Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I have to admit, I unloaded 10% of my chairs Fri/today. Jury's not out yet, but I'm still sour on the economy overall.
That said, not the least bit concerned if it continues.
Grateful!

 

[BitJam]

Interesting. Opening up the supercharger network should help sell non Tesla EVs. [...]

I know demand is through the roof currently but is anyone concerned that long term this could put a big dent in Tesla sales?

Long term it's another brilliant move. Every non-Tesla EV that charges at a Supercharger is more money for Tesla to expand their network and less money for their competitors. This is a positive for everyone who wants to see more Superchargers. It's also going to be more free advertising as non-Tesla EV drivers get to see and meet happy Tesla drivers.

Imagine if all of the best (by far) gas stations were branded by Ford. And you keep filling up your crappy Chevy next to the spiffy Fords.

Finally, helping sell more non-Tesla EVs is (an implicit) part of Tesla's mission statement:

Create the most compelling car company of the 21st century while driving the world's transition to electric vehicles.

Even with Tesla's current exponential growth, non-Tesla EVs will be needed to meet demand and speed the transition.

 

[UncaNed]

I have mixed feelings about the inclusion of non-Teslas being able to charge at Tesla Superchargers, though if Tesla likes it I'm inclined to favor it.

The Bad:

For one, are hybrids with a tiny battery going to try to charge there? Will these cars have to shut off their gas engines to charge I presume? Hopefully no hybrids allowed.

There's a certain elan to the Supercharger experience being 'all Tesla'. I love this. Seeing a bunch of random EVs won't be as cool....or will it be better? I love the Tesla-only vibe right now.

Congestion is a thing in certain EV-heavy hotspots such as California high-traffic Superchargers during holidays. This is already an issue now.

Non-uniform charging points on non-Teslas. Right now things are organized with an all-Tesla charging party. A lot of cars won't have trouble accessing their charging port, but I can see LEAF owners sticking their rear ends out too much so they have room to get the charger to the nose port. Others may be tempted to take more than one stall in a pinch, which Tesla have said they will explicitly warn against. This could cause conflict if some obstinate non-Tesla owner decides to test this in full view of Tesla owners.

Another potentially chaotic situation is that someone with a charge port on the right side of a vehicle may use a neighboring stall (to the right) to charge. This is effectively taking two stalls, which Tesla will explicitly warn against. Non-Tesla owners have to input their stall number, but if they lie and say they're in stall 2 (to their right) and are parked in stall 1 then they could game the system and still take two stalls. Tesla owners aren't going to be happy about this, and it wouldn't be intended usage per Tesla. Hopefully they have a way to prevent gamesmanship.

People can buy non-Teslas with far less of a penalty now because they still get to use Tesla Superchargers. Tesla does not have a demand problem but this network being Tesla-only was a perk for Tesla owners and a reason to buy a Tesla. Having owned a LEAF formerly, that network was pathetic....if one can call it a network. This really is a factor for some, but there are good sides to non-Tesla owners being in close proximity to Teslas as well (below).

Some non-Tesla owners will be haters despite using the network. This won't be good for area upkeep, vandalism, litter, etc.

The Good:

Tesla's mission is to "accelerate the world toward sustainable energy" and this dovetails perfectly.

As others have noted, non-Teslas will pay more, will have to note the stall they're in, won't have full app privileges, and will have proximity to Teslas and their owners. This will cause some people to just move to a Tesla. Being around an ingroup can make one want to join that ingroup.

Reduction in hostility between marques. Hey if someone is relying on the Tesla Supercharger network, they're going to build some affinity for Tesla if they didn't start out that way. It's a huge favor to non-Tesla marques. This assumes non-Tesla owners play nicely and don't block stalls due to their charge ports being on the 'wrong' side of the car. This may affect how future EVs are designed. Who's gonna put a port on the right side of a vehicle now if they can design a new EV that they know will be able to use a Tesla Supercharger?

More revenue for Tesla, though I understand that this isn't intended to be a revenue generator so much as a means to an end (charging on the go).

This is another way to reduce the incidence of ICE vehicles. Someone who really wants a non-Tesla EV now has far less range anxiety overall, especially for long trips. Net benefit relating to Tesla's stated mission.

Eventual standardization of charging, all run and controlled by Tesla. I think other marques (not just owners) should have to pay for this much like EV tax credits because this is a huge benefit to them. I do think charging does eventually need to standardize, and it could be Tesla's goal to BE that standard. That I support, and the incidence of charging stations will obviously go up in the future. It's still early days yet.

And inclusion brings more customers to the businesses hosting the Superchargers. Those businesses deserve all the customers they can serve. I favor shopping at local stores with Superchargers even though I'm not charging, just to support them.

 

[jbcarioca]

Not exactly. Non-Tesla users have to unlock their phone, start the Tesla app, select the Supercharger site, and then select the stall they are plugging in to before any handshaking will start. So not exactly as Tesla owners do.

You are correct. My error! I was thinking only of the payment process, not initiation otherwise. Many non-Tesla networks are more cumbersome than that.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

You gotta love it when people who do nothing but sit around watching their net worth go up due to the work of others, then smugly insist that those others should not stop working. Greed at its finest.

Hey, I'm working weekends, granted, as little as possible, just so I can have time to watch the ticker. Thank you very much.

Also, it was implied that those employees were probably richer than me. So by wanting them to keep working I would also be telling myself that I should be working ... or something.

 

[StealthP3D]

Actually, not so. Non-Tesla users download the Tesla app and provide payment method exactly as Tesla owners do. Thus no handshake in any way different that those of Tesla. That, to be sure, is a huge positive in user experience!

I don't think we know this yet. The one non-Tesla video I've seen did appear to take longer to start charging. It wouldn't surprise me if a non-Tesla had a more extensive handshake before starting to charge, especially if the user doesn't have a Tesla account. Buying a Tesla is a much bigger commitment than simply downloading an app to your smartphone.

 

[Gigapress]

You gotta love it when people who do nothing but sit around watching their net worth go up due to the work of others, then smugly insist that those others should not stop working. Greed at its finest.

Being a shareholder contributes nothing to the mission. Kudos to Elon and all Tesla workers. To those going along for the ride, don't get confused and pat yourself on the back overmuch.

Being a shareholder does contribute to the mission in a major way.

1) Someone had to provide the initial capital for starting up the company and occasionally fundraising with equity offerings. The expectation of being able to sell their stake to new owners in the future creates a powerful incentive for doing this. The shorts and haters almost took the company down in 2017 and 2018. We helped defeat this malicious effort.

2) Driving up the stock price increases the market value of the employee compensation and improves morale.

3) Driving up the stock price increases public awareness of the company and its products and mission, attracting more demand, long-term supply contracts and more talent to work there. Also it increases the political capital of the company and its message. The meteoric rise of TSLA is surely a major cause of the proliferation of ICE ban deadlines in nations around the world, for example.

4) Ownership means rights to vote on what the company does. We owners can protect the company from hostile takeover and from BS proposals like many of those proffered at the annual shareholders meeting. We can also approve controversial decisions like the Solar City acquisition.

 

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455104233066348546

 

[Spacep0d]

And inclusion brings more customers to the businesses hosting the Superchargers. Those businesses deserve all the customers they can serve. I favor local stores with Superchargers even though I'm not charging, just to support them.

I'm all for that. Businesses near Superchargers will benefit greatly. There was an amazing international market at the Santa Clarita Tesla Supercharger....I love (and miss) that place!

 

[Baumisch]

Tesla could assume good faith but charge $idle fees for the blocked stalls.

No they can‘t - Tesla doesn‘t realize where you park - they only know that your car is connected to a certain Stall - but not if you park on this stall‘s spot, another one, across stalls, behind the stall … etc … The Norway Pilot is gonna be interesting over time I guess - I am waiting for Bjorn to do the ultimate multi-EV test on a big SuC site.

 

[ZachF]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455104233066348546

I don’t understand writing F’23 instead of 2023… it uses the exact same amount of characters and even takes *longer* to type.

 

[Stretch2727]

Can't wait to see @The Accountant 's estimates for the revenue that opening up Superchargers will bring to Tesla...

I think you have given @The Accountant an almost impossible task.

Likely most of the superchargers have large demand charges from the electric utility. These are based on the peak usage only and reduce if your utilization becomes more consistent.

Load Factor & Commercial Demand - Lower Your Electricity Bills

Your load factor impacts your commercial electricity bill. Calculate load factor, learn about demand charges and how to lower your bill.

electricityplans.com

By opening the superchargers Tesla is likely selling electricity they already paid for whether it was used or not based on the demand charges and load factor.

 

[Spacep0d]

No they can‘t - Tesla doesn‘t realize where you park - they only know that your car is connected to a certain Stall - but not if you park on this stall‘s spot, another one, across stalls, behind the stall … etc … The Norway Pilot is gonna be interesting over time I guess - I am waiting for Bjorn to do the ultimate multi-EV test on a big SuC site.

This is my primary concern for vehicles with ports on the right rear of the car. I don't know which vehicles these are, but if Tesla owners are left to enforce this it's going to create tension and conflict. Tesla may be able to accommodate this with specific chargers for right-side charging vehicles, much like they have nose-in stalls for cars with trailers or bicycles on the back.

There will probably be some strategies for parking that don't block stalls or driving areas, but that would be specific to a peculiar layout. Adapters with long cables (suggested earlier in the thread) might help but that may slow charging speed as mentioned. Another reason to buy a Tesla?

 

[StealthP3D]

Being a shareholder does contribute to the mission in a major way.

1) Someone had to provide the initial capital for starting up the company and occasionally fundraising with equity offerings. The expectation of being able to sell their stake to new owners in the future creates a powerful incentive for doing this.

2) Driving up the stock price increases the market value of the employee compensation and improves morale.

3) Driving up the stock price increases public awareness of the company and its products and mission, attracting more demand and more talent to work there. Also it increases the political capital of the company and its message. The meteoric rise of TSLA is surely a major cause of the proliferation of ICE ban deadlines in nations around the world, for example.

4) Ownership means rights to vote on what the company does. We owners can protect the company from hostile takeover and from BS proposals like many of those proffered at the annual shareholders meeting. We can also approve controversial decisions like the Solar City acquisition.

I agree with all of what you wrote (except the word "major") but I still don't think individual shareholders get much of the credit because this is just the nature of how capitalism works. I would give more credit to those who bought into Tesla because they believed in the cause, not because they thought it would succeed as a business. Elon fits that category (he put his entire net worth into it even though he thought it would likely fail). Then, on top of that, he's spent much of the last 20 years making it happen.

Elon kudos: ==============================================================================================>
Fanboy kudos: .

 

[Nocturnal]

Haven't confirmed, but the rumor on Twitter is that Tesla is allowing stand alone Powerwall purchases again. = battery supply

They are also selling a J1772 Tesla wall charger now. Looks way cooler than most of the other options out there.

J1772 Gen 2 Wall Connector

Charge your electric vehicle at home with the J1772 Gen 2 Wall Connector, a convenient home charging solution for electric vehicle owners. Simply plug in overnight and charge while you sleep. Providing up to 9.6 kW (40 amp) power output for a single vehicle, the J1772 Gen 2 Wall Connector...

shop.tesla.com

 

[Prunesquallor]

I don’t understand writing F’23 instead of 2023… it uses the exact same amount of characters and even takes *longer* to type.

Corporate Fiscal Years do not always correspond to Calendar Years (neither does the US Govt).

 

[jhm]

And this is Metcalfe's Law of network effects at play. The number of A to B routes supported by the network scales quadratically with the number of nodes.

Markets with substantial network effects tend towards monopolies or duopolies.

Metcalfe's law - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

It's not obvious that this applies to transportation networks. Most additional nodes just improve capacity and convenience rather than opening up connections a wider driving territory.

 

[UncaNed]

If there is significant time left until expiration you'll essentially be giving away the time value so not a good idea.

Edit: So if you are to to this you should wait until close to expiry so that any time value left in the option is negligable.

No, isn't waiting till close to expiration = more risk, making it more likely they'll expire worthless, or at least worth less than they're worth now if there's a bad macro event or something?

 

[StealthP3D]

No they can‘t - Tesla doesn‘t realize where you park - they only know that your car is connected to a certain Stall - but not if you park on this stall‘s spot, another one, across stalls, behind the stall … etc … The Norway Pilot is gonna be interesting over time I guess - I am waiting for Bjorn to do the ultimate multi-EV test on a big SuC site.

Tesla knows the physical layout of every stall on the network, how long the cord is and where the charge port of every car is located. They would also know if there was a cable extension in use. They also have the right to kick you off the network if you don't follow the same rules everyone else needs to follow (like parking in the spot reserved for each pedestal, not taking up more than one stall and keeping your account funded or paying your bill).

They can charge idle fees for cars parked in the wrong stall since such cars are not actively charging with the dedicated pedestal and, if you refuse to pay it, they don't need to let you use the network. Good luck winning that one in a court of law! Nobody likes rule-breakers that prevent others from using the infrastructure. That said, they would probably not care if the location was only at 25% capacity.

 

[jhm]

Jinxed it.

Bwahahahahaaa!