Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

He has ZERO clue as to what Tesla is planning for in terms of how much they can increase output out of the newer, faster, and more efficient production lines inside of both factories. Keep in mind he was entirely off on production numbers out of Shanghai and Tesla in general at the beginning of Q4. Yes his final numbers ended up being at least somewhat closer but he was way off at the beginning of the quarter. So.......

As for his second comment "Tesla or Elon never said 50% growth each year. They always said 50% per year on average and they added that some years will be higher and some lower than 50%."........... I've never seen any wording that Tesla/Elon/Zach ever saying "some lower than 50%. I've remembered hearing the phrase expect 50% growth with some years being materially higher. Some please correct me if I'm remembering that wrong.

From Q3 2021 transcript

Zach Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Thanks, Martin. You know, our goal as a company here is to grow on an average pace of 50% per year. And so you can extrapolate that out.

You know, there may be some periods of time in which we're well ahead of that. There could be some periods of time, despite best efforts, where we're slightly lower than that. But that remains the long-term goal of the company. In Fremont, you know, we're continuing to push the boundaries of what's possible there.

 

[vikings123]

LoL, so the candle stick today is called the combo breaker candle because it went green after multiple red candles. Interesting reference to Killer Instinct. Anyways, for those who believes in TA Cory is saying today looks like a bottom due to high volume selling and right after huge volume buying for the SPY.

Cross posting this from the other thread.

Interesting tweet, data for NDX seems to suggest we can go up in the short term but down in the medium term. Of course we have earnings on 01/26….

https://twitter.com/x/status/1485731200350277639

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You didn't think we'd get to earnings with out hearing from Linette did you?

Imagine paying for your kid to go to Columbia journalism school and all they do with it is copy/paste emailed "articles" from hedge funds managers.

I'd be disappointed.

And shame on you Elon for becoming a secret puppet of the Communist Chinese government!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

From Q3 2021 transcript

Zach Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Thanks, Martin. You know, our goal as a company here is to grow on an average pace of 50% per year. And so you can extrapolate that out.

You know, there may be some periods of time in which we're well ahead of that. There could be some periods of time, despite best efforts, where we're slightly lower than that. But that remains the long-term goal of the company. In Fremont, you know, we're continuing to push the boundaries of what's possible there.

Thanks!

I would say growth of only 127k from 2024 to 2025 is more than "just slightly lower than that"

 

[mongo]

Thanks!

I would say growth of only 127k from 2024 to 2025 is more than "just slightly lower than that"

Troy calls out he is not including new factories / expansion needed in 24/25.

 

[nativewolf]

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Bastard! Just a bit jealous

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Troy calls out he is not including new factories / expansion needed in 24/25.

Right but my point is, his dependency for growth is more factories or expansion as in completely new buildings at Berlin/Austin.......which goes right in the face of what Tesla/Elon just talked about on last earnings call/annual shareholders meeting. In which, they want more production out of fewer Gigafactories.

We're already seeing this with Shanghai where they're way past the initial goal for annual production capacity. In fact they're laughably way past the stated annual production capacity. Tesla is on record as saying they want to expand Shanghai even more along with expanding Fremont by 50%.

It's clear what Tesla is choosing to do here. If Shanghai has the space for enough lines to run 750k production rate right now and they're going to continue to expand production capacity in that same building....then Austin will absolutely hit 1.5 million annual production. We have absolutely no idea what the max number of production lines that can be run inside of Austin/Berlin or how fast each line can produce cars.

All we know is the old stated goal of 500k production rate. But as we've seen in Shanghai, it's more of a baseline for the first phase and production capacity will continue to increase over time.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Bastard! Just a bit jealous

If it makes you feel better, it’s too cold and rainy to try it out.

 

[heltok]

Troy is estimating numbers IF no additional expansion happens. I think he is a bit low, Austin building is much taller than Shanghai and probably has a higher density as Musk has been talking about previously. Any good figures for the geometric volume of the different factories?

My thought is that Tesla is intending to flood the market with Model Y, drive down the costs of these by scale and then drive up demand by lowering the price when needed. It’s a safe bet and it will kill the competition. Austin can probably spit out 750k Model Y by itself once enough batteries are produced.

 

[BornToFly]

Painful day. I had to close a bunch of Put spreads at a loss, but I did pick up a bunch of shares around 875. It's so weird - If Wall Street wants the most promising growth stock to put their money into, TSLA seems like an obvious choice. A lot of earnings today and tomorrow. Hopefully after Wednesday everyone will have a good idea of where to put their money for the year....

 

[Singuy]

Listening to an interview of Ross Gerber, he bought the dip today aggressively. Stated that 15 dollars earnings for 2022 makes 850 a share just too freaken cheap.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

IBM had a goodish quarter. Popped 7% and settled around +2.5%.

 

[traxila]

Right but my point is, his dependency for growth is more factories or expansion as in completely new buildings at Berlin/Austin.......which goes right in the face of what Tesla/Elon just talked about on last earnings call/annual shareholders meeting. In which, they want more production out of fewer Gigafactories.

We're already seeing this with Shanghai where they're way past the initial goal for annual production capacity. In fact they're laughably way past the stated annual production capacity. Tesla is on record as saying they want to expand Shanghai even more along with expanding Fremont by 50%.

It's clear what Tesla is choosing to do here. If Shanghai has the space for enough lines to run 750k production rate right now and they're going to continue to expand production capacity in that same building....then Austin will absolutely hit 1.5 million annual production. We have absolutely no idea what the max number of production lines that can be run inside of Austin/Berlin or how fast each line can produce cars.

All we know is the old stated goal of 500k production rate. But as we've seen in Shanghai, it's more of a baseline for the first phase and production capacity will continue to increase over time.

IMO, at least four million can be hit with present Gigas. I believe as high as 6 million. Wouldn’t surprise me if Austin alone has a long term target of 3M by 2028. Elon will build a completely alien dreadnought at some point that will be the final shock and awe blow to the rest of the industry.

Ultimately, think Elon is targeting 2 million a GIGA, which means we need about five more for that 20 million number. But first we need a Model 2. Pretty sure that is what the next GIGA will be all about.

 

[MC3OZ]

Troy is estimating numbers IF no additional expansion happens. I think he is a bit low, Austin building is much taller than Shanghai and probably has a higher density as Musk has been talking about previously. Any good figures for the geometric volume of the different factories?

My thought is that Tesla is intending to flood the market with Model Y, drive down the costs of these by scale and then drive up demand by lowering the price when needed. It’s a safe bet and it will kill the competition. Austin can probably spit out 750k Model Y by itself once enough batteries are produced.

It also seems to me like there is plenty of land at Austin, Berlin and Shanghai to build more production facilities if needed.

Austin in particular, has plenty of space, when Berlin and Austin are cranking out high volumes of Model Ys, funding that production expansion will not be difficult.

There may be some limitation, probably enough skilled workers, parts supply or raw materials. But I'm more or less expecting continuous construction at Austin for a few years, we will find out if I'm right.

I also think it is possible that Tesla may build more factories to produce energy storage batteries and possibly cells for energy storage. IMO there is more choice of location for this type of factory, less land, and fewer workers, should be required.

 

[Krugerrand]

I suck at math but what my 9 year old daughter wrote down was the following when i asked her for her projections:

Freemont: 650k
Shanghai: 1.5M
Berlin: 750K
Austin: 750K

She also said that as long as supply chain issues, battery production, demand problems might contribute to slow downs but she added it all up and came up with 3.65M (conservatively of course)

If you’d be so kind as to have her open an account here and post that demand issue, that’d be helpful.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It also seems to me like there is plenty of land at Austin, Berlin and Shanghai to build more production facilities if needed.

Austin in particular, has plenty of space, when Berlin and Austin are cranking out high volumes of Model Ys, funding that production expansion will not be difficult.

There may be some limitation, probably enough skilled workers, parts supply or raw materials. But I'm more or less expecting continuous construction at Austin for a few years, we will find out if I'm right.

I also think it is possible that Tesla may build more factories to produce energy storage batteries and possibly cells for energy storage. IMO there is more choice of location for this type of factory, less land, and fewer workers, should be required.

As @traxila just posted, I expect each newer Gigafactory to improve on the manufacturing process to where more production is possible out of the same or smaller workforce than in previous Gigafactory's. With the eventual goal being a very small workforce (at least relative to the amount of workers needed for production levels on auto's in the past, even recent past) being there to just oversee the process while the machines build the machines.

Tesla swung and struck out in a embarrassing way with their first attempt at alien dreadnought. I think they'll look to achieve it in stages going forward, but I definitely still think that's the goal of Elon/Tesla. Maybe even down the road the Teslabot is handling the more delicate, more human like process that are needed.

It's an exciting thought for the future for sure.

 

[AudubonB]

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Aren't those pomegranates nice? But why it is you're showing us them...I just don't understand.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm not sure that's a fair comparison. It looks like they forgot to count all the tents at the Fremont facility.

Just kidding, I'm sure the fact that Tesla makes all their own seats makes up for that!

I had someone on Twitter try to argue that point today. A self claimed "automotive engineer" (anyone who has to show off their credentials to make their point, can't make a good point) said that it wasn't a fair comparison because they didn't include the Tents, but also using tents is very inefficient.

So a benefit, but also a negative. What is it about Tesla that makes people so stupid?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I hereby end all production related chatter, or two-sided tomfoolery.

Today we sank to the abyss and then recovered to glory. Tomorrow is a FOMO continuation party into the explosive earnings announcement and near immediate ATH.

Act like it!

 

[Accident]

IBM had a goodish quarter. Popped 7% and settled around +2.5%.

They refused to provide any guidance during the call. In today’s market, that’s bearish.