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A balanced view of NHTSA’s biases and silliness as well as a strong testament to Tesla’s efforts in saving Emergency Responder’s lives.

 
Speaking of not irrelevant numerology, because EMSK - what's special about 934,091 ? its prime factorization is 229 x 4079 .. or is it a message that it is not a random fact that this is the number sold ea Monday?

from Dave Lee's Tweet :

" Interesting to note:
1. @elonmusk exercised ~2.1m shares last Monday and today (Monday).
2. After exercised, he sold the same 934,091 shares both days. "

View attachment 733505

The reason I have a bit of confidence in the maths is due to the weekly Monday sales appearing to be structured through a 10b5-1 plan. That, coupled with the fact that this Monday is identical to last Monday, looks like a set schedule intended to run until the last option has been exercised. If that's the case, we might have 1-2m shares left this week before it comes to a weekly trickling. We'll see tomorrow and Wednesday.

It’s not eight weeks it’s only seven. EM hasn’t unlocked the last remaining tranche of his 2012 compensation package. So you’ll have to subtract 934k from 15.568M. If you and @mongo are correct we’d only see about 3M shares sold the rest of this week.

Hi,

The 10b5-1 plan was set up in September to handle some portion of Elon's 9 vested option tranches from the 2012 CEO Plan. The past two Mondays, one tranche has been executed with immediate sale of shares to cover taxes (given the identical counts at different stock prices, looks to be a fixed value).

My post was only meant to be a lighthearted attempt at prognostication regarding extrapolation from a whopping two data points. Even if next Monday has another sale, it's only a pattern until it isn't.

Edit: is this all a punishment for using abbreviations*? Have we created the MMD (Musk Monday Disposition)?

*unless you're a boy band member, then maybe it's Mmmmmda.
 
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I always knew Bernie was anti billionaire, however I was unsure why Elon musk was wanting to come so hard at Bernie.

I understand Bernie's latest tweets was pretty much implicating Elon but he didn't tag Elon's twitter or mention him by name. It seems though that Bernie went REALLY FAR in prior tweets - stating Elon shouldn't be allowed to exist. By extension, invalidating all the good works of Tesla, SpaceX, etc.

Not particularly interested in bashing Bernie (lets be honest, his platform is self bashing) - but it is helpful to know that in Bernie's ideal world, we wouldn't have an Elon.

This was news to me and adds some much color and context on why Elon gives zero bothers on affect to SP to dig at the foe who wants to deny his existence.



257607909_10158597060601538_7725214995381694761_n.jpg
 
I personally know several of the better known posters that have left here and others that stay off here as a direct result of a specific moderator. It's not TMC really it's this thread sadly.
On the flip side, this thread has the best signal to noise ratio on the Internet. Having seen many other fora, I don’t see how that can be achieved without aggressive moderation. Kick/ban for the win.
 
The evolution of Tesla’s technologies will disrupt world economies; it will disrupt employment as we know it. I’m unsure how Tesla or TSLA can be discussed without a full and open discussion regarding politics. That said, my hypocrisy strains to the point of snapping when considering herding cats. When herding political cats, it just snaps. I would never choose to moderate such a forum.

To the Mods:

“I certainly understand your resistance to political discussion, however, as Tesla’s success builds, these matters will only become more and more intense.”

Maybe we should have a sub forum for the discussion of TSLA politics, economic matters, and universal basic income.

Just my 2¢
My new, post-BOT thesis is that Tesla and/or MUSK INC will become CHOAM-like. It might take a couple of decades, or half a century, and it will for sure be a rocky ride.
As that unfolds, politics will play an increasingly important role.

Perhaps we can discuss that in an abstract way, in a civil manner - if possible. Not sure it is, though ...

Steering totally clear of politics is fine and understandable and perhaps the best course of action, but I suspect politics will just continues to creep in as Tesla gets larger and larger - regardless if we like it or not.

For, in the future, how will it be possible for peope to avoid having an opinion about the most important organization - and leader - that exists? It wil be like having no opinions re. the weather.
 
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If Tesla would start using Semi between Giga Nevada and Fremont now that would bode well for Pepsi later this year:

EDIT: Looks like there was actually a visit by Pepsi to Giga Nevada yesterday!

EDIT2: Wasn´t aware that Tesla had built a low-volume line at Nevada, linked in article above:

So there might be some substance to the theory that they´d start with a few per week (fitting with Elon saying they cannot do volume production yet).
 
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So far, one confirmatory statement early on in this affair from Martin Viecha - one which in the abstract is in itself bizarre (would he say the same about you and your shares? Should he? Has he the right to?) - is the sole, although I concede validating, way we have to judge M KoGuan's position, up to that time.

Martin verified Leo's status upon direct request. Nothing improper there.

SmartSelect_20211116-033851_Firefox.jpg

My shares are indirectly held, so no M.V.P for me.
(Martin Viecha Proof)
 
I always knew Bernie was anti billionaire, however I was unsure why Elon musk was wanting to come so hard at Bernie.

I understand Bernie's latest tweets was pretty much implicating Elon but he didn't tag Elon's twitter or mention him by name. It seems though that Bernie went REALLY FAR in prior tweets - stating Elon shouldn't be allowed to exist. By extension, invalidating all the good works of Tesla, SpaceX, etc.

Not particularly interested in bashing Bernie (lets be honest, his platform is self bashing) - but it is helpful to know that in Bernie's ideal world, we wouldn't have an Elon.

This was news to me and adds some much color and context on why Elon gives zero bothers on affect to SP to dig at the foe who wants to deny his existence.



257607909_10158597060601538_7725214995381694761_n.jpg
Is that september 15th 2020 tweet real? I don't find it.
 
When KoGuan Leo made a cannonball-dive high-profile entrance into the world of TSLA, I wrote that his words did not pass the smell test, although that I would be happy to be proven wrong.

So far, one confirmatory statement early on in this affair from Martin Viecha - one which in the abstract is in itself bizarre (would he say the same about you and your shares? Should he? Has he the right to?) - is the sole, although I concede validating, way we have to judge M KoGuan's position, up to that time. Subsequent to that, he claims to have made quite a few billion dollars' more investments into TSLA.

The more he so claimed, the more uneasy I have become. A man who recently has created a company with ~$11 billion in sales may be a billionaire, but he very likely is not one who has marketable amounts of billions he can plunk down as effective cash. In other words, to acquire what he claims to possess requires some combination of borrowing and derivatives trading. BOTH of those activities are ones that engender either call-ins (former) or big-time losses (latter), when the high-flying stock he is amassing hits an air pocket.

And THAT means that the person many of you have been paying obeisance to can turn out to have been someone whom you may, unfortunately sooner rather than later, wish that you never have heard of.

That I may be wrong here. His silence, though, does not bode well.
My 2 cents.
Uncle Leo has not gone Chamath on us so far.
Getting margin called and having to close positions is a lot different than misleading.
Looks like he was aggressively buying options on margin. If he converted most of them to shares and deleveraged at recent 1200s his account will likely survive. If he kept doubting down to achieve that mystical 88888… shares he might be in a bind
More data needed to judge intent and character
 
But ... Elon is the opposite of Wall Street.

So we must ask ourselves why do they target Elon Musk (Planet saving, self made entrepreneur working 100h a week) but ...
- not Bill Gates (retired former Monopolist and recent Epstein buddy),
- not Walton Family (who just lucked out with Inherited Wealth without ever working much)
- not actual Wall Street like the owners of Blackstone, JPMorgan Chase, The Carlyle Group or Kohlberg Kravis & Roberts ?

Once we ask this question the answer is clear: It is not really about tax dollars and it is not about inequality.

It is politics.
Sometimes we forget that not everyone is on TMC.
They don't have a great way to separate the signal from the noise. And the noise is deafening. Elon is probably the hottest name in the SEO of the last few years. You put his name somewhere and all hell breaks loose.

I've built myself a mental model of Elon Musk (who he is, what motivates him, is strengths and weaknesses...) over 6 years, reading this forum religiously every day and articles and watching Youtube videos and reading Vance bio, etc.
Have you by chance read any article from the WP or NYT in the last few years? Bloomberg or CNBC or other media?
Have you payed attention to what happened on social media with the infamous Musk tweets (pedo guy, private at 420, Covid!...)
Elon uses twitter like a 15 years old with 64 millions followers. Of course he gets flak, it's part of the game. He's the richest man in the world, has an ego the size of Texas and the sense of humor of a pre teen. He likes to troll people.

All the billionaires you mentioned spent *decades* and hundred of millions carefully crafting their public persona.
Or even better, they make themselves invisible, working and profiting and lobbying behind the scenes.
People don't know that. They read a tweet and get triggered, is how social media works, exploiting your dopamine levels.
Hell, even Elon himself gets triggered and is replying to old Bernie tweets like their are written by him and not from a twenty something social media manager following a script.

Within a pandemic and with the climate crisis that is already upon us, people are scared and angry.
They should be: what do you tell your sons and daughters, nieces and nephews, about the carbon budget we all spent so easily in the last few decades? What about their future? California burns every summer, Canada gets 50° Celsius degrees, and some old boomers still worry about their cruise...
I'm 36 with a three-old son, and I'm terrified about will happen in his lifetime. People are angry and inequality is, beyond any reasonable doubt, one of the culprit of the climate crisis.

I think Elon is an ass sometimes, but he can be, I don't care. He's not perfect and I did not marry him.
I sometimes worry about him following people on twitter that are just fanbois and yesman (I do think this doesn't help him think straightly, nobody can resist that kind of pressure, he's not a Zen monk), but I can't do anything about it. I'd tell him if I could.

The things he's doing with Tesla are absolutely incredible and toward "a better world", for real.
Tesla is literally the main hope I have for a partial solution of climate change.
That's enough for me, and then some.

But people out there don't have this kind of in depth knowledge.
They see him trolling on twitter and think he's a jerk like all other evil billionaires (because there are some evil billionaires).
But he's on twitter so they can reply back. This doesn't happen with the others.
 
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If Tesla would start using Semi between Giga Nevada and Fremont now that would bode well for Pepsi later this year:

EDIT: Looks like there was actually a visit by Pepsi to Giga Nevada yesterday!

EDIT2: Wasn´t aware that Tesla had built a low-volume line at Nevada, linked in article above:

So there might be some substance to the theory that they´d start with a few per week (fitting with Elon saying they cannot do volume production yet).
This makes sense. It’s logical to start small scale production, get customers to use it in all conditions, get feedback and work on problems that crop up that you have not anticipated even if you are cell constrained.
Once more can be produced you can scale up faster knowing you are less likely to have issues that need fixing.
 
There is a major benefit to ongoing share sale. I think someone called it a "reset" in the price. Last time such price discovery happened was SP500 addition. That price was much lower. What we have now is knowledge of what big players are willing to buy at. So someone was willing to buy all the way down to current price, this is as good as knowing what hand they are holding at this poker table.

Brian Shannon does a lot of work with VWAP, I suggest his book and following him for a while until you comprehend this indicator if you do some short term trading. I am not on a platform that allows playing with VWAP in manners that Brian has expanded into, I think he calls it anchored VWAP. He also plays around with VWAP over longer time frames (I only can see it for a given day). Well, my bet is that the large volume trading hands here is ultimately BULLISH with regards to this analysis albeit painful in the short term. It was just a very short time ago we pierced these price levels to the north, now we are seeing lots more people buying here again.

One other thing, I think it would be fun to pull it off. It seems to me that the entire world of media are parasites feeding off the tiniest little detail related to this societal change. My awareness of this yesterday came with the satellite dish at chargers, saw it here first, then it came in a "news" feed. I think it would be fun to create a fake news item HERE related to TSLA, complete with perhaps a photo and maybe some source that could not be easily confirmed. It would have to be something new, not too vital such that TSLA would quickly deny in public. Then sit back and see who runs the item on their youtube or internet site. If interested discussion should be private...
 
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Sometimes we forget that not everyone is on TMC.
They don't have a great way to separate the signal from the noise. And the noise is deafening. Elon is probably the hottest name in the SEO of the last few years. You put his name somewhere and all hell breaks loose.

I've built myself a mental model of Elon Musk (who he is, what motivates him, is strengths and weaknesses...) over 6 years, reading this forum religiously every day and articles and watching Youtube videos and reading Vance bio, etc.
Have you by chance read any article from the WP or NYT in the last few years? Bloomberg or CNBC or other media?
Have you payed attention to what happened on social media with the infamous Musk tweets (pedo guy, private at 420, Covid!...)
Elon uses twitter like a 15 years old with 64 millions followers. Of course he gets flak, it's part of the game. He's the richest man in the world, has an ego the size of Texas and the sense of humor of a pre teen. He likes to troll people.

All the billionaires you mentioned spent *decades* and hundred of millions carefully crafting their public persona.
Or even better, they make themselves invisible, working and profiting and lobbying behind the scenes.
People don't know that. They read a tweet and get triggered, is how social media works, exploiting your dopamine levels.
Hell, even Elon himself gets triggered and is replying to old Bernie tweets like their are written by him and not from a twenty something social media manager following a script.

Within a pandemic and with the climate crisis that is already upon us, people are scared and angry.
They should be: what do you tell your sons and daughters, nieces and nephews, about the carbon budget we all spent so easily in the last few decades? What about their future? California burns every summer, Canada gets 50° Celsius degrees, and some old boomers still worry about their cruise...
I'm 36 with a three-old son, and I'm terrified about will happen in his lifetime. People are angry and inequality is, beyond any reasonable doubt, one of the culprit of the climate crisis.

I think Elon is an ass sometimes, but he can be, I don't care. He's not perfect and I did not marry him.
I sometimes worry about him following people on twitter that are just fanbois and yesman (I do think this doesn't help him think straightly, nobody can resist that kind of pressure, he's not a Zen monk), but I can't do anything about it. I'd tell him if I could.

The things he's doing with Tesla are absolutely incredible and toward "a better world", for real.
Tesla is literally the main hope I have for a partial solution of climate change.
That's enough for me, and some.

But people out there don't have this kind of in depth knowledge.
They seem him trolling on twitter and think he's a jerke like all other evil billionaires (and there are some evil billionaires).
We’ll said, the difference between Musk and other billionaires is that they play the long game.
They get government to work for them by cultivating politicians in both parties, keep a low profile, do PR whereas Musk doesn’t do that. This combined with his persona puts him at a disadvantage.
 
Maths:
Elon sells 934k share every time he exercises 2.1M options
There are 22.8M options to be exercised
22.8 / 2.1 * 934k = 10.14M shares
He also sold an additional 5.43M shares last week
If he exercises 2.1M options every Monday and sell 934k shares to fund that, at the end of the next 8 weeks, he will have sold 15.568M shares, very close to the 17M number floated around.
Which means we might be looking at a mere 934k share sale every week going forward for the next 8 weeks, not bad at all. Too optimistic?
@dl003
please help, where did 22.8 million shares number come from? I may need to adjust my numbers

S4 form says 26,374,505, 90% of that is 23,737,054.5 shares (~23.8 million rounding up)
since @mongo pointed out only 9 out 10 achieved (so far)
i’m a beginner at this, (but the 934M has shown up twice)

5,274,901 shares x 5 for stock split = 26,374,505 x 0.9 = 23,737,054.5. (correct?)
 
So it will probably be up to the court to determine if JPMorgan lowering the strike price after the Tweet and then only raising it part way back to the original strike price after the going private was cancelled is allowable under the contract.

I also want to buy options/warrants where I can change the strike price without agreement from the other side of the transaction. Where can I buy those?

Either Tesla screwed up this contract by allowing JPMorgan to do this, or JPMorgan thinks the contract wording can be interpreted in such a way.
 
@dl003
please help, where did 22.8 million shares number come from? I may need to adjust my numbers

S4 form says 26,374,505, 90% of that is 23,737,054.5 shares (~23.8 million rounding up)
since @mongo pointed out only 9 out 10 achieved (so far)
i’m a beginner at this, (but the 934M has shown up twice)

5,274,901 shares x 5 for stock split = 26,374,505 x 0.9 = 23,737,054.5. (correct?)
(Maybe 23.8 was intended?ie typo)

Form 4 has all the numbers, but the original award was not evenly divisible by 10, and so the last tranche is different due to the rounding down the original numbers:
Total plan (x5): 26,374,505 was originally 5,274,901 / 10 = 527,490 + 1 share
Vested: 23,737,050 (527,490*9*5 )
Not vested: 2,637,455 (527,491*5)
Exercised so far: 2,107,672 x 2 = 4,215,344
Remaining: 19,521,706
I was wrong earlier, the execution size the past Mondays was not the tranche size. At this rate, it will take 11.26 same sized transactions to execute all the options. So 9.26 more same style events (if all set up identically) .

Effective August 13, 2012, the reporting person was granted an option to purchase 26,374,505 shares of common stock, as adjusted to give effect to a five-for-one forward split of the Issuer's common stock in the form of a stock dividend distributed on August 28, 2020. 1/10 of the total number of shares subject to this option became and will become vested and exercisable each time: (i) the Issuer's market capitalization increases by $4.0 billion above the initially measured market capitalization of $3.2 billion; and (ii) one of 10 specified performance milestones relating to the development of the Issuer's Model X and Model 3 vehicles and our total production of vehicles is attained, subject to the reporting person's continued service to us at each such vesting event.
33. (Continued from footnote 32) If any shares have not vested by the end of the term of the option, they will be forfeited and the reporting person will not realize the value of such shares. As of the date of this filing, 23,737,050 of the shares subject to this option have vested and 2,637,455 of the shares have not vested.