Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[joh01652]

From the article:

Tesla - Freemont: 8,550 cars/week
Toyota - Georgetown: 8,427 cars/week
BMW - Spartanburg: 8,343 cars/week
Ford - Dearborn: 5,564 cars/week

Electrek has an article with a graphic juxtaposing Toyota's Kentucky factory at 9M sq. ft and putting out 8.4K cars/week against Tesla's California factory at 5.3M sq. ft and putting out 8.6K cars/week. The graphic is a good illustration of Elon's desire to make factories as volumetrically efficient as possible. And if I'm not mistaken I think the goal of Fremont is to get up to about 500K cars/year, so Tesla is still in the process of squeezing more units out of the same footprint.

 

[JRP3]

Good thing I'm no quitter...ssssnnnnniiiiiiffffffffffffff

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yeah, WTF? AH margin issues?

Edit, Etrade and RH show just .5 down. Google is showing me 6%.

 

[Singuy]

What is with this clownish AH action? Up and down 15 bucks..

Is this margin call happening?

 

[bkp_duke]

Electrek has an article with a graphic juxtaposing Toyota's Kentucky factory at 9M sq. ft and putting out 8.4K cars/week against Tesla's California factory at 5.3M sq. ft and putting out 8.6K cars/week. The graphic is a good illustration of Elon's desire to make factories as volumetrically efficient as possible. And if I'm not mistaken I think the goal of Fremont is to get up to about 500K cars/year, so Tesla is still in the process of squeezing more units out of the same footprint.

In that pic, I don't see the assembly tents highlighted, legit those should be counted for Fremont. I believe they are top right of the factory in this image.

 

[ZachF]

Electrek has an article with a graphic juxtaposing Toyota's Kentucky factory at 9M sq. ft and putting out 8.4K cars/week against Tesla's California factory at 5.3M sq. ft and putting out 8.6K cars/week. The graphic is a good illustration of Elon's desire to make factories as volumetrically efficient as possible. And if I'm not mistaken I think the goal of Fremont is to get up to about 500K cars/year, so Tesla is still in the process of squeezing more units out of the same footprint.

Now imagine when Giga Austin is making 40,000 cars a week…

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Tesla earnings: 'We're expecting another very strong quarter,' analyst explains

CFRA Research Senior Equity Analyst Garrett Nelson joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss Tesla's fourth quarter and what investors should look for in Tesla's earnings report on Wednesday.

finance.yahoo.com

Dude says $1,250 PT

But on Dec 14, 2021:

Remind me again how you can just 'change' your mind and recommend stocks and get paid for it?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla earnings: 'We're expecting another very strong quarter,' analyst explains

CFRA Research Senior Equity Analyst Garrett Nelson joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss Tesla's fourth quarter and what investors should look for in Tesla's earnings report on Wednesday.

finance.yahoo.com

Dude says $1,250 PT

But on Dec 14, 2021:

View attachment 759733


Remind me again how you can just 'change' your mind and recommend stocks and get paid for it?

No big deal.....just raising my PT by 400 billion dollar after just one month.....

 

[AudubonB]

So, yesterday I said that on Friday I “picked up” a slug of shares at the closing tick of $943. Today I can claim “no foul/no harm” as was just swapping it into a different account. Ain’t self-gratification/self-deception grand?



But I DID drive for the first time today a Model 3, and not only got my wife to drive it but also her mom.
Although the m-in-law has no relative comparison to make (‘tho we are happy to say she did like it; that was much of the point of the exercise as I absolutely despise the RAV that she drives, and Jenny’s also not a fan of it).

Verdict: both Jen and I agree it not only is a wonderful machine but both of us - subject to understandable limitations- think it superior to our Models S and X.

The limitations have to do with its size. We’re not so keen on having to rent a U-Haul to load Gussie’s mandatory stuff every time we drive to the grocery store (to say nothing of the drive back)….

 

[Singuy]

LoL, so the candle stick today is called the combo breaker candle because it went green after multiple red candles. Interesting reference to Killer Instinct. Anyways, for those who believes in TA Cory is saying today looks like a bottom due to high volume selling and right after huge volume buying for the SPY.

 

[StealthP3D]

Electrek has an article with a graphic juxtaposing Toyota's Kentucky factory at 9M sq. ft and putting out 8.4K cars/week against Tesla's California factory at 5.3M sq. ft and putting out 8.6K cars/week. The graphic is a good illustration of Elon's desire to make factories as volumetrically efficient as possible. And if I'm not mistaken I think the goal of Fremont is to get up to about 500K cars/year, so Tesla is still in the process of squeezing more units out of the same footprint.

I'm not sure that's a fair comparison. It looks like they forgot to count all the tents at the Fremont facility.

Just kidding, I'm sure the fact that Tesla makes all their own seats makes up for that!

 

[Prunesquallor]

 

[NoGasNoBrakes]

Great new 2022-2025 vehicle production estimates from Troy Teslike!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1485731576918990848

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Great new 2022-2025 vehicle production estimates from Troy Teslike!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1485731576918990848

View attachment 759766

Do we really believe Tesla will only grow deliveries by 127k from 2024-2025?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Great new 2022-2025 vehicle production estimates from Troy Teslike!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1485731576918990848

View attachment 759766

Not really......he's severely underestimating every Gigafactory's potential output except for Fremont.

He's for some reason completely ignoring Tesla's and Elon's own words about how they want more production out of fewer Gigafactories. To think that Berlin and Austin in 2025 will out be outputting only 650k or so annually is a joke.

 

[NoGasNoBrakes]

Not really......he's severely underestimating every Gigafactory's potential output except for Fremont.

He's for some reason completely ignoring Tesla's and Elon's own words about how they want more production out of fewer Gigafactories. To think that Berlin and Austin in 2025 will out be outputting 680k or so annually is a joke.

He provides pretty decent reasons for why he believes the numbers will be that low, though I’d agree with you that numbers he presents are definitely way lower and much more conservative than I would’ve thought. There’s no guarantee that GigaFactory production will continue to scale up as fast as it has been in Shanghai, though.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1485738124537966593

https://twitter.com/x/status/1485734189441945614

 

[H Mak]

Great new 2022-2025 vehicle production estimates from Troy Teslike!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1485731576918990848

View attachment 759766

So 50% average annual growth looking decidedly unlikely beyond 2023 without new factories. I'm not scoffing at 2.8m vehicles, but it underlines the importance of new facilities coming on stream. Either that or he's underestimating the capacity of the existing ones.

Edit: Tesla have consistently maintained their target of 20m vehicles by 2030. So something doesn't stack up here.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

He provides pretty decent reasons for why he believes the numbers will be that low, though I’d agree with you that numbers he presents are definitely way lower and much more conservative than I would’ve thought. There’s no guarantee that GigaFactory production will continue to scale up as fast as it has been in Shanghai, though.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1485738124537966593

https://twitter.com/x/status/1485734189441945614

He has ZERO clue as to what Tesla is planning for in terms of how much they can increase output out of the newer, faster, and more efficient production lines inside of both factories or even how many lines they have or can have in each building. Keep in mind he was entirely off on production numbers out of Shanghai and Tesla in general at the beginning of Q4. Yes his final numbers ended up being at least somewhat closer but he was way off at the beginning of the quarter. So.......

As for his second comment "Tesla or Elon never said 50% growth each year. They always said 50% per year on average and they added that some years will be higher and some lower than 50%."........... I've never seen any wording that Tesla/Elon/Zach ever saying "some lower than 50%. I've remembered hearing the phrase expect 50% growth with some years being materially higher. Some please correct me if I'm remembering that wrong.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I suck at math but what my 9 year old daughter wrote down was the following when i asked her for her projections:

Freemont: 650k
Shanghai: 1.5M
Berlin: 750K
Austin: 750K

She also said that as long as supply chain issues, battery production, demand problems might contribute to slow downs but she added it all up and came up with 3.65M (conservatively of course)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Do we really believe Tesla will only grow deliveries by 127k from 2024-2025?

I kinda wish that were the case since I'd like to see Tesla more focused on Energy products at scale from 2024 onward, but he's actually just wrong. Elon will crush those numbers.