Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CHGolferJim]

Jim Cramer backing up TSLA today.Why Jim Cramer Thinks It's A Mistake To Sell Tesla On Dip

Seeing this reminds me of when Jim came out with his full support of TSLA around December 2019.
"I'm a true believer"

TSLA was around 80 on 12/9/2019. Then zoomed up to 188 in two months. My vision is clouded by my bias but I see this as another bullish indicator. TSLA will zoom up from here at similar proportions, 1170 => 2340.

Agree with you, Cramer is some kind of proxy/spokesman/entertainer for ordinary retail investors. He understands how to speak to his audience, and like many TV personalities and politicians, he’s simultaneously influencing and being led by his audience.

 

[MindOverMatcha]

I think he has his ear to the ground and hears a lot from Wall Street. It usually is when the direction he is advocating goes counter to the bear case. I think it's due to him hearing from HFs, etc. that they're buying...

Exactly my thinking as well. Looking forward to the coming weeks.

 

[2daMoon]

I think making bearish bets on TSLA is stupid and those who do it shouldn't be complaining when they get caught with their shorts around their ankles.

So, let me get this straight, you're saying that the shortez are ankle biters?

Sounds legit! /s

 

[MindOverMatcha]

Agree with you, Cramer is some kind of proxy/spokesman/entertainer for ordinary retail investors. He understands how to speak to his audience, and like many TV personalities and politicians, he’s simultaneously influencing and being led by his audience.

Indeed, I think I saw a video of him complaining about how TSLA goes up "on nothing" Monday, then today flips over to being an advocate. Wonder if his tune changes based on what he hears from the trading floor, as well as retail sentiment.

 

[Knightshade]

With projected 50% annual growth for the foreseeable future I don't see why that is a problem. They should be picking locations and breaking ground soon for next years new factories.

There are no new factories next year. Though there's 2 that ought begin production before end of this one.


At the annual shareholders meeting last month Elon told us they MIGHT start scouting for locations next year (2022) for new factories, and they will maybe make a decision sometime in 2023 for location.

Which puts 2024 as the earliest possible opening of entirely new sites.


Apart from constraints on supply (engineers, battery cells, chips, etc) there's the fact that they have 2 new factories they'll already be ramping in 2022... and then significant additions to all -4- factories in the 22-23 timeframe to expand production on existing sites.

GigaBerlin is obviously going to make 3s long term even if they start with Ys.

Austin is gonna make CTs (and far more eventually, it's a massive site)

China is the export hub now, and also expected to eventually produce the "cheap" car

Freemont is even looking to expand by 50% (somehow)


So plenty of room for growth without new sites any earlier than what Elon just told us.

 

[dww12]

Making bearish bets by way of covered calls and then whining when you occasionally get burned by a sudden rise in the stock price is not "simply trying to ride the inevitable ups and downs". If you are going to crow about how clever you are by selling covered calls and making small amounts of extra money on a regular basis, then you had better be ready to laugh it off when you sometimes get screwed by Tesla's success.

Me, I play with options all the time to try to juice my returns. But I sell puts, usually short-term, so when I get screwed it's because TSLA goes down a bunch. I think making bearish bets on TSLA is stupid and those who do it shouldn't be complaining when they get caught with their shorts around their ankles.

Now who is bearish if you have cash left to sell puts? If you are all in on TSLA stock and call options all that’s left to do is to sell calls, and then get run over. I would prefer to sell puts but as soon as TSLA runs the only puts you can afford are way out of the money.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Now who is bearish if you have cash left to sell puts? If you are all in on TSLA stock and call options all that’s left to do is to sell calls, and then get run over. I would prefer to sell puts but as soon as TSLA runs the only puts you can afford are way out of the money.

Margin against owned TSLA shares.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Imagine if Avis actually threw in a firm order jumping in front of Hertz and getting the cars Hertz just advertised for.
Pure feeding frenzy

This overt interest in Tesla from Avis Rent-a-Car is an important dynamic going forward. Let's get that tweet into the permanent record here at TMC: (from 2021-11-02, 11-11 ET)

Yaman Tasdivar on Twitter: "On @Avis Q3 call, CFO said: “So we are definitely moving forward on this front. But the reason you haven't heard from us publicly on this is like because of competitive reasons, we like to execute on our strategy before announcing it.” @Hertz More $TSLA orders coming! " / Twitter

In spite of Elon's (understandable) preference for the Tesla Network (TN) for future anonymous ride hailing services (or TAAS as ARK Invest refers to it), the presence of a large, diversified fleet of autonomous capable EVs in the U.S.A. forms an important hedge against at least 2 risks

• NHTSA foot-dragging (slow-walking FSD approval until other U.S. Auto majors can catch up to Tesla's technology over what, 10 years?) means EV-ride sharing requires human operators, a business model which Tesla does not wish to initiate, and
• further Political moves to disadvantage Tesla vs those same U.S. auto majors. If Hertz, Avis, and other large fleet operators are experiencing higher costs due to a discriminatory subsidy regime, then they will act politically and in ways that Tesla (as the target of the discrimination) can not.

Finally, EV fleets by Hertz and now potentially AVIS are in fact implementing the suggestion that Kathie Wood made years ago when she suggested that Tesla create an interim human-operated ride-hailing fleet while FSD/robotaxi is under development (multi-billion dollar TAM). Indeed, the Hertz/Uber partnership does exactly that (thanks for the idea, Auntie Kathie!) while Tesla works to forfill their long-term vision for FSD.

As Elon likes to say, the day FSD goes live with an OTA update will be the largest single event of wealth creation in the history of civilization. Now, is anybody else emotionally prepared for AVIS Mars? Because that's going to be a large day sol as well. Buckle up, Space Cowboys!

Cheers!

 

[dww12]

Margin against owned TSLA shares.

Hmm, my account won’t let me use margin for puts even though it will let me buy several hundred shares w/o the cash.

 

[StrongGuy]

Honestly this is the weirdest logic.

Accuses market for not understanding Tesla's growth as it becomes the few companies with a trillion dollar valuation. The reason for this is because institutional investors are being apes but deep down inside they think Tesla will never expand their revenue to justify current valuation. And you came to this conclusion because Tesla had a sell off of 2% after a 30+% run. That's about sums up all the conspiracy theories?

If the broader market understood TSLA, then the stock would be at $10,000 right now. Institutions acting like apes and riding the FOMO hypetrain isn't new.
I don't know if you know this guy, but there's this person named Gordon Johnson who explains this situation in detail.

In this video, Gordon Johnson explains how institutions intentionally low-ball estimates so that when the actual results come out, everyone has a "congratulatory orgy" over how Tesla beat expectations. This fuels the hypetrain even more.
It's really not a conspiracy. This is straight from the mouth of one of wall street analysts.

 

[ammulder]

If the broader market understood TSLA, then the stock would be at $10,000 right now. Institutions acting like apes and riding the FOMO hypetrain isn't new.
I don't know if you know this guy, but there's this person named Gordon Johnson who explains this situation in detail.

In this video, Gordon Johnson explains how institutions intentionally low-ball estimates so that when the actual results come out, everyone has a "congratulatory orgy" over how Tesla beat expectations. This fuels the hypetrain even more.
It's really not a conspiracy. This is straight from the mouth of one of wall street analysts.

So funny that you should refer us to Gordon Johnson… I never would have seen that coming…

 

[StrongGuy]

So funny that you should refer us to Gordon Johnson… I never would have seen that coming…

The guy is a wall street veteran, and he is simple stating what happens behind the scenes.

 

[ammulder]

The guy is a wall street veteran, and he is simple stating what happens behind the scenes.

Check out that Wall Street veteran on TipRanks. Go ahead…. I’ll wait…

 

[StrongGuy]

Check out that Wall Street veteran on TipRanks. Go ahead…. I’ll wait…

I'm not sure what point you're making.
It seems he made a bad call on TSLA, and since he's a wall street analyst, it sort of proves that institutions aren't taking TSLA seriously. It's still a meme stock to them.
Anyway, this discussion has nothing to do with which wall street analyst make good predictions. That video is simply Gordon talking about what happens behind the scenes on wall street.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

TL; DR: And so it begins: BMW ( parent co, of mini ) asks dealers to take a pay cut to sell its mini ev because “Mini would lose money bringing the car to the US if they did not accept this margin reduction. “ otherwise.

I wonder what company is single-handedly forcing their hand to offer electric minis?

Mini Asks US Dealers To Accept 3% Margin Cut On Next-Gen Cooper SE

Mini is asking its US dealers to accept a 3% margin cut to help offset the 27.5% tariff that will be imposed on the made-in-China next-gen Cooper SE.

insideevs.com

 

[brianhn1]

Starting to see a pattern here:
Not A Flamethrower
Not (A) Model Y
Not A Tesla (Superchargers)
Not A Contract (Hertz)

Looking forward to...
Not A Driver
Not A Earthling
Not A Gordo

 

[lafrisbee]

Because Germany has much stricter building oversight regarding environmental matters. It's temporarily annoying for us as an ethical business, but is generally a very good thing as it stops the more unethical/downright evil companies doing lots of harm. Texas has much less protections, so great for Tesla, but a potential disaster waiting to happen when bad players get to do as they like.

I'll state the obvious one more time. And this time maybe a few more members will reconsider what I believe.
I am not going to write it in a form that won't upset those thta are already very sensitive to the issue. But believe me I have no ill towards anyone today.
Germany was pure damn EVIL for the first half of the 20th century. The country's leadership was nasty as hell, but the people were NOT. The People were just ignorant and very easily swayed. Losing the "Great War" broke Germany and its citizens. It was ripe for a dick to come in and force his beliefs on the people. And Hitler and his party did just that. One of the ways they were successful was to run rough-shod over any aspect or entity that did not aid them. Or could aid the Nazi Party if they destroyed them. NO VOICE was even allowed for The Jewish Community. What was done to them was not allowed to be questioned.
And after the Second World War a new, kinder, gentler, All-inclusive mind set has evolved where every freakin' idiot gets two weeks to stand in the limelight and tell the German People whatever fruit loop thing they feel like before the Government is allowed to even pick its nose.
It is the pendulum swinging back the other way. And that Pendulum in the 1930's and 40's was massive, and swung way far to one side.

ADDITIONALLY: IF Germany was all "Tree-hugging" and doing all they could to stop the evil Industrial entities from destroying the Earth then why was VW allowed to stay intact after diesel gate? yeah, see it ain't about being eco-friendly, sorry.

 

[Stretch2727]

The guy is a wall street veteran, and he is simple stating what happens behind the scenes.

You should probably go back and read posts for the last 6 months.

Actually I think this should be a requirement before new members can post.

 

[StrongGuy]

No, it's the same troll time and time again with a new sock puppet account.

Why aren't Moderators checking IP addresses and banning obvious trolls?

The past 5 pages have been almost 100% replies to the Troll.

Please stop.

Just because I have a different opinion about market sentiment on Tesla doesn't mean I'm a troll.

 

[Prunesquallor]

If the broader market understood TSLA, then the stock would be at $10,000 right now. Institutions acting like apes and riding the FOMO hypetrain isn't new.
I don't know if you know this guy, but there's this person named Gordon Johnson who explains this situation in detail.

In this video, Gordon Johnson explains how institutions intentionally low-ball estimates so that when the actual results come out, everyone has a "congratulatory orgy" over how Tesla beat expectations. This fuels the hypetrain even more.
It's really not a conspiracy. This is straight from the mouth of one of wall street analysts.