to differ. I'm a technology idiot who learned everything valuable I know solely from lurking on this board. I'm from California. I resent the lack of respect for my cohort.

No need to get testy...lots of idiots on this board.
Actually we probably have a slightly smaller representation than the population as a whole...but just a smidgen.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I see a trend in which politicians always want to f#$& Elon Musk. Either not giving his company EV credits by bringing the Unionized fine print or taxing unrealized gains because he is now the richest man alive. Never saw that discussion when Bozo was the richest man alive from selling toilet paper online with free same day prime delivery while you realize you don’t have any more while sitting on the toilet.

I don’t like that I see conspiracy theories where there should be a free market

Elon, by his manifold talents and also extreme discipline and work ethics, has a *very* large shadow.
On top of this he displays strong ethics and good judgement - and taste.

Together, those qualities shine a very bright light on other leaders, most falling woefully short. That is his first offence.

The second is just blocking the sun.
This is something powerful people find hard to stomach - they like the sun, the power and the glory and the cheering of the crowd.
So, not being able to perform on Elons level, they seek instead to sabotage, handicap or take him down.

The story, and qoute comes to mind: "The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves."

The third is the most scary. He is mortal after all.
So, how was it possible for him to become the Elon we know today-

And it is possible to achieve as much - or just a decent fraction? That is really scary! Because if so, then we would actually have to really strive instead of just slogging around wasting our lives...

 

[Motor Mouth]

No need to get testy...lots of idiots on this board.
Actually we probably have a slightly smaller representation than the population as a whole...but just a smidgen.

/s
Didn't think it was necessary, but not the first mistake I've made.

 

[lafrisbee]

You could argue that Hertz is getting a de-facto rebate by locking in the price now in a (a) generally high-inflation environment and (b) when Teslas specifically are in high demand.
Such a deal may become quite unlikely in the near future.

Tesla could have chosen to deliver the Teslas to Hertz at whatever is the going rate when taking actual delivery.
I aggree that such a move would have been even more hardcore than given them no rebate, which is seen as hardcore now.

I predict that this Hertz deal, aside from the many strategic advantages, will be seen as very good in 1-2 years, purely from a price stand-point.

Tesla could choose to stagger the next huge deal for either Hertz or another corporation in delivery chunks or installments, or some such method, in order to take into account the high likelyhood of rising prices. The buying company would then either pay the going rate at time of delivery or decline delivery and payment both - their choice.

Above approach may seem like harsh terms. But Hertz may be the canary in the coal mine, waking up traditional thinkers.
Harsh deals may become more normal as autonomy inches closer toward becomming more promising, trustworthy and eventually full release.
(With the traditional disclaimer that we don't yet know if self-driving is truly possible)

And when the Kraken is released (Robotaxi cababillity) many companies like Hertz will line up and prostrate themselves and accept whatever terms Elon and Tesla deem fit to offer them.
For without Teslas their future will be grim - or none.

What a mix-up of an example..canaries "go to sleep" in coal mines. And coal mines ain't Green.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

from piper? thru gary?:
View attachment 726696


The choice of X axis is important.
The listing of price is important.
The grouping of "other models" with no legend is wise.
The Y axis label is very good.
The step resolution that shows distribution fill on the ID is useful.

The ability to look at (change in cumulative volume)/dt, change in volume per unit time, differences is most important. Linear Y scale makes that possible. Tesla is 2X?

I made a post about this a few weeks ago when Nio had announced their Sept sales, but the Chinese EV makers, who are by far doing the best with their EV ramp, are only posting similar YoY percentage delivery growth as Tesla. People seem to think they're "catching up to Tesla"......when in reality, just to keep pace with Tesla they need to growing their YoY deliveries by like 3-4X Tesla's YoY delivery growth since Tesla is already at such a larger scale than them.

Everyone is actually losing ground to Tesla, not catching up. The is going to become crystal clear in 2022 when Tesla has further production ramp which no one else is going to have. It's almost comical at this point.

 

[lafrisbee]

I am having one of those stock-split splitting my brain episodes where I can't do the math when I multiply my shares times the stock price. I keep thinking the Totally value is less than the number of shares multiplied by 1000.
Another way, I keep looking for a number below simply adding "000" to the SP.

 

[Artful Dodger]

But the REAL Maxpain today is $1070 if you bother to look at the second chart at maximum-pain.com.
And this number has been screaming upward this week,

Lol, no, that chart is based on YESTERDAY'S data. We won't know today's "REAL" number until tomorrow, when it's REALLY too late to act on the information.

IT'S NOT REALTIME! Please learn the difference.

TL;dr Wall St. isn't giving away usable data for free.

 

[Mengy]

Everyone is actually losing ground to Tesla, not catching up. The is going to become crystal clear in 2022 when Tesla has further production ramp which no one else is going to have. It's almost comical at this point.

I'd agree with you for the most part, except that graph shows that VW is doing pretty decent with the ID4 too as that's not a bad ramp up for them honestly.

 

[WattsHappening]

It sure seems to me like a new SP range >$1,000 has been accepted by MMs, traders, PMs. Loving today's action: nice pop at the open, decent but not huge volume, orderly trading in a tight range. A consolidation here in the $1,050 - $1,100 range would suit me just fine.

Of course, I'd be thrilled if we shot above $1,100.

 

[MikeC]

Camp out at 1070? @jhm

 

[TheTalkingMule]

But the REAL Maxpain today is $1070 if you bother to look at the second chart at maximum-pain.com.
And this number has been screaming upward this week,

Volume doesn't equate to added open interest.

 

[lafrisbee]

Volume doesn't equate to added open interest.

You got me.
(That is why I write "eyeballing" the charts.) I don't know enough to have reasons for the Price. But my eyeball Max-pain Number is a lot closer than the printed Max-pain price quite often.
Now educate me... I figured the "Volume" was how much was wrapped up in deals. Whereas since the "open interest" is "open" it is what is being offered...like an "open" contract isn't as secured.

 

[aronth5]

.......

And when the Kraken is released (Robotaxi cababillity) many companies like Hertz will line up and prostrate themselves and accept whatever terms Elon and Tesla deem fit to offer them.
For without Teslas their future will be grim - or none.

When making investment decisions on Tesla I'm not including Robotaxis potential. Appears to be several years out IMO with too much uncertainty. Lets see where FSD is at the end of 2022.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'd agree with you for the most part, except that graph shows that VW is doing pretty decent with the ID4 too as that's not a bad ramp up for them honestly.

My post is actually separate from any opinion on other auto maker's growth.

I'm talking about the cold hard facts here. Just to keep pace with Tesla, everyone needs to be growing at 3-4X what they current are doing. Considering the fact that Tesla is set for another year of 75-100% growth in deliveries, the competition is going to fall drastically behind by the end of 2022. If the competition's growth rates stay where they're at throughout 2022, they'll then need to have 6-8X Tesla's growth rate % just to keep pace in 2023. The longer this goes on, the larger the gap becomes.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Everyone is actually losing ground to Tesla, not catching up. The is going to become crystal clear in 2022 when Tesla has further production ramp which no one else is going to have. It's almost comical at this point.

Losing ground because Tesla is now in a sprint and they're at the bottom of the Manayunk Wall. They were 5 years behind up til recently, and have been ~7 years behind since 2018. At a certain point it felt like they weren't too far back, but that was just because everyone was climbing a steep hill. Turns out Tesla was nearing the top and is now nearly over it.

Now that Tesla is blasting up the S-curve, the lead will again become much more apparent as we head toward 2023-25 and the inevitable shakeout/bloodbath. Many many players will die on the wall.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You got me.
(That is why I write "eyeballing" the charts.) I don't know enough to have reasons for the Price. But my eyeball Max-pain Number is a lot closer than the printed Max-pain price quite often.
Now educate me... I figured the "Volume" was how much was wrapped up in deals. Whereas since the "open interest" is "open" it is what is being offered...like an "open" contract isn't as secured.

I'm not more certain than you actually. My guess is that volume is simply that, the number of times contracts at that strike that changed hands during market hours. Without access to the actual data on how many new positions were opened, there's no way of knowing if that netted out to added contracts or fewer total outstanding contracts.