Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
They really should do that. Musk needs to let ir ppl take Sunday off
Zach and his team would be working on Sunday regardless. They're not going to wake up at like 3 am on Monday morning to ready the release for 6 am.

It really comes down to if Tesla wants to try and catch Wall St off guard or not. They haven't done a gotcha moment since Q3 2019 earning date announcement, so no one should be hoping for a Monday pre market release. It's 99% going to be Sunday evening.
 
Just read the NYT article on nickel mining in New Caledonia. Aside from repeating the allegation that producing an EV is more carbon intensive than producing an ICE, it is a pretty much even handed examination of the history of difficulties in New Caledonia and Tesla's efforts to do better than the past. Yes is has photos of tailings and refineries, but those do exist and are more or less sensational depending on the eye of the beholder.
The one eroneous statement that EVs are dirtier to produce than ICE cites Trafigura (Trafigura - Wikipedia) as a source. No citation to the actual study by Trafigura is given. Not clear that they would do a good job analyzing the supply chains and energy input involved as they are a commodities trading group. Motives are also unclear.
Overall not a hit piece. There ARE real difficulties in most mineral supply chains. Ignoring them will not make them go away. Tesla is doing its best.
 
Tesla is the only automaker that I’m aware of that has more cash than debt.
Thank you for the clarification. I would like to add a little more adjustment working from the Larry Page perspective.

...

So Tesla is not protected from bankruptcy by cash in the same way Ford or GM would be.

Tesla has a cushion of cash, but the protection comes from competence aligned with mission as understood by the richest people on the planet. Ellison has money, too?

If the mission and competence go away, the cash is just like any other automakers, or Apple's, cash.
In part I can agree. However, there are powerful opponents to the mission too. The competence yielded very conservative financial management which itself stems from Elon's own repeated experience with the perils of low cash reserves. Fundamentally there is no protection from failure due to the mssion. Goodwill disputes with astonishing ease when cash is low, hence wise charities are normally cash rich, simply because to not be so courts disaster.

If the mssion and competence go away, Tesla dies. On that I think we agree. Lacking those the cash can dissipate quickly.
Tesla has powerful foes we all know about, which forced better financial management than more conventional companies might have.

Rich, poor are terms thrown about but when wealth is defined by non-cash yielding shares that wealth seems quite ephemeral. Luckily for the world Elon Musk knows the difference. Since so many key Tesla people know and share both the vision and the management disciplines we can be assured that TSLA will survive the demise of Elon, albeit with much less drama and with much less driving commitment above all other things.

So, I disagree with your conclusion because the cash position is so ingrained with the entire philosophy. Losing the cash would mean that they've lost their way in many other ways too. It is, in part, symbolic.
 
I realize I had made my recession comments without pointing out how Tesla is exposed to recessions:
1. They are deeply cash positive. Perhaps the only major player in auto and energy supply that is so conservative.
2. None of their dealers will fail! None! perhaps that is because they have none.
3. Their DOH is the lowest in the auto industry, and their order backlog by far the largest. Thus if deep recession happens they have plenty of time to cut back.
4. The Gross Margins have steadily improved, production cost steadily reduced, transportation cost fo completed vehicles and parts is steadily improving.
5. The Supercharger network has turned from an expense center to a profit center, which will accurate as interoperability rises.
6. The Supercharger network growth is increasing, and has prima facie cash flow positive state already. That is speculation, but I think it is true.
7. Battery costs are rapidly going down while supply is steadily increasing, so starved sects like TE are poised for cash flow positive growth.
8. Upcoming models can use existing technologies including motors, BMS, cells, OS and much else, making new model Capex to be much reduced.

Just those eight points help Tesla to be far more recession resistant than most other businesses. In fact they are poised for much further growth even in recession because they still are not even present in many major markets, even in countries where they do have presence. For example in recession they may have better chance to service presently prohibited US States for direct sales.

Quite clearly Tesla has minimal risks as a result of recession. They do have specific facility risks due to fires, flood, earthquake, drought or other calamity but geographical diversity in facility location is.reducing that risk.
Wouldn't that be a feather in the cap of our investment thesis?: Tesla becomes a Flight to Safety stock. 😊
 
It would be nice if I could touch my toes without putting my back out. Dreams.
So you were right, Berlin approvals this year was a dream. But you too must be a dreamer to have invested in Tesla years before it was the success it is today.

Thanks for your humour throughout the year - hoping you will continue to keep us all on the straight and narrow in 2022 :)
 
Perfect fodder for the skeleton on the park bench meme.
I wonder how obviously obvious it has to be before even CNBC will start calling out the fact that TSLA isn't investment grade...........maybe when Tesla is posting more profit per quarter than all of the US automakers combined in 2022?

Nah Moody's will still say it's too risky 😅

If it isn't obvious, Moody's/S&P are in the back pocket of the investment banks. Investment banks know that when Tesla gets rated investment grade, it opens up the flood gates for a ton of funds to start buying in. Once that happens, you can say goodbye to the massive swings in the stock price that are regular in TSLA which they + hedge funds making a killing off of. They know this, they'll delay the investment grade rating for as long as humanly possible.
 
Last edited:
Still waiting on that investment grade rating Moody's/S&P....... :rolleyes: 🥱
A long time ago a Billionaire who's primary business vehicle did not have investment grade told me: "There's no way anybody who doesn't borrow a lot gets investment grade for debt. The rating agencies are paid by debtors, after all" I remember that, it's quippy, but probably true. Tesla pays back debt early, that does not engender higher ratings.

That's even true for individuals. The highest FICO goes to people who have both mortgages and some revolving credit, although the Apple Upgrade program even counts for that one.
 
A long time ago a Billionaire who's primary business vehicle did not have investment grade told me: "There's no way anybody who doesn't borrow a lot gets investment grade for debt. The rating agencies are paid by debtors, after all" I remember that, it's quippy, but probably true. Tesla pays back debt early, that does not engender higher ratings.

There's other reasons as well.....as I mention in my post above yours. The rating agencies are a sham.

The ones that really get screwed out of all of this are the people that use index funds, 401k funds, etc....Those funds can't buy into TSLA until it's investment grade. By the time the rating agencies are practically forced to give TSLA it's investment grade rating, a huge amount of the gains in the value of the company will be already realized.
 
Zach and his team would be working on Sunday regardless. They're not going to wake up at like 3 am on Monday morning to ready the release for 6 am.

It really comes down to if Tesla wants to try and catch Wall St off guard or not. They haven't done a gotcha moment since Q3 2019 earning date announcement, so no one should be hoping for a Monday pre market release. It's 99% going to be Sunday evening.
Troy released updated estimate for his paid subscribers I don’t want to disclose the numbers. But it’s very close to the number discussed here. Hopefully the China number is correct and Troy,s upping Fremont production by 10k is correct
 
Some comedy to start the day...

This morning's New York Times paper edition has the front page headline "Can a Dirty Mine Fuel Tesla's Green Ambitions?", complete with pictures of toxic sludge and mine tailings, impoverished children, and belching smoke stacks. Pages A10 and A11 are devoted entirely to framing Tesla/Musk/Tesla Owners as environmental and social hypocrites in almost every paragraph, and states "...manufacturing electric vehicles emits nearly twice as much carbon dioxide as does producing cars run on fossil fuels..."

My favorite line: '"Going green" or "acting local" are nice bumper stickers for a Tesla.'

The closing paragraph: "Green nickel is not green for us," said Gilbert Atti, the groom's brother. "Tell that to Tesla, that big American company."

Anyway, a real doozy, even for the Times, hahaha, they definitely put a bit of effort in this one.

In other news, the Dieselgate-scandal settlement check involving our Sprinter van came in the mail yesterday--the $3,515 will symbolically go to buying TSLA shares.

So, are you saying you don't think they will balance this article out with one next week showing how hydrogen cars and trucks are green in name only (with photos of oil derricks, oil spills and refineries flaring waste products) while explaining that hydrogen cars are actually dirtier and less efficient than diesel while costing at least twio or three times as much to fuel?

I mean, certainly there is no agenda to disparage one technology over another, right? 🤪

/s
 
This is a real problem for Tesla because they now have over 70,000 fewer customers in China, the worlds biggest auto market! If their sales keep rising like this pretty soon the auto market will completely disappear! 🤪
A cogent explanation as to why Mr Musk several times has exhorted all to have more children….