RobDickinson
Active Member
I call this one 'The peak?' A collab between tslaq and me
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
@Prunesquallor wrote:
Consider pricing out the cost of purchasing long-dated Puts for that nn% of your holdings. For example, if you only want to borrow 10% against your committed shares, then you'd select Put contracts at a strike price somewhere around 10% of the current SP (very cheap indeed).
This locks in the share value for an SBLOC-type asset-based loans while costing very little. Again, if you want to borrow 25%, you need to buy puts at a strike price around one-quarter of the current SP. Another bonus is this is cheaper when the SP is high, and can provide years of price protection. Be aware, this protection does get more expensive when volatility is up, however.
For example, I can lock-in sufficient value for a AWD 7-seater Model Y with 300 shares at around a 25% strike price for around $460/yr. It costs more if you pledge fewer shares, less if you pledge more (due to the shape of the cost-curve).
Loan interest is on top of this of course, but lenders like the security and may offer a better rate. You're insulated from SP flucuations for a set period of time, during which you can roll forward at your pleasure. Then you have the luxury of buying cheap money when the SP is high, while riding out the lows with a big ol' SEG.
Cheers!
"The big fluctuations don’t make this easy."
Consider pricing out the cost of purchasing long-dated Puts for that nn% of your holdings. For example, if you only want to borrow 10% against your committed shares, then you'd select Put contracts at a strike price somewhere around 10% of the current SP (very cheap indeed).
This locks in the share value for an SBLOC-type asset-based loans while costing very little. Again, if you want to borrow 25%, you need to buy puts at a strike price around one-quarter of the current SP. Another bonus is this is cheaper when the SP is high, and can provide years of price protection. Be aware, this protection does get more expensive when volatility is up, however.
For example, I can lock-in sufficient value for a AWD 7-seater Model Y with 300 shares at around a 25% strike price for around $460/yr. It costs more if you pledge fewer shares, less if you pledge more (due to the shape of the cost-curve).
Loan interest is on top of this of course, but lenders like the security and may offer a better rate. You're insulated from SP flucuations for a set period of time, during which you can roll forward at your pleasure. Then you have the luxury of buying cheap money when the SP is high, while riding out the lows with a big ol' SEG.
Cheers!
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I deleted my post because I didn’t explain my situation well. Then I decided it wasn’t appropriate to ask for financial advice. But thanks for responding.
mejojo
Active Member
BE CAREFUL! Schwab told me they only match up exact options on their "disallowed loss" display, but that is not what the tax law says, as far as I know.
To be compliant, 30 days either side of the loss sale you can't have bought the security or its options. This is what I am using to control. I had been expecting to have to sell Jan '22 1000 and Mar '22 1100 calls for about $400K loss, and was preparing to embargo my buys, but we know how that is looking after this week.
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Well, my estimate seems to be the only one based on routine observation of key aspects affecting TSLA and the market, repeatedly, over time.
Because of the science behind it my target number should be memeorized for future reference.
@Unpilot is on the right track in the most recent response, though may be aiming a tad high.
@Oil4AsphaultOnly, @OrthoSurg and @insaneoctane deserve honorable mention.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
1 free Leet-2-English translator. Enjoy.
Universal Leet (L337, L33T, 1337) Converter
Universal Leet (L337, L33T, 1337) Converter translates text to leetspeak, or leetspeak to text. Different modes are available (e.g., Braille, Morse code, Greek, Cyrillic, flip, reverse, balloon).
www.robertecker.com
Cheers!
I think your very scientific projection is a tad high also. My mathematical analysis came up with $1420.42 at years end.
So you HAVE been cooperating. That’s our lad.
Hmm, I’ve been planning on cleaning out my mess of prices and dates to Jan 23 leaps. Looks like I’ve got some homework before December.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
I remember buying a bunch of CSCO at just under $80. It was one of my less brilliant trades.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I hate to settle for less, but, ultimately, it is hard to question numbers like that.
lafrisbee
Active Member
Yeah, you need to go back and read what I wrote. I am pretty sure I was writing from the viewpoint of a non-tesla, climate change doesn't matter stance that the majority of the people believe today. I wasn't discussing facts. I was writing of perceptions and how people aren't going to buy cars to save the world. they are going to buy damn good cars. And That is the truth.Pooh poohing the acid rain problem to support your view is like Pooh poohing Covid. Thanks to a major effort many lives have been saved (with the ones saved often not knowing that they would otherwise have perished). similarly, acid rain was addressed successfully in an international effort. Check out the first link to see two US maps with the pH levels (Remember, a pH difference of 1 means 10 times the concentration in H3O+) with a time difference of 14 years.
Acid rain - Pollution, Effects, Solutions
Acid rain - Pollution, Effects, Solutions: Modern anthropogenic acid deposition began in Europe and eastern North America after World War II, as countries in those areas greatly increased their consumption of fossil fuels. International cooperation to address air pollution and acid deposition...www.britannica.com
The second link gives an overview of what has been done to achieve success
Lots of art of cathedrals and works of art have suffered from acid rain. Now I’m an agnostic atheist who thinks religion is not a good thing because it discourages people from scrutinizing their opinions instead of being open to being wrong and aligning one’s opinions with the one reality for all of us. I’m also a nerd and I don’t care about art at all. Yet both personal views are not a reason to cheer on acid rain.
I do acknowledge that different people value different things, and I don’t mind people going for an EV for the acceleration more than for its environmental benefits, but willful ignorance doesn’t go well with me. There is only one reality, and I hope that on this forum (and outside that) that reality is used as the benchmark. It is of essence for our TSLA investments and for our planet.
BTW I was locked and loaded to fight Acid rain. It started getting wide press while I was in college and I was an avid outdoorsman.
Here's the thing. And this applies in general to the Tax Credit for EV's. And I am not looking for a reply like, "Well they should have forced whoever to pay them a living wage.."
The vast majority of people in Alabama have no way to force any organization that is making big bucks off of what they produce to give them a big part of it.
So the unions screw over the rest of the population by getting a much higher wage just because their boss can inflate the prices of the product.
It's another inflated layer of cost just because the Union can unethically strike. Most of this can easily be seen by the animosity Unions have towards someone that would be willing to do the work for less, the "scabs." Unions act like they have right to a particular job...
It isn't anything the Union Member did to create the product. They just make the product. And often their job is easier than non-union people making less. And they do not give a damn about how anyone else is, just the union. Period.
Nothing personal...
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
TSLA: +43.70% since Q3 P&D Report.
It's nice to get the broad strokes right, wot?
Cheers!
It's nice to get the broad strokes right, wot?
Cheers!
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
(What follows is not financial advice, and all numbers are rounded and in nominal Oct 2021 $USD without regard to inflation.)
Dawning Awareness of the Juggernaut
What we are witnessing now I believe is primarily the market waking up to basic facts that were obvious to anyone actually paying attention to the data:
1) Tesla is selling cars far below the market clearing price even though gross margin ex emissions credits is tickling 30% (backlogs of 9-12 months for almost all products they sell)
2) The competition is floundering
3) Tesla's earnings power is going to explode moving forward now that we've hit enough scale to pass the break-even point with fixed costs and as new manufacturing efficiencies come into play in Austin, Berlin and Shanghai
4) Tesla can construct factories faster and cheaper than anyone in the entire manufacturing sector of the world economy
GAAP Earnings per Share EXPLOSION
FY 2018 ($1.1)
FY 2019 ($1)
FY 2020 $0.7
Q3 '21 was $1.6 (that's right, 2.3x the EPS of all of 2020 in one quarter)
> At Friday's $1128 after-hours close, that's annualized P/E of 170
By Q1 '22 it will roughly double again to at least $3
> $1128/share --> annualized P/E of 90
Look forward to Q4 '22 and we've got like $5 EPS
> $1128/share -->annualized P/E 60
Then supply pressures hopefully have eased by 2023/2024ish and Austin and Berlin have ramped substantially. Sometime in 2023 or 2024 quarterly EPS will have doubled again to $10.
> $1128/share --> annualized P/E only 30!!! About equal to Apple's P/E.
And this is just looking at the vehicle business.
What's a Reasonable P/E?
Realistically, P/E is likely to stay well above 100 while earnings grow this quickly.
P/E DCF Derivation
If you have an asset producing an income stream that starts at $1 in Year 1
...that grows 50% annually for 10 years
...then stabilizes for 10 more years
...with an 8% discount rate
---> The net present value of that asset is a whopping $181.
Hmm...that's about the same as the current P/E of 170 that we hit on Friday! This is fundamentally why the P/E for Tesla's growth trajectory will probably be at least 150. The only good reason the P/E would fall is either material increases in interest rates (and thus the discount rate) or an expectation in any year that there isn't a clear path for sustained 50% earnings CAGR for a decade out from that point. Doing a more detailed discounted cash flow analysis for Tesla's earnings growth produces approximately this same result, so this is good enough for rough estimates.
Plus, I believe the potential of FSD and Energy will be increasingly adding to valuation in the coming years. If so, the 50% earnings CAGR projection could be egregiously too conservative.
If that 150 annualized P/E is applied to when quarterly EPS hits $10 in 2023/2024, then we're looking at a $6,000 share price.
Conclusion
I believe any drop in the share price from this level will be a buying opportunity that lasts 6 months at most.
Except for small amounts to fund quitting my job, I'm not f^$%ing selling.
12 O'Clock High.
Did some math. A prevent defense results in a guaranteed loss. So that is not going to happen.
Been reflecting on recent TSLA stock advances, so on the way to mountain biking (femoral artery adaptation) I said, "Play They Can't Take that Away From Me by June Christy." Thoughts being I don't know the future, but so far so good.
They were having a WWII (and some WWI) aircraft show at Redbird Airport (across the street from trail). I crossed everything I saw with the TSLA business performance and here are my thoughts.
The sun was blinding, hard to see this B-24 Liberator, but you could definitely hear it! Getting this picture made me think that Tesla is coming out of the sun. People hear noises, but they have no idea what is coming.
This is a B-17 Flying Fortress in silver, reminded me of Starship. There was a green one flying as well. Starship went together in a hurry...
Here are a 3 fighters. They go faster. More like Tesla. The shutter speed on the iPhone sometimes lumped all the prop blades on one side.
After looking up and squinting, I look at the trail. This is the warm up part:
About 2 hours in, I mis-time the loading of the fork at the top of a hill defined by a root bed. Go over the handlebars - landing on my back on the smooth, flat, level part of the trail where bike and rider are supposed to end if executed properly. I look up at the sky. It is beautiful!
This might be where the story ends. The most expensive part of the day was the trip to Trader Joe's on the way back home to pickup some figs, to rebalance the blood pH, and blueberries and yogurt (to improve balance).
Somehow this picture from the beginning of the day has meaning. I walked past this Lexus while cleaning up after painting the transom on a 50 year old Laser sailboat.
Just trying to make it all make sense. Somehow it is getting close. Nice day. Go TSLA!
Did some math. A prevent defense results in a guaranteed loss. So that is not going to happen.
Been reflecting on recent TSLA stock advances, so on the way to mountain biking (femoral artery adaptation) I said, "Play They Can't Take that Away From Me by June Christy." Thoughts being I don't know the future, but so far so good.
They were having a WWII (and some WWI) aircraft show at Redbird Airport (across the street from trail). I crossed everything I saw with the TSLA business performance and here are my thoughts.
The sun was blinding, hard to see this B-24 Liberator, but you could definitely hear it! Getting this picture made me think that Tesla is coming out of the sun. People hear noises, but they have no idea what is coming.
This is a B-17 Flying Fortress in silver, reminded me of Starship. There was a green one flying as well. Starship went together in a hurry...
Here are a 3 fighters. They go faster. More like Tesla. The shutter speed on the iPhone sometimes lumped all the prop blades on one side.
After looking up and squinting, I look at the trail. This is the warm up part:
About 2 hours in, I mis-time the loading of the fork at the top of a hill defined by a root bed. Go over the handlebars - landing on my back on the smooth, flat, level part of the trail where bike and rider are supposed to end if executed properly. I look up at the sky. It is beautiful!
This might be where the story ends. The most expensive part of the day was the trip to Trader Joe's on the way back home to pickup some figs, to rebalance the blood pH, and blueberries and yogurt (to improve balance).
Somehow this picture from the beginning of the day has meaning. I walked past this Lexus while cleaning up after painting the transom on a 50 year old Laser sailboat.
Just trying to make it all make sense. Somehow it is getting close. Nice day. Go TSLA!
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Uncle LEO feeling optimistic tonight…
I very much do think that Wall St will keep Tesla's forward P/E around range 150-200 for as long as Tesla keeps executing at 50%+ growth.
Which means (and was very much the point of my post), the stock is going to continue to march higher, quarter after quarter, for the next 2 years minimum because Tesla is growing their earnings so rapidly. Some quarters might be a small gain for the stock (5-10%), others might be large (20-25%), but given that TSLA is trading off of actual fundamentals, the stock is likely going to start behaving in a more normal and expected manner (if you believe in Tesla's growth of course). I think the days of massive volatility in the stock are behind us. Could we see a further rally to 1200 and then a 8-10% pull back to 1100? Sure. But I don't think we see 900 again. Of course as always, it's dependent on Tesla continuing to execute.
So anyone thinking 2022 is going to be repeat of 2020 with those crazy 30-40% swings back n forth or 2021 where there's a huge blow off top and then long consolidation. I think you're going to be disappointed.
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Tesla's recurring software revenue is massively underrated. Here's some monthly revenue scenarios:
So with a fleet size of 30M vehicles, with premium connectivity take rate of 75%, and FSD subscription take rate of 20%, that would be $1,419,000,000 a month in revenue. Obviously that number increases as take rate increases and the fleet size grows. This assumes FSD price doesn't increase as FSD capabilities increase. Even with 5M fleet size and 10% FSD take rate, that is still over $1B a year in recurring revenue. Not sure what the margins are for this, but I'm assuming they are pretty high.
| Fleet Size | Connectivity @ 75% | FSD Sub @ 10% | FSD Sub @ 15% | FSD Sub @ 20% |
| 5,000,000 | $37,500,000 | $99,500,000 | $149,250,000 | $199,000,000 |
| 10,000,000 | $75,000,000 | $199,000,000 | $298,500,000 | $398,000,000 |
| 15,000,000 | $112,500,000 | $298,500,000 | $447,750,000 | $597,000,000 |
| 20,000,000 | $150,000,000 | $398,000,000 | $597,000,000 | $796,000,000 |
| 30,000,000 | $225,000,000 | $597,000,000 | $895,500,000 | $1,194,000,000 |
So with a fleet size of 30M vehicles, with premium connectivity take rate of 75%, and FSD subscription take rate of 20%, that would be $1,419,000,000 a month in revenue. Obviously that number increases as take rate increases and the fleet size grows. This assumes FSD price doesn't increase as FSD capabilities increase. Even with 5M fleet size and 10% FSD take rate, that is still over $1B a year in recurring revenue. Not sure what the margins are for this, but I'm assuming they are pretty high.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
I think you may have suffered a concussion during that fall.
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I wasn't going to post this until I reached a certain round number (not far to go now). For those who aren't aware, horrible histories is a children's' educational program/ book series. This song is about "the world's richest geezer", which is how some of us are feeling this week
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