Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Sure, and my mother from Nanaimo handily provided me my Canadian Passport, invaluable when entering Iran following the revolution. That is another story... Vancouver Island is as close to heaven as the world affords! Anyway that is what my grandfather kept telling me as a small California-born child. He never approved of his daughter heading south. Now Nanaimo even has it's very own Supercharger that I used as I was going to our ancestral home in a Model X.

I now have an even higher regard for you.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'll be curious to see if Tesla sell offs along with Apple/Amazon or if investors see Tesla in an even more positive light now that it's clear for Q4 and Q1, Tesla will be a much stronger growth play (both revenue and earnings play) over those

 

[kyzhk]

New BBB Act language is up (and there seems to be an agreement on this language). (https://rules.house.gov/sites/democrats.rules.house.gov/files/BILLS-117HR5376RH-RCP117-17.pdf)

I read it very quickly, but seems pretty similar to before.

- Income limitations at $800k joint/$400k individual.
- Capped at MSRPS of: $55k (Car); $64k (Van); $69k (SUV); $74k (Truck)
- Effective in 2022
- Base Credit of $4000
- Additional $3500 for batteries >40kWh (and a tiny gas tank)
- Additional $4500 for domestic unionized assembly
- Additional $500 for domestic batteries
- Expires 2031
- Can be point-of-sale after 2022

Final result for Tesla: $7500-$8000 credit depending on how battery manufacture is determined for Models 3/Y/Cybertruck.

My take: A net positive for Tesla. No reason to get up in arms about union assembly -- it will be years before domestic unionized manufacturers can produce same quantities as Tesla and for now and a long while, Tesla's cost advantages are likely greater than $4500k. Plus, for now, Tesla treated the same as closest global competitors like VW.

There is also still a used EV credit of $2000 for middle income taxpayers (up to $150k joint) purchasing cars for less than $25k.

Don't really see positives here. Legacy detroit will be incentivized to produce PHEV at volume grabbing base credit $4000 + union assembly $4500 + domestic battery $500. a $8500 - $9000 subsidy for making PHEV is basically a handout to legacy impeding the transition to full EV production.

 

[ggr]

ummm, the join date beneath his avatar ?

View attachment 726762

Of course, I lurked for quite sometime before I actually created an account.

Sorry, guys... original OG:

 

[jerry33]

Don't really see positives here. Legacy detroit will be incentivized to produce PHEV at volume grabbing base credit $4000 + union assembly $4500 + domestic battery $500. a $8500 - $9000 subsidy for making PHEV is basically a handout to legacy impeding the transition to full EV production.

We're making sure everyone gets a participation trophy. (Except the winner who gets the goose egg.)

 

[ZeApelido]

Breaking News:

Motivated by Facebook changing its name to Meta, NHTSA authorities Thursday petitioned the White House to force Tesla to change its name to Beta.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Currently, Hertz Sweden’s website says, “Polestar 2 is the hottest electric car on the market right now.”

So then... LG battery cells?

Cheers!

 

[woodisgood]

Breaking News:

Motivated by Facebook changing its name to Meta, NHTSA authorities Thursday petitioned the White House to force Tesla to change its name to Beta.

And the "bad" AI is officially named.

 

[Entropy]

Assuming it goes forward as written above the $ cutoffs is interesting in that Model 3 performance is excluded- but Model Y performance is not.

(of course Tesla could always cut the 3 back slightly in price and fix that if they wished)

And the base model Cybertruck becomes a screaming deal (though it remains questionable if that pricing will still exist when it comes out)






Every time someone posts this I ask what law they think it would violate.

Still waiting for anyone to provide an answer.

Generally stuff related to preferential tax code treatment is viewed very very deferentially by the courts in favor of the government...we treat TONS of groups and people differently to encourage various behaviors- just to name 3 common ones-

Homeowners are taxed differently from renters.

Parents are taxed differently from the childless.

Single and married people are taxed differently.

Could Tesla create a new Union- United Electric Vehicle Workers (UEVW) ?
Or is this bill specifically requires UAW manufactured vehicles.

In my opinion - all it needs is some sort of union and may be a future union would be UEVW, effective Jan 1st, 2022

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Well if AAPL and AMZN drag TSLA down a bit tomorrow, I can trade some fresh BPS and buy some calls for next week. It's a win-win!

 

[Skryll]

AMZN misses badly,
Macro eyes on AAPL next ...

+ both missed ... so down Nasdaq day or more more $ flowing into the new #1

So glad I only diworsified 1% to AMZN, NFLX, MSFT, PRCFY, MSFT, CSIQ, ARKG, AMD portfolio up 3.58%

 

[lafrisbee]

Don't really see positives here. Legacy detroit will be incentivized to produce PHEV at volume grabbing base credit $4000 + union assembly $4500 + domestic battery $500. a $8500 - $9000 subsidy for making PHEV is basically a handout to legacy impeding the transition to full EV production.

There is a HUGE positive.
This will be seen by the analysts and even retail investors as a big tail wind for TSLA, regardless of the incentives slightly helping the companies that really need it more than Tesla.
(IF it passes.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm surprised that $4500 for unionised workers is even legal?

The issue is, is it even constitutional? This is headed to the Supreme Court, where it will invariably be struck down due to its many issues, discussed here previously. All the other U.S. resident automakers except GM + Ford opposed the provision. Guess which one are the Union shops?

 

[Knightshade]

Could Tesla create a new Union- United Electric Vehicle Workers (UEVW) ?
Or is this bill specifically requires UAW manufactured vehicles.

In my opinion - all it needs is some sort of union and may be a future union would be UEVW, effective Jan 1st, 2022

Has been covered.

Exhaustively.

Tesla can't "create a union" that's literally not how that works- management can't have anything to do with creating it.

Teslas non-management employees, by majority vote, could choose to create one. But it would have to be an actual union that does actual union things, not the "fake not really a union" idea many have suggested.

There is a HUGE positive.
This will be seen by the analysts and even retail investors as a big tail wind for TSLA, regardless of the incentives slightly helping the companies that really need it more than Tesla.
(IF it passes.)

Yup.

And if legacy wants to use it as a lifeline to drag their feet even slower it just puts them further behind on any chance of digging themselves out of the graves they're currently digging themselves into.

The issue is, is it even constitutional?

Yes, it is.

What specific wording in the constitution would make you think otherwise?

This is headed to the Supreme Court,

Probably not.

I expect a circuit court will defer to congress as they almost always do as having the broad power to tax as they wish, and the USSC will reject any appeal as the lower court having ruled correctly in line with previous such cases.

were it will invariably be struck down due to its many issues, discussed here previously.

Specifically- which ones?

Because as I mention- any time I've asked- nobody has been able to articulate any actual legal argument why it would be struck down.

It may well be terrible policy, but it's legal policy.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453824841321222147

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453807452449763330

 

[bhzmark]

Current house draft of EV credit sections:

The Income Limitation:
‘‘(A) $800,000 in the case of a joint return or surviving spouse (half such amount for married filing separately),
‘‘(B) $600,000 in the case of a head of household, and
‘‘(C) $400,000 in any other case.

Vehicle Price Limitation
‘‘(A) SEDANS.—In the case of a sedan, $55,000.
‘‘(B) VANS.—In the case of a van, $64,000.
‘‘(C) SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES.—In the 4 case of a sport utility vehicle, $69,000.
‘‘(D) PICKUP TRUCKS.—In the case of a pickup truck, $74,000.

And a domestic content requirement -- with no reference to unions

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

There is a HUGE positive.
This will be seen by the analysts and even retail investors as a big tail wind for TSLA, regardless of the incentives slightly helping the companies that really need it more than Tesla.
(IF it passes.)

I've yet to see an analyst really factor in the EV credit besides just saying it is a broad catalyst.

In reality, it may not make a material margin difference at first but as Tesla realizes reduction in cost of goods when the current good supply issues solves itself and also as Tesla recognizes reduction in manufacturing costs, Tesla won't be dropping prices since the EV credit will give them so much demand and thus then it will go to Tesla's profits/margins. It'll also give consumers more incentive to go for the top line trims which will materially effect Tesla's margin starting in Q1.

I think this will start to show up starting in mid 2022. Maybe as early as Q2 2022 earnings. Even @The Accountant $12 GAAP EPS could be a bit conservative if things play out this way.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Noooo!!! Stop!! Not that union discussion again!

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453807452449763330

Elevator Pitch -- Mr Leo, how about buying 100K (maybe less based on size) M3/MY as Singapore/Malaysia/Indonesia Taxi fleet