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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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A NIOAs of December 1, NIO has sold 80,940 vehicles in 2021 in China. Their battery swap is an option, not an issue, however a poor option IMHO. Tesla only surpassed 100,000 sales per year in 2017 and was selling in Europe and Canada well before then. NIO selling their vehicles in other Countries to take advantage of local incentive programs, and to gain recognition outside China would spur further demand inside China. Does NIO need to expand outside of China, the World's biggest auto market by a wide margin? No. Will they? Yes.
Disclaimer, I do not own NIO, and this deserves another thread here on TMC, so I'll pause the NIO talk.
Apologies if I missed it, but I didn’t see this posted upthread - there is a NIO thread - All discussion of Nio Motors. I was looking for discussion of NIO within this thread because I was curious if they would be eligible for any credit. With BBB seemingly scrapped, it’s perhaps moot. Since it appears NIO is a credible competitor, then credit on top of their pricing would have put them into a lower priced category, which as an investor bears watching; credible Tesla competitor bears watching. The other thing that caught my attention is their AR/VR glasses. Am interested to see what the NHTSA does with that. It maybe naive on my part, but as other manufacturers push the boundaries on technology for operating vehicles, there could be more market acceptance of Tesla’s innovations, and perhaps a better reception of Tesla’s engineering approach by regulators.

To be clear, my primary interest here is on impact to Tesla. For detailed analysis of NIO, I will continue to review the dedicated NIO thread, which btw hasn’t had new posts in awhile.
 
IMO it’s a positive on Tesla & TSLA but a negative for the EV movement in general. It basically ensures Tesla’s cost lead.
It is a positive for TSLA and the EV movement. Tesla has a clearly stated mission and they are on task. That bill was accurately described by Elon in a public forum. More people will have good experiences with EVs instead of getting butchered by amateurs. The long distance experience will be better. Cost to society to transition to EV will be 1/5th (20%) of what it would have been.
 
If the trucks are electric, you can drive/index them through an enclosed space.
It does seem like the way Austin is built it must use some kind of internal deliveries together with regular loading bays. Assuming they will only use electric trucks for the inside driving this means they will need some fairly large space outside for regular trucks to leave the containers and the electric pick them up. One has to assume the math has been done and it should work. Some years from now all the trucks will be electric and that problem will go away of course.

What is strange though is that a few years ago all the talk was about how Tesla was building the factories that were building the factories (or something similar) it was presumed that Austin and Berlin being built pretty much simultaneously would make them very similar. Seems they are not really.
 
This being an investment forum, what is the near term impact on TSLA of the failure of BBB to pass? Between that, EM selling, and shorts, will this create a triple threat buying opportunity for the first part of the upcoming week?
Personally, I don't think the BBB failure will have much SP impact but I do think the EM selling is setting up the the buying opportunity you are describing. Especially combined with this low volume holiday period. In other words, the price is getting pressed lower than it should and we are heading into Q4 results which will probably be spectacular. Just my opinion, not investing advice.
 
Short term BBB would increase the price Tesla can charge and still saturate ICE-BEV switchers. Long term no BBB will pretty much kill the competition who cannot entice ICE-BEV switchers profitable for a few more years. So short term Tesla will get less profit but long term they will get a larger market share and thus more profit. So expect stupid wallstreet to lower their valuations but clever retail investors to just hodl and collect the long term returns.
 
Legacy auto needed this EV credit to not lose their shirt on every EV made at a price point that competes with Tesla, who has no EV credit.
No issue with the original poster but do we actually know this is true or is this just conjecture? I say it myself once in a while but as far as I know there is very little hard evidence of this. Are we making the argument that legacy margins are ~10% and since batteries are currently more costly than an ICE drive train therefore they must have negative margins on BEV?
 
If the BB doesn’t get passed, tesla will start lowering prices for sure.. 1K here, 1.5K there, maybe even 2.5K for some trims. GUARANTEED!

But, I’m thinking this whole thing is a ploy, parry, etc.. to get the overall $$ down in the bill and get more of what an unnamed Senator from WV wants. We could still see this bill NEXT year (well, it will for sure not be THIS year) and then can do it then, but at the sacrifice of other initiatives they would want to use reconciliation for next year.
Sure let’s ignore everything that’s going on in the auto industry with ASP, a wait time of 6-10 months, general inflation, and specifically mark up on competitors EV’s 😂.

I’ll take the contrary, there will be zero price cuts on the 3/Y in 2022
 
Hedge funds can now take the massive chunk of extra intraday liquidity from Elon selling shares and push the SP around where we they like.

BBB potentially being dead and covid shutting down US professional sports will be more than enough FUD to revisit the lower echelons of support.

I'll very likely sell a few chunks of shares and convert to LEAPs. What should we look for as a good SP to pounce with leverage? I'm thinking breaking below $900(-3.5%) tomorrow might be a good spot. Or $880 Wednesday if we hold better than that Monday then have a second selling day. That assumes Elon sells at all Monday.
 
Sure let’s ignore everything that’s going on in the auto industry with ASP, a wait time of 6-10 months, general inflation, and specifically mark up on competitors EV’s 😂.

I’ll take the contrary, there will be zero price cuts on the 3/Y in 2022
I tend to agree with you.

My feeling here is if they need to lower prices they will do it by introducing new models at lower price points.

Model Y RWD is low hanging fruit. Drop the base price of the Model Y by $7,000 while keeping existing buyers from migrating to the new price point.
 
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My parents have a Model Y being delivered next week. The delivery specialist said it was coming from Texas. Is it possibly one the first Model Y’s manufactured at the new factory? Why else would it be coming from Texas if they can’t even sell cars there?
Highly unlikely. To the best of my knowledge, we have seen ZERO new Model Y's produced at GigaAustin, unless they're all being hidden inside a large building somewhere, and being shipped out in covered transport trailers . . . .
 
Hedge funds can now take the massive chunk of extra intraday liquidity from Elon selling shares and push the SP around where we they like.

BBB potentially being dead and covid shutting down US professional sports will be more than enough FUD to revisit the lower echelons of support.

I'll very likely sell a few chunks of shares and convert to LEAPs. What should we look for as a good SP to pounce with leverage? I'm thinking breaking below $900(-3.5%) tomorrow might be a good spot. Or $880 Wednesday if we hold better than that Monday then have a second selling day. That assumes Elon sells at all Monday.
I’ll be watching tomorrow as well and looking for the 100 day

Though if there are no schedule sells tomorrow, I think he might actually be done for the year. Hard to think that he would schedule 4 sell tranches during 2 holiday weeks
 
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I suggest that you at least Cc: the DOJ on you request for an investigation on FTD reporting for TSLA. Clearly, the SEC is either tolerant or complicite in the problem. Investors have the right to know, especially with TSLA being poorly treated differentially compared to other Large Cap equities.

Thanks again for your work. This is important research that no short fund like Citron will ever do.
re:
This is exactly what I was talking about. As I said, I wrote software to search through many years worth of data looking at ~6000 other heavily traded symbols to find the longest consecutive period of zero FTDs for those other symbols. No other stock ever came close to 2.5 months of zero FTD.
Have you made some bar-graphs to show the magnitude of the difference in TSLA? This would be ideal subject matter for a pointed tweet at the right moment. Paging @DaveT


The only reasonable conclusion is that the data set is wrong, and that FTDs on TSLA (and TSLA only) were not being reported. That's why I wrote to the SEC, asking them to investigate and provide the missing data, but they just ignored me.

"I suggest that you at least Cc: the DOJ on you request for an investigation on FTD reporting for TSLA. Clearly, the SEC is either tolerant or complicite in the problem. Investors have the right to know, especially with TSLA being poorly treated differentially compared to other Large Cap equities."


Unfortunately my understanding is that the DOJ is also captured by special interests, so the only actions likely to have any effect would be either figuring out a class action suit vs the SEC for damages to shareholders (and Tesla, but Tesla can't be bothered with that mess) for failing to enforce its stated mission, or some action at a state level somewhere - where lawmakers aren't so compromised as at the federal level.

re the SEC: recall that it ignored whistleblower Markopoulos findings that Madoff's results were impossible, TEN YEARS before the scandal broke, and repeatedly as Markopoulos brought more and more details ... that the SEC even blocked an investigation, that the people in charge then were not fined but promoted (or got plush jobs after leaving the SEC) and finally that the SEC is still trying NOT to award Markolpoulos his whistleblower rewards.
 
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