Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Max-Pain - 1100 (recheck tomorrow morning) .... MM are gonna try their best.

FOMO is over for now ...

the Eyeballing the charts MaxPain Target Price is $1150-1170 right now.

 

[deffu]

"That has a cost, and that is called risk, I believe?"

Are you serious?

I don't see much risk with Tesla. You shouldn't either.

We've been studying TSLA, hard, since before our first Model S, a 2013. That's when we began buying shares, and we never stopped.

If you watch Steven Mark Ryan or Rob Mauer's YouTube channels, and check this forum daily, you WILL be far better informed than the vast majority of the "experts" on Wall Street. That information gradient is what kills nearly all the risk: you end up knowing far more than almost anyone else about Tesla.

Without taking on another 7-figures of margin (a "risky bet" as you would likely call it?), during this latest downturn over the last year or so, our portfolio would still be in the very low 8-figures, instead of the lower-mid-8-figures.

Suggest you do better research when investing in a disruptive company like Tesla.

That will help you kill the risk and allow you better sleep at night.

Just FYI

I agree risk for tsla is low and can be managed. But there is always tail event. For tsla, it’s not minuscule. If one day Pooh Winnie listens to his yesmen and decides to invade Taiwan, which looks more and more likely. Tsla is ****ed, at least for a long period of time

 

[CLK350]

Check out that Wall Street veteran on TipRanks. Go ahead…. I’ll wait…

Don't waste your time, put StrongGuy on your ignore list - IMHO

 

[Zero CO2]

I'm beginning to wonder if Giga-Berlin should have instead been Giga-Anywhere Other Than Berlin....

the location decision for GF4 bothered me back in 2020 ... this was exactly my concern ... that they would be making Tesla jump through all kinds of hoops ... then i came around to support the idea as progress was pretty good for the most part ... however, now Tesla has invested a S%#t ton of capital and are getting jerked around by the govt process ... German OEMs have a lot to lose here ... this may not be resolved this year ... i hope i am wrong

 

[Zero CO2]

I'm not a mod and might easily be going too far on this:

I'm seeing some posts that seem to be breaking up the investor world into us (this thread) and them (the selling options thread). Or maybe it's us (the selling options thread) and them (this thread).

Whichever - I really, really hope that goes away.


Back when we had two threads - the short and long term investor thread - there was some similar conversation now and then. Was a particular topic a short or a long term topic? Who cares - it's an investor topic. And thus were the two threads collapsed into one at some point in the past (along with a decision that this thread would no longer turn over into a new thread each year, with the turning of the calendar).

The nice thing today is that we have two threads where the smaller thread has a well enough defined theme, with enough interested people in that theme, that it can take activity away from this main thread and be active on its own (the prior long term thread never had that). This helps those with interest see more of what they want, while helping those without interest avoid the need to scroll past that content.

We should all be happy with how this has developed. We're all investors in Tesla. We all want more info and to do better with it. And getting the activity spread out this way is good for us all.

We're not two different classes of investors. Rather we're all investors with different focus to how we go about things.

hate to admit it but for me this is "The" All things Tesla Thread" and the only one i read now ....other TMC threads don't have near the knowledge on almost all Tesla Investing topics you could imagine and a lot of OT stuff that is pretty entertaining also ... it is hard to keep up ... save some missed pages for a rainy day ... it is actually quite entertaining reading the older pages

 

[Discoducky]

Just because I have a different opinion about market sentiment on Tesla doesn't mean I'm a troll.

Help us understand your background a bit. Ours is in this thread. You can search with key words.

The Tesla Bears are less and less each quarter, but GJ isn't what he appears. He's the biggest bear and he's vocal.

Check this out...from 3 years ago

And this for more context:

Please do a bit of watching and report back.

 

[Zero CO2]

The guy is a wall street veteran, and he is simple stating what happens behind the scenes.

is that you Gordon??? ... come we know your in there behind the make up

 

[2daMoon]

Regarding the Hertz hoopla, maybe someone has brought this up, but I had ten pages to get through and may have missed it.

Has anyone offered the possible conclusion that Hertz may have hired staff to go to the Tesla site and order all or most or many of the 100K cars the same way everyone else does? Sure, it would be time consuming, but, it would be one way to have done it.

Several have reported seeing Tesla cars in Hertz inventory already. I don't know, but this suggests to me that they may have been accumulating cars for a while already. Who knows, perhaps these orders are a big part of what has extended lead times?

Just a thought. Might be wrong, but it is not impossible, just highly improbable that they could have ordered some or all of their Tesla fleet this way.

Basically, er, essentially what I'm saying is that there may be no "deal" at all and all the fuss is a product of some of those reporting being unfamiliar with a no-dealership/no-bargaining type of car purchase.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I agree risk for tsla is low and can be managed. But there is always tail event. For tsla, it’s not minuscule. If one day Pooh Winnie listens to his yesmen and decides to invade Taiwan, which looks more and more likely. Tsla is ****ed, at least for a long period of time

An invasion of Taiwan would likely trigger a war and at that point no one will be caring about Tesla if the United States and China, both nuclear powers, go to war with each other.

Actual apocalypse scenarios are simply not valid tail risk scenarios because no one will be paying attention to their portfolios if human civilization ends.

 

[Discoducky]

Agree with you, Cramer is some kind of proxy/spokesman/entertainer for ordinary retail investors. He understands how to speak to his audience, and like many TV personalities and politicians, he’s simultaneously influencing and being led by his audience.

I think the nicest way I can put it is...

Cramer = Trading entertainment

It is the only way someone could flip flop so much on so many companies when it suits his mood.

And the only thing that is consistent is his shtick (comic routine). It is apparent if you look just beneath surface and it ain't rainbows and unicorns.

 

[Discoducky]

Regarding the Hertz hoopla, maybe someone has brought this up, but I had ten pages to get through and may have missed it.

Has anyone offered the possible conclusion that Hertz may have hired staff to go to the Tesla site and order all or most or many of the 100K cars the same way everyone else does? Sure, it would be time consuming, but, it would be one way to have done it.

Several have reported seeing Tesla cars in Hertz inventory already. I don't know, but this suggests to me that they may have been accumulating cars for a while already. Who knows, perhaps these orders are a big part of what has extended lead times?

Just a thought. Might be wrong, but it is not impossible, just highly improbable that they could have ordered some or all of their Tesla fleet this way.

I would think they'd go through this: Enterprise Sales | Tesla

 

[PeterJA]

...Hey......should we be buying Avis puts? Certainly there's no future in car rentals.

There's a future in fleet operation of Tesla robotaxis, which is likely what Hertz and Avis will transition to. They have the infrastructure for car cleaning, maintenance, and resale. And Hertz said they will build charging infrastructure.

I expect such fleet owners to share the market with Tesla's own robotaxi fleet (just as Tesla is sharing the battery production market with CATL, Panasonic, etc.)... at least until Tesla redesigns the cars for automated cleaning. The robocleaners are coming!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm beginning to wonder if Giga-Berlin should have instead been Giga-Anywhere Other Than Berlin....

One does not simply gentrify Mordor. This was always going to be an epic battle. Its no coincidence that last week the President of BMW said Germany shouldn't stop producing ICE engines, just as the permitting process for Giga Berlin is reset. BMW is almost certainly one of the shadowy groups funding NABU. Delay is their only remaining tactic in a losing war to extend the ICE-age.

Best part? We already know how this story ends (Elon is Frodo). <3

Cheers!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I agree risk for tsla is low and can be managed. But there is always tail event. For tsla, it’s not minuscule. If one day Pooh Winnie listens to his yesmen and decides to invade Taiwan, which looks more and more likely. Tsla is ****ed, at least for a long period of time

If the largest economy in the world descends into chaos, it might impact securities values? That's just crazy talk.

 

[MC3OZ]

Please do a bit of watching and report back.

Yep I watched it earlier, the connecting the dots video, rings true to me...

But in context:-

1. Jim Chanos makes money 1 year in 10 - bears occasionally win - but more often they lose.
2. A professional investor once said "The biggest mistake people often make is hold on to a losing position for too long"

So GJ is relatively smart, naturally bearish and finds it impossible to change his opinion on Tesla...

The lesson for us is, evidence is more important than opinion, be guided by the evidence.

Apart from that, GJ gets too much attention here... nothing he says is accurate, relevant, new or important.
Commenting on GJ is like clinging to a losing position.... it is amusing, but we have been doing far too long.

 

[Discoducky]

One does not simply gentrify Mordor. This was always going to be an epic battle. Its no coincidence that last week the President of BMW said Germany shouldn't stop producing ICE engines, just as the permitting process for Giga Berlin is reset. BMW is almost certainly one of the shadowy groups funding NABU. Delay is their only remaining tactic in a losing war to extend the ICE-age.

View attachment 728756

Best part? We already know how this story ends (Elon is Frodo). <3

Cheers!

Exactly. Every car Giga Berlin rolls out will make the eye of sauron less powerful.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It looks fishy, as it would have looked if a group from Vermont Detroit protested Austin Gigafactory.

FTFY.

 

[heltok]

Regarding Elon’s tweet about the Hertz deal not having any economic impact on TSLA. Imo this is wrong.

What will happen from Hertz’s order is that delivery times will go up, then Tesla will raise the prices and make more profit per sold car(also for the cars so to other costumers). This has an economic impact. If Tesla can raise a Model 3 price by $3k that’s 10% extra margins, that’s a lot. And clearly Tesla can raise the prices as they have done so even with cost to produce a car going down with scale, localization and vertical integration. Margins will go up and this will start to show in the next quarters.

If it is hard to see, make a more extreme hypothetical. Let’s say Hertz ordered 10M cars. Would this have zero economic impact with Tesla still being supply constained? No obv Tesla would raise the prices a lot for the people willing to pay a premium to not wait 5 years, lots of Model 3 orders would convert into Model S orders, some Model S orders would convert into Plaid orders to not have to wait as long.

TLDR: When you are supply constrained, more demand will increase your margins which has an economic impact.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Hmm, my account won’t let me use margin for puts even though it will let me buy several hundred shares w/o the cash.

You need to call your broker and tell them to increase your options approval level.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

I agree risk for tsla is low and can be managed. But there is always tail event. For tsla, it’s not minuscule. If one day Pooh Winnie listens to his yesmen and decides to invade Taiwan, which looks more and more likely. Tsla is ****ed, at least for a long period of time

True, there are ALWAYS macro risks which can derail any investment, but, over time, these too will fall by the wayside.

The end game is to simply invest as much as possible in a really great company. The rewards will come, and they come faster if margin is used--with care, of course. It's a force multiplier and when you know you have a knowledge gradient over the shmucks on Wall Street, it's time to use margin . . . .