Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

As usual if I disagree with you it is probably a misunderstanding. Please accept my apologies.

I'm having trouble with your apology.

I cannot imagine why any rational person would interpret my example of 25% returns over 20 years to mean I believe every year would be exactly 25%. Obviously, those are average returns, compounded over 20 years. And then to tell me I'm being unrealistic because returns are never that consistent.

Accepting your apology at face value requires me to believe you are stupid and I know you are not. Unless this is a new development, and, if so, forgive me and accept my apology!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If the stock price stayed the same till Q1 results, TTM PE will be 150 ish and Forward PE will be at 50.
Warren buffet will be loading the truck.

Yup, part of the reason I feel that taking risk here is not exactly taking risk. Nothing about 2022 is accurately priced in. TMC'rs once again going to watch Wall St scramble while we laugh and say "Told you so"

(As long as you're playing LEAPS though)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We've had 5 distinct large sell orders throughout trading today. I don't think it's Elon selling but sure would be nice if was and he had it scheduled as today as the day selling the remainder of his shares ( or at least the 934k he's been doing)

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

As usual if I disagree with you it is probably a misunderstanding. Please accept my apologies.

HI jb. Wots your thoughts on the latest wisdom from the Stellantis CEO ? Give you confidence in the competition ?

 

[elasalle]

Final 30 mins.
Added some 10/17 1100 calls for ~ 12 bucks. (It' down by $27 today)
(Come on make MM's buy more shares )

 

[wooter]

Well, at least on average Mondays are up

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Yup, part of the reason I feel that taking risk here is not exactly taking risk. Nothing about 2022 is accurately priced in. TMC'rs once again going to watch Wall St scramble while we laugh and say "Told you so"

(As long as you're playing LEAPS though)

You've got me really considering a quick share sale here. $1200/$1400 call spreads for Jan2024 are back down to <$50. That's basically free money even with a massive global interruption along the way.

10 of those might be $47k today for $200k two January's from now. Hmmmmmm

As of now I'm leaning toward doing nothing. There's at least a 1 in 10 chance we see a drop to low/mid $900's before 4Q liftoff. I'll wait and see if that happens then pounce.

 

[thesmokingman]

Final 30 mins.
Added some 10/17 1100 calls for ~ 12 bucks. (It' down by $27 today)
(Come on make MM's buy more shares )

You can do it!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You've got me really considering a quick share sale here. $1200/$1400 call spreads for Jan2024 are back down to <$50. That's basically free money even with a massive global interruption along the way.

10 of those might be $47k today for $200k two January's from now. Hmmmmmm

As of now I'm leaning toward doing nothing. There's at least a 1 in 10 chance we see a drop to low/mid $900's before 4Q liftoff. I'll wait and see if that happens then pounce.

I'm gonna wait on Monday to decide what do with the final 100 shares I'm willing to swap for LEAPS. I think Monday could be a Monday selloff in the morning to 50-day average or slightly below it with a strong rebound to green for the day

Edit: Huge push right now to make it close below 1,000

 

[StealthP3D]

So, how much more range will you get from tacking?

That's an interesting question. I assume you are talking about crabbing a few degrees on the freeway to present the body to the airflow at the most beneficial angle? Here's why I think it's interesting:

I've been mulling over why Elon announced the Cybertruck would have rear-wheel steering. I don't buy it was to "one-up" the truck competition because I think the Cybertruck already achieves that in so many ways that it's not necessary. And I don't buy it's for off-road manueverability because Elon is a first principles kind of guy and he's designing the vehicles to work well for how people actually use their vehicles, and most people are not going to be off-roading. When they do venture off-road, regular steering will work just fine 99.9% of the time.

What I had come up with was it must be primarily for better urban maneuverability in tight parking situations, alleys, etc. To make a large vehicle drive like a much smaller vehicle. And this makes sense. But I also know it's a considerable cost to go from front wheel steering to all-wheel steering and that Elon also likes to kill two birds with one stone whenever possible. So, the crabbing on the freeway is an interesting thought.

Could Tesla have discovered in further testing that the shape of the Cybertruck had a good drag coefficient when the airflow was head-on but that the large flat sides and sail pillars above the bed caused excessive drag in even a mild cross wind? Four-wheel steering could allow the body to crab into the breeze and normalize the Cd, at least for normal, mild crosswinds/breezes that might be present a good portion of the time?

Normally, when your truck crabs down the road, it's because you are driving a real piece of crap:

But could the Cybertruck be the only trucks on the road crabbing into the wind, not because they are pieces of crap, but because they are technological marvels of range and energy savings? It's a tantalizing idea and I think it has merit. I'm going to do a seat of the pants estimation and say it might increase range at 70 mph by 5-8% in a light to moderate crosswind for an average HWY savings of 2-3%. I don't think these savings would get reflected in the EPA numbers (because I don't believe the EPA method contemplates cross winds) but it would sure reduce the range complaints in crosswind situations and increase the predictability of the estimated range remaining. I like it!

 

[Boomer19]

desperate attempt to break 1k

 

[Stretch2727]

Ford Gets Ready to Race Rivals for a Place Behind Tesla

www.bloomberg.com

So it is no longer about beating Tesla. It all about being #2. At least Ford has a reasonable plan that may put them at #2, unlike Mary B at GM who will say anything to look like she has it under control. Not.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

desperate attempt to break 1k

Had my buy order in at $1k....after buying some at $1050, $1020 and $1010..... black friday just a little later

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Ford Gets Ready to Race Rivals for a Place Behind Tesla

www.bloomberg.com

So it is no longer about beating Tesla. It all about being #2. At least Ford has a reasonable plan that may put them at #2, unlike Mary B at GM who will say anything to look like she has it under control. Not.

Lol.....I noticed that earlier today as well, just got too busy shopping for bargains to post. Very interesting change of tune!

(headline: Ford Gets Ready to Race Rivals for a Place Behind Tesla)

Bloomberg has never had such a headline that I can recall.

 

[torifile]

I finally got on the TSLA train today after being convinced of it as a product. I’m a long-term investor so the day to day gyrations don’t bother me much. I’m looking at a 20 year time horizon not a 20 day one.

I tend to wait into companies I like pull back ~20% before buying. There’s always the potential for more downside but not often much more. If it keeps going down, I might DCA a little. But generally, I don’t. I’m patient. I don’t need the money now so I’m in zero rush.

 

[jbcarioca]

HI jb. Wots your thoughts on the latest wisdom from the Stellantis CEO ? Give you confidence in the competition ?

Considering his shareholders and constituents, he must not be optimistic.
It would take hubris to display optimism when he's in charge of so many previous failing operations.
I am confident in his ability of his ability to create, in the old rural US colloquialism.
"a silk purse from a sow's ear"
It won't be easy.
Regardless I retain confidence in Tavares. OTOH I am not now nor do I expect to be an investor in the enterprise.

 

[jbcarioca]

In your obsessive research, have you seen any competitors close to Tesla in self-driving? Tesla's advantages that I have seen include:

• lowest-cost sensors (cameras only, no lidar)
• lowest-power driving computer (lower than anything from Nvidia)
• tightest integration of hardware and software development (including in-house chip design)
• biggest training fleet (1.5M cars and growing exponentially)
• biggest training computer (Dojo, in development)
• fastest software iteration (via wireless updates)
• most scalable solution (no geofencing or pre-mapping)

Your reported business experience dwarfs mine, but I have seen technology revolutionize several industries. For example, I saw vinyl records replaced by compact discs, replaced by iPods, replaced by music streaming.

In the transportation industry, the revolution will not be ICE vehicles replaced by EVs. It will be ICE vehicles replaced by self-driving EVs. Apparently this prediction is hard to believe or remember, since most folks don't.

But since I do, I see no "good competitors" to Tesla, now or three years out.

No

 

[StealthP3D]

I finally got on the TSLA train today after being convinced of it as a product. I’m a long-term investor so the day to day gyrations don’t bother me much. I’m looking at a 20 year time horizon not a 20 day one.

I tend to wait into companies I like pull back ~20% before buying. There’s always the potential for more downside but not often much more. If it keeps going down, I might DCA a little. But generally, I don’t. I’m patient. I don’t need the money now so I’m in zero rush.

The best gifts I've ever received as an investor happened due to buying more as the share price went lower.

 

[Nocturnal]

I have to imagine the bears will assume we head back down to the $600s from here, missing how much the fundamentals have changed. They will be in for a shock. I expect this omicron business to blow over soon and people will realize that a new variant will be coming out every few months.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Placed some orders at $1030 & $1001 today to help console my self over not being able to buy the cyberquad for kids in Canada.

Halfway through my greeencard application to the US; they were sold out - so I nixed that idea.

Decided to place an order for some discounted chairs instead. Both orders hit today.

So while I guess I won't be shoehorning myself in to be sitting on my new Cyberquad for kids; I will be sitting on some new chairs to pay for the real one when it arrives hopefully soon.

Count your blessings; my lucky Cyberquad-for-kids-owing American friends. I remain Plaid level jealous on the other side of the border.