No, only if sp breaks our last ATH resistant of 1240. It has nothing to do with the time period. Possible a strong Q1 P&D report break us out of 1240 and hit 1400 before Q1 report.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Watch his videos for a week and you'll get some valuable info. He tags the video timestamp so your time spent is about 42 seconds
The last few months of price action made MM lots of money with the bull flag while leaving bulls and bears in the dust. Elon selling may had very little impact and was used to hide the narrative of bleeding out options when Tsla accounts for 50% of all options traded in the market.
That I absolutely do agree on. Which has been the most annoying aspect of Elon's selling strategy. It's heavily enriched MM's/Hedge Funds.
Don't get me wrong, I think there was going to be a dip/retracement of 10-15% from the 1200's regardless of Elon's selling......but they got a sell off of 30%. Hedge Funds got the best Christmas gift they've had in a long time by way of Elon's selling strategy and loaded up their stocking full of cash from this whole thing.
What?
I've followed @verygreen on Twitter for a while and I thought he said compute usage on HW3 for FSD beta was beyond what would allow redundancy.
To say that this precludes HW3 from being able to achieve some level X or Y of self driving takes a logical leap of faith. It assumes whatever final code to run FSD prod on HW3 is necessarily going to be too much to allow for redundancy. How can anyone claim to know?
To claim HW4 is what's needed takes another leap of logic. Maybe it'll take HW5!
Or maybe HW3 is already enough at some acceptable level of safety.
If nobody sells, how do market makers make money? Where does it come from?
Thanks for the clips! I didn't find his video until early December. Very insightful for beginner investors, I feel like I learned a lot from his videos. It may be intuitive for experienced investors, but me as clueless as my handle name, needed the guidance from Cory.
Had I saw the two clips you quoted above, I would have been more confident with my decisions during the last dip. All part of the investment experience! Thanks for sharing!
I bet HW3 is sufficient for the goal of 10x safer - but needs reverse please.
“So much of AI is about compressing reality to a small vector space, like a video game in reverse.” (Elon)
Didn’t Elon also mention a capability of 100x safer for CyberTruck? (Maybe because it’s so big, safer for the driver, the other vehicle not so much.) Don’t quote me - Can’t find it.
“So much of AI is about compressing reality to a small vector space, like a video game in reverse.” (Elon)
Didn’t Elon also mention a capability of 100x safer for CyberTruck? (Maybe because it’s so big, safer for the driver, the other vehicle not so much.) Don’t quote me - Can’t find it.
Krugerrand
Meow
I believe we need to have additional classes of Teslanaires to distinguish from us, the mere riff-raff millionaire.Wot, me? Haha, my DCA is $59.12 per share right now. So yeah, I could have put in 150% my original investment to obtain 10% more shares last week. Or, wait just 3 weeks (my CAGR will do that) while doing nothing, relaxing and enjoying life and STILL get that 10% increase in TSLA returns...
I SIZED my bet appropriately 4 years ago. Let me tell you what that means. I put in 3% of my net worth (which I would NOT miss IF the investment went South) with the intent that it would grow to a million dollars by the time I reach retirement age (gotta pick a number, right?)
Tesla has VASTLY outperformed my (wildly optimistic) targets over the period in which I have been invested. Now, I'm a Teslanaire, AND it looks very favorable that I may be exceed 1 million dollars in returns ANNUALLY by the time I hit 65.
This, ALL THIS, via HODL'ing. And MMs/hedgies shenanagans never fool me because I never go for their head fake.
Paging @Hock1 (who is King? Bend the knee).
Cheers!
How about Tesladecanaire and Teslacentinaire?
I subscribe and watch his videos daily. As Discoducky indicated, you can do it in a minute. So to me, it's another data set.Watch his videos for a week and you'll get some valuable info. He tags the video timestamp so your time spent is about 42 seconds
While I get some insights from his videos, he is strictly a technical trader and a lot of what he says is, ‘the trend is your friend’ and ‘if it breaks resistance, it will go higher, if it breaks support, it will go lower; until then it could trade sideways.’ Nothing earth shattering as far as I’m concerned. And nothing I've seen has had any impact whatsoever on my trades. I guess that's another benefit of being a DCAer and HODLer. No need to worry about daily/weekly fluctuations.
IMO it has never been conclusively proven that what was running on the 2nd HW3 processor was not a NN specifically sourcing good examples of training data for known edge cases. So some code running on the 2nd HW3 processor, may or may not mean anything significant.
The first working version of FSD may be far from the final optimised version. And as you suggest, the final version could use more resources, or fewer resources.
Bottom line, speculation is pointless, and more often that not it is wrong.
Run silent. Run far. Run clean.
www.teslarati.com
Tesla owners in China drove 3.72B km, reduced carbon emissions by 850k tons in 11 months
Tesla’s customer base in China continues to grow with every quarter, and with Gigafactory Shanghai still in the process of optimizing its operations, there is a good chance that the following quarters will see even more local customers take delivery of their premium electric cars in the coming...
www.teslarati.com
My question, too. No one (well, hardly anyone) here is selling. Is it just dumb-butt day traders? Bad algobots? Who the heck falls for this anymore?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Not just FSDbeta.
Tesla, since at least mid 2020 (before there even WAS an FSDBeta), has needed to use the compute on node B to run the full stack. This has gotten worse as they've added more to the code, and it's still pretty far from capable of doing L5 driving (not it's not perfect at what it does, but it's literally still missing entire featured requires for L5- see the DMV emails from Tesla where they confirm the beta lacks fundamentally required abilities L5 needs).
It also takes you making up something I never said.
I said they couldn't do L5 with redundancy. Because they lack the compute to even do L2 redundantly per Green- as you seem to admit you were already aware of.
So I'm baffled what you're actually disagreeing with that I actually said.
They might well be able to get say, L3 non-redundant on current code. Maybe even L4 (since you can heavily restrict the ODD).
But since Tesla is heavily safety focused, would never release such a system, since a single node failure would be dangerous.
Because the current code, which is deeply insufficient for L5, already is using most of the compute on both nodes.
It's certainly possible (though increasingly unlikely) they will find a way to get L5 working using 100% of compute available on the entire system-- but it means either node having any failure and the system fails.
So again, Tesla, being heavily safety focused, would never release an actual L5 system without redundancy.
Thus they'd need (at least) HW4 to be able to do that redundantly.
It's also possible even 100% of both nodes on HW3 is insufficient. It's also possible HW4 is insufficient.
Tesla was confident HW2 was enough, until it became obvious it wasn't. Tesla was confident HW2.5 was enough, until it became obvious it wasn't. Tesla was confident HW3 was enough, all available evidence is it isn't. Will Hw4 be enough? Unknown.
Until they actually get it working, nobody knows how much more compute is needed to reach the goal.
But we can be far more confident that "far less" compute isn't what'll get us there. Which is the answer you'd need for HW3 to support L5 safely.
Yes, it has.
If it were doing what you suggest it wouldn't be needing to feed data heavily between nodes, nor borrow compute from one node to the other for things split across them. Green has discussed what's actually splitting across nodes in more detail elsewhere if you wanna dig further.
And to avoid mod wraith I'd suggest both of you, as I did to the previous poster, take further/deeper discussion (which has already been covered extensively) to one of the threads here:
AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD
Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.
teslamotorsclub.com
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Actually, it has nothing to do with selling and everything to do with buying.
A lot of buying power was willing to sit on the sidelines during most of Elon's selling. Without that buying volume, MM's usual tools for pushing around a stock such as shorting, naked shorting spoofing and so on, have a more profound effect on the stock action.
My stock broker was very upset as all my investments were in TSLA and suggested diversification. So I added TSLA options...
The correlation between the value of my Fidelity portfolio going up and the number of times they contact me with suggestions for diversification are strong.
I could make it very clear to them that I'll never take their advice but there's a part of me that likes keeping them on a string thinking that just maybe the next time I'll change my mind. You'd think after two years of being strung along they'd get the hint
Lol. I have two traditional managed accounts for the boring mutual funds, annuities, etc. For the last few years, I didn't let the managers know about the account containing TSLA. Once I told them I wanted to start taking withdrawals for retirement supplement, they went nuts telling me no, no, no not enough to last 30 years.The correlation between the value of my Fidelity portfolio going up and the number of times they contact me with suggestions for diversification are strong.
I could make it very clear to them that I'll never take their advice but there's a part of me that likes keeping them on a string thinking that just maybe the next time I'll change my mind. You'd think after two years of being strung along they'd get the hint
To get them off my back, I let them know about the TSLA holdings. OMG - Let us manage that for you! Need to take profits and diversify! No, thanks. I’ve got the best investment advice I need right here.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Ah yes, "diworsification". The art of "spreading the blame around". Buffet says you only need 2 or 3 stocks. I say that owning TSLA is like owning 12 different startups in a cross-section of industries. That's my investment thesis.
I recall, years before investing in TSLA, a meeting with one of my Broker's "investment advisors". He said to put $50K in ETFs...
Lol, that might have "beaten inflation (barely). But not every year.
Cheers!
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