Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drumheller]

Dave formulated that question wrong, and he seems to realize that, although not fully stating that it was a completely wrong way of asking the question:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1488205562143723527

Come on Dave, Elon didn’t misunderstand your question, the tweet was definitely worded wrong.

Elon has already taken time to describe his process. I think it was everyday astronaut during a tour of Starbase, if I recall correctly.

Dave is just trying to get more Elon attention now. It's not helpful. And Elon has been polite with him.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think max pain for Friday was $930 this morning, now that volume is trickling into the afternoon I'm sure we'll drift down a bit to protect that. Max pain will probably shift higher throughout the week so I bet we see a lot of volatility. Maybe pops eventually reaching $980 or so, but then an eventual drift/push down to a $950 close that's just below max pain.

Sound good to everyone? Alright hit the showers, week's over.

 

[FS_FRA]

I think max pain for Friday was $930 this morning, now that volume is trickling into the afternoon I'm sure we'll drift down a bit to protect that. Max pain will probably shift higher throughout the week so I bet we see a lot of volatility. Maybe pops eventually reaching $980 or so, but then an eventual drift/push down to a $950 close that's just below max pain.

Sound good to everyone? Alright hit the showers, week's over.

Now $920 for Friday....

Those 3 call walls at 900 - 950 - 1000 are going to be interesting...

 

[WADan]

I'm really embarrassed for Dave for those questions he asked (regardless of whether Elon responded or not). They really show a lack of understanding about how new initiatives happen in a company like Tesla. The same could be said for continuing initiatives. It's a huge job that is about as nebulous as they come.

When Elon said he "drives" almost all programs at Tesla, I thought it was obvious that he was saying he is the one that plants the seed, waters it, etc. Not that it was a formal responsibility with hours and assigned tasks. Elon literally makes almost every new initiative happen. Without direction, goals and guidance, nothing is going to happen. Elon is like the puppet master above trying to get all the puppets below to move in the right directions at the right times. And he's a master at it. His results do not lie.

Dave in general is a level headed guy, but in the last few days he came out with so many short videos in which he tried to parse every word of EM. I like Dave as one of a few YTs that I still view (depending on the topics), and before this I was going to put a comment in one of his videos to say it’s time to slow down and take a breath.
Most of the YTs just regurgitate things without any original content to get clicks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Pretty meh action over the past hour or so. A lot of the other stocks in my watchlist are up more % wise than TSLA.

Yeah, none of which would be multi-hundred billion dollar Megacap stocks. Here's the Top10 in the S&P 500 index:

Only NVDA is close at +4.92% vs the TSLA gain of +9.47% intraday (13:20 ET)

And importantly, the intraday high for TSLA is now within 1 dollar of the Opening SP on 'Black Thursday'.

No conclusions are warranted as yet regarding repeating any curve-riding.

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

It does. But we all know Tesla as a car and energy company would survive and grow without Elon from this point forward. FSD and robots are a wildcard, which Elon is needed for, at least to accelerate the development. Even without Elon, Tesla will grow into 2025 substantially so that it is currently way undervalued.

Well put. There is no doubt TSLA share price would take a big hit in the shorter term if Elon was no more. And I think we could not expect the same kind of long-term growth rate without him (except in the unlikely event that someone equally talented magically appeared).

And risks of this sort are precisely why I don't want to see TSLA bid up to nosebleed levels (even though I think it's worth quite a bit more than $1200 right now). Because if the price is not bid up to the limit, then the risk of some bad things happening are already partially built in. But people who worry about every little bad thing that could possibly go wrong are not the people who get the lions share of the gains. They never have been. An investor must look at the big picture.

Those with lower risk tolerance will, on average, have lower gains. I've done well by always playing with money I was willing to lose (while simultaneously- making selections that would filter out the most common types of losses from happening). It's a fine line balancing risk/reward and risk tolerance but the loss of Elon, as horrific as that thought may be, is primarily a substantial long-term risk only if Tesla was bid up much higher than it is today.

 

[MABMAB]

The problem wit the YT parasites, is there is only so much flesh to feed on. New TSLA info is rarely brought forth, there can't possibly be enough to put out a regular show. And yet they do, but absent anything of substance. Conjecture and opinion sure. Numbers, thinking, rehash a plenty. So then they turn to interviewing each other, much in the way news shows will report on news people, NOT NEWS. YT is becoming the TMZ national enquirer modern equivalent with regards to Muck Inc. YTers are not in the business of helping you or me, they are in the entertainment business.

Flesh feeders.

 

[Krugerrand]

I just spent 3 days reading about how Elon shouldn’t be doing and saying most of the stuff that he did and said on the ER call and now I’ll probably spend 3 days reading about how we’re all entitled to have Elon explain in minute detail about those things he shouldn’t do or say.

Hypocrites.

As investors/shareholders we are entitled by law to know certain financial metrics and those things that directly relate to the bottom line along with *some* inner workings - like who sits on the board. That is all. We are not entitled to know all the rest, despite Elon’s openness.

We are not entitled to know who’s heading up projects or even the time frame or even if there’s new projects. And we’re certainly not entitled to know Elon’s role in such.

Be thankful that Elon is as open and honest as he is, but don’t think for a second you’re entitlement britches should be any bigger than your underwear.

 

[StealthP3D]

It sends a message that this is a kickass project that the top engineers will want to work on. The best devs want to develop, not to be managers. Elon driving your project is exciting because it means you're working on one of the most important projects in the company. All eyes are on your team, and you have a chance to show everyone what you can do. Demotivational is the opposite of what happens when Elon personally takes charge of a new project.

Agreed. Elon's language was well chosen to recruit new talent, one of Tesla's biggest gating functions, a lack of available talent. Elon is constantly working, constantly trying to guide all his companies to the most successful possible future.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It is completely normal and typical for a CEO to be more heavily involved and driving the new and innovative projects in the company. I view it as a negative for a company when that is not the case.

Whatdayamean? I head that Mary Barry took a Cruize in San Francisco last week. For the first time, ever. /s

Meanwhile, Elon's testing Alpha-builds of FSD v11 on his own personal Tesla.

Night vs. Day.

 

[jbcarioca]

Or the bankers that fund them!

This article from RethinkDisruption is a great read.

JP Morgan’s misinformation on the clean energy disruption – a handy guide
View attachment 762611

Actually the comment may have been a bit redundant.
The Chase Manhattan Bank, precursor of JPMorganChase had as Chaairman David Rockefeller. while their rival at the time, Citibank, was known as The Rockefeller Bank. Exxon, Texaco, JPMorganChase, Citicorp and many others were all the legacy of John D Rockefeller. There si no conceivable way any of those entities can take positions that will conflict with their own perceived self-interest. David R and his brothers tried, but failed, to adopt more moderate tones.

Tesla does act as the poster child of progress that signifies revolution. No matter individual views, they cannot suddenly change their core values.
We need to learn to ignore them. They cannot change.

 

[Dutchie]

Yes Dave Lee is great. All kinds of great content on Youtube by Dave, he is a massive plus to the Tesla community

Same re. Rob Mauer, Stephen Mark Ryan, Now You Know and Warren Redlich.

Most of them get a little ahead of themselves sometimes which is only normal. At Now You Know they were convinced that Tesla were going to turn every Tesla into a virtual powerplant last year, and Warren Redlich was going on and on about the $25k car. Again, its normal, a bit of speculation drives views and its fun to think about this stuff anyway. At the end of the day, great investors are slightly better at predicting the future than bad investors.

Although Solving the Money problem can be pretty repetitive, I cant remember any inaccuracies or spurious speculation so far, and Rob Mauer almost never speculates, all you get there are facts and estimations are purely data drvien.

I enjoy all of them, and they help me form my own opinions.

Btw, good to see TSLA up 10% today! I bought heavily between $790 and $900! Partly due to the confidence the YouTubers give me Although I am worried about the Echo Chamber sometimes, even more reason for Dave to question Elon from time-to-time

You forget Dr. Know it all. Like his videos. Explains the technical side veery clearly.

 

[snellenr]

An interesting essay today by Mark Judge about the willingness of people to put up with the intensity of difficult, brilliant leaders.

'Whiplash' and what the Federalist got wrong about masculinity

 

[H Mak]

I'm here to see us all talk about how smart we are on the up days and commiserate and share our misery on the down days.

The down days are not for being miserable but for buying more shares. I'm serious.


If I've got time later I'll post a nice little down day story

 

[larmor]

I just spent 3 days reading about how Elon shouldn’t be doing and saying most of the stuff that he did and said on the ER call and now I’ll probably spend 3 days reading about how we’re all entitled to have Elon explain in minute detail about those things he shouldn’t do or say.

Hypocrites.

As investors/shareholders we are entitled by law to know certain financial metrics and those things that directly relate to the bottom line along with *some* inner workings - like who sits on the board. That is all. We are not entitled to know all the rest, despite Elon’s openness.

We are not entitled to know who’s heading up projects or even the time frame or even if there’s new projects. And we’re certainly not entitled to know Elon’s role in such.

Be thankful that Elon is as open and honest as he is, but don’t think for a second you’re entitlement britches should be any bigger than your underwear.

His presence on the call was for future products and growth. What I heard was that FSD with software has a staggering valuation when it is used-- not now, not 2 days from now, not 2 weeks from now-- some time in the future. That is why he came onto reiterate future products. The bot was curious, but he did mention that it will eclipse the car business. What we have been told about cars that they are extremely hard to make, and to make a profit from cars. They have the pieces to make the bot and there is a huge labor shortage-- and do we really want to make our neighbors work at such poor pay so we can get our thneed by this afternoon?

Who cares how the bot comes, it is a future product.

 

[mongo]

Now $920 for Friday....

View attachment 762633

Those 3 call walls at 900 - 950 - 1000 are going to be interesting...

Volume does not equal open interest.
(Similar to how share volume does not equal float).
People swing day trade options.
7:00 am tomorrow will reveal the net change.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Whatdayamean? I head that Mary Barry took a Cruize in San Francisco last week. For the first time, ever. /s

Being in the UK, I read your post and thought of this:

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

The problem wit the YT parasites, is there is only so much flesh to feed on. New TSLA info is rarely brought forth, there can't possibly be enough to put out a regular show. And yet they do, but absent anything of substance. Conjecture and opinion sure. Numbers, thinking, rehash a plenty. So then they turn to interviewing each other, much in the way news shows will report on news people, NOT NEWS. YT is becoming the TMZ national enquirer modern equivalent with regards to Muck Inc. YTers are not in the business of helping you or me, they are in the entertainment business.

Flesh feeders.

I get your point, but personally I like many of Dave's Tesla videos.
Even the speculative ones. In fact many of the recent ones I find highly interesting.
But ... to each his own.

Also the spoken word can sometimes convey a message better than text - it varies.

I find your sweeping criticism of youtubers a bit harsh. For sure, some are a bit ... much. But we have colorful persons here too, right?
I find that, as far as I can see, most of the youtubers I watch are just trying to make sense of whatever part of the world the care most about. Sure, they also try to make a dime in the process - fine.

I cannot fault them for trying to find meaning and sense in the world.
So do I. I have just chosen a different platform/community/media: TMC.

 

[Rarity]

Nobody supports the idea that humanoid robots are around the corner. NOBODY. I am not arguing on the NN side of things. I am sure on the synthesis of mechanical & NN side of things. The thing that makes a human so neat just from a science pov. So lets look at it from an investor POV. Could you put any value today?

The goal of the society that promotes humanoid robotics is to be there by 2040 and to have robots play world class soccer by 2050. Literally not a single researcher on the planet thinks it will be there by 202X. None. It's not that I had to do much searching to confirm that since I last looked at it all things have continued at the same pace they had been, which is good solid progress, year by year with thousands of researchers across the world contributing. Korea to Japan to Germany to USA. I do not see Tesla having any special competency and as an investor Eyes Wide Open. A lot of people have been working on this for decades. The fundamental science and research is not held by tesla, it was not discovered by tesla and Tesla won't own any specific competency there. I freely admit I don't know much about a lot and robotics is one and yet even I know that the key breakthroughs have not happened. You'd see it in Science magazine if a prototype was able to do so. This is like IBM backed project winning a chess and then a go match; anybody in the world with a brain knew it had happened. That meant that AI was becoming hot, that economic activity in that field would increase and 10 years after you would expect to see some real life implications. TA DA. Once you see a humanoid able to do something in Science magazine (or whatever equivalent scientific journal) it is going to be several years of heated funding on practical VC type work. Tesla is announcing product without the supporting relevant discoveries.

Bot is a neat project but it bears no resemblance to Tesla starting EVs where the Tesla team started exactly where I started but a year earlier and with more money. They started looking at the work done by the group in CA and saying..hey, that's going to change the world. I saw it, at least 4 other groups saw it and combined with the work done by the RMI it was clear that technology existed that was going to enable a practical EV. We all knew it could change the world with some hard work. 2 groups combined and that became Tesla. Humanoid robotics have nothing in common, there is no breakthrough lightbulb going off moment where some discovery is making hands and joint movements and tactile senses trivial. The NN is not the holdup here. They can't physically construct a hand that today can perform even a subset of the task. They can barely model it.

So walk it back. It's not that 1 researcher agrees with me. It is that they all do and I can say that after only an hours worth of reading literature. I'm trying to be helpful by reducing the froth being generated from easily misconstrued comments by EM. EMs comments on this are dangerous if anyone is using those to justify any investment hypothesis with anything other than a decades long view and I mean HODL for 20-40 years. As the son of stockbrokers and the grandson of stockbrokers and the brother of stockbrokers I can tell you how rare that is. Again, nothing indicates Tesla has any particular competency in this space. I'll archive this post and if I'm alive in 2030 we can circle back with each other and see what's happened. In the meantime. Eyes wide open. Go read the literature on the field and go to the next humanoid conference and see how you feel after talking it through with hundreds of the best researchers in the field. If you are changing your hypothesis or exhorting others to do the same based on some value being attached to Bots than you are engaging in speculation.

The investment hypothesis to me is unchanged: EVs and Energy. Those are the competencies and they are all centered around batteries. To whit, to understand Tesla's value is to understand batteries. They are not even trying to take octovalve into HVAC. FSD was a reaction to a Waymo and the realization that 80% was easy and Waymo maybe a threat (smart realization) and a bit of hubris because he does not really get software and how hard this last bit is going to be. Teslas do not even have the hardware yet to get to L4, it's going to be an upgrade to the computers (they are maxed out and there is no redundancy) and (based on posters that seem credible) likely 2 more cameras. It's years away to L4/5. The new computer chips will likely require that the Samsung Fab is finished and working properly, 2-3 years (spitball)? Then 1 year to get to scale so 4 years on hardware? A year or 2 more on software? So 5-6 years til a trial L4/5 is my guess than a geofenced trail and that will be the highlight of the robotaxi valuation to me. That's for something that is "1 year away" and no I am not an expert on that at all. Not at all. I'm just spitballing. it's why I discount all the robotaxi valuation, it is years out at best and if you do a DCF analysis on revenues from years out with uncertainty etc than you'd be very careful of putting value on it. FSD when it comes will be worth something and Tesla is a leader today- that's fine for me. On the robotics side of things I can't even spitball so it is beyond 2030. Likely 2040. I can tell you with some certainty what a white oak will look like if we plant it today and come back in 2040. I'm used to making plans for forest that will be thriving long after I am dead. Most people don't invest with that same mentality.

While I appreciate reducing a bit of froth, this worldview baffles me.

One of Tesla's core competencies is robotics at scale. Its fleet comprises more than a million robots in a car body doing modestly useful things, now growing at the rate of about 1.2 million robots a year. Tesla gathers select information from the fleet and turns the crank on the neural nets every week or two, increasing a bit the utility and value of the entire fleet with most iterations.

The human body is a wonder to behold. Its killer feature is that it holds a computer that does both inference and learning in a 20-watt envelope. Tesla does not have godly powers, so its approach needs to be much more down-to-earth. Currently, learning is extremely compute-intensive. So Tesla offloads learning to a compute cluster. Its robots have standard body dimensions and features such that centralized learning is applicable to the individual.

The FSD inference computer has been made with specifications of wattage, size, cooling, sensors, and nerves suitable to be installed in a car body that drives. Tesla is manufacturing this computer at the rate of about 1.5 million copies a year and growing, so the marginal cost for each unit in dollars and engineering/management focus is pretty cheap all considered. It is on a 3 or 4-year hardware iteration cycle, with the next hardware version landing sometime this year or early next.

Nobody in industry and academia has taken Tesla's approach. Nobody is within three orders of magnitude of robot units that Tesla ships, leaving aside Roomba. Nobody has focused almost solely on visual light wavelengths. Nobody has a custom inference computer in a 70-watt envelope. What is difficult for others may be easy for Tesla and what is difficult for Tesla may be easy for some others.

It is easy for Tesla to reach into its parts bin for a few thousand FSD computers to put into humanoid robots. I expect Tesla to do so. However, the utility of the robot will be very limited in the short term. 70 watts is lot for a humanoid body to manage, so Tesla may wish to idle half the board and not provide redundant operation. No need for perfection right now. Best to get a minimal viable product up and running and then iterate. One eyeball, one finger, wheels instead of legs, etc., as needed.

Each person has to to develop their own valuation philosophy, but mine includes the observation that Tesla is a bit of an incubator with some shared elements. Startups cannot be valued in the same manner as mature companies. But they do have value, sometimes very large, even with all of the discounting. Indeed, most of the value of any company growing quickly is in year 10+. Yes, it's hard to value. No, there are no excuses for not including it in your overall valuation.

 

[Boomer19]

I get your point, but personally I like many of Dave's Tesla videos.
Even the speculative ones. In fact many of the recent ones I find highly interesting.
But ... to each his own.

Also the spoken word can sometimes convey a message better than text - it varies.

I find your sweeping criticism of youtubers a bit harsh. For sure, some are a bit ... much. But we have colorful persons here too, right?
I find that, as far as I can see, most of the youtubers I watch are just trying to make sense of whatever part of the world the care most about. Sure, they also try to make a dime in the process - fine.

I cannot fault them for trying to find meaning and sense in the world.
So do I. I have just chosen a different platform/community/media: TMC.

agreed. there are some complete “tools” within the tesla cottage industry. dave isn’t one of them. he’s a genuinely nice guy (no i haven’t met him, but we have mutual friend).

that said, and being one of the colorful ones, i encourage more infighting, it usualy means the stock has more room to run!!! fire away!