Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

Is it possible that not working on a “$25k car” is a way to eliminate any Osborn effect?

When in reality they’re working on a smaller compact car that will sell for like $5k cheaper than the model 3 in 2024, but not force Tesla to commit to a price point.

I think so. The Shanghai and Berlin design center exist for a reason.


Keep calm and accumulate on

WRT to $25k car I never expected it until 2025 or later anyway.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Tesla beats in Revenue and Earnings.
Yahoo Finance now show Q1 2022 Consensus EPS as $2.15, a drop from just released Q4 2021 of $2.56.
So the Consensus just doesn't get where Tesla is going (purple line), and Consensus has reset their misinformed estimates which they will continue to push upwards over the course of the quarter as they have always done. Tesla's trend is onwards and upwards. The 2021 Financials and 2022 Look Ahead only supports this movement. TSLA will catch up with Tesla, it always has. Time is your friend.

 

[Mengy]

Elon said they are not working on a $25k car....they could be working on a $30k car and his statement would still be accurate

Or, they might have the $25K designed and ready to go, but are simply waiting until a later date to start producing it. So in essence they are mostly "done" working on it.

 

[kbM3]

FSD possibly eventually includes being able to hire a Robotaxi for a day or a week, the line between Robotaxi and hire car might be blurred.

Some people will want to owe a private car, and not let it operate as a Robotaxi.

Some people will unload all their gear, before sending the car out to work as a Robotraxi.

Some people will buy a new car, and let the old one work as a Robotaxi.

Radio didn't fully replace the Newspaper, TV didn't fully replace radio, etc, the old model and the new model always co-exist and people decide which one they prefer to use at any point in time, Some may take a Robotaxi to work, because the car has been washed and is loaded up with gear for the weekend trip.
Next week they will drive the car to work, on Friday they may let the car drive them home.

Overall these is more choice, not less choice.

I don’t think hiring a robo-taxi for a week will make sense, unless your mileage would be much higher that week. Assume before market saturation, each robo-taxi can charge $0.50 mile and have demand for 2k miles per week. You would need to pay $1k to make it worthwhile to them.

 

[ZachF]

Were "that guy" to stop, what would stop another from taking his place?

IDK, not wanting to pick legal fights with dudes that have essentially unlimited resources…

 

[Big Time]

Just awful performance by the market. Very depressing day for me, yet I swear this has happened before......

 

[Paul_SF]

Elon is pissed! LFG

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486767109275328516

 

[StealthP3D]

Disagree, they said the existing plants are underproducing due to part shortages and F&S could do 50% more on their own.
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
Zach:

I was addressing Elon's comment that they could hit the 150% number this year with planned upgrades to Fremont and Shanghai without any contribution from new factories. There is no doubt they are running under-capacity now due to part shortages, but Elon indicated the existing plants had some planned upgrades to further increase capacity.

 

[NicoV]

’De Tijd‘ (The biggest business newspaper in Belgium) seems to have seen the light: https://www.tijd.be/content/tijd/nl...3Abi4OSx22dKdBb0oWZ7ogZIgMcpLZ6uYCAsrJGrqRSEI
‘Tesla gets Porsche-margins with Volkswagen volumes’.

 

[GOVA]

Well, Elon needs 3 jets. Problem solved.
Can I get 5K now?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Martin Viecha: Question from Toni Sacconaghi of Berstein. Toni, please go ahead.
Toni Saccaghi: Yes thank you. This question is directed at Elon. Elon, without the $25k car, how will you get to 3.2m cars in 2024?
Elon: I'll let The Accountant take this question.
The Accountant: Thanks Elon. Toni, I posted my 5 year plan on TMC on Jan 17. As you can see, the $25k compact is not needed in 2024 to reach 3.2m deliveries. The Model Y will be the best selling car in the world while being produced in 4 factories and the Cybertruck will be in its second year of production. If the compact comes in 2024, it will be icing on the cake. Oh and by the way, you didn't ask but I'll add, Tesla will have industry leading operating margins of 22% in 2024.

View attachment 760928

Tesla Valuation Based on 5 Year Outlook

Great set of numbers. I should just quit my job now :). Why do residential solar roof sites increase to 1.2m/yr in 2023 before dropping back to 50k/yr from 2024 onwards? Ooops. I made a silly and overwrote the equation in the MW-table that was driven by the #-table. So the MW table is...

teslamotorsclub.com

Nominated for "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit".

Yep, its all about Messenging. Take'em to school, Ben.

Thank-you

 

[SOULPEDL]

Conclusion: The long-disused term "Dreadnought Factory" looks, in fact, to be real.

Either through zero humans, or possibly Primus complimented. Very cool thought.

Here's Elon's description from 2016, and he states this as a requirement to winning.

Musk: Tesla's factory will become an 'alien dreadnought'

"The point at which that’s what the factory looks like, that when you know you’ve won."

www.businessinsider.com

 

[kbM3]

The way I figure it is once robotaxi is enabled it's simple math.

1,000,000 lifetime miles
$0.20 revenue per mile
$200,000 total revenue
-$57,000 cost of vehicle
$143,000 profit / 10 years
~25% annual return on investment

If the numbers line up to something like this I'll be buying as many as I can to go make me money.

1M miles * 50% utilization (Elon’s own figure for robo-taxis driving to pick up fares) = 500k revenue miles.

 

[Paul_SF]

It’s ON

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486769461935886345

 

[S3XY]

After my kid goes away to college, I might like to get a Tesla Bot to sit around the house.

Besides, You'll need someone to take care of your Boston Dynamics dog while you're out.

 

[insaneoctane]

Not to derail this thread, but if it was so important, you’d think Tesla’s director of AI would stop following them way before us….

View attachment 760951

To be fair, AK probably is the only subscriber with a legitimate reason to want to know where EM is....But agree that he, like me, should unsubscribe. Like a hot potato. Greedy bastages.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Besides, You'll need someone to take care of your Boston Dynamics dog while you're out.

Best video posted would be the Tesla Bot taking the BD dog out for a walk.

 

[juanmedina]

Good stuff

 

[ZachF]

It’s ON

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486769461935886345

Would like to respond, but…

 

[Drumheller]

I was addressing Elon's comment that they could hit the 150% number this year with planned upgrades to Fremont and Shanghai without any contribution from new factories. There is no doubt they are running under-capacity now due to part shortages, but Elon indicated the existing plants had some planned upgrades to further increase capacity.

I'd like to add that it was stunning to me that Tesla can grow Fremont another 50%. That factory was not purpose built and optimized for Tesla production. It was quite a bit of ad hoc changes and crammed production. Incredibly impressive that they can grow it another 50% when it already seemed maxed out. Guessing they did some serious space usage reorg while redoing the model s / x line.