I did not say that. I did show years with minimal appreciation. Anyway, it seems likely that any logical assessment of risks is not well received in some quarters.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
And for all the new members here, in fighting among members signal a local bottom.
I am sorry for having offended people. I therefore will stop. I have no desire to generate polemic reactions.
I skipped over this particular thread but I generally appreciate your well argued POVs and appreciate people that can swerve against the majority when necessary.
I value your posts, even those I disagree with. I thought it odd that, in my interpretation of your posts, you suggested that because TSLA's CAGR is unprecedented, we should be concerned about growth going forward.
There's an argument to be made that past performance is a good predictor of future performance. Bad companies tend to stay bad. Good companies tend to stay good (due to momentum). There are also lots of reasons why this is unlikely to be true forever for practically any company that ever exists.
I wasn't aware of the huge CAGR in TSLA since IPO. It kind of shocked me. I went back and revisited my own very simple models and I can't think of a reason why I should think that because the growth rate has been so large that it should somehow revert to the mean, or something like that. I only try to look forward.
Anyway, I know there was more to today's discussions between you and others, but I personally appreciate everything you've written, even though I disagree.
u can get it from ebay. I mean both the green card and cybersquad.
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Krugerrand
Meow
That’s not true. Risks have always been discussed here. Perhaps the resistance is that the risk today isn’t even on the same scale as the risk of yesteryear. It’s not 2012, it’s almost 2022. As Elon can be quoted: A lot has happened in 8 years.
Indeed!
Additionally, one must have significant confidence that further risks down the road will simply be met head on by the company as has every risk that preceded it, including the likes of a global pandemic and chip and dip shortages that saw the company thrive.
Nay, one might actually contend that the man and the company perform best when there are significant risks. Where others shy, balk and roll up into a fetal position, risks, challenges and the like makes them dig deeper than anyone else to solve the problems. That would thusly make risks a good thing.
I, for one, value your input. Offending people when you post well-thought-out arguments should be welcomed.
The ones who might take offense can sign up for my scrolling class.
We need more input that is from smart people to help balance da not so smart folks....myself included.
I’m ready to move another $50k into TSLA. Not sure when but I will be doing it soon. Hopefully I can time it before the BBB is passed because I see that as another catalyst of sales.
You didn't offend me. I might be guilty of ranting, but didn't mean it as an attack.
Holy cow, I used to drunk text girls, but now I drunk post to TMC. What the hell happened to me?!
Yesterday was my birthday, so cut me some slack. 
And yes, I remember making the purchase, just not the text.
I’m paying the price this morning. 
Stay strong everybody. Just keep asking yourself where else would you invest your hard earned money and take advantage of this holiday season sale.
Exactly. Think of how much has been de-risked at this point that justifies the current valuation -
Gross Margins/Operating margins - Already proved out. 30% gross, 15% operating margin on just 237k deliveries. Clear roadmap to 30% operating margin within the next 2 years
Production increase to support valuation - Austin/Berlin starting production in mere weeks (or days). Official guidance from Tesla that Fremont will expand by 50% and Shanghai to 1 million production capacity
Demand - How does a 11 month wait list sound? And that's after 6-8k in price increases.
Valuation - P/E down from 1200 to 320, which will go down to low 200's after Q4 earnings. Forward P/E going to be 100 if the stock stays where it's at after Q4 earnings.
The risks/worries have gone from "Crap TSLA could drop anywhere from 20-50% at any random time in a single week" in 2018/2019 to "Well it could drop to this level but here's like 10 different valuation metrics that would offer support and prevent a further sell off".
Tesla still drops like a small cap unlike the other top S&P companies. Can't wait for the day when this company having less Beta.
TSLA could go the way of etoys or Nokia. Or they could go the way of AAPL and AMZN. I bought AAPL in 2001 when the iPod was released (I’ve since many many poor trades but still holding some of that) and AMZN when it was $900/share. I’ve missed many boats but the ones I’ve stuck to have been good to me.
TSLA has the feel of AAPL and AMZN. Its lead is monumental and it has the “cool” factor that doesn’t show up in a balance sheet but does engender loyalty and future purchases.
Every single one of the many teenagers around me go gaga over a Tesla. Even my daughter and her friends. These are the kids that’ll be buying cars in 10-15 years. Could you see a teenager getting excited over a Chevy, Ford or Toyota? Hell no.
I worry that TSLA is overvalued *right now* but, again, I’m a 20 year investor so that doesn’t matter much to me.
Another $50k going in next week.
TSLA has the feel of AAPL and AMZN. Its lead is monumental and it has the “cool” factor that doesn’t show up in a balance sheet but does engender loyalty and future purchases.
Every single one of the many teenagers around me go gaga over a Tesla. Even my daughter and her friends. These are the kids that’ll be buying cars in 10-15 years. Could you see a teenager getting excited over a Chevy, Ford or Toyota? Hell no.
I worry that TSLA is overvalued *right now* but, again, I’m a 20 year investor so that doesn’t matter much to me.
Another $50k going in next week.
bballshinobi
Member
The tell for me is when people say “Just rage bought” or ‘Panic bought”. Usually this means we are still at least 10% away from the short term bottom lol
Words of HABIT
Active Member
@jbcarioca, don't let anyone make fun of your ponytail. Your opinions, as from all others, are welcome here. Individually we are responsible to make our own judgement and investing decisions.
Tesla can only be a Nokia if Musk decides to halt the pace of innovation and be like every legacy auto maker. This is why legacy has a higher chance of becoming the Nokia. So far Tesla is leading in every shape and form. From reducing assembly time to having the most reliable superchargers. Legacy auto is trying to just catch one aspect, any aspect of Tesla and it's making their head spin. Stellantis CEO find themselves stuck at not able to make a profit with EVs, Toyota doesn't even know hydrogen is stupid, Volkswagen is trying to copy Tesla's assembly process, GM is trying to lead by acquiring Nikola(lol) while their cars are on fire, and Ford conceded first place to Tesla while copying everything they can including a knockoff supercharging station.
There's about 0% chance Tesla will be the next Nokia...there's a higher chance that Tesla maybe go too crazy by releasing neural link hacking robots tanking the global economy than getting out engineered by the industrial age competitors.
OT
@jbcarioca
i, for one, appreciate your breadth of knowledge and varied experiences and willingness to share same.
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