Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dutchie]

All these stories of buying 20 more buying 50 more…

I had some Dropbox shares which were a little higher than I bought them. From proceeds I bough 4 more TSLA. Big move for me, however could not not make this move with TSLA on a huge sale this morning.

 

[Knightshade]

Contact the Secret Service, and the FBI.

Why?

He's publishing information taken from public databases, and doing so perfectly legally.

You can certainly make moral arguments why he should stop. But not legal ones.

 

[woodisgood]

Regarding the “25k car,” it should be painfully clear why it is inextricably linked to FSD in Elon’s mind, and why saying anything about it right now is premature.

While Elon has an expectation of how FSD will change car ownership and transportation costs at a high level, there remain many unknowns, even for him and Tesla. He can have confidence in how good FSD will become, but he cannot yet guarantee it. And regulation of autonomy is something that Tesla also will have very little control over. So why commit the company’s resources to a specific product that cannot yet be fully detailed because the speed and scale of FSD’s disruption is to become clearer in 2022.

I believe strongly that Tesla is ready for a number of divergent outcomes (design teams have been busy), but committing to any one of those at this stage is premature. Elon did, however, move up the announcement of new factory locations (previously said 2023, now he’s thinking they may be able to announce in 2022). This tells you they can‘t yet show you exactly what they will produce there because it is dependent on FSD’s progress and outlook this year. If FSD looks like it will continue to be a dream that is years away either due to technical or regulatory challenges, you’ll get those new factories producing the predictable slightly smaller hatchback version of Model 3 with a steering wheel. If FSD arrives, those factories may be producing something quite different.

Yes I know it is tempting to envision a vehicle that is a hybrid, ready to bridge the gap between our current car ownership reality and autonomy, but I think in Elon’s mind that’s 3/Y and the next one is going to be one or the other. Plus the hybrid model doesn’t jive with the cost efficiencies Tesla strives for. Using @Artful Dodger terminology (yes we all know there’s nothing called Model 2), I think they are waiting to see if they go Model 2 followed by Model 1 or if they just skip straight to Model 1 (purpose-built robotaxis). The supply chain situation has allowed that to actually be a decision since FSD development has proceeded normally while production capacity has been slowed.

 

[Sudre]

Respectfully, I disagree.

Here's the portion of the call (word for word from the transcript)...

...If there is no $25,000 vehicle being worked on, is it really realistic to think that you can sell more than 3 million vehicles with two very high-volume cars and Cybertruck in 2024, or how do we think about that or what else is missing in that equation?

Elon Musk

Yes. I mean, it's apparent from the questions that the gravity of Full Self-Driving is not fully appreciated. If an asset has 5 times more utilization than the -- it's like dividing the cost of that asset by 5....


He literally answers the question about not working on the $25K EV with FSD and how people don't get the math...

I think people (analysts) get the math. I am optimistic about what Elon laid out. I think people don't believe the FSD hype. It has been hyped for too long.

Look at this more straight forward. How many places in the world allow cars to drive themselves without a person in the drivers seat. Out of those (very few) places that allow cars to drive themselves, how many FSD cars can be sold in those regions. That will give you the math of how much FSD profit there will be.

I'll make up some numbers....
200K FSD cars at $20K profit is? $4B I see an FSD car as hugely profitable. (that'd be 2023 before more places start allowing FSD)
I am sure Hertz alone would buy those 200K cars if not simply to have to car deliver itself to the customer who would then drive it.

How many places in the world allow a low margin car to be driven by a person? (ALL)
2 million cars at $2000 profit is? 4B (that'd be 2025 if Tesla built the factory and started ramping in 2023)

Analysts simply do not believe FSD can happen. I can understand their hesitation.

If FSD does happen before 2025 then Tesla can make the same profits off 200K cars as they could off 2 million small cars. One is much easier than the other. I am wondering if that will really displace ICE tho. It does wonders for Tesla's bottom line but not much for emissions. Small cars will HAVE to be replaced with Tesla like range and charging.... oh-well.

IMO if FSD doesn't work in 2022, Tesla still has time to ramp up a smaller car in China if they start building the factory in early 2023.

To me it is win-win. For analysts it risk-risk.

 

[Skryll]

It’s ON

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486769461935886345

Why the hand wringing and push back. The point of Bidens efforts is rallying for Ford and GM to make more EV locally than ever before. That does not mean they make more than Tesla, Tesla doesnt need the encouragement, Ford and GM do. It must be his top priority to prevent them needing a bailout by cheerleading them into the future. Let him.

 

[MABMAB]

If we are going to go up, now is about the time

(Edit) in other words, this should be low of day timing wise

 

[Rammstein]

Sold out of most of my other stocks and put it in Tesla this morning. Not sure why I diversified haha. This just seems like a deal of the century!

 

[Krugerrand]

i pretty much agree with all of this. I see the potential for it to be a real world-scale game changer. I mean, there's a reason Elon keeps talking about the labor market in the terms he does when discussing the bot.
That said - context. This was an earnings call. What did we do in Q4/2021, and maybe some color on the product roadmap. I don't think they provided that for Optimus, so i'd rather have gotten that conversation in a different context. My eye-roll comment was more for how it was mentioned and when, vs not believing it's a real, valuable element for them.

Welcome to Tesla’s ER call where predictability is almost always left at the door and spelt ‘are-you-not-entertained?’ Consider yourself forewarned for future calls.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I think you're saying that the 2 events ($25K and FSD) are mutually exclusive but may overlap in time to potentially diminish the need for a lower priced version? This is not only bullish FSD, but also bullish margins to focus on fewer products needed to get to full autonomy. Risk is still there should macro demand taper and FSD isn't deployed in time. OK, now bring in the $25K version, but there's a better path $$$ if not needed.

I think people are conflating Elon's answers to questions on the $25K car such that they think Tesla isn't working on it because they think they'll solve FSD this year.

In reality, I think Elon responded directly to the question by affirming that demand for existing products is so strong, and will allow such a high volume ramp, that there's no need to release or even talk about a $25K car at this time, which would only lower output and take sales away from higher margin vehicles (makes perfect sense). And as part of that process, his mind instantly goes to: "When we solve FSD, a $25K car becomes moot."

It takes careful parsing to separate the two, and I think one could be forgiven when interpreting his answer as: "No $25K car because FSD!"

 

[StealthP3D]

I think this is worth sharing in this thread, even though not directly about investing.

The Twitter account Elon Musk’s Jet has been posting tracking data about where Elon's jet goes with dates, times, and places. Elon has contacted them, asked them to stop due to security concerns, and offered $5000. The account owner responded that they want $50,000 from Elon to stop.

If you are following thr Elon Musk’s Jet account on Twitter, I request that you consider unfollowing that account. Thank you.

Thank you for this. I don't know anything about Twitter - isn't it possible to block Elon Musk's Jet account so it's not seen incidentally while browsing Twitter?

 

[-=buzz=-]

What does a labeler do. Thank you for your patience.

Labeler job description:

Basic job: Mark all the categories and items you want your neural-net(s) to know about on a picture. -> next picture. -> maybe verify someone else's picture.
Advanced job: Mark all the categories and items you want your neural-net(s) to know about on a video clip, which gets auto propagated -> next clip. -> make verify someone else's clip.
Future job: verify & correct the labels on a video clip which were set by a neural net, likely even the one you're actually training further.

 

[neverdone]

Is no one buying today? is everyone out of powder?

I bought 20 @860 in my IRA; immediately went down to 850. Didn't help.

 

[Krugerrand]

Do You See MY Problem?
Via Moneyball on Twitter, Tesla December production at Shanghai was 66,579.
That's an annual run rate of 801k.
View attachment 760925

My forecast for 2022 had Shanghai at 802k. So many upsides to my 2022 forecast I don't know where to start.

View attachment 760926

Breathe. We’ll wait for your numbers. How does tomorrow work for you? Please add more pictures. I really enjoyed the clown ones. If you could include lions and tigers and kittens, oh my!

 

[Stars aligned]

Early results only but when 90% of users on a Tesla forum don't believe level 4 autonomous driving will be a reality this year Elon has a credibility problem to overcome. Hopefully this year will demonstrate significant progress.
Post Elon Update Poll on FSD

​

Frankly, the much touted "Roadmap Update" was pretty much a disgrace. It consisted mainly of the information that new vehicle productions and developments are on hold and a lengthy monologue about FSD Level 4 vaporware and Optimus even more vapor. Additionally, a big red flag re supply chain.

It's almost as he wants to bring down the stock price intentionally. And that's not difficult in this environment, after the stock multiplied by 25 the sentiment goes in the other direction. It may well get now as much undervalued as it was overvalued when it hit 1250.

And that's just fine for me, I can wait for the capitulation to come. When the majority gets desperate on this board, it might be the right time to buy again. Until then, stay safe.

 

[Krugerrand]

Well... if they don't need more factories, I wonder how Berlin responds? Could be a strategy to get it open at least. Maybe board it up some to send the message loud and clear. (OK, no don't do that, I'm a shareholder.) But that could be a new posture following the China growth story, then say they don't need more factories this year. Now watch Berlin open...

When Elon spoke in the EC and others were silent, long pauses, I got the sense he was instructing/managing the board as well. He certainly put a firecracker under the FSD team. Maybe some folks don't see this as leadership, but he's a new breed with a new style, total package.

On investment, I am so used to seeing my portfolio bounce all over the place that I'm numb to today's action, and it doesn't matter long-term anyway. I literally get the eyerolls from my wife now "Honey it's up 100K", next day "Honey, it's down 125K." Whatever!

I did get a warm and fuzzy about FSD yesterday, (even though our Model Y attempted to run a red left turn arrow, same day). Forget about the trees, the forest is lush. Go FSD Team, you can do this!

Bob’s laughing at you right now, isn’t he?

 

[woodisgood]

I contend it makes no difference if Elon is right about the timeline or not and that focusing on that is just someone that needs to complain, throw blame around and be critical about something to be happy in life.

FSD today, tomorrow, this year, next = irrelevant to the company’s today financial stability, bottom line, profitability et al nor ability to continue to decimate the *competition* that isn’t coming, continue to grow as fast as humanly possible and bring us into a sustainable future.

Here’s the punchline: one day Elon is going to be right and FSD will come into being and all you flinging monkeys are unfortunately going to benefit immensely from the person who stuck his neck out on your behalf and risked it all, and you’ll be no more grateful nor apologetic than you’ve ever been. I have seen the future and the humans are just as ugly inside then as they are now. That people think it’s their right to be critical of others doing their best because they have some money on the line and think they know better is disgusting behavior.

If I could love this post any more I’d be leaving my wife. LOL

 

[stealthyc]

uptick rule now right?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I'm trying to get out of margin to buy a Y in 1.5 months. So, I sold to cover 40% of my margin balance just before JPOW went on yesterday. Now these darn low prices are trying to suck me back in. Staring too hard at the ticker...

I caved in and bought the 30 shares back. My internal dilemma is, on one hand the stimulus package expired, the Fed is raising rates and there is a negative market sentiment. On the other hand, I believe people will be digesting the numbers over the next few day, conclude the outlook is pretty darn good, and step in to buy.

 

[aronth5]

I contend it makes no difference if Elon is right about the timeline or not and that focusing on that is just someone that needs to complain, throw blame around and be critical about something to be happy in life.

FSD today, tomorrow, this year, next = irrelevant to the company’s today financial stability, bottom line, profitability et al nor ability to continue to decimate the *competition* that isn’t coming, continue to grow as fast as humanly possible and bring us into a sustainable future.

Here’s the punchline: one day Elon is going to be right and FSD will come into being and all you flinging monkeys are unfortunately going to benefit immensely from the person who stuck his neck out on your behalf and risked it all, and you’ll be no more grateful nor apologetic than you’ve ever been. I have seen the future and the humans are just as ugly inside then as they are now. That people think it’s their right to be critical of others doing their best because they have some money on the line and think they know better is disgusting behavior.

I'll assume your last paragraph wasn't meant for me since I have always been and will continue to be a strong Elon supporter.

 

[MC3OZ]

So IANAME (not a Mech Eng) but if that structural battery pack is providing any structure....it begs the question as to a car made without one vs one made with the structural battery pack. Would you have to get a different certification on safety? Where is the structure coming from to replace the engineered aspects of the structural battery pack. Sandy Munro and team discussed this in some detail in one show and I took it to mean that it was providing value to the entire body. I would not think that's something you'd just easily dispense with but what do I know. IANAME. Dual casting and 4680 structural battery packs (any structural battery pack) seem to offer tremendous advantages in assembly, fit, and long term reduction in service. EDIT_Ahh..I see you replied above. It's an interesting thing. On the one hand Kudos to Tesla's team for allowing the optionality!

The wording had been if required they would use it, they designed a fall back. It was dependent on 4680 production coming online. In the transcript they say...no 4680 constraints. But Berlin was designed to use 4680 structural and can fall back to something else. If anything less there is a constraint somewhere. Either they have or don't have enough 4680s. The glass half full would be how great is it that Teslas engineers foresaw the need to allow flexibility and that it is designed into the product..

I think of the structural pack as cells absorbing load and a regular pack as frame absorbing load. So a non-structural pack has more steel in it to provide structure and perhaps more structure outside the pack.

I think that they didn't want to ramp 4680 in Berlin and Austin at the same time, and it was easier for the Fremont team to travel to Austin. With the hold ups on approval at Berlin, that turned out to be the right call.

I now consider that the part of the $25k car Elon might be objecting to is the price.
The fastest way to achieve the mission is hsve high margins fund more factories.

Anyone wanting to make the case that Tesla is cell constrained should use the Semi.
They have clearly said that they are not cell constrained, but the Semi still seems to be low volume.

Most likely there are reasons why the Semi is slow to ramp at present. Perhaps while they are not cell constrained in terms of expanded Model Y production, they don't yet have sufficient cells to make the Semi in volume.

At present making a Semi might mean not msking 10-12 cars.