Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Does anyone know where to go to see how many EVs each manufacture has sold out of 200,000?. My google skills are letting me down. Curious how close Ford, etc are to the limit.

Well, they are all within 200K of the phaseout. Tesla is making a million EV's a year now so...yeah, the original tax credits were just incentives to try out EV manufacturing (even though the incentive went to buyers of EV's).

 

[StealthP3D]

IMO it’s a positive on Tesla & TSLA but a negative for the EV movement in general. It basically ensures Tesla’s cost lead.

Yeah, but Tesla was going to have a cost lead with or without the credits because they couldn't find a way to write the bill that would exclude Tesla while still passing muster. They tried but, due to Tesla's mainstream prices, they couldn't find a way. The union provision was their attempt, but it was never going to fly.

 

[StealthP3D]

What is strange though is that a few years ago all the talk was about how Tesla was building the factories that were building the factories (or something similar) it was presumed that Austin and Berlin being built pretty much simultaneously would make them very similar. Seems they are not really.

It does look like Tesla is planning on being so dominant they have determined it will be beneficial to compete with themselves. So, they are trying two different strategies, both promising, to see whether the Berlin or Austin factory design will win and serve as their template for the next round of factories.

And it makes sense because the amount of money spent on building the next round of factories will be multiples of that spent on Austin and Berlin combined.

 

[EVMeister]

Reading the last page and a bit of this thread made me think the forum was malfunctionining or I had everyone except StealthP3D on block. Not a complaint though, many good points made and probably the most on-topic this thread has been for a while.

 

[insaneoctane]

If BBB dies and we don't get these new EV credits....doesn't that mean those stupid hybrid credits are also off the table? I think those high $ hybrid credits were actually going to be a net negative to the climate....So this seems like a win to me.

 

[15Peter20]

Nasty looking pre-market. Anything in particular or just a general malaise?

 

[dw4ngg]

If BBB dies and we don't get these new EV credits....doesn't that mean those stupid hybrid credits are also off the table? I think those high $ hybrid credits were actually going to be a net negative to the climate....So this seems like a win to me.

It should die. When did America start accepting BBB ratings? We should hold out for the AAA bill.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Wide margins on ICE cars doesn't translate to wide margins on EV, particularly extra heavy, inefficient ones that require so many batteries to hit their range targets.

It will be interesting to see what they can do. Step 1 is a product people like. If they're charging the Plaid price as a minimum plus expensive options it's clearly too early to declare there's no margin in them.

 

[advocate8]

Did my part for Q4.


View attachment 746023

Did it come with batteries? heh heh

 

[CorneliusXX]

If BBB dies and we don't get these new EV credits....doesn't that mean those stupid hybrid credits are also off the table? I think those high $ hybrid credits were actually going to be a net negative to the climate....So this seems like a win to me.

It's tricky to tell what the ultimate outcome would be. The BBB credits were woefully designed for the reasons you say, however I'm of the opinion that the limiting factor to the speed of the EV transition is the speed of supply chain growth.

Rob Maurer interviewed Alex Potter recently and one of the points Alex made was that there will be scepticism from suppliers to scale to provide the parts needed by non-tesla OEMs.

IMO EV subsidies would give more confidence to suppliers to make the investment necessary to accelerate the transition as it would give suppliers more confidence in demand for these vehicles.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Traditionally Mercedes have been able to command high prices for their luxury ICE sedans and options. It will be interesting to see whether the same factors that allowed them to charge high prices will translate into the EV world. Not cost plus but there were already wide margins to play with.

Even the 155K AMG EQS would be smoked by my 2019 M3P. As for against the plaid........

 

[H Mak]

flybrandenburg - today:

Where is everyone?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Where is everyone?

Central America, roughly.

 

[Atomsla]

Where is everyone?

He filmed on a sunday; just about everyone is off work on sundays over there.

A normal workweek​

The workweek is defined as the 6 days of Monday-Saturday. The working hours during normal workdays may not exceed eight hours and therefore 48 hours per week. The workday can be extended under certain circumstances to ten hours. Night work is only allowed for eight hours per working day. On-call work that requires the employee's presence at the workplace also counts as working time and in some cases as overtime. On-call work in the form of constant availability, for example stand-by work, on the other hand, does not count as working time. Work on Sundays and public holidays is generally prohibited.


There are exceptions available for workers in the service industry. However, work on Sundays has to be compensated for by corresponding time off within the next two weeks (or eight weeks in the case of work on public holidays).


A working day of more than six, but no more than nine hours, requires a scheduled 30 minute rest break. This can be may be split into two breaks of 15 minutes. A 45 minute break is required after six hours of work in the case of a working day of more than nine hours. At the end of the working day, there must be an uninterrupted rest period of a minimum of 11 hours.

Quoted from How To Germany - Employees' Rights in Germany

 

[Discoducky]

Nasty looking pre-market. Anything in particular or just a general malaise?

Omicron fears. Max pain is $1k however and markets closed Friday.

 

[winfield100]

Looks like we should see more selling from Elon through the end of the year for him to hit $11B in taxes. This would be contrary to some people's desires like Gary Black who are hoping he stops selling and waits for next year.

I'm guessing we will see two sales a week, but with his sales coming to an end hopefully we will see some front running start to kick in and Tesla shares find some support to close out the year

Edit:

So 52.65% tax on 10,275,001 acquired shares (934,091 x 11)
and
20+3.8+12.3% (36.1%) on 5,427,784 old shares dispersed ??
roughly 2/3 taxed at ~53% and 1/3 at ~36% ??
(hurtling back through time to first basic accounting test with a big fat red "fail" grade)
sigh, at least the tax nick is less than I anticipated

 

[CHGolferJim]

Hedge funds can now take the massive chunk of extra intraday liquidity from Elon selling shares and push the SP around where we they like.

BBB potentially being dead and covid shutting down US professional sports will be more than enough FUD to revisit the lower echelons of support.

I'll very likely sell a few chunks of shares and convert to LEAPs. What should we look for as a good SP to pounce with leverage? I'm thinking breaking below $900(-3.5%) tomorrow might be a good spot. Or $880 Wednesday if we hold better than that Monday then have a second selling day. That assumes Elon sells at all Monday.

If you have confidence in the mixed shares/LEAPs strategy, just do it, in the long run timing the market for entry is peanuts.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Even the 155K AMG EQS would be smoked by my 2019 M3P. As for against the plaid........

Pure acceleration is not likely to be the main reason people bought an S-Class.

 

[winfield100]

I love this because it was only a couple of years ago that people naysaying a fast transition to EV's were using rental fleets to support their argument. Because rental companies are not going to rent EV's for decades! Obviously.

It seems like just a short time ago, august 2020, that ~3,500+ rental cars kinda went up in a giant cloud of black smoke at RSW (Florida SW international airport),
the smoke was highly visable from 30 miles away, ruled accidental due to hot exhaust pipe, dry grass, winds spread rapidly

April fire at RSW ruled accidental, damages exceed $100 million

The April fire at Southwest Florida International Airport was classified as accidental with the approximate loss exceeding $100 million.

www.news-press.com

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Nice! What state do your parents live in? I'm just wondering where they are shipping the first Texas cars here at the end of the quarter.

Portland delivery.