Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

A little investment advice

 

[mongo]

Are we sure that the MIC Model 3 isn't already updated to the front and rear cast concept? That would explain the massive production increase.

Regarding dual casting: Per Elon on the Q2 2021 call, Texas and Berlin will be the first with front cast Ys.

Regarding a rear cast 3, he could have changed course since February, but there is no data to support such a vehicle (user reports/ crash tests). To do so would take a bunch of validation and changes to the existing functional body line.

 

[ZachF]

Here's a few closing prices to chew on.

Oct 8 - $785.49​

Nov 4 - $1229.91​

Nov 15 - $1013.39​

This is a rise of $444.42 (50+%?) over about a month. A brisk pace, followed by a correction of $216.52 to yesterday's close. A roughly 50% retracement of that gain.

This appears to be reasonably normal behavior, often enough seen in the market. I think this is considered healthier than an extended meteoric rise, and the inevitable larger correction.

To me this looks like equilibrium playing toward balance before the next uptick.

One of my favorite pasttimes has become waiting for TSLA's next uptick, which the fundamentals suggest will most certainly come.

Just thought this might offer data to consider that may help calm some of the worriers.

Don't worry, be happy. We're just throttling back approaching Max-Q before reaching escape velocity.

Edit: Corrected a percentage. Still getting that first cup of coffee into play.

Agreed. This is nothing compared to 2017-2019, going back and forth from Sparta. To the longs!

 

[Krugerrand]

I also want to buy options/warrants where I can change the strike price without agreement from the other side of the transaction. Where can I buy those?

Either Tesla screwed up this contract by allowing JPMorgan to do this, or JPMorgan thinks the contract wording can be interpreted in such a way.

So, even if Tesla screwed up with the contract, should JPM be allowed to act in such a manner?

Not looking for an answer. It’s rhetorical.

If everyone would just choose to do the right thing, overnight the world would be a very different place.

 

[vikings123]

The spike yesterday was caused by a rumor Elon was selling the remaining shares in a secondary.

Or somebody on wall street has inside information to Elon's selling plan....

 

[Krugerrand]

Why can't the stamped items be produced locally at Berlin/Austin (in the medium term)?

They could, but there’s a lot involved (list is too vast) but more importantly the vendors are going to want long term contracts to make the parts. No supplier is going to agree to do all the work involved for a quarter or two, then bank enough parts (that alone requires tremendous square footage) while Tesla repeats all the work necessary to then get the dies up and running themselves.

No. Wayyyyyy too much work, way too much man power required, way too costly and screws the suppliers, who won’t be tier 1 or 2 because that level of supplier would never agree to the situation.

 

[Krugerrand]

Your bold italicised statement above is the point I made in my OP - if the Model Y line(s) in Shanghai are capable of making Model 3s they would have to have rear castings.

Investing in some additional stamping and casting dies for Berlin and Austin would be much less expensive than building additional lines (which would include stamping and casting) dedicated to the Model 3.

Looking at upfront costs only will make you blind to long term costs. The cheapest part of horse ownership is the purchase price.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon not selling this morning? At least not early...

 

[15Peter20]

Too early to draw conclusions other than that it's now all fine and we can start being nice on here again.

 

[ZsoZso]

Is it (back to) hunting season ?

Spoiler

ps: looks like I jinxed it, sorry!
edit 2: or maybe Elon's agent overslept this morning and started the selling spree a bit later than usual...

 

[Artful Dodger]

They could, but there’s a lot involved (list is too vast) but more importantly the vendors are going to want long term contracts to make the parts. No supplier is going to agree to do all the work involved for a quarter or two, then bank enough parts (that alone requires tremendous square footage) while Tesla repeats all the work necessary to then get the dies up and running themselves.

No. Wayyyyyy too much work, way too much man power required, way too costly and screws the suppliers, who won’t be tier 1 or 2 because that level of supplier would never agree to the situation.

Agreed, then there'd be the sales and service problems with having 2 different versions of the MiC Model 3 on sale (unless sales split geographically).

I did note, during the Phase 1 build at Giga Shanghai back in 2019, that there was enough apparent space for two (2) parallel assembly lines in the Assembly Hall.

My supposition is that Tesla China has added a 2nd GA line for Model 3 inside the Phase 1 plant, and is now able to nearly double its output. Still using the stamped body construction, no giga castings yet.

Cheers!

 

[JRP3]

I expect Elon not to sell since this doesn't "solve" world hunger but UN has come up with a proposal

The UN responded to Elon Musk's challenge to prove how his wealth could tackle world hunger by revealing a $6.6 billion plan

The world's richest person said he'd sell billions in Tesla stock and donate the proceeds if the UN could show how it would address world hunger.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[traxila]

Price action from this AM looks good for bulls.

There are buyers at this price range regardless of Elon’s actions which leads me to believe market is stoked about the next two months for TSLA based on fundamentals and people believe this is a good entry even if we go lower. Or could be rattled shorts hedging after witnessing the potential rocket blast yesterday based on rumour of Elon being done.

I will go with buyers.

 

[dl003]

My maths and assumption could have been all wrong, but it seems if I can do it, then shortzes could do it, too. We might be seeing a little bit of short covering in advance of tonight and maybe tomorrow SEC filing. Fingers crossed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"But Your Honor, I was lying in UTAH!"

Trevor Milton loses bid to move or dismiss criminal fraud case

Nikola Motors founder and former CEO Trevor Milton was in a New York court on Monday in an attempt to have his criminal fraud case dismissed. Milton’s legal team was also hoping to have the […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Milton’s legal team was also hoping to have the case moved out of New York to Arizona or Utah on the grounds that the alleged lies were told in those states, and not New York.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Nocturnal]

Too early to draw conclusions other than that it's now all fine and we can start being nice on here again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1460623794553434122

 

[tivoboy]

My maths and assumption could have been all wrong, but it seems if I can do it, then shortzes could do it, too. We might be seeing a little bit of short covering in advance of tonight and maybe tomorrow SEC filing. Fingers crossed.

The “shortzes” have effectively pulled max pain down to ~960 in the past week (for Nov 19 expiry) thats a solid 140$ in a few days. My guess it’ll move slightly lower.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

They could, but there’s a lot involved (list is too vast) but more importantly the vendors are going to want long term contracts to make the parts. No supplier is going to agree to do all the work involved for a quarter or two, then bank enough parts (that alone requires tremendous square footage) while Tesla repeats all the work necessary to then get the dies up and running themselves.

No. Wayyyyyy too much work, way too much man power required, way too costly and screws the suppliers, who won’t be tier 1 or 2 because that level of supplier would never agree to the situation.

I was suggesting that Tesla could stamp these items themselves at Berlin and Austin, as they already do at Fremont and Shanghai. This would be after the Model Y ramp in each case, so we would be talking no earlier than 2023. No contracts with vendors required or need to bank parts.

@Artful Dodger s suggestion of a second model 3 line in Shanghai is another potential explanation for the jump in production (option 1 in my OP) and would be consistent with comments about 1M production rate at Shanghai by H2 2022

 

[Pezpunk]

Sat in a Mach-E last night. The first thing the driver mentioned was how great the EV experience was overall, and how there was no way they'd ever buy a gas car again. The benefits and conveniences inherent to an EV are instantly obvious to anyone who owns one, and yet they remain a tough sell to the uninformed. Word of mouth is the best salesman. Adoption will snowball and continue to be limited purely by cell supply.

Anyway, I was kind and complimentary -- absolutely no point in shilling for Tesla to someone who literally just bought a car. But the experience left me even more bullish that ever on Tesla. The UI compared extremely unfavorably to my 2016 Model S, and the range and performance were on par with a 2014 Model S.

 

[goinfraftw]

How many people have taken a company from Co-Founder -> $1T market cap that's publicly listed on the S&P 500?

Elon Musk
Mark Zuckerberg
Sergei Brin and Larry Page
Edit: Jeff Bezos

...anyone else? Anyone done this multiple times?