Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[winfield100]

Starlink could help level the playing field for many day traders, but the biggest HFT players tend to have fiber connections as close as possible to the exchanges. Like right across the street, often times. I could see a lot of them having Starlink as a backup system though.

@mongo @SmokyPeat
I was more thinking about HFT between _exchanges_, like US to Europe to Nikkei, to etc., not across main street
if you could arb between those other side of the planet distances, really front running, even your own trades exchange to exchange

Is that feasible?
If it's feasible, most likely a bunch of folks have already wargamed it.

probably only good one time, but a really fast computer, (dojo?) a good strong AI, with no bad programming, and a polka dotted B&W swan that doesn't get out of hand

 

[Artful Dodger]

Announcement says unnamed US auto manufacturer. I think that rules out VW of true, but the breaking reports are hardly known for their accuracy.

The Volkswagen Group of America also directs all activities at the Volkswagen manufacturing facility in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The plant, which dates from 2011, currently employs around 2,000 people, and produces about 150,000 cars and SUVs a year!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yeah does anyone know if he can’t explicitly state whether he is done or not?
Too bad we can’t just call him or something and get a direct answer instead of arguing over the ever confusing tax code.
Anyone have his number? I’ll call him

Yeah. His number is (420) 934-1209.

/s

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Up to 12% seems like A LOT.. I see MAYBE 3% after 3+ years and 25K miles. I would be more concerned that they may have been a bit more rode hard and put away wet than other cars?

If these are 2017 cells as stated in the OP then they will be a different chemistry to the current (2021) cells. You would have to find an old reference to find out what the 2017 range was to estimate cell degradation vs changes in chemistry.

 

[generalenthu]

The Volkswagen Group of America also directs all activities at the Volkswagen manufacturing facility in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The plant, which dates from 2011, currently employs around 2,000 people, and produces about 150,000 cars and SUVs a year!

Everyone has manufacturing in the US. but typically they are referred to by where their home office is. That'd be calling GM or Tesla a Chinese auto manufacturer. You wouldn't call Tesla that, though arguably Tesla makes more cars in China than in Fremont at the moment. VW definitely makes more cars in Germany for context.

 

[2daMoon]

@mongo @SmokyPeat
I was more thinking about HFT between _exchanges_, like US to Europe to Nikkei, to etc., not across main street
if you could arb between those other side of the planet distances, really front running, even your own trades exchange to exchange

Is that feasible?
If it's feasible, most likely a bunch of folks have already wargamed it.

probably only good one time, but a really fast computer, (dojo?) a good strong AI, with no bad programming, and a polka dotted B&W swan that doesn't get out of hand

This gets me to thinking about how Dojo and Starlink could someday be merged to create a worldwide stock exchange. One where the AI is the referee (replacing the SEC, etc.) and is able to determine when questionable plays are leaning toward unproductive pursuits. Such as trades designed to run a company into the ground just for the heck of it, and pure greed of course.

Such a system would be devoid of human tendencies toward corruption. The AI would enforce trading whenever the end result will clearly affect the big picture in an unbalanced manner. Ever watchful for activity that might negate an overall goal of promoting a trading environment that benefits the market in the long run.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This gets me to thinking about how Dojo and Starlink could someday be merged to create a worldwide stock exchange. One where the AI is the referee (replacing the SEC, etc.) and is able to determine when questionable plays are leaning toward unproductive pursuits. Such as trades designed to run a company into the ground just for the heck of it, and pure greed of course.

Such a system would be devoid of human tendencies toward corruption. The AI would enforce trading whenever the end result will clearly affect the big picture in an unbalanced manner. Ever watchful for activity that might negate an overall goal of promoting a trading environment that benefits the market in the long run.

The problem isn't that we're incapable of creating incorruptible transparent markets, that could be done in a few days with 1995 technology.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Everyone has manufacturing in the US. but typically they are referred to by where their home office is. That'd be calling GM or Tesla a Chinese auto manufacturer. You wouldn't call Tesla that, though arguably Tesla makes more cars in China than in Fremont at the moment. VW definitely makes more cars in Germany for context.

That has zero to do with your original conclusion, which was that VW wasn't likely buying LFP cells for production in N. America because they aren't an American company.

Clearly, VW does build cars in N. America, and it would be foolish NOT to have the LFP cells built here too. Not to mention, VW owns 20% of the bty supplier.

Balance of probabilities is that it actually is VW who signed this contract, which is for a meagerly average of just 33 GWh/yr. Indeed, it's far less obvious that Tesla would even bother with such a tiny volume contract going fwd 6 years. By 2028, Tesla will be making about 50x that volume of batteries.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Shazam! Bow-Chicka-Wow-Wow!

Elon Musk's 2021 taxes equates to over $1.5 million for every day he's been a US citizen

Elon Musk has confirmed on Twitter that his 2021 tax bill will be around $11 billion, thanks to his sale of Tesla stock this year. This amount may not be enough to satisfy the CEO’s staunchest critics, but $11 billion is no joke. It does equate, after all, to Elon Musk paying over $1.5 million...

www.teslarati.com

Cheers!

 

[gene]

Back to the stock, picked up a good bunch on a hunch at $898 for my SEP IRA fun account.

 

[Discoducky]

That has zero to do with your original conclusion, which was that VW wasn't likely buying LFP cells for production in N. America because they aren't an American company.

Clearly, VW does build cars in N. America, and it would be foolish NOT to have the LFP cells built here too. Not to mention, VW owns 20% of the bty supplier.

Balance of probabilities is that it actually is VW who signed this contract, which is for a meagerly average of just 33 GWh/yr. Indeed, it's far less obvious that Tesla would even bother with such a tiny volume contract going fwd 6 years. By 2028, Tesla will be making about 50x that volume of batteries.

It is strange that VW didn't announce this however. Why not actually name the OEM? What purpose does that serve for VW?

 

[generalenthu]

That has zero to do with your original conclusion, which was that VW wasn't likely buying LFP cells for production in N. America because they aren't an American company.

Clearly, VW does build cars in N. America, and it would be foolish NOT to have the LFP cells built here too. Not to mention, VW owns 20% of the bty supplier.

Balance of probabilities is that it actually is VW who signed this contract, which is for a meagerly average of just 33 GWh/yr. Indeed, it's far less obvious that Tesla would even bother with such a tiny volume contract going fwd 6 years. By 2028, Tesla will be making about 50x that volume of batteries.

You have to re-read the tweet. which says, and I quote "OEM signed 200GWh #LFP #battery 2023-2028 supply agreement with unnamed US #auto manufacturer". I am just talking about the fact that the OEM is referred to as an US Auto manufacturer here. IMO, VW is as likely to be called a US Auto manufacturer as Tesla is to be called a Chinese Auto manufacturer.

Also, Tesla wants to get all the battery capacity it can get and this is one small piece. I dont think any of the other Auto manufacturers (including VW) are ready to sign contracts with LFP chemistry in the US, because US clearly needs longer range cars, and to do that with LFP cells, you need a certain vehicle efficiency threshold. Heck Tesla just pivoted to LFP in the last 18 months or so, after making all the advances on efficiency engineering. Everyone else still needs nickel to make a reasonably long range car.

edit: Just to be clear I am not saying its not VW. In my first message, I did say that reporting tends to be inaccurately worded, especially with breaking reports. The fact that VW owns 20% of this firm makes it somewhat likely its VW, but its not a slam dunk. Anyways I rest my case and let's not clog this thread.

 

[bkp_duke]

You have to re-read the tweet. which says, and I quote "OEM signed 200GWh #LFP #battery 2023-2028 supply agreement with unnamed US #auto manufacturer". I am just talking about the fact that the OEM is referred to as an US Auto manufacturer here. IMO, VW is as likely to be called a US Auto manufacturer as Tesla is to be called a Chinese Auto manufacturer.

Also, Tesla wants to get all the battery capacity it can get and this is one small piece. I dont think any of the other Auto manufacturers (including VW) are ready to sign contracts with LFP chemistry in the US, because US clearly needs longer range cars, and to do that with LFP cells, you need a certain vehicle efficiency threshold. Heck Tesla just pivoted to LFP in the last 18 months or so, after making all the advances on efficiency engineering. Everyone else still needs nickel to make a reasonably long range car.

Rivian, Lucid? There's not enough data here to really make any conclusions. Just as likely to be Ford, GM, or Tesla also.

 

[ZeApelido]

Believe it or not, TSLA (3%) actually showing strength as it is down less than TQQQ (5%) and less than 2x multiple of QQQ (1.7%).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Believe it or not, TSLA (3%) actually showing strength as it is down less than TQQQ (5%) and less than 2x multiple of QQQ (1.7%).

Ya had to do it didn't you........free fall here we come

(It has been a decent day for TSLA)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

There was a recent significant sale of stock of SpaceX by insiders. Since it isn't a public company we don't know who sold. Possibly Elon was in it. He'd still have to pay tax on the gains.

Ok let's not forget what's really going on here......Elon's sells of TSLA are in fact him getting more overall shares. He's seeing a net increase of his share count from all of this

So I very much doubt he's selling any of his SpaceX stock since it wouldn't be the same outcome. I'd put the odds of Elon willing to sell a single share of SpaceX as .000001%

 

[Discoducky]

Rivian, Lucid? There's not enough data here to really make any conclusions. Just as likely to be Ford, GM, or Tesla also.

The interesting bit is that it is LFP chemistry. And it is quite a bit. I think all auto manufacturers are ruled out except those with big LFP plans. Still, it would be weird for Tesla to sign that big of a contract with a company that has a large portion owned by VW.

 

[mrmage]

Bought shares around $901, increasing my TSLA position by 8%. Not good at catching the bottom, but don't see how 1% makes a difference in the long run.

Can increase my available margin if needed, but for now am using about 1/3 of it.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Record production?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1472972334097223686

 

[Nolimits]

So sub 900. Who grabbed them?