Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Gosh, How many macro trends have there been in a year?
FWIW, I've been right 100% of the time on macro trends this year!

No harm for me listening to the guy who has been a clairvoyant on SPY, QQQ, and TSLA.

So far his track record is 100% right from Tesla's run up to 1200

1. Said parabolic move like this will see a gigantic crash -correct
2. Said most likely Tsla will just bull flag after the crash -correct
3. Said after bull flag if it breaks to the down side and close below 1k, it'll fill the hertz gap - correct
4. Said strong support at 900 -correct
5. He called Tsla's down sloping resistance trend line 4 days ago at 1120, and we hit 1116 today and got rejected so -correct

These predictions were in place days before coming to fruition.

You should see the amount of people who gave him crap after he has been calling for this santa clause rally but we saw nothing but red days the last few weeks due to omicron and feds taper. Turns out to be correct again.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, for comparison, if I sold everything today it would be 0.59% / trading day.

I suggest you should calculate your compound annual growth rate (CAGR). This is the gold standard for comparing market returns.

I'm sitting at 119.9% CAGR after day 932. Compare this to industry expectations going forward:

The global automotive motors market size is projected to grow from USD 20,321 million in 2020 to USD 25,719 million by 2025, at a CAGR of 4.8%.

HODL.

 

[MABMAB]

No harm for me listening to the guy who has been a clairvoyant on SPY, QQQ, and TSLA.

So far his track record is 100% right from Tesla's run up to 1200

1. Said parabolic move like this will see a gigantic crash -correct
2. Said most likely Tsla will just bull flag after the crash -correct
3. Said after bull flag if it breaks to the down side and close below 1k, it'll fill the hertz gap - correct
4. Said strong support at 900 -correct
5. He called Tsla's down sloping resistance trend line 4 days ago at 1120, and we hit 1116 today and got rejected so -correct

These predictions were in place days before coming to fruition.

You should see the amount of people who gave him crap after he has been calling for this santa clause rally but we saw nothing but red days the last few weeks due to omicron and feds taper. Turns out to be correct again.

To my original point, those are all about calls or saids.

Show me the money, and all of it, not just one small account.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Not going to lie, I saw the Super Charger icon on my Tesla's screen on Christmas Eve and squealed like a little girl. My husband said he had never heard me sound so excited before, hahah.

I will stop by after work today and report.

So I made a quick stop after work. I don't really need a charge, so this was mostly an inspection.

As others noted in the Hawaii charger thread, you do have to get pretty close to the stall to be able to charge. I backed up until my wheels hit the bump barrier on the ground.

I didn't know this, but apparently the first super charging you do, you get this prompt (at least, every other time I super charged on the mainland with rentals I didn't get this pop up). This is the first charging my car has gotten since he was made in Fremont back in November 2020.

The indicator for charging was also in the heads up display. I last rented a M3 this year, but I don't recall the MS I rented (2016 model in 2020) having the charge display like this. Main vertical streen just had the charge limit/price on it. Maybe I'm just misremembering.

But, in good news, my 2k free miles have not expired yet, so I can use those in case of need. I probably won't go here often, as there only logical stop is after work--and this is off Kamehameha, which is netoriously bad during rush hour. I'll just continue charging at home on the weekends for the most part, excepting in case of need like if a family member comes by and I need to drive around more.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does anyone have an educated guess when HW4 may replace HW3?

It was announced a long time ago that HW4 will be introduced on Cybertruck. Don't get too excited. It's primarily a 'system-on-chip' upgrade, with the main objective being reducing cost, assembly time, and logistics.

I also expect the new Samsung Fab near Austin will produce Tesla's FSD chips, at least for N. America. That may be a few years yet before it comes online, but I'd expect it by the time the N. American version of the $25K car goes on sale.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I suggest you should calculate your compound annual growth rate (CAGR). This is the gold standard for comparing market returns.

I'm sitting at 119.9% CAGR after day 932. Compare to this alternative:



HODL.

Or buy some more!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Also got stuck in a drive though with no joking a 3 hr wait to get out so I had cars move and used a dirt road exit and went through a field and up a steep dirt embankment to the frontage road.

FSD is so amazing!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

No harm for me listening to the guy who has been a clairvoyant on SPY, QQQ, and TSLA.

So far his track record is 100% right from Tesla's run up to 1200

1. Said parabolic move like this will see a gigantic crash -correct
2. Said most likely Tsla will just bull flag after the crash -correct
3. Said after bull flag if it breaks to the down side and close below 1k, it'll fill the hertz gap - correct
4. Said strong support at 900 -correct
5. He called Tsla's down sloping resistance trend line 4 days ago at 1120, and we hit 1116 today and got rejected so -correct

These predictions were in place days before coming to fruition.

You should see the amount of people who gave him crap after he has been calling for this santa clause rally but we saw nothing but red days the last few weeks due to omicron and feds taper. Turns out to be correct again.

I would hardly say anyone is a Nostradamus for predicting the price action since Elon said he's selling. Not to toot my own horn, but I predicted the price action including the bottom at the 100 day moving average just as well as this guy . It wasn't hard, it was just tracking moving averages to see what the target was. First target was 50 day average and once that broke, I immediately said here it's going to test the 100-day average which it hit on the dot and then reversed.

Point being, I'm no Nostradamus and neither is he. He took an educated guess, the same way I did by looking at things like moving averages to see key levels. Elon could have at any point come out and said he's cancelling the scheduled stock sells, the stock would have reversed and then the moving averages wouldn't have mattered. Having said that, it's rather silly to predict price action the week before, the week of, or the week after big data such as Q4 numbers.

 

[2daMoon]

Or buy some more!

Yeah, that doesn't seem to be an option. No income (retired), and already converted all liquid assets to TSLA. Now just be-bopping along arguing with myself whether to sell shares or live on margin until my target is reached.

Might consider living under a bridge to save on costs. HODLer for as long as I can stand it.

Meanwhile I ponder odd things, like gains per market day and other such nonsense.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Tesla hiring is progressing… battery team in place. Is it time to juice the SP yet?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1475523561431392256

 

[CHGolferJim]

So I made a quick stop after work. I don't really need a charge, so this was mostly an inspection.

As others noted in the Hawaii charger thread, you do have to get pretty close to the stall to be able to charge. I backed up until my wheels hit the bump barrier on the ground.

View attachment 748997

I didn't know this, but apparently the first super charging you do, you get this prompt (at least, every other time I super charged on the mainland with rentals I didn't get this pop up). This is the first charging my car has gotten since he was made in Fremont back in November 2020.

View attachment 749008

The indicator for charging was also in the heads up display. I last rented a M3 this year, but I don't recall the MS I rented (2016 model in 2020) having the charge display like this. Main vertical streen just had the charge limit/price on it. Maybe I'm just misremembering.
View attachment 749009

But, in good news, my 2k free miles have not expired yet, so I can use those in case of need. I probably won't go here often, as there only logical stop is after work--and this is off Kamehameha, which is netoriously bad during rush hour. I'll just continue charging at home on the weekends for the most part, excepting in case of need like if a family member comes by and I need to drive around more.

Lovely blue color!

 

[Singuy]

I would hardly say anyone is a Nostradamus for predicting the price action since Elon said he's selling. Not to toot my own horn, but I predicted the price action including the bottom at the 100 day moving average just as well as this guy . It wasn't hard, it was just tracking moving averages to see what the target was. First target was 50 day average and once that broke, I immediately said here it's going to test the 100-day average which it hit on the dot and then reversed.

Point being, I'm no Nostradamus and neither is he. He took an educated guess, the same way I did by looking at things like moving averages to see key levels. Elon could have at any point come out and said he's cancelling the scheduled stock sells, the stock would have reversed and then the moving averages wouldn't have mattered. Having said that, it's rather silly to predict price action the week before, the week of, or the week after big data such as Q4 numbers.

He predicted the a dump + bull flagging days before Elon 's twitter poll. He still s to his bull flag prediction despite Elons announcement. All came to fruition as if Elons action had zero impact.

Go to the tsla section. This was the Thursday before the weekend of Elons poll.

Here predicts the bull flag going forward and this was after the -13% dump

 

[Artful Dodger]

Or buy some more!

Wot, me? Haha, my DCA is $59.12 per share right now. So yeah, I could have put in 150% my original investment to obtain 10% more shares last week. Or, wait just 3 weeks (my CAGR will do that) while doing nothing, relaxing and enjoying life and STILL get that 10% increase in TSLA returns...

I SIZED my bet appropriately 4 years ago. Let me tell you what that means. I put in 3% of my net worth (which I would NOT miss IF the investment went South) with the intent that it would grow to a million dollars by the time I reach retirement age (gotta pick a number, right?)

Tesla has VASTLY outperformed my (wildly optimistic) targets over the period in which I have been invested. Now, I'm a Teslanaire, AND it looks very favorable that I may be exceed 1 million dollars in returns ANNUALLY by the time I hit 65.

This, ALL THIS, via HODL'ing. And MMs/hedgies shenanagans never fool me because I never go for their head fake.

Paging @Hock1 (who is King? Bend the knee).

Cheers!

 

[Knightshade]

I suggest you should calculate your compound annual growth rate (CAGR). This is the gold standard for comparing market returns.

I'm sitting at 119.9% CAGR

217.39% for me, by both holding shares and some pretty safe options plays.

There's a reason those MMs you're always complaining about taking peoples money sell options. Same reason it's worth joining em. There's a nice compoundable profit in it on top of HODLing.


(and my returns are childs play compared to some of the bigger dogs in the 'other' thread who are writing hundreds of contracts at a time)

It was announced al long time ago that HW4 will be introduced on Cybertruck. Don't get too excited. It's primarily a 'system-on-chip' upgrade, with the main objective being reducing cost, assembly time, and logistics.

This is outright untrue- Elon stated at autonomy day (and has since reiterated at AI day) they expect it to be 4 times more powerful than HW3 (and likely 3x safer too), it's not just a cost play at all.... and we also have confirmation from @verygreen among others that HW3 lacks sufficient compute to provide true redundancy.... (and possibly not enough to provide the compute needed for >L2 even without redundancy) and you won't see Tesla making an unsafe move like releasing L5 without redundancy.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

He predicted the a dump + bull flagging days before Elon 's twitter poll. He still s to his bull flag prediction despite Elons announcement. All came to fruition as if Elons action had zero impact.

Go to the tsla section. This was the Thursday before the weekend of Elons poll.

Here predicts the bull flag going forward and this was after the -13% dump

And?

Practically everyone out there was predicting there would be a retracement for TSLA after a 30% breakout. I fail to see anything special here.

And once the Elon-infused selloff began, it was very easy to see there it was likely that there would be enough selling pressure and for long enough for TSLA to test it's moving averages. At that point, it was extremely easy to see the 50-day was going to be target and if that broke, then the 100-day. And this was all clearly set up to have a hard reversal the moment Elon's selling came close to finishing.

It fits into his narrative of his Bull Flag, but the reality is that what would have been a normal retracement of 10% after a breakout turned into a much larger sell off/retracement exclusively because of Elon's selling. It was very easy to read and see where the levels of support would be. I'm not saying this guy was necessarily wrong, I'm saying it was very easy to predict and getting the TSLA price action over the past 3-4 weeks hasn't been hard for anyone.

 

[Sofie]

He predicted the a dump + bull flagging days before Elon 's twitter poll. He still s to his bull flag prediction despite Elons announcement. All came to fruition as if Elons action had zero impact.

Go to the tsla section. This was the Thursday before the weekend of Elons poll.

Here predicts the bull flag going forward and this was after the -13% dump

Has he mentioned when we get back to 1200 again? That will be interesting

 

[Singuy]

And?

Practically everyone out there was predicting there would be a retracement for TSLA after a 30% breakout. I fail to see anything special here.

And once the Elon-infused selloff began, it was very easy to see there it was likely that there would be enough selling pressure and for long enough for TSLA to test it's moving averages. At that point, it was extremely easy to see the 50-day was going to be target and if that broke, then the 100-day. And this was all clearly set up to have a hard reversal the moment Elon's selling came close to finishing.

It fits into his narrative of his Bull Flag, but the reality is that what would have been a normal retracement of 10% after a breakout turned into a much larger sell off/retracement exclusively because of Elon's selling. It was very easy to read and see where the levels of support would be. I'm not saying this guy was necessarily wrong, I'm saying it was very easy to predict and getting the TSLA price action over the past 3-4 weeks hasn't been hard for anyone.

Really, I heard a lot of "break out gaps that will never be filled" narrative while everyone was high at 1200

 

[Singuy]

Has he mentioned when we get back to 1200 again? That will be interesting

His price target is still 1400

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Really, I heard a lot of "break out gaps that will never be filled" narrative while everyone was high at 1200

It was silly to think a gap from 910-950 needed to be filled...........then Elon publicly said he was selling and proceeded to do it a long and painful way that gave continually selling pressure for weeks. That changes everything and puts a lot of things on the table for the stock action.

Barring a big macro event or Tesla stumbling on their execution, I don't think that gap would have ever been filled if hadn't been for Elon's selling. Once the stock broke it's 50 MA, then it was practically a certainty the gap would fill.


All I'm saying is that certain events had to have happened for things like that gap to fill and that the stock's action for weeks has been extremely predictable but now that we're exiting what I view as a very predictable period for the stock, I think it's hard to gauge what happens near term when we have big data incoming.

 

[Sofie]

His price target is still 1400

By when? End of this year?
If I’d ever even consider selling a little to buy a house or something, my price target is signifanctly more, by many times his little 1400 target.