Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I suspect that Tesla might take over Neuralink as part of the Optimus project, if the brain implant is able to read the arm, legs, torso etc motion of the person carrying the implant. In that case, training Optimus would almost be trivial - implant as many neuralink chips as you have volunteers for, connect the output to Dojo, train the *sugar* out of it, and eventually put the resulting NN weights and biases etc into Optimus. Easy, peasy, 10 trillion Tesla valuation.

Geordi La Forge say WASSUPPP!

 

[Ogre]

It does. But we all know Tesla as a car and energy company would survive and grow without Elon from this point forward. FSD and robots are a wildcard, which Elon is needed for, at least to accelerate the development. Even without Elon, Tesla will grow into 2025 substantially so that it is currently way undervalued.

Exactly.

You could put what Musk said another way: The rest of Tesla runs fine *without* him. It is only the new future projects which need his focus.

 

[kbeckley]

Doesn't this just reinforce the "key man" concerns others had over the weekend?

Elon appears to be saying the company literally can't drive almost any new ideas/products without him personally leading them. Nobody else at Tesla is capable of doing it.

I think him 'having' to drive a program has more to do with him being able to command whatever resources (people or $) he wants more than him personally solving all the issues.

 

[EVDRVN]

Exactly.

You could put what Musk said another way: The rest of Tesla runs fine *without* him. It is only the new future projects which need his focus.

What type of message does this send to employees at any level? At best the phrasing is poor as usual

 

[StealthP3D]

The macro environment scared me last week. Not saying that's over but I really hope for stability in the markets and diplomacy in Ukraine. Self loathing is in my skillset. Regarding last week, I'll compare myself to a wallowing toad.

Are you leveraged, or what, specifically, is causing you to undergo all this fear over normal market gyrations?

 

[Ogre]

What type of message does this send to employees at any level? At best the phrasing is poor as usual

At some point people need to recognize that some people (Musk) speak and act differently and there is no use being thin skinned about it. People who can’t handle Musk’s communication style likely don’t last long at Tesla.

Even new hires have had 10+ years of Twitter to recognize that he isn’t exactly a diplomat.

 

[CLK350]

Quote: "When those with TA know how can predict price action with almost 100% success rate"

Hm.
I have never understood TA.
But if the big players are truly somewhat coordination or colliding in their actions, there are definite patterns. If these patterns can be analyzed, then sure - TA might work and be (very) actionable.
(It would also seem to be surprising and questionable wrt if such coordination is even half-way legal - but, I am not a lawyer, so what do i know...)

I would never know how to decipher these patterns, so this is not for me - I am more into buy and hold - or HODL.

BUT - If what you say in the qoute is correct, then here is an obvious business opportunity:

1. Collect a group of people very good at TA
2. Do predictions for a while a) in public and in a way that is b) tamperproof and c) machine-readable.
3. Collate the predictions for a given timeperiod.
4. Make above data (2c) public for independent analysis.
5. Make an algoritm that can take real-time input from chosen group of TA-specialists
6. Incorporate. Preferably as an entity open for international investments, since many of us TMC'er are not US citizens...
7. Invite us TMC'er to join (and/or others as you see fit)
8. Make a lot of money !

I would spend some money to join. Not a lot, since I am still somewhat sceptical of TA.
But - I would love to be proven wrong, support some fellow TMC'rs good work, and make a bit of money myself

There are, however, some 2nd or 3rd order effect to consider:
What if this new TA-TMC-entity is actually good at 'shadowing' what the big player do. And earn a lot of money doing so. Which again brings spotlight on this practices, which may not be what the big players want or like.

Then, they might get annoyed, and do something utterly contrarian.
That would have the effect of throwing of the scent in case regulators are sniffing around. And it would also serve to harm or even wipe out this new "TA TMC" entity earning lots of money.
Given that the success of the venture hinges on the theory or discovery big players acting in concert, what is to prevent them from also acting in concert in targeting this new business entity?

Actually ... one of the very few friends ( I gave up after 2 1/2) who eventually got some TSLA (and that only because his investment non literate wife TOLD him to put HER funds in TSLA, then realizing maybe he should also do some), forwarded me this weekend his Eliott Wave Trade article b/c it mentioned TSLA as one of the 70 stock setups .. ( see OT topics for details).

Had to encourage him to go all in this time considering the fundamentals, not the TA, even mentioned he could buy the early morning dip to micro trade - and sent him @The Accountant 's key infographics, Can't keep a good stock down and Let's not forget to celebrate Tesla's 2021 Performance

Haven't heard from him yet - sigh

 

[mrmage]

Doesn't this just reinforce the "key man" concerns others had over the weekend?

Elon appears to be saying the company literally can't drive almost any new ideas/products without him personally leading them. Nobody else at Tesla is capable of doing it.

No, it means that projects go faster and better when the most talented and most authoritative person is overseeing them. Anytime a large customer with urgent priorities or projects needed something from us, they'd ask if the key person would personally drive the effort. If it's a enough of priority, that would be the CEO, CTO, or VP Engineering. This is common in tech, but I assume for any other industry as well.

In Tesla's case, Elon is effectively all three. He doesn't *have* to drive the new product, but doing so will increase the likelihood of greatest success. In Elon's mind, anything less than 100% is not an option.

What type of message does this send to employees at any level? At best the phrasing is poor as usual

Edit: It sends a message that this is a kickass project that the top engineers will want to work on. The best devs want to develop, not to be managers. Elon driving your project is exciting because it means you're working on one of the most important projects in the company. All eyes are on your team, and you have a chance to show everyone what you can do. Demotivational is the opposite of what happens when Elon personally takes charge of a new project.

 

[StealthP3D]

How do we distinguish between a deadcat bounce vs the greatest reversal of all time?

It involves a four-letter word. Specifically, you wait.

There is no other way unless you want to play guessing games.

 

[UkNorthampton]

What type of message does this send to employees at any level? At best the phrasing is poor as usual

Trusts people to run important areas, Elon will get stuck in on the most difficult problem. He's not sipping cocktails?

 

[BitJam]

Doesn't this just reinforce the "key man" concerns others had over the weekend?

Elon appears to be saying the company literally can't drive almost any new ideas/products without him personally leading them. Nobody else at Tesla is capable of doing it.

Pretty much the opposite. Elon is free to concentrate on mind-blowing, world-changing new ideas because his team is perfectly capable of driving all the other new ideas which are still far advanced compared to what almost all other companies are doing.

Look at the reaction to the Q4 earnings report. Wall Street wants Elon to personally focus on cars. His team has that covered so he's free to do wacky stuff that Wall Street hates.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I know today is a day worth celebrating, however we must be careful as this may end up being a gigantic bull trap.

We need Arkk to close above 85, Tesla needs to hit above 1k and Qqq needs to hit above 375. If all of these align then we can hit ath. (Note we don't have to close these targets in one day but eventually throughout the green wave).

Reason why we should all be cautious is because everything was extremely over sold so this can be a possible dead cat bounce on a macro level before next leg lower in which Nasdaq can potentially hit pre covid levels (let's just call that the ultimate bottom).

If you overlay the .com bubble price action over arkk, it's scary how similar the patterns are, and according to that pattern this is the dead cat phase.

Hate to be a negative nancy on a very positive day but we need to see some of the above price targets hitting before thinking this is over.

Check video for the overlay.

You seem like a bright guy. I'm surprised that you'd watch the clownish, clickbait youtubers-let alone link them here. Anyone can see patterns in the clouds if they stare long enough. I think caution is warranted here, just not based off of anything coming from that guy.

 

[nativewolf]

Years ago in 2013 IIRC the NTSB held hearings on Lithium-ion batteries in Transportation. Of all the users from nuclear submarines to B787 only one player tracked every single cell. Of course it was Tesla. FWIW, then following day I bought TSLA for the first time.
Now there is deeply imbedded data in seemingly everything Tesla does.
Optimus is in data tracking
As @Artful Dodger has explained a giant advantage of Optimus is in comprehensive parts history, enabling continuous improvement part by part. Obviously costs reduce, but faster and more accurate improvement might actually be higher value.

It looks mundane.
Stay long and prosper!

This is a very good point. Lots of value outside of bots. Lots.

 

[Krugerrand]

Just seen this, Dave getting called out by Elon

https://twitter.com/x/status/1488050840095047688

And he deserved it. Ridiculous that so many people think they have a right to question and judge Elon at every turn. ******* ********!

 

[elasalle]

Just seen this, Dave getting called out by Elon

https://twitter.com/x/status/1488050840095047688

11+ videos over the weekend, even Elon himself cannot keep up


Dear Slim, I wrote you but still ain't callin'
I left my cell, my pager, and my home phone at the bottom
I sent two letters back in autumn, you must not-a got 'em
There probably was a problem at the post office or somethin'

Anyways, I hope you get this man, hit me back,
Just to chat, truly yours, your biggest fan
This is Stan

(Love @DaveT. RESPECT)

 

[2daMoon]

Are the buyers back from lunch yet?

 

[Boomer19]

elon is head of product

inherently, he manages resources for developments in the pipeline. that’s alli think he meant.
he didn’t imply he was more important than anyone else, or that everyone else was useless.

also, i don’t think dave’s underlying agenda to discover “the process” was silly at all (given the fuss many made about those joe justice videos)…so why not try to get it from the source?

i just don’t think there’s much to get all hung up about here. dave was being dave…inquisitive, and elons response wouldn’t even get relegated to the “snippiness” thread were it on TMC.
maybe he simply just wasn’t in the mood, that’s all.

 

[FastCompany]

Don't be fooled by oil company rhetoric!
...

Or the bankers that fund them!

This article from RethinkDisruption is a great read.

JP Morgan’s misinformation on the clean energy disruption – a handy guide

 

[nativewolf]

If

Doesn't this just reinforce the "key man" concerns others had over the weekend?

Elon appears to be saying the company literally can't drive almost any new ideas/products without him personally leading them. Nobody else at Tesla is capable of doing it.

If he is high spectrum as he suggests than this could be a "needs to". Not rational necessarily but he needs to. I bet he didn't drive Octovalve though. It is brilliant but he does not push it even though it is a grand new business opportunity thus I suspect it is not his idea (I don't know this for sure I am only guessing as it is consistent with his behavior- please correct me if I'm wrong). We have some high spectrum friends and a son that is, like Elon, borderline.

 

[kbeckley]

And he deserved it. Ridiculous that so many people think they have a right to question and judge Elon at every turn. ******* ********!

Well everyone has that right. They do not have a right to a response or if they do get a response the right to get a response they are happy with.