Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tim S]

Man, I thought the run up after S&P inclusion announcement last winter was crazy... Dumbfounded and dizzy!
TSLA hast doubled since May, tripled since Aug 20, and done a 10x since April 20
...

30x since May 2019

 

[AudubonB]

Look at the black background. That's the 10-yr stock chart in profile, masquerading as mountains.

The boatman is defs Elon, though...

Cheers!

Yes: I encapsulated just that jagged silhouette into my little bon mot. Thus it is not Mr Musk, but Mr TSLAQ, at the helm.

For me, anyhow.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Yes, it works until they break the cycle with fabricated/overblown black swans. It matters who is holding the calls. Right now you can assume that MMs and related institutions hold a lot themselves, as was surmised by @StarFoxisDown! during the summer doldrums.

When do you think they are going to put an end to this? Right now it seems like everyone with real market power, institutions and hedge funds, have an interest in driving the SP up. At what point do we think they will pull the rug? When should I start selling massive quantities of CC's?

 

[Singuy]

Not sure why there’s any debate here. Tesla is the only one that can fulfill that order size for Hertz. Hertz has no leverage because there’s no one else to buy from. Plus they know their customers will want a good charging network….so again no other option.

And mostly notably, they’ve already advertised that they’ll have Tesla’s to rent…..they’ve backed themselves into a corner. No leverage for pricing and based on Hertz CEO’s own comments, I’d venture to guess the contract isn’t signed yet because Hertz wants more than the 100,000 Model 3’s

Don't think there's a real debate but rather some might find annoyance that Elon's attempt of more "stock price is too high" tweets in the form of "stop assigning special valuation to the Hertz deal, it's not even a deal, there's no signed contracts and they make zero difference in the grand scheme of things".

Hertz's announcement just so happened to be on a breakout day anyways due to margin expansion/analyst stock upgrades/forward PE dropping due to margin expansion. So I put the value of that Hertz deal at about zero but Elon is scratching his head as to why Tesla's valuation is moving.

 

[Ogre]

Don't think there's a real debate but rather some might find annoyance that Elon's attempt of more "stock price is too high" tweets in the form of "stop assigning special valuation to the Hertz deal, it's not even a deal, there's no signed contracts and they make zero difference in the grand scheme of things".

Hertz's announcement just so happened to be on a breakout day anyways due to margin expansion/analyst stock upgrades/forward PE dropping due to margin expansion. So I put the value of that Hertz deal at about zero but Elon is scratching his head as to why Tesla's valuation is moving.

Maybe Musk is a little peeved that everyone is crediting Hertz for his team’s accomplishments

 

[Artful Dodger]

Possibly leaving room for an acceleration upgrade through the app. Seems plausible

More likely the increased 0-60 mph time is due to the increased mass of the new 60 KWh LFP bty pack. The Model 3 now likely weighs close to the Model 3 LR, but only has a single rear motor (as opposed to AWD 2 motors in the 3LR).

Cheers!

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So what did they change to give the model Y more range? It was 525 km before. Now it’s 531 km.

 

[dhanson865]

From what I've read, non-Teslas have to start/stop charging from the app as merely plugging/unplugging won't do it. They have to specify which stall they're in as well. Everything's easier (and cheaper) for us Tesla drivers.....and this assumes no reach issues with a non-Tesla charge port.

Starting has to be done a specific way. Tell the app which stall, plug in, use the app to start.

Stopping can be done one of two ways.

* unplug (stops in person, no idle fees possible because you aren't tracked at that point)

or

* use the app (so you can stop remotely if you are eating or whatever, though this does start the idle fee timer)

 

[Singuy]

Maybe Musk is a little peeved that everyone is crediting Hertz for his team’s accomplishments

Elon's is peeved because in his mind there are people who still thinks there's a demand problem with Tesla no matter how many ways he said there isn't. He attribute Tesla's valuation moving due to the Hertz deal because it eased people from thinking there's a demand problem which really grind his gears hence all the tweets. In reality, no one thinks there's a demand problem as Zach made it pretty clear on the conference call the backlog is huge. However, afraid that people may attribute Hertz being the reason for the huge backlog, he is telling people there's a backlog with or without Hertz. He is saying that if demand problem is what kept Tesla's valuation from rising then wtf.

Valuation is increased due to a host of other reasons and it was just coincidence Hertz announced it on the day of a breakout day.

 

[Causalien]

That means a lot to me, Artful. I honestly don’t know what I’d do without this community here everyday. Truly, I grow more and more convicted, and maybe a little obsessed (ask anyone who knows me lol), with this company the more I learn and HODL during the ups and downs of the market.
I really don’t know that much about a lot of things but one thing I do know for sure is through the red and through the green, I’m 100% in this thing for a long, long time to come.

Don't worry, the fomo goes away once you are a teslanair.

You are here long enough now you should be one already or close to it.

 

[S3XY]

Tesla is manufacturing Buffaloes now?

Helping out endangered species is a noble pursuit.

If they send some into orbit, would that become known as the herd shot round the world?

They don't need to send them into orbit. Buffaloes have wings don't ya know.

 

[capster]

I'm sure there's manipulators at work every day to steer the SP where they would like it to be, sometimes succeeding, sometimes not. But the conspiracy talk is getting a bit over the top:

- We had a 43% run-up in October, half of it during the last week
- The stock opens up +3% and goes down to +1%
- Which is still above the ATH closing price of Friday
- On a day when Nasdaq is hovering around 0%.

And then some people cry manipulation...

You or your kids ever jump up and down in a rising elevator? it’s a bit nerve wracking the first few times, huh?

 

[Gigapress]

This reading into the Hertz deal/negotiation is entirely off track, because Tesla have made it abundantly clear in word and in deed that the sole criterion for all their decisions is "What maximizes the rate of transition to sustainable energy?"

Wasting precious time negotiating prices detracts from this objective.

Selling 100k vehicles to a fleet manager means:

1) Roughly 100x increase in the rate of people losing their EV virginity per year per vehicle, accelerating the exponential growth of EV demand and the exponential decay of ICEV demand. (Even if Tesla is limited by production volume, it would help them increase their margins. It also will create increased demand for other EVs as people are deterred by the rising price and long wait times for Teslas.)

2) Prepping for the anticipated robotaxi rollout, which means even more ICE mile replaced even faster.

3) More ICE miles displaced sooner, because rental cars see more annual mileage than privately owned cars (people generally tend to rent instead of using taxi/ride-sharing if they have a lot of driving to do.)

4) Social proof from Tom Brady and a well-known consumer brand adding perceived legitimacy to the EV revolution and signalling that the cost of ownership is reasonable.

 

[MXWing]

Wow, seems Musk has a way out of the unrealized capital gains tax. He can fund his non profit Texas Institute of Technology & Science before a single brick is laid.

"Unrealized charitable donations!"

Man Excited For Giant Refund After Claiming $1 Million Of 'Unrealized Charitable Donations'

RENO, NV—According to sources, local taxpayer Brad Chuckston just finished preparing his taxes and is looking forward to a large refund after claiming $1 million in "unrealized charitable donations."

babylonbee.com

 

[S3XY]

I got this:

Boiled Beans Burning Bean Osmunda
Bean weeping in the cauldron
Originally from the same root
Why are you so anxious?

TSLAQ is the beans.

Maybe his next kid's name?

 

[MC3OZ]

There are already some Tesla charging stations which are like this. I think that’s the pattern they are following when they have the space.

Tough part is charger layout isn’t in the app so you don’t know what you get until you are there.

Ultimately the Tesla app has to be smart enough to only find charging stations where there is a charger the vehicle can use..

New charging stations can add a few chargers of this type, when space permits...

It should also work well for vehicles towing trailers, which we would expect many Cybertrucks to be doing...

Current charger stations only a problem for a few specific makes and models. owners of that type of car are more likely to prefer another charging network...

 

[Buckminster]

So, why care? For a vey large number of institutional shareholders their own investment policies preclude significant holdings below investment grade. Even for those who can do so, many are subject to 'prudent man(sic) rules' imported by regulation or policy. These will suddenly become interested when TSLA reaches investment grade.

This

$1000
€1000
£1000 …

The Great British Pound can easily outrun TSLA.

The longer the base...

 

[S3XY]

I don't like any CEO making public the deal or the negotiations that are happening between their clients or partners. It is perfectly fine to be very business like, firm with a no nonsense attitude - behind the scenes - with a prospective client or partner. But keep those private. If I were Hertz CEO, I would be upset with that kind of attitude displayed in public.

They've already released multiple ads with pretty boy Tom so there's nothing to negotiate. This deal is happening and Elon already stated the terms.

 

[WattsHappening]

Don't worry, the fomo goes away once you are a teslanair.

You are here long enough now you should be one already or close to it.

No, it really doesn't.

 

[Captkerosene]

Maybe Musk is a little peeved that everyone is crediting Hertz for his team’s accomplishments

The Hertz CEO is asking for trouble. He's using TSLA to promote his stock ... trying to make it look like they have the inside track on an autonomy partnership. When Fields was asked if he got a discount on the cars he ducked the question instead of answering truthfully: not only no discount, there was no deal. I hope Elon cuts Ford ... I mean Fields loose.