Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ocelot]

MODERATOR: Posting about numbers because you find them funny....REALLY?...is right at the level that separates fifth and sixth graders. Moderators have pounded your collective heads over this for hundreds of thousands of posts. Numerology is still numerology and it still has zero place in an investment forum. Zero, irrespective of whether someone else said or wrote it first....whoever that person is.

If comments by the CEO are being deemed irrelevant to the company and the stock simply because someone doesn't like them it severely limits the usefulness of the forum.

I am more than happy to provide you with a gold-plated engraved invitation to join Reddit or Twitter or some other mindless snarkgroup chatgroup chitterchittertrash group, just as long as you leave here and take with you any who do not know the difference between constructive writing and repeating - even once - moronic jibberjabber of something you read on one of those platforms. Don't you even try to claim that deleted post had any usefulness here. Not. One. Bit.

AND - to every one: ad hominem works both ways. Do you know what "Homer also nods" means? And Homer didn't even have access to Adderall.

Over the years we have lost numerous beneficial contributors. Some have left due to what they claimed to be overactive moderation.

We also banned COVID talk in this thread, the largest buying opportunity in recent times was directly related to that very topic,

Despite @JRP3 , usually disagreeing with all my comments, I at least can see the valuable contributions they have made.

Member since 2007, 20k +posts. So when a member of 14 years gets a very snarky remark essentially extending a “gold-plated” invitation to go elsewhere, I am saddened and worry that we as a collective, have not learned from our previous errors.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Elon being Elon:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1460370293978013699

 

[Boomer19]

the most entertaining part of this whole ~ two weeks is watching gary black absolutely lose his mind conjuring up ways to say the same exact thing…i think he’s found about 75 variants for “i disagree with elon doing the share sale this way” ….good grief, he’s the real broken record. he even has about a dozen polls with the same exact results.

didn’t einstein once say something about repeating the same thing over and over and expecting different results without changing the inputs…

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don't remember seeing any comments on this in the morning but Shanghai Oct Production was 55,554.

Y - 27,894
3 - 27,660

I can practically smell the 300k P/D at this point

 

[vikings123]

Maths:
Elon sells 934k share every time he exercises 2.1M options
There are 22.8M options to be exercised
22.8 / 2.1 * 934k = 10.14M shares
He also sold an additional 5.43M shares last week
If he exercises 2.1M options every Monday and sell 934k shares to fund that, at the end of the next 8 weeks, he will have sold 15.568M shares, very close to the 17M number floated around.
Which means we might be looking at a mere 934k share sale every week going forward for the next 8 weeks, not bad at all. Too optimistic?

Interesting analysis. Probably too optimistic given Elon has said low basis share sale rate significantly exceeds his sale from the option exercise, meaning he could continue to sell core shares this week to hit his target of 17M.

If there is no form 4 tomorrow then I think you might be on to something. Maybe that explains the spike late in the day.

 

[thesmokingman]

View attachment 733508

Oh the poor sunflower.

 

[Boomer19]

the most entertaining part of this whole ~ two weeks is watching gary black absolutely lose his mind conjuring up ways to say the same exact thing…i think he’s found about 75 variants for “i disagree with elon doing the share sale this way” ….good grief, he’s the real broken record. he even has about a dozen polls with the same exact results.

didn’t einstein once say something about repeating the same thing over and over and expecting different results without changing the inputs…

and burry, every time i see he tweets something scathing about elon, i check link to read it and the tweet has been deleted. that behavior is just plain weird. what’s the thought process? hmm i’ll take pot shots at elon, it goes viral. then i’ll delete it.
repeat. bizarre

 

[EVDRVN]

Over the years we have lost numerous beneficial contributors. Some have left due to what they claimed to be overactive moderation.

We also banned COVID talk in this thread, the largest buying opportunity in recent times was directly related to that very topic,

Despite @JRP3 , usually disagreeing with all my comments, I at least can see the valuable contributions they have made.

Member since 2007, 20k +posts. So when a member of 14 years gets a very snarky remark essentially extending a “gold-plated” invitation to go elsewhere, I am saddened and worry that we as a collective, have not learned from our previous errors.

I personally know several of the better known posters that have left here and others that stay off here as a direct result of a specific moderator. It's not TMC really it's this thread sadly.

 

[2daMoon]

SMR getting to the heart of the matter with help from Ross Gerber

 

[Sofie]

Maths:
Elon sells 934k share every time he exercises 2.1M options
There are 22.8M options to be exercised
22.8 / 2.1 * 934k = 10.14M shares
He also sold an additional 5.43M shares last week
If he exercises 2.1M options every Monday and sell 934k shares to fund that, at the end of the next 8 weeks, he will have sold 15.568M shares, very close to the 17M number floated around.
Which means we might be looking at a mere 934k share sale every week going forward for the next 8 weeks, not bad at all. Too optimistic?

But that’s only if he solely sells on mondays and not everyday through the rest of the week.
It seems he’d be done by this Friday if he were to just get on with it all this week. Right? Then no more selling?

 

[dl003]

Interesting analysis. Probably too optimistic given Elon has said low basis share sale rate significantly exceeds his sale from the option exercise, meaning he could continue to sell core shares this week to hit his target of 17M.

If there is no form 4 tomorrow then I think you might be on to something. Maybe that explains the spike late in the day.

The reason I have a bit of confidence in the maths is due to the weekly Monday sales appearing to be structured through a 10b5-1 plan. That, coupled with the fact that this Monday is identical to last Monday, looks like a set schedule intended to run until the last option has been exercised. If that's the case, we might have 1-2m shares left this week before it comes to a weekly trickling. We'll see tomorrow and Wednesday.

 

[Cape Coddess]

well just caught up on todays pages ...wow this forum is in a bad mood .. instead of complaining about Elon selling shares and tweeting you should be gathering dry powder and buying on the prolonged dip ...

bought 6 shiny new TSLA shares today at $985 ...

Exactly this.

Also, for those wanting a switch in the news:

The UN responded to Elon Musk's challenge to prove how his wealth could tackle world hunger by revealing a $6.6 billion plan​

The UN responded to Elon Musk's challenge to prove how his wealth could tackle world hunger by revealing a $6.6 billion plan

The world's richest person said he'd sell billions in Tesla stock and donate the proceeds if the UN could show how it would address world hunger.

www.businessinsider.com

If agreed upon, can this money come from what's being sold off now or will there have to be another sell-off?

 

[MXWing]

Exactly this.

Also, for those wanting a switch in the news:

The UN responded to Elon Musk's challenge to prove how his wealth could tackle world hunger by revealing a $6.6 billion plan​

The UN responded to Elon Musk's challenge to prove how his wealth could tackle world hunger by revealing a $6.6 billion plan

The world's richest person said he'd sell billions in Tesla stock and donate the proceeds if the UN could show how it would address world hunger.

www.businessinsider.com

If agreed upon, can this money come from what's being sold off now or will there have to be another sell-off?

Looked over it briefly. Elon's 6.6 billion would buy food for ONE YEAR - not solve world hunger.

 

[UCF3]

Maths:
Elon sells 934k share every time he exercises 2.1M options
There are 22.8M options to be exercised
22.8 / 2.1 * 934k = 10.14M shares
He also sold an additional 5.43M shares last week
If he exercises 2.1M options every Monday and sell 934k shares to fund that, at the end of the next 8 weeks, he will have sold 15.568M shares, very close to the 17M number floated around.
Which means we might be looking at a mere 934k share sale every week going forward for the next 8 weeks, not bad at all. Too optimistic?

It’s not eight weeks it’s only seven. EM hasn’t unlocked the last remaining tranche of his 2012 compensation package. So you’ll have to subtract 934k from 15.568M. If you and @mongo are correct we’d only see about 3M shares sold the rest of this week.

 

[MD70]

So despite recent controversies, some people are still discovering how good Tesla is, what is surprising is that this from a former top gear journalist and I would have expected him to know this already.

 

[Skryll]

Looked over it briefly. Elon's 6.6 billion would buy food for ONE YEAR - not solve world hunger.

Note also the subtle change in the headline - tackle, not solve.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Looked over it briefly. Elon's 6.6 billion would buy food for ONE YEAR - not solve world hunger.

Did the UN also agree to full and complete transparency about where the money is going and who gets it? Because that's really what's going to make it impossible for the UN to actually follow through with this plan, assuming Elon even agrees since the plan only solves world hunger for 1 year and then after that it's back to starvation I guess.

 

[PeterJA]

I worry that general investors (and the whales) will see TSLA as a risky investment and get turned off to it not because the business isn't executing, but because of the random Tweets.

I have an answer for worries that car buyers will be turned off by Elon's tweets, or panel gaps, or service growing-pains, etc. It goes like this:

Tesla doesn't need them, now or ever.​

The cars are sold out for months. Megapacks are sold out for years. Every week, Tesla's technology gets further ahead, so they can keep selling everything they make... but even if they couldn't, they could keep the production for their robotaxi fleet to replace all 1.4 billion cars on Earth.

Also, I have an answer for worries that stock buyers will be turned off by Elon's tweets, or bad analysts, or media FUD, etc.

TSLA doesn't need them, now or ever.​

Giga Shanghai is still expanding and ramping faster than anyone expected. Berlin and Austin will take production to many millions with greater efficiency, economies of scale, and margins than we have ever seen. The new Lathrop factory will take Megapack production from under 4 to 40 GWh per year. Even bullish analysts are modeling ridiculously slow growth for automotive and nothing from Tesla Energy. The wakeup call to investors will get deafening fairly soon.

Don't worry, be happy, buckle up for a trip to the moon.

 

[Causalien]

I personally know several of the better known posters that have left here and others that stay off here as a direct result of a specific moderator. It's not TMC really it's this thread sadly.

wow, I thought it was just me who is pissed. C'mon, doing this to JRP?

 

[MXWing]

Did the UN also agree to full and complete transparency about where the money is going and who gets it? Because that's really what's going to make it impossible for the UN to actually follow through with this plan, assuming Elon even agrees since the plan only solves world hunger for 1 year and then after that it's back to starvation I guess.

I've detailed holiday lunch spending with a $400 budget that has more transparency and documentation than the WFP.

-
LMAO. This is the "detailed" breakdown: