Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

It's clear that dealership model is doomed. Cost structure of a car attached.

How easily can OEM's shift away from dealership model? Is there a reason why they are still stuck using it or is it just stupidity?

That 16.5% looks big, but the dealers perform tasks that Tesla has to do itself: operating the entire sales and service organisation. Even if Tesla can do that more efficiently than the OEM dealers, it’s probably still a reasonable chunk of the car cost.

 

[nativewolf]

Still think holland would have been a better choice. I think it will be 2023 before things are rolling. And even then I think there will be a constant pressure by Germany to move the factory out of the country. Definitely a head shaker.

I don't think there is pressure to move it out of country. The pressure is for Tesla not to exist. It upsets the German psyche, that germans makes the best cars, that german engineering is the best, etc etc. Because though made in germany, Tesla is clearly in all ways and shapes not a german car company. It is also going to really hurt the mid level industrials that have been under pressure for years. First china then EVs. Tesla is going to move a lot of cheese in germany and ...there is going to be quite a bit less of it. They get no love in the EU as germany crushed many competitors in europe. Now they reap what they sowed. When the CEO of VW has EM on a crisis call meeting with the VW team extolling them to work harder smarter and get even a fraction of Tesla efficiency. That's what germany has trouble with...Berlin could literally be the only major auto plant in germany in 10 years.

Holland would have been a great choice as would the UK or Poland.

 

[samppa]

There may be a contrary answer to the Berlin situation. Today Tesla is battery constrained. it is still not clear where the Berlin packs will come from. Every battery cell Tesla makes is sold. Until very very recently it was not clear, to me, how Berlin was going to operate at any scale because the battery pack for that site is very specific. At least as far as I understand, that pure 4680s. Now maybe Tesla has finally cracked that problem but until early this winter we still don't have enough packs to even launch a rudimentary Semi line. Opening Berlin without have battery capacity would be unhelpful in the extreme, from strategy to competing OEM espionage/intelligence efforts, etc. Thus no real need to rush paperwork and have an approval and twiddle thumbs.

It would explain why Tesla took forever to submit basic paperwork. Assuming it is the govt agencies in Germany might be missing the more obvious answer...that it is Tesla battery constraints. It seems to me that Tesla might not have been ready to really scale and that would imply that battery challenges remain. Clearly Tesla not submitting paperwork until December is not a mistake. That's PM 101.

During factory tour, they had on
display a Y 2170 non-structural battery. Also had 4680 on display.
Berlin will start with 2170, probably these will come from LG.

 

[willow_hiller]

Take with appropriate sized grain of salt (last sentence specifically)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1478600217930907648

Did a bit of digging and found that pallets of Longi panels were spotted a few days ago on the Giga Texas roof via drone footage:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1476966221887291404

Not sure if it gives credence to the tweet, or if they spotted the same pallets when those photos were posted and are making up the rest.

Edit: replaced video with source tweet.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

During factory tour, they had on
display a Y 2170 non-structural battery. Also had 4680 on display.
Berlin will start with 2170, probably these will come from LG.

Have Elon/Tesla stated that Berlin will start with 2170? The only thing I saw was a reference to them having the option to use 2170 as a 'plan B' if 4680 had not ramped sufficiently. Can someone provide a reference?

 

[Sudre]

The official UK registration numbers came out this morning:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479022207376494594

It also proves Tesla can not be losing market share when all EVs are OBVIOUSLY taking market share from ICE.

 

[nativewolf]

During factory tour, they had on
display a Y 2170 non-structural battery. Also had 4680 on display.
Berlin will start with 2170, probably these will come from LG.

I saw that too but boy it is not clear what's happening there pack wise. Maybe @avoigt knows. I don't

Have Elon/Tesla stated that Berlin will start with 2170? The only thing I saw was a reference to them having the option to use 2170 as a 'plan B' if 4680 had not ramped sufficiently. Can someone provide a reference?

That's my understanding as well but again...it seems uncertain. AS IT SHOULD BE. It does not serve Tesla's interest to have competitors know details of the battery until it is unavoidable. If I knew that Berlin was using 4680s from the USA I could maybe swing a few months delay just on that...if from Germany facility I could delay there. You can be sure that it's "on" in germany. Back to my original point, and just my guess, that it serves Tesla for there to be external blame for Berlin not opening vs recognition that Tesla is battery constrained so much that Berlin (and Austin) can't really manufacture at scale yet. The one aspect of the business that is clear is that it is battery constrained and that one fact explains...

Berlin slow
Semi slow
Powerwall slow
Austin slow

Every product wants the 4680.

 

[lafrisbee]

Recycling from scrap will be a significant portion of feed materials in the short term.

Simply, it will not. The rapid acceleration in the number of EV's and the ten year lifespan of the vehicle.
Because of the growth in demand for such material the "portion" will stay very low for many years. At a minimum 10, probably closer to 25 years.
However the actual amount will increase steadily over the next 20-30 years.

 

[nativewolf]

All those "Germany is killing Giga Berlin" posts really piss me off. You are all oversimplyfying to a point where you make it sound as if there is only one central government involved that controls everything and acts completely arbitralily. Seems some can only think of Germany in terms of Hitler against the rest of the world/bad vs. good. It is more complex that that. /rant off

1) This is the State of Brandenburg government giving the permit, central government has little to do with it
2) At this point it is the State of Brandenburg making sure that there are no loopholes in the permit that would make it likely that "environmental" NGOs succeed in stopping production in court
3) The state of Brandenburg does have a strong interest in seeing Giga Berlin starting, for example jobs and taxes. Why would they have lobbied for getting Giga Berlin and then try to stop it?

Are there too many parties involved and antiquated rules that make the process more complex than it should be? Does it smell fishy that non-local environmental are able to sue that have been supported by other automakers? You bet. But this is not about a corrupt government.

And it might be Tesla's own issues a point I made this morning in another post. Tesla is completely battery constrained and the battery packs for Berlin won't just come from thin air. There is a reason Tesla was late submitting paperwork and it is not because Tesla does not know how to manage a project.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes​

Data last updated Jan 06, 2022 09:30 AM ET.
This page will resume updating on Jan 07, 2022 04:00 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$1075.5 -12.62 (-1.16%)
Pre-Market Volume	827,171
Pre-Market High	$1086 (04:00:00 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$1066.1 (08:00:02 AM)

So, the pre-Market was very high volume again today, with lots of swings:

As expected, we (magically teleported to) Opened at the 50-Day Moving Average:

And we've already closed gap to yesterday's SP range (so that's done), and at 09:40 we were back to the MA(50):



GLTA. Cheers!

 

[Chocochip]

It also proves Tesla can not be losing market share when all EVs are OBVIOUSLY taking market share from ICE.

Lots to discuss here, but simple version: the BEV pie is growing rapidly, and there are more and more people cutting individual tiny slices of it; everyone's slice is getting slightly smaller as a percentage of the total, while growing in absolute size.

Yeah, it's not easy to explain simply. Just imagine a pizza slice that's slowly getting narrower but at the same time it's rapidly getting longer.

 

[Nocturnal]

Well, on the bright side I might wind up with more shares if my sold Feb puts wind up ITM.

Hmm, three upvotes from Brits, all others voted down. Please let's stop with the geopolitical pissing matches.

Yeah, everyone knows that Murica is the best anyway.

 

[Unpilot]

Good lawrd this is ridiculous.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Half-way to the Mid-BB now at 09:55 ET.

EDIT:

Bares* just showing off now as the drop the SP more than $10 in less than 2 minutes from 9:55 to 9:57

*bare-naked aggression.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

And we're at 1050. Does anyone know when Tesla will publish their P&D report? I'm rooting for a surprise beat - maybe even over 300,000, one can always hope - to push the stock up to where it belongs.

 

[HG Wells]

UNBELIEVABLE

 

[SunCatcher]

And we're at 1050. Does anyone know when Tesla will publish their P&D report? I'm hoping for a surprise beat to push the stock up to where it belongs.

If TSLA stock was a person, they'd be a comedian. Yes, I'm actually laughing at this SP action. Classic TSLA fickleness.

 

[lafrisbee]

Good lawrd this is ridiculous.

This is nothing...unless you look over your shoulder at the week!

 

[PeterJA]

Lots to discuss here, but simple version: the BEV pie is growing rapidly, and there are more and more people cutting individual tiny slices of it; everyone's slice is getting slightly smaller as a percentage of the total, while growing in absolute size.

Yeah, it's not easy to explain simply....

A smaller share of a much bigger pie is more pie.

 

[Mengy]

If TSLA stock was a person, they'd be a comedian. Yes, I'm actually laughing at this SP action. Classic TSLA fickleness.

Meh, the entire market is downtrading currently, TSLA's action is just following the market. It will all go back up in time, it always does.