Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drax7]

FCF is so volatile from qtr to qtr at this stage , especially when gross margins seem
To be in huge flux given the change in mix of cars and prices.

Need some sort of price stability and steady state mix to get a better handle on margins
And cash flow.

Most important right now is sales sales and sales.
It covers up for all other unforced errors.

Cutting SGA to move to an online model did not work out entirely,
Some tweaking still going on.

Eventually the great product will reign.

 

[bhtooefr]

Only if they're interdependent changes, and my understanding is that HW3 is a drop-in, just changing which part is physically installed.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Most important right now is sales sales and sales.
It covers up for all other unforced errors.

Agreed 100%., There are a lot of people out there who believe the FUD or are distracted by the FUD, But I'd wager 99.9% of actual tesla owners right now do not believe in it. Actually owning one of these cars, driving it day to day, and laughing at the insanity of all the ICE cars around you makes up for any amount of lying headlines or twitter bullshit.
To that end, every model S,X or 3 sale is another person who is permanently inoculated against this bullshit narrative.
Plus another vector for yet more sales, as they spread the word to everyone who asks about their car.

I'd be very happy, as an investor, to hear *nothing* from Tesla or Elon for the next 10 days, just keep their heads down producing cars until the Q1 delivery reports / results.

 

[mongo]

Only if they're interdependent changes, and my understanding is that HW3 is a drop-in, just changing which part is physically installed.

Yah, starting out with what is also the retrofit unit, rather than going to a new version with liquid cooling (my expected goal). It also lets them swap back if need for some reason, and wider scale validates the module before doing retrofits.

 

[KarenRei]

Agreed 100%., There are a lot of people out there who believe the FUD or are distracted by the FUD, But I'd wager 99.9% of actual tesla owners right now do not believe in it. Actually owning one of these cars, driving it day to day, and laughing at the insanity of all the ICE cars around you makes up for any amount of lying headlines or twitter bullshit.
To that end, every model S,X or 3 sale is another person who is permanently inoculated against this bullshit narrative.
Plus another vector for yet more sales, as they spread the word to everyone who asks about their car.

I'd be very happy, as an investor, to hear *nothing* from Tesla or Elon for the next 10 days, just keep their heads down producing cars until the Q1 delivery reports / results.

Sales, sales, sales and margins, margins, margins

... and SG&A. But mostly sales and margins

 

[VValleyEV]

This I find a common error with non-native English speakers, here in Belgium, the up-coming Tuesday would be referred to as "next Tuesday", where as in English this indeed refers not to 26/3, but rather 2/4.

Correct usage is: Tuesday, next Tuesday, the Tuesday after next.

Feel free to nit-pick my FR, NL, D and DK too...

Pedantry Today:
I have noticed in this country a correlation of usage between male and femaie speakers:
female: Tuesday = this coming Tuesday; next Tuesday = Tuesday after this coming
male: Tuesday = this coming Tuesday = next Tuesday; “after this coming” is neither spoken nor understood.
Conversations between male and female about dates 3-6 days in the future: mass confusion.

 

[generalenthu]

I constantly have this discussion with native German speakers regarding the same ambiguity in German... Only way out IMHO: Use Lojban Lojban - Wikipedia

I am surprised nobody referred to this yet.

Oxt Weekend

 

[CyberDutchie]

Just curious to know how some people are inferring an S/X refresh from an update to autopilot computing unit? Does the car design rely on AP hardware/software?

No, he is just speculating. And, fueling the narrative of why softening demand... watch for the next headline “Demand for Tesla’s S/X softening due to outdated design”.

Do you see the pattern here? Any good news (e.g. HW3) will somehow be made into an issue. Tesla can’t win...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Pretty disgusted with Wall St and at the same time kinda in awe of how blatant they are with manipulation. No one for a second believes the BS demand reports this morning...….they're literally quoting the exact same FUD from a month ago(Jan/Feb US numbers are down). I'm very disappointed in investors though(not retail investors). It seems like everyone on Wall St is either in the game to drive the share price down or just complicit to let it drop all they way down to 250 share before they'll start buying, regardless of how much progress the company makes. I'm actually starting to think that a lot of the funds that hold tesla shares bought them not to ride the share price higher, but to maximize downward selling pressure in coordination with FUD and short attacks. Again though, it's my personal belief that the industries Tesla will be disrupting are bankrolling Wall st funds behind the scenes so I don't expect many of you guys are going to join me on the conspiracy bandwagon lol

It would be nice to hear something from the company or Elon. It's not material information to reaffirm guidance already given or to just say "We see no demand issues at all". We here all know from the anecdotal evidence(Euro delivery dates being may now), reports of SR+ orders not being delivered until Aug, etc...) that it's all BS.

 

[humbaba]

I don't believe in technical trading. But I'll just throw this out that TSLA has been moving opposite NASDAQ all morning.

No clue whether that will persist all day, of course.

I believe that some traders believe in technical trading
Of course, that only yields some predictive power as we don't know how much of $TSLA is being traded on a technical basis...

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Unfortunately, the media FUD definitely works on people.
However, it only works on people who have never been for a ride or driven in a Tesla before.

My mother in law recently went with an Audi A5 over the Model 3, because all the FUD stuff got her scared. When she flew in to see us and tested our Model 3, she now said she is jealous and has regret over the choice.

Anyone who actually experiences a Tesla usually is converted from all the FUD crap.

 

[scaesare]

Technical correct is the best kind of correct.

Technically, that should be "Technically correct".

 

[tivoboy]

They are independent of each other. A body and/or interior refresh is usually based on the number of years since the last one. Typically four or five. The X is not due (only three), the S is closer. Reducing the number of options, and the price, is one way to have fewer complaints (I purchased a week before a refresh).

I’d probably put the “refresh” cycle closer to 2-3 years and total “make over” at 5+. With a truly new model evolutionary n in the 5-7 range. Although t3chnically in this space I would put that at the lower end.

We just had a tiny refresh in the S last spring. With some exterior body tweaks the year prior. S and X really are due for some decent make over

 

[scaesare]

Tuesday, Tuesday week, Tuesday fortnight, is unambiguous.

"Wait, what's happening this Tuesday in the online game??"

-Millennials Everywhere

 

[KarenRei]

Macros recovering well.

 

[humbaba]

what I really want to know is, what happened to my MMD!

(cue the "bounced off technical bottom", "triple bottom", "macros", etc. -- but I wanted my Monday morning discount! )

 

[SteveG3]

Pretty disgusted with Wall St and at the same time kinda in awe of how blatant they are with manipulation. No one for a second believes the BS demand reports this morning...….they're literally quoting the exact same FUD from a month ago(Jan/Feb US numbers are down). I'm very disappointed in investors though(not retail investors). It seems like everyone on Wall St is either in the game to drive the share price down or just complicit to let it drop all they way down to 250 share before they'll start buying, regardless of how much progress the company makes. I'm actually starting to think that a lot of the funds that hold tesla shares bought them not to ride the share price higher, but to maximize downward selling pressure in coordination with FUD and short attacks. Again though, it's my personal belief that the industries Tesla will be disrupting are bankrolling Wall st funds behind the scenes so I don't expect many of you guys are going to join me on the conspiracy bandwagon lol

It would be nice to hear something from the company or Elon. It's not material information to reaffirm guidance already given or to just say "We see no demand issues at all". We here all know from the anecdotal evidence(Euro delivery dates being may now), reports of SR+ orders not being delivered until Aug, etc...) that it's all BS.

I think it is more a “conspiracy” theory to think concentrated interests in two different multi-trillion dollar industries would NOT try to kneecap this disruption to a considerable extent than to think that this is happening. The exact mechanisms are far more speculative.

That said, I have some optimism that we are a young species, as Carl Sagan said (ie, we are not defined by such current behaviors).

 

[KarenRei]

what I really want to know is, what happened to my MMD!

(cue the "bounced off technical bottom", "triple bottom", "macros", etc. -- but I wanted my Monday morning discount! )

At least one party with deep pockets clearly has a large, slow-buy policy in this price range.

Had the buying been fast, it would have instantly jumped in the morning. Had it been retail investors doing the buying, premarket wouldn't have gone down so much. Looks to be big players.

 

[pnungesser]

Pretty disgusted with Wall St and at the same time kinda in awe of how blatant they are with manipulation. No one for a second believes the BS demand reports this morning...….they're literally quoting the exact same FUD from a month ago(Jan/Feb US numbers are down). I'm very disappointed in investors though(not retail investors). It seems like everyone on Wall St is either in the game to drive the share price down or just complicit to let it drop all they way down to 250 share before they'll start buying, regardless of how much progress the company makes. I'm actually starting to think that a lot of the funds that hold tesla shares bought them not to ride the share price higher, but to maximize downward selling pressure in coordination with FUD and short attacks. Again though, it's my personal belief that the industries Tesla will be disrupting are bankrolling Wall st funds behind the scenes so I don't expect many of you guys are going to join me on the conspiracy bandwagon lol

It would be nice to hear something from the company or Elon. It's not material information to reaffirm guidance already given or to just say "We see no demand issues at all". We here all know from the anecdotal evidence(Euro delivery dates being may now), reports of SR+ orders not being delivered until Aug, etc...) that it's all BS.

Elon can release any "material" information as long as he gets prior approval. He should be able to updated/correct earlier guidance but should/will wait for the earnings call. Am I wrong about this?

 

[mongo]

I am likely reading too much into this, but the laptops Flint Schools received were Chromebooks and the in car web browser is switching to Chromium.