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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I can’t tell what’s funnier…..the fact the he thinks his agenda isn’t crystal clear by the 3rd post he made today or that he thinks we’re not fully aware it’s the same person creating multiple user profiles practically every quarter.

Either way, bravo 👏. That was some gold today. The love affair with Gordo makes me think we have a certain somebody here that reads TMC……..
 
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Why aren't Moderators checking IP addresses
Because not that many people have static IP addresses. Checking an ip-address that changes frequently when it's lease is up (I know, but lease is the term for this) doesn't identify anything more than the ISP. If you're like me and have static IP, that's different, but it's not the norm.
 
I can’t tell what’s funnier…..the fact the he thinks his agenda isn’t crystal clear by the 3rd post he made today or that he thinks we’re not fully aware it’s s the same person creating multiple user profiles practically every quarter.

Either way, bravo 👏. That was some gold today. The love affair with Gordo makes me think we have a certain somebody here that reads TMC……..
Every time tsla goes parabolic it’s because ws fomo not retail investors, although retail interests represent 40% of shares outstanding. As for Gordon, i love this guy. Only bad thing about him is his magic halo has been fading. I really hope he can bash tsla more on CNBC and bring down the price a little bit to save everyone’s ccs including mine
 
Every time tsla goes parabolic it’s because ws fomo not retail investors, although retail interests represent 40% of shares outstanding. As for Gordon, i love this guy. Only bad thing about him is his magic halo has been fading. I really hope he can bash tsla more on CNBC and bring down the price a little bit to save everyone’s ccs including mine
Also fb’s retail ownership is less than 19% at more than 40% retail ownership, funds need to score millions of tsla shares from retail investors in the future once credit rating improves. This will bring tsla p/e p/s to insane level that even the most boneheaded bulls here will be astonished. Mark my words. Tsla will surpass msft/appl to be the most valuable company sooner than later, sooner than everyone thinks, including papa Elon
 
CNBC take a lot of advertising revenue from Amazon and Ford, who own big chunks of Rivian. A+F will make money from the IPO, but obviously they don't want RIVN to fall, so CNBC will be one of the tools in the arsenal. Expect lots of positive interest and pumping. Expect lots of "minimisation of risk and coverage of bad news." The reality is, ask yourself how many $billions should a company of this type and maturity be worth at this stage in its growth? Obviously it is overvalued and any negative news could cause a house-of-cards type of fall. Eventually it will climb up and be worth $60 billion, but it shouldn't be for a long time.

Could risk-tolerant investors take some TSLA profits to grab some IPO RIVN? Could make TSLA soft this week.

Broadly I think the TSLA strength will continue nevertheless, today was a "weak collapse" IMO and I don't think it'll continue. It'll become increasingly clear that Hertz and Avis are definitely into Tesla cars, whether there are large contracts signed - or not.
 
Bi-modal distribution of demand, or better, a multi-modal distribution of demand.

People have been attacking demand for a long time with FUD. Trying to take a leg out if possible. It is not working because demand is multimodal.

Each of these Venn diagrams describes one mode of demand, 1) something cool (for the kids), 2) able to support 100K EVs, 3) autonomous operation (lead in delivering).

Some people are good with green washed.. anything. That is one mode of the Tesla demand demographic.

Some people are legit on green. That is another mode of Tesla demand.

I live in an all electric house powered by a 100% wind electric plan. Pretty small footprint.

But one motivation for driving a Tesla is less noble. It is the second level of Maslow's hierarchy, security.

Here is the Venn diagram:

1635902946230.png

There was/is a law that forced all ICE cars to turn off their engines at every stop sign, and then start them again when the driver began to pull out into traffic. Before cars became reliable, they could stall when starting - Especially if loaded (accelerating the car).

For someone who likes margin on performance and believes that there should be no doubt that things should work, this engine off and on thing took all ICE options off the table. I use audio cues to determine if things are right or wrong. Engine off/on crossed all the wires.

There are a lot of modes of demand where Tesla is the only choice. I feel like the audio is that way, but I have spent little time in ICE cars since they went to 4 cylinder turbos and piped in engine noises. So if someone knows about the audio performance of other cars, please pitch in.

Is Tesla the best sound system in any car? I think it is, but cannot speak with authority.
 
S3 put out a new paper on the TSLA short interest on Thursday, 10/28:


Some interesting things:

As of October 26th, TSLA short interest was $30.15 billion, 29.61 million shares shorted, 3.64% Short Interest % Float, 3.51% S3 SI % Float (which includes the synthetic longs created by every short sale in the trade float denominator), 0.30% stock borrow fee.

Total $ short interest hit its high point of $51.0 billion in January of 2021.

Continued short selling in 2021 brought Tesla’s shares shorted and SI % Float to three-year lows in August of 2021. Over the last two months we have seen a resurgence of Tesla short selling, bringing Tesla shares shorted off its lows in both shares shorted and SI % Float.

And what have the shorts been doing during this run up?

Over the last thirty days we saw a +1.19 million increase in shares shorted, worth $1.22 billion. This was a +4.2% increase in shares shorted even as Tesla’s stock price rose +32%. Over the past seven days we saw +308 thousand shares of new short selling, worth $313 million, a +1% increase in shares shorted with Tesla’s stock price rising +18%. Tesla short sellers seem to be shorting into the rally expecting a pullback from an overbought or overheated market.

Why shorting more. :eek:

How much have they lost?

Tesla shorts are down -$52.8 billion in net-of-financing mark-to-market losses since 2019 with most of those losses occurring in 2020. Tesla short-side mark-to-market losses prior to October 2021 were “only” -$2.0 billion but Tesla’s recent price surge added -$7.2 billion in mark-to-market losses in less than a month.

How much more shorting do you think they were doing today?
 
If the broader market understood TSLA, then the stock would be at $10,000 right now. Institutions acting like apes and riding the FOMO hypetrain isn't new.
I don't know if you know this guy, but there's this person named Gordon Johnson who explains this situation in detail.

In this video, Gordon Johnson explains how institutions intentionally low-ball estimates so that when the actual results come out, everyone has a "congratulatory orgy" over how Tesla beat expectations. This fuels the hypetrain even more.
It's really not a conspiracy. This is straight from the mouth of one of wall street analysts.
Man I hate to add to my "list" ....but this is over the top stupid.
 
Seems like republicans are sweeping Virginia which is considered as an upset since it's a pretty blue state. Market will see this as an early indicator of what will happen in 2022. EV tax credit bill is running out of time, however stupid taxes on the rich are fleeting as well. Also this lowers the chance of raising corporation tax to pretrump levels.
 
As Elon likes to say, the day FSD goes live with an OTA update will be the largest single event of wealth creation in the history of civilization.
Of course NHTSA will characterize this event as a recall just like they did when Tesla recently updated FSD beta OTA. Or when Tesla added a new safety feature OTA that no other automaker has. NHTSA issues bogus recalls for Tesla the way Oprah gives away cars.
 
That has a cost, and that is called risk, I believe? How many percent is anyone's guess.
And that, my friends, is what we are all playing here. Hate to brake it to you. Am I wright?

Me, now I skimmed off a very small slice of profit today, intending to somewhat reduce my shared mortgage. But don't panic. You do your own thing. And carry the consequences. As do I.
"That has a cost, and that is called risk, I believe?"

Are you serious?

I don't see much risk with Tesla. You shouldn't either.

We've been studying TSLA, hard, since before our first Model S, a 2013. That's when we began buying shares, and we never stopped.

If you watch Steven Mark Ryan or Rob Mauer's YouTube channels, and check this forum daily, you WILL be far better informed than the vast majority of the "experts" on Wall Street. That information gradient is what kills nearly all the risk: you end up knowing far more than almost anyone else about Tesla.

Without taking on another 7-figures of margin (a "risky bet" as you would likely call it?), during this latest downturn over the last year or so, our portfolio would still be in the very low 8-figures, instead of the lower-mid-8-figures.

Suggest you do better research when investing in a disruptive company like Tesla.

That will help you kill the risk and allow you better sleep at night.

Just FYI:)