Nothing getting your heart beating like a -20% drop in your portfolio upon market open ... -.-
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Nothing getting your heart beating like a -20% drop in your portfolio upon market open ... -.-
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
it would be interesting to see ARK fund performance minus TSLA ... Cathy was an early Tesla supporter , but to think all these disruptions will play out like Tesla is just naive... she references the Telecom/Tech bubble/bust of 2000 and all the companies not ready for prime time .. many of ARK picks are in the same boat in my opinion ....
I looked hard at ARKx funds last year thinking maybe diversify a bit ... conclusion .... more TSLAand some Rocketlab RKLB for space exposure ... since SpaceX is not easily available
It would be foolish and pointless to remove their highest conviction holding. The idea of a fund comprised of a basket of stocks is that your returns match the weighted average return of all the holdings. And ARK is not naive because they don't believe what you attribute to them, namely that "all disruptions will play out like Tesla" (whatever that means). This is why they have so many companies in each sector.
It appears there are a lot of people that still don't understand what ARK is about. They are making broad based bets that certain sectors will out-perform the market over time. People are free to disagree with their premise, but I really don't like to see their position misrepresented. ARK admits freely they will have many losers in each portfolio.
C'mon people, this is not difficult to understand. Let's keep it accurate.
Placed a buy for 10 at 888 a bit late after I saw your post. I think we will revisit today.
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
In the long term yes, but short term Q4 numbers better be spectacular or this could get even worse. We’ve dropped $350 in a month on NO news. It’s basically all because of Elon selling and partly macro related. If we get any sort of bad/mediocre news we could head much lower, but I’ve used up all my dry powder already. Never thought we’d go below $900.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
And perhaps a slight moment of megalomania weakness? Very rare from Elon, but he was getting it from all sides.
After putting the selling plan in place, he definitely tweeted a threat to "sell more". Implying of course he can make the SP go down further. I have no issue with Elon punishing traders, but he maybe didn't quite think this one thru as much as he normally would.
Just another buying opportunity here on the ole TMC rollercoaster! I'm eying $1000/$1150 call spreads for June 2023 at a debit of $35. We'll see if Santa delivers.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Nothing is clear about it. If you really believe that last sentence, it's only because you don't understand the full range of market outcomes and how little certainty we can have about alternative paths. The market is not some predictable, mechanistic machine, no, that would never make a market.
The only sense I get is that you are frustrated, and I can only think it must be because you have some short-term bets that are not going your way. If so, I'm sorry, but please spare us the irrational moaning.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
We have a PE now, gonna be hard to make such moves after 4Q gets into all the algos. That's my warm blanket anyway!
Knightowl
Whovian
In for 50 more shares, but this is it for me and my margin buying, no more unless it falls to the 500's
Lol you think that's irrational moaning???
Dear lord man.And no, I'm in LEAPS, not short term gambling. If you think there's some grand plan for taking 30% off the value of the company with a scheduled sell strategy where Elon continually is getting less and less $ wise for his sells, then I'd say that an irrational take.
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Q4 numbers don't even have to be spectacular. We can safely assume that they'll deliver at least 270k for Q4. That's a 36k improvement over Q3. Given what we know about how much Tesla is increasing earnings for every dollar of revenue growth, that'll still drop the Forward P/E well below 100 if the stock were to stay at 900.
There's really little room here to drop further.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Lol you think that's irrational moaning???
And no, I'm in LEAPS, not short term gambling. If you think there's some grand plan for taking 30% of the value with a scheduled sell strategy where Elon continually is getting less and less $ wise for his sells, then I'd say that an irrational take.
One can only hope that Elon learned something from this, and the next time he is planning to exercise shares he re-considers a private share offering through a broker, that is done in a day. The overall impact for him, and for all shareholders, would be far less pronounced.
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
Just remember that we’ve dropped on the last several Q results even though they were great. The market isn’t always logical.
thesmokingman
Active Member
That's my motto when it comes to investing.
I really don't think Elon likes exponential rises in the stock. He has done a number of things over the years to limit the stock when it is really going. This is just another example. There is a business case for it too as it hurts the financials of the stock which can cause a different type of pop. Elon most certainly could have gone a different route on this, but I don't think he really cares about money. He cares about making points. It is likely misguided on his part that he can control the narrative, but I think that is what he's trying to do.
In the end though, Wall Street wasn't going to consistently value Tesla at 1200 per share on the fundamentals. We've seen consistently that their valuation has been between 110-125 2022 EPS. It was basically pinned in that range from mid-March until mid-Oct. Then we had a gamma squeeze that pushed the stock the limits. Elon saw it and let the air out. Combine that with EPS estimates stalling at ~8.60 and macro scares, and you have what is happening. This is all hindsight, but valuations don't stay low forever if fundamentals don't change (nor do they stay high). At 8.60, we should see the stock in the 940-1075 range. IMO anything under 1050 is clearly being undervalued by Wall Street, but we always see over corrections on volatile stocks.
Now I think most of here can agree that 2022 EPS will be much higher than 8.60 (I'd be very surprised if the first 3Qs weren't over that), but until the market gets there as a whole the fair value right around the 1T market cap... plus or minus a bit. As we move into Feb/March this valuation will change over to 2023 though which are currently around 9-10, but not enough of them are in yet. That will come after Q4 numbers and 2022 guidance.
In the end though, Wall Street wasn't going to consistently value Tesla at 1200 per share on the fundamentals. We've seen consistently that their valuation has been between 110-125 2022 EPS. It was basically pinned in that range from mid-March until mid-Oct. Then we had a gamma squeeze that pushed the stock the limits. Elon saw it and let the air out. Combine that with EPS estimates stalling at ~8.60 and macro scares, and you have what is happening. This is all hindsight, but valuations don't stay low forever if fundamentals don't change (nor do they stay high). At 8.60, we should see the stock in the 940-1075 range. IMO anything under 1050 is clearly being undervalued by Wall Street, but we always see over corrections on volatile stocks.
Now I think most of here can agree that 2022 EPS will be much higher than 8.60 (I'd be very surprised if the first 3Qs weren't over that), but until the market gets there as a whole the fair value right around the 1T market cap... plus or minus a bit. As we move into Feb/March this valuation will change over to 2023 though which are currently around 9-10, but not enough of them are in yet. That will come after Q4 numbers and 2022 guidance.
Nolimits
Member
Absolutely a gift!
From high of 890s in January 2021.
And today - price is same when two new factories are opening up. Q4/year production numbers about to report in few weeks.
-Tesla energy and insurance getting traction..
-Essentially all traditional oems now invested the transition to EVs & acknowledging Tesla.
Even Deutsch banks PT is 10% upside
Ives base case 55% from here
Also about 38% upside to ATH.
I don’t see any other megacaps thAt is safer for risk/reward imo.
- I am so broke from buying the falling knife. Got 7more at 893. I’d hate to do margin. And options- I have no clue what I am doing so I can only enjoy the show vicariously through y’all TMC gurus.
This sale is totally intentional done this way to be news cycle as long as possible as his critics highlight him as someone who is a freeloader.
The easiest and cheapest way to do this is just to buy the politicians out. Donate a few mil to Bernie Sanders/Biden and we will see them hump Elon as the greatest innovator in America history. But we know that's not his style because he believes in results, not fake politics.
I would say this strategy gets him less positive view and will net loss out on potential customers. However the customers he does get are way more "sticky" to the brand. So you pick your poison. Not a lot of people fight for Elons brand harder than any other brand because he refuse to compromise his integrity for sales..and those who are on his side appreciates this.
LightngMcQueen
Aspirationally Rational
Blackout could have been prevented with $200 chainsaw, if someone in the US mid west did their job and pruned brush under the power line
Seriously though ... grid is a very complex system and as such there are countless ways it could have been propped up. Yes, system was close to capacity at that time making it more fragile, so extra generation capacity would have helped, but there is also a question of systems and algorithms ... how system is controlled and what procedures are used in an emergency to contain failure zone, instead of letting it spread. Better control systems, allowing to selectively shed the load, would have stopped the total collapse.
I was relatively close to one of the power plants when grid went down .. ironically loss of grid stability resulted in "too much energy" in the power plant which produced a need to vent steam to atmosphere (it looked a bit concerning for a few minutes). The irony of lights going out and power plant having too much energy to handle is still not lost on me until today.
It then took 3 days to restart everything, again not for the lack of generation capacity but for the difficulty of balancing generation and load.
I think thats where megapacks and autobidder come in.
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I doubt the delivery numbers really have much impact on the stock this go round. If they are bad, yeah that will cause some issues... but the bar is ~240-250 to be 'bad' and that doesn't look to be the case. Beyond that I don't even think 290k would send the stock soaring as the market just doesn't believe that Q3 margins are sustainable (if they did, they'd have much higher price targets). When Q4 earnings come back and if they support the higher margins, that should be the big bump up.
But again, that's looking at past performance when the fundamentals and especially the METRICS are not the same as they were in the past.
Tesla's P/E and Forward P/E have never been this even remotely this low and especially after Q4 earnings. In past P/D and Earnings, TSLA could act illogical because there were no fundamentals/metrics to back up it's valuation. It was the potential of TSLA vs the Bear narrative.
Now it's potential AND fundamentals vs the Bear narrative. It's a fundamental difference. The dynamic around Tesla's earnings today has no correlation to the past because of this very reason and people banking on it acting like it did in the past will miss out. If we were at like 1200-1300 going into Q4 earnings....sure. But when the Forward P/E is 130 and it will be under 100 after Q4 earnings, I don't see it.
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