Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

Notes taken....

......now what?

Issue the permits and allow Tesla/TSLA to start production and stoke the local economy?

Germany can "fight" Tesla every step of the way, and inevitably lose. Or they can embrace them as a manufacturing powerhouse and reap the benefits sooner.

Ask the USA for notes on how that worked with Honda/Toyota/Nissan back in the 1990s/2000s. The fight was a losing one, and the manufacturers setup local manufacturing facilities anyway which were great for the local economies.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Really? That car is ugly! Maybe just a bunch of old people around here, IDK...
Was it those big lights? Or the painted door handles. Hubcaps?
Looks 80's to me. Nice bumper on the doors though.
I'd be bummed if that was my rental car, for an hour.

View attachment 738477

I don't need a survey to tell me that most posters on this forum thread are privileged, myself included. Making fun of others' transportation choices based on their finances serves noone. There is currently no cheap EV option available, which keeps most people away from purchasing EV over ICE. We desperately need EVs that have acceptable range (200 miles), acceptable costs (<$20,000), without sacrificing premium safety (5 star), and acceptable durability and longevity (20 years), for the masses. Cars to most are simply transportation devices to go from place A to place B, not personal identification statements. Personal design taste is fickle, as we found out when Cybertruck turned design on its head.
Those that can't afford a new EV purchase can buy a used EV after a few years for less, however economy EVs need to be built and sold first before this can happen.
Looking forward to the future.

EDIT: My wife and I drove an original 1986 Hyundai Pony until our early 30s. It had a manual choke like our lawn mower at the time. I never could figure it out and my wife always had to get it started for me. I can only remember we had a lot of fun in that car. The list price for the Pony was $4,999 (Canadian dollars) brand spanking new.

 

[HG Wells]

Well, I was hoping the survey would attract some gold diggers.
Would be a nice distraction.

 

[22522]

Pricing/margin distribution thoughts.

Full self driving wants to have a lot of subscribers, which implies a low price tag.

Full self driving has a very high cost.

I suspect a lot of the recent vehicle price increases are to arrive at a high FSD take rate.

In other words, the initial price of the vehicle covers some of the cost making the cost of adding FSD as a subscription lower.

Note: the cost model on software is not exactly as described here, but the idea of moving the tipping point on a decision is routine pricing practice.

 

[Krugerrand]

We definitely missed a trick on the TMC survey. Should have included a "Do you own an island?" question

I didn’t do the survey because it didn’t ask the question; dog or cat? And without that, it’s not painfully obvious cat > dog and I need there to be pain.

 

[lafrisbee]

Since I’m not in the teslanaire club yet, I have to be content with the emotional island I’m building.

How big does the Tesla moat have to be before you have an "emotional" island?

 

[larmor]

Germany should take notes on how to review, file, and approve permits.

And Texas should take note of how Tesla is allowed to sell cars direct to consumer. Also GM, Ford, etc should also be invited to this note taking session.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Notes taken....

......now what?

Put the notes out for public comment for a month....Then do it again due to legal technicalities.

 

[JRP3]

Those that can't afford a new EV purchase can buy a used EV after a few years for less, however economy EVs need to be built and sold first before this can happen.

You can find a used Nissan LEAF for $10K or less right now.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Issue the permits and allow Tesla/TSLA to start production and stoke the local economy?

Germany can "fight" Tesla every step of the way, and inevitably lose. Or they can embrace them as a manufacturing powerhouse and reap the benefits sooner.

Ask the USA for notes on how that worked with Honda/Toyota/Nissan back in the 1990s/2000s. The fight was a losing one, and the manufacturers setup local manufacturing facilities anyway which were great for the local economies.

Not sure in what way you think Germany is fighting Tesla. The German government at national and local levels is actually very supportive of Tesla. The people that are 'fighting' Tesla in Germany are small environmental groups whose views are not shared by the Greens that are now part of the German government.

If you want to throw stones, they might be better directed at the attitude of the US government. Perhaps you could explain how they are embracing Tesla as a manufacturing powerhouse?

 

[CorneliusXX]

I didn’t do the survey because it didn’t ask the question; dog or cat? And without that, it’s not painfully obvious cat > dog and I need there to be pain.

To paraphrase our illustrious colleague

Often when some TSLA topic or another is controversial I know I can always expect differing views. I treasure posters like @Krugerrand and @bkp_duke, among quite a few others who question conventional wisdom regularly and present well reasoned views. When I totally disagree with them I still learn, and change my mind from time to time.

But not all the time.

 

[lafrisbee]

I'm no financial expert, but stick around and HODL. Good luck, a little helps!

I did notice there is a very large % technical people on this forum. It was the most amazing thing about the survey for me. No nonsense, smart people that can talk not only Nuts and Bolts, but who made the Nuts and what Bolts to avoid, pun intended.

your pun would read better if it were
"who (really) made the Bolts, and what Nuts to avoid."

at least to me.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Well, I was hoping the survey would attract some gold diggers.
Would be a nice distraction.

I could always share the output with Dave Lee or Rob Maurer..?


PS When I get a chance in the next day or so, I'm going to follow-up with analysis on risk - what % are leveraged by # of shares / age / profession? any suggestions / requests? I was wondering if / how the risk profile varied by, for example, country, but I didn't subject us to identifying which country we're from.

Also, I'd be happy to run a follow-up survey oriented around options trading, but I need concrete suggestions as I just don't know the subtleties (thx for your inputs @pz1975, @elasalle, @Lycanthrope ) - what are the questions and what are the optional responses (picklist)? I can create a separate thread to help draft this if there's interest.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't need a survey to tell me that most posters on this forum thread are privileged, myself included. Making fun of others' transportation choices based on their finances serves noone. There is currently no cheap EV option available, which keeps most people away from purchasing EV over ICE. We desperately need EVs that have acceptable range (200 miles), acceptable costs (<$20,000), without sacrificing premium safety (5 star), and acceptable durability and longevity (20 years), for the masses. Cars to most are simply transportation devices to go from place A to place B, not personal identification statements. Personal design taste is fickle, as we found out when Cybertruck turned design on its head.
Those that can't afford a new EV purchase can buy a used EV after a few years for less, however economy EVs need to be built and sold first before this can happen.
Looking forward to the future.

Not sure why you’d be triggered by that post. As an owner of said vehicle for many years, I wasn’t triggered anymore than when people made similar comments about the vans I drove for years.

Don’t take things so personal or serious. Don’t go looking to be offended. It IS an uglish car, that’s why mine was in a cool orange color and was pimped out a bit. As long as it worked, wasn’t relevant what other people thought about it; they’re free to walk and not get in it. Whatever.

 

[bro1999]

You can find a used Nissan LEAF for $10K or less right now.

Maybe an out of warranty Leaf with no DC fast charging and severe battery degradation.

 

[Sofie]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1465293912273211393

We need an eye roll emoji for this. Wow.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1465293912273211393

This is going to backfire on GM in a spectacular way. The younger generation already has little to no interest in GM and it's EV's and they're very aware of Tesla's position as the leader of EV's......GM/Barra are going to be putting themselves in the spotlight, but not in the way I think they're hoping they're being viewed.

Sure it might prop up their stock for the next few months/quarters, but consumers do not like being blatantly lied to when the consumers know the company lying is full of it. I expect this "bravado" by GM to actually accelerate their decline in sales. I sure hope that temporary boost in of 5-10% in the stock price is worth it GM

 

[Rarity]

Not sure in what way you think Germany is fighting Tesla. The German government at national and local levels is actually very supportive of Tesla. The people that are 'fighting' Tesla in Germany are small environmental groups whose views are not shared by the Greens that are now part of the German government.

If you want to throw stones, they might be better directed at the attitude of the US government. Perhaps you could explain how they are embracing Tesla as a manufacturing powerhouse?

No, the "glass houses, so no rocks" approach is very unsatisfying. Reality is apparent and needs to be recognized. Comparisons and contrasts can and need to be made.

Shanghai took about a year to first production. Austin about 16 months. Berlin about two years.

If Berlin is on a two-year construction cycle, then several million vehicles will be built in Shanghai or Austin rather than Berlin, representing hundreds of billions of Euros in business lost to those outside the EU. In particular, I note that much of the automation for these Tesla cell plants is German. But the battery will not be introduced in Berlin. A lost opportunity.

We are in a race to build efficient production capacity that will set the status quo for a generation or more.

 

[lafrisbee]

I could always share the output with Dave Lee or Rob Maurer..?


PS When I get a chance in the next day or so, I'm going to follow-up with analysis on risk - what % are leveraged by # of shares / age / profession? any suggestions / requests? I was wondering if / how the risk profile varied by, for example, country, but I didn't subject us to identifying which country we're from.

Also, I'd be happy to run a follow-up survey oriented around options trading, but I need concrete suggestions as I just don't know the subtleties (thx for your inputs @pz1975, @elasalle, @Lycanthrope ) - what are the questions and what are the optional responses (picklist)? I can create a separate thread to help draft this if there's interest.

here is a dynamic I seldom see data about...
I now have 3x the amount of money I need to sustain my current lifestyle. Or another way of saying, I have 3x my goal. So in risk assessment My "risk point" is will the stock drop over 60% Because at that point I need to worry.
My "risk" is will it impact my lifestyle, not some form of King Midas' perception.
So evaluating risk? A numbers game, or impact on one's life. Two different realms.

 

[JRP3]

Maybe an out of warranty Leaf with no DC fast charging and severe battery degradation.

ICE's under 10K usually are out of warranty and can have a number of mechanical problems. I didn't say you could find a new car for that price.