Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

In today's edition of "thank god I drive a Tesla", we have people surviving a 2000 lb tree falling on their roof.

Inb4 TSLAQ complains the cameras did not detect the tree falling.

 

[Paracelsus]

Some movie theater popcorn-worthy back and forth - Gary Black is pulling the last of his hair out regarding Elon’s stock sale ‘strategy’ with a few too many armchair quarterback suggestions regarding how Elon ‘should have done it’ for Jim Hall, who decided enough was enough and dropped a few hammers on Gary. This is TMC worthy IMO because Jim Hall is offering a Sage perspective that Life is Good for TSLA Longs (when in doubt zoom out basically).

The bigger irony of this to me is that a year ago TSLA was trading comfortably on a one-year trend line in the mid-400’s. Many of us here on TMC commented on how good it felt that TSLA had finally seemed to settle in for a long steady climb. Then of course the top blew off and TSLA shot up another 400 points or so…….at which point Gary very publicly called the top and sold his whole position. Then he proceeded to publicly pat himself on the back until he announced he had reloaded his TSLA account at a time the stock had settled back on to the longer trend line.

Fast forward a year to just before the last run-up. TSLA is trading in a channel with the upper resistance line being the old one-year trend line………except now it is a two-year trend line, and Q3 results and a flurry of good news once again launches TSLA above it……..and once again TSLA moves almost the same 400 points to the upside. But this time is different - this time Gary doesn’t sell at the peak after an almost identical move as the one a year prior that he claimed fame with. History was literally repeating itself, and quite a few of us were taking advantage of it, as it isn’t that often in my experience it ends up looking so similar. I guess the playbook worked so good the first time that Big Money simply called the same play on 2nd down as you can see on the chart in the screenshot below. Which makes me wonder if Gary is really upset at Elon, or is he just upset with himself for failing to see it…..? It happens, to all of us. Own it. Obviously I don’t really appreciate seeing people throw stones at Elon for paying himself in the manner he chooses. He has already paid all of us quite well while creating a more sustainable future for us. This too shall pass Gary.

I mentioned in a previous post that we started a 501c3 this year, and we funded it with shares from our 401k that we moved in the mid-600’s. (we had hoped to move them in the 500’s but the process of starting the Foundation was a little lengthier than I imagined). We moved an equal amount of shares from our IRA to our Roth at that time and were able to deduct the similar 501c3 contribution while maximizing the number of shares journaled in the lowest 401k tax bracket. We were required to sell and distribute 5% of our initial investment this year. We sold a handful of shares just above $1,200 to get 5% of our investment in the mid-600’s. As TSLA had nearly doubled, we only had to sell just under 3% of the the number of shares we purchased in the spring. Thus our Foundation fund is growing nicely and we are quite pleased with the environmental and community sustainability projects we have funded in 2021.

I mention this because of the 2-year trend line we are once again gravitating towards and a potential setup for a similar opportunity that is forming up to occur very early in 2022. After all the tax shouting by a handful of people in DC we are getting our ducks in a row should TSLA settle back in on the 2-year trend line to journal an equal number of shares again from our 401k to our 501c3 and from our 401k to our Roth for our 2022 contributions. That should once again provide us the opportunity to sell and distribute far less than 5% of the 2022 TSLA shares purchased towards the end of 2022, and perhaps less than a couple percent of the 2021 shares purchased. It really has been a rewarding experience. Fingers crossed Elon is about to do the same with the majority of his remaining shares.

 

[StealthP3D]

the question is, will he do it this way again the next time he has a tranche of options expiring?
don’t forget, it’s a huge amount to unload for 1 executive. but something tells me he’ll find a better way next time around.

Something tells me you should wait for this to play out before assuming it didn't play out well. Remember, Elon is not going to worry about options players or those who are highly leveraged - he knows they are big boys and girls and can take care of themselves. What matters is being able to unload his 10% at a reasonable price and not do anything disruptive to long term investors. If he can burn the shorts along the way, all the better.

I'm very much looking forward to the next few weeks and I'm not too worried about the macro environment. It might be bumpy, but my sense is it's not going to be crashing anytime soon.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don’t think either one of these is as clear as what he suggests here.

Personally, I would like if this were true, it would make the truck great for over-landing and we don’t really have any EVs which are good at that type of driving. The lack of kitchen/ meal prep area makes it a little less versatile than a van, but it makes up for it with lots of other versatility.

I would say the test truck in the video has a cabin that is clearly open to the bed area (above the seats). But more telling as to what this might become is the look of the bulkhead between the bed and cabin (immediately aft of the rear seatbacks). It's thick looking in a way that makes me think it's not fixed to the sides of the vehicle. I believe what we have here is a motorized bulkhead that adjusts from a large crew cab pickup with a 6-foot bed to a work truck with an 8-foot bed. It is likely the climate control can heat the entire vault too which will allow it to replace a lot of large SUV's. Whatever is going on here it's leveraging the construction of the Cybertruck and its electric powertrain to do things no traditional pickup could possibly do. The limitation of a traditional pickup when it comes to things like this is the frame is flexy and twists on uneven ground causing the bed and the cab to move independently of one another while the Cybertruck will be solid and rigid with very minimal flex, even with 3500 lbs. of payload inside. That rigidity is what allows Tesla to do things no one has attempted previously. In mild weather, the Cybertruck will also be able to operate in modes that would cause carbon monoxide poisoning if it had a tailpipe.

I truly believe that Tesla is creating a wondertruck here that will stun the world with its jaw-dropping functionality and all-around abilities. Not just specs on paper but real-world awesomeness. Even some diehard TSLAQ are going to want one of their own once they pick their jaws up off the ground. Unfortunately, most of them won't have a spare $60K laying around. This will likely become the best-selling pickup in America.

Yes, it has slightly softer lines, smaller, less aggressive wheels and tires, and is a little more compact overall but it's still a very large vehicle on the inside and versatile in ways people have only dreamed of. Until now. Legacy pickups are going to quickly look very 'frumpy' to most people.

 

[Jack6591]

This should help…

AstraZeneca antibody cocktail works against Omicron in study

AstraZeneca said on Thursday a lab-study of its COVID-19 antibody cocktail, Evusheld, found that the treatment retained neutralising activity against the Omicron coronavirus variant, showing promise for wider use of the therapy.

www.reuters.com

 

[Mr X]

800's today?!


Had some money in another bank account that I had forgotten about. Putting that into some more stonk today

 

[jbcarioca]

Even more amazingly, that is an OTA software update which adds value for existing Tesla owners. What other automaker cares about increasing the resale value of the cars that they've already sold?

Makes you feel even more confident that the 'Tesla stretch' for the sticker price is a good investment going forward. Other cars' value quickly decays, while Tesla's just keep getting better over time.

Cheers to the Longs!

Not really. That was promised pré-launch. The speakers to accomplish that are in the front headrests. They just have not been enabled. FWIW, such systems have been installed by other OEM’s for years. This may be better or more efficient. I cannot wait to find out. That was one major factor making me buy Refresh. Personal experience with ANC systems in aircraft makes me an advocate.

 

[jbcarioca]

Yes. And Dan Ammann is responsible for Cruise acquisition. I guess you don't want to be responsible for any acquisition/partnership at GM right now. Now who's responsible for the battery tech ULTIUM.

Just blame LG for that, just like Bolt. If it works it’s GM. If not it’s LG’s fault again.
GM just loves Tier One suppliers.

 

[22522]

I would say the test truck in the video has a cabin that is clearly open to the bed area (above the seats). But more telling as to what this might become is the look of the bulkhead between the bed and cabin (immediately aft of the rear seatbacks). It's thick looking in a way that makes me think it's not fixed to the sides of the vehicle. I believe what we have here is a motorized bulkhead that adjusts from a large crew cab pickup with a 6-foot bed to a work truck with an 8-foot bed. It is likely the climate control can heat the entire vault too which will allow it to replace a lot of large SUV's. Whatever is going on here it's leveraging the construction of the Cybertruck and its electric powertrain to do things no traditional pickup could possibly do. The limitation of a traditional pickup when it comes to things like this is the frame is flexy and twists on uneven ground causing the bed and the cab to move independently of one another while the Cybertruck will be solid and rigid with very minimal flex, even with 3500 lbs. of payload inside. That rigidity is what allows Tesla to do things no one has attempted previously. In mild weather, the Cybertruck will also be able to operate in modes that would cause carbon monoxide poisoning if it had a tailpipe.
Yes, it has slightly softer lines, smaller, less aggressive wheels and tires, and is a little more compact overall but it's still a very large vehicle on the inside and versatile in ways people have only dreamed of. Until now…

The open passage may put boat mode on the table as it is a non electrically actuated escape passage should things go horribly wrong, as they sometimes do when water is involved.

 

[-=buzz=-]

While everyone has been (rightly) mocking Bara for her ridiculous claims about GM being the ”leader” in EVs - I find it amazing she has managed to avoid any calls for her to be fired due to the Nikola fiasco, which I thought would have been front and center of investor concerns.

Well, besides the publicity blunder, this agreement was a net benefit for GM.
They basically agreed to provide consulting, development & production services to Nikola at an hourly/cost-plus rate and received $1b+ in NKLA stocks for the privilege to do so...

 

[elasalle]

Last min vacation plans on a day like today (not sure if I will have internet access and can tend to my garden of put spreads (BPS) and calls - on top of that I tippy toed into margins here and there - so don't want margin calls)

Need to close a lot of short term positions for some medium losses so over all account stays healthy. If not travelling, I think I could have managed these positions.
Need to take action by mid-day. So will likely stay inactive for at least 30 days, and make sure will get some tax harvesting/ write offs without wash sales - that's my plan
Jan 23 CC's killing it though


bad Santa, bad Elon ..... bad timing, bad trades

Happy Holidays All!! Good Times ahead

 

[H Mak]

It is conceivable that Tesla would be a $4 Trillion dollar company by then. To think one man selling shares might cause a trillion dollar market swing…. That’s kind of crazy.

It’s a nice reminder that market cap isn’t a reflection of a companies value, it’s a reflection of current SP and nothing more. Lots of things affect SP, fundmantal value is harder to nudge.

This is a really important point when viewing share price swings. The market is driven by sentiment. In the case of Tesla, it is not the "one man selling" that causes the swing, it's the fact that every single investor in the world knows it. What this means is that all investors who are aware of his selling will avoid TSLA until his selling is finished. And what happens when investors avoid a company? Yep, the share price tanks.

Elon's selling shares has a multiplier effect. The combined knowledge of all investors permeates the market. So it's wrong to look at the number of shares he is selling in isolation (a relatively small number) and wonder how that can possibly make such a big difference. It's the sentiment caused by the act of his selling, that is moving the market.

 

[Nolimits]

This is a really important point when viewing share price swings. The market is driven by sentiment. In the case of Tesla, it is not the "one man selling" that causes the swing, it's the fact that every single investor in the world knows it. What this means is that all investors who are aware of his selling will avoid TSLA until his selling is finished. And what happens when investors avoid a company? Yep, the share price tanks.

Elon's selling shares has a multiplier effect. The combined knowledge of all investors permeates the market. So it's wrong to look at the number of shares he is selling in isolation (a relatively small number) and wonder how that can possibly make such a big difference. It's the sentiment caused by the act of his selling, that is moving the market.

Thus buy now - before the sentiment changes and everyone starts buying… right?

yesterday and likely today will be an amazing opportunity for long term hodlers. Easy 30% upside from where we are - 920. May take few weeks/months to ATH but we will get there.

 

[H Mak]

Thus buy now - before the sentiment changes and everyone starts buying… right?

yesterday and likely today will be an amazing opportunity for long term hodlers. Easy 30% upside from where we are - 920. May take few weeks/months to ATH but we will get there.

Exactly. On this board we are smart enough to know the difference between sentiment and value, and act accordingly

 

[jerry33]

"Please note that fails-to-deliver can occur for a number of reasons on both long and short sales. Therefore, fails-to-deliver are not necessarily the result of short selling, and are not evidence of abusive short selling or “naked” short selling"

https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=TSLA
"not necessarily" but, almost always, are IMO.

And smoke doesn't always mean there is a fire.

 

[jerry33]

Just blame LG for that, just like Bolt. If it works it’s GM. If not it’s LG’s fault again.
GM just loves Tier One suppliers.

The modus operandi of virtually every large corporation. Do as little as possible in-house so you (as a manager/executive) can be blame-free.

 

[MABMAB]

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/309833649360761369/

 

[15Peter20]

Exactly. On this board we are smart enough to know the difference between sentiment and value, and act accordingly

Planning to sell everything else today in order to buy TSLA as this sale unfolds.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Insurance has expanded to Illinois. Slow going, but progress is progress.

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/ric67j

 

[Artful Dodger]

Today's 7:00 a.m. update for TSLA Options Open Interest is out now (please see the chart attached below). Based on "Call - Put" for each contract strike price (2nd Column from the Right), it appears that Options Market Makers will have strong motivation to push today's Closing SP toward $950.

With today being a "triple-witching" expiry date, MMs will likely be very active in trading today. Currently 938K Open Contracts for TSLA which expire today.

However, given that the highest number of Puts is at the $900 Strike price, I do expect a strong push after the Opening from traders holding those Put contracts.

Futher, as @StarFoxisDown! mentioned yesterday, the 100-day Simple Moving Average SP should be ~$880 at the Open, which may provide another tempting target for technical traders (hedgies). $880 is also very close to the Jan '21 local high SP, which also will be attractive to hedgies.

However, at this level the SP would be like ringing the dinner bell for any TSLA Longs who have even a modest understanding of the good news in the pipeline for Tesla beginning with the 2021Q4 P&D report (expected about Mon, Jan 3rd, 2022).

I expect strong buying interest into a Close at ~$950. Not advice, just my opinions based on what I see. Do your own research. Look both ways b4 crossing the Street. GLTA!

Cheers!