Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

ARK funds are about 1.3% of my brokerage account and have almost tripled in value since late 2019/early 2020 when I built the positions. Around a year ago, when ARK funds were on a screaming tear and people were amazed, I cautioned that, over time, funds like ARK's can only be expected to grow in the neighborhood of 15%/year.

What matters is not the performance of a few months but that over years. ARK funds have been wildly outperforming my expectations and I'm upping my long-term expectations to 20% or more annually, averaged over longer, multi-year periods, regardless of when one enters the position. Those who entered earlier could see much higher returns. I'm basing this on the strengthening of my thesis that the world economy will benefit greatly from the transition from the industrial age to the age of technology and new technologies will garner the bulk of the gains. But investing takes time.

I would never take a large position in such funds (although I think most individual investors might be well served to own such funds in place of market indexes) and 1.3% of my portfolio is not very significant. Personally, I took the positions just to force myself to have a stake in the hopes that I could take a larger interest in some of the individual components of the funds (besides TSLA,, LOL). I don't need to own ARK funds in order to do this (ARK holdings are published for all to see) but I've found that having a stake, no matter how minor, can help stimulate a lazy investor like me.

I, too, like having a small position of ARK funds in my portfolio. If the rest of my portfolio is doing better than the ARK funds, I take that as indication that I'm doing something right. If an ARK fund starts to move up in my portfolio, then I'm curious about what I might be missing out on that is propelling the ARK fund. So either way, it's a useful benchmark to enhance my investment skill.

 

[FastCompany]

Lots of boring tax law bickering in here that I can't get on with when I'm sitting here STILL trying to get Tesla to sell me the car I ordered (my third Tesla) back in May of this year. Yeah, the Hertz deal will definitely delay delivery to some customers, but considering the $4.2B deal for 100k SR+ model 3s, they're paying more than I am, and I'm including the $750 for direct delivery to my house. Seems like the deal was inked sometime after my order...

Anyone have that chart of price changes over time handy?

Rob Maurer of Tesla Daily keeps track of Tesla price changes over time. The latest appears to be from October 7th.
Tesla Has Raised Prices Again - Here Are The Changes

 

[The Accountant]

While the 274k P/D number isn't shocking to me or most of us here.....I've never heard of the S&P committee getting information on internal forecast from a company that hasn't been publicly stated.......that seems incredibly shady.

This assumes that Tesla cooperates with the Rating Agency's crooked process. My guess is that Tesla shares nothing with the Agencies. . . .why should they?
I could be wrong but that's my hunch. Gary assumes that Tesla is like every other company that kowtows to the agencies.

 

[Cherry Wine]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453724283817975808

Gary once again making himself look silly. Tesla was already the most heavily traded stock out there options-wise except for micro cap stocks. It's not "unsettling" that the volume would go crazy on a big move in the stock

This is what I dislike about Gary. When he sells some shares, he has no problem posting misleading articles/information to try and get himself a lower entry price. He did this same crap back in Q1 when he sold. He immediately started posting bearish articles on Tesla.

I'm rooting for Tesla to continue higher and form a base over 1,100 so Gary has to pony up if he wants the shares he sold back.

Did Gary even sell shares? He said he sold some covered calls expiring 10/29 at $1,250 strike price. Also, he's posted tons of bullish stuff this morning, including raising his price target from $1,200 to $1,400. I mean, I don't need to defend the guy -- hate him, love him, whatever -- but let's at least be accurate in what we're posting.

If he actually sold some shares and I missed it, apologies in advance and I'll edit my comment. But the points about him posting bullish stuff still stand. I don't read him as having turned bearish at all. If anything, I interpret the above tweet as simply being unsettled over high volatility in a name that takes up the largest percentage of his fund, and the possibility of a large downside move concomitant with said volatility.

 

[MikeC]

Did Gary even sell shares? He said he sold some covered calls expiring 10/29 at $1,250 strike price. Also, he's posted tons of bullish stuff this morning, including raising his price target from $1,200 to $1,400. I mean, I don't need to defend the guy -- hate him, love him, whatever -- but let's at least be accurate in what we're posting.

If he actually sold some shares and I missed it, apologies in advance and I'll edit my comment. But the points about him posting bullish stuff still stand. I don't read him as having turned bearish at all.

I had the same question but someone posted the tweet earlier this morning where he "trimmed" some around 1080.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Did Gary even sell shares? He said he sold some covered calls expiring 10/29 at $1,250 strike price. Also, he's posted tons of bullish stuff this morning, including raising his price target from $1,200 to $1,400. I mean, I don't need to defend the guy -- hate him, love him, whatever -- but let's at least be accurate in what we're posting.

If he actually sold some shares and I missed it, apologies in advance.

See one of the earlier posts, someone actually found the Gary tweets. He trimmed his position on Monday. He could have already bought those shares back......coincidentally right before he raised his PT

 

[Krugerrand]

I find this forum's analysis of stock price movements interesting. If I understand correctly, it goes something like this:

Stock price goes down: "Darned market manipulators"
Stock price goes up: "Finally the fundamental truth about the stock could not be manipulated any longer."

Dunno, seems kind of simplistic to me..

You say that like it’s a bad thing; KISS method. No need to over complicate things.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Same here.
bought some ARK before the last tech correction and I am down in all my ARK.
When I see them selling TSLA to buy more crap I am happier to see my TSLA:ARK is 95:5

Ditto.

Well, similar, @OrthoSurg and @Sunlight :

TSLA 55%
ARKK 2.5%
Index 30.5%
Fixed income 12% (holdover from big early COVID de-risk in June 2020)

 

[Krugerrand]

No one talked about his wealth 13 years ago as the guy almost lost over 100 million dollars of post tax money to solve renewable energy while the government put about zero people in jail for swindling people's money that caused the market crash. But at least Al Gore made a video about it right? Hundreds of fires/cat 5 hurricane later we now target the only guy who gave a damn 13 years ago to help fund today's climate bill (aka legacy auto bailout bill)..pfffffffft.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453166769120612360

Preach!

 

[Drax7]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453008490348298245

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453013974199459849

If you follow comments under that second tweet, he confirms trimming some of his position at $1080.

He said they “trimmed” some, but have not fully exited. However, he implies they would exit at $1200.

Gary is an amazing choreographer, should join a dance company .

 

[lafrisbee]

Simple solution.

If you are uber rich (pick a number) and you borrow money against your shares you should be taxed on that loan money. The tax paid is preserved as a credit if and when you actually sell the shares.

Forcing owners of hugely successful companies to lose their shares and possibly control of the company through taxation on unrealized gains is not the answer. Forcing them to pay taxes when they choose to access liquidity while preserving their share base is.

Don't understand why they were so willing to float this billionaire tax as a simple deal. It works well as a sound bite. Complicated. Taxing the loans easier.

YOU ARE RIGHT!
(At least in my lil ol simplistic figurin' numbers side of my mind.
Which should be a big deal to The US Government leaders cuz I ain't no "free lunch" tick, or a French Revolutionary. I'm just an above average in thinking..for an American.
Damn it. I just shot yer whole idea to hell. There ain't enough of me to sway a Board of Education Member Election in my up-scale neighborhood.
In Elon We Trust...just because we have one itty-bit of hope left.)

 

[Singuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453423792592674817

 

[Drax7]

I, too, like having a small position of ARK funds in my portfolio. If the rest of my portfolio is doing better than the ARK funds, I take that as indication that I'm doing something right. If an ARK fund starts to move up in my portfolio, then I'm curious about what I might be missing out on that is propelling the ARK fund. So either way, it's a useful benchmark to enhance my investment skill.

I track their holding, if they meet my investing criteria I will buy. Coin is one
I recently purchased, and frankly it’s not clear how sustainable the
business is.

 

[ZachF]

What is max pain this week? ....does it even matter?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Bah. This $10xx stuff is boring. It’s been like, what, four days now? Let’s call this consolidated and move on.

 

[Singuy]

Preach!

The only ones who need to pay for the climate bill should be the ones causing the problem. Carbon tax and zev credits are good enough. However the government is not talking about this tells me climate change is just a talking point used to drive division between those who strongly believes in income inequality and those who dont.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Presented to you for your morning guffaw.

GM can 'absolutely' catch Tesla in EV sales by 2025, says CEO Mary Barra — CNBC

GM CEO Mary Barra told CNBC the automaker can "absolutely" catch Tesla in U.S. EV sales by 2025 with its planned electric vehicles, including a Hummer pickup.

apple.news

There are two easy ways for this to become reality:

• Invent a portal to a parallel world, called GM-dreamworld. Then, substitute our world for the GM-dreamworld.
• Invent a time machine, and go back and correct all of GMs past mistakes. Only problem is: How far would you need to go back?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What is max pain this week? ....does it even matter?

I think it's like $940 or $950.

 

[lafrisbee]

I find this forum's analysis of stock price movements interesting. If I understand correctly, it goes something like this:

Stock price goes down: "Darned market manipulators"
Stock price goes up: "Finally the fundamental truth about the stock could not be manipulated any longer."

Dunno, seems kind of simplistic to me..

Now I am ignorant but that doesn't stop me or any other ignoramace on her from having their own "analysis."
And here is mine.
The MM's do hold TSLA back. But they only do it to be able to play within inside their corral. They milk it...and illegally do so with short-selling. They will let it go high and perhaps even help it go higher to sell calls for a large profit if they have the understanding they can get it to a certain lower price by the close. And they will Make pretend moves to have the SP go lower to sell more puts, and then release it to go back where they want it.
And I've seen it with my own two little eyes. How I use my "anal"ysis is if the stock gets way out in front of the Artful Dodger's REAL Max-pain price (which can be seen in the graphs on maxpain.com ..the second graph) I sell some stock while it is way higher, like $40 higher, and then buy it back when it drops $10-$20/SP. Since I ain't got no special ability in my ROTH so I have to wait a couple of days between doing that maneuver. But it has worked for me for a good while. Only about the beginning of September did I get caught out by selling around September 20th and the SP never came back below $10 a share. (After waiting a couple of weeks, I bit the bullet and got back in at a $30/SP loss.)
But I feel the MM's don't want to have to hold it back. They aren't out to get me or TSLA. They don't mind the stock moving, as long as they have figured out how to make more money on it than just HODLing.
And in weeks like this one I bet they are losing money. Each day they've bought and sold positions to diminish their losses. And they do so trying to not start a stampede. Could you imagine if on a Monday afternoon they adjust Maxpain for Friday up $100? No they even "lie" about max-pain. That is why The Artful Dodger does his own calculations and lil ol me just eyeballs the charts to figure out the REAL Maxpain.
If MM's were so powerful they could control a stock such as TSLA then it would all be over. But they can manipulate it to the point that the SP can be massaged more often than not to take advantage of gullible investors.
So yeah, there are weeks where the MM's stop a surge. But some weeks the surge would have been downward. And only a few people on here actually feel as though there needs to be a post about how the MM's supported the SP. Whereas on a week where MM's stop TSLA human nature is such that the need to proclaim what happened is strong.

 

[Unpilot]

Started to go out for a walk....it started pouring rain.... I came back to join you all.

Glad Macro tax class is over...social engineering class as well.

SP looks to be on a nice trajectory.