Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[adiggs]

Not exactly. The S caused many people to purchase it who would never have considered a car in that price range. I'm pretty sure the Hummer won't.

I know that the former is true. Heck I moved up from a $10k (new, 1991) car to a Roadster, on my way to a Model X.

We're guessing at the Hummer, though I think that's more true than not. Partly because I don't think its all that great of a vehicle, but also because there is at least one alternative that is reasonably close by - Model X. Similar price and at least some towing ability. There isn't the same chasm as when Model S became available - one really awesome electric vehicle and nothing else. Model S got people that wanted capable electric and didn't want a sedan - its just that was the only choice available at all.


This will be true for any new EV that comes along. Model S, as the first seriously capable EV (>200 mile range is the first component of my definition), was able to get buyers from all price levels and all body styles. There won't ever be another car with that circumstance.

 

[adiggs]

It's a grotesque parody of an EV--uniquely American in its massive bloat. Even Arnold would (I hope) turn away from it.

Just like its fossil fuel burning inspiration!

For those that want that, I hope they get their uniquely American solution in its massive bloat in the EV variant.

 

[RobDickinson]

Arnie did convert an OG hummer to electric way back. No idea on stats of that I think he still has it?

Obviously JRE is doing his own military hummer too.

 

[RobDickinson]

Why all the hatred for the Hummer EV???

Sure it’s inefficient, but it is still 100% electric and compared to a regular Hummer is an incredibly good vehicle for the environment.

Because its a massive waste of resources for what will mostly be a show pony.

 

[StealthP3D]

Newer TMC members may be surprised that Elon was somewhat unpopular on this board in the early years of Tesla. It was before my time on TMC, but you can find old posts very supportive of Martin Eberhard and disparaging Elon during the conflict at that time. I don't think Elon started to get really popular here until the Model S came out and the stock started taking off.

Thanks for the historical perspective on Tesla's early days.

I would suggest that some investors are wrong a lot and you can tell who they are by looking back at what they said and see how well it lined up with reality. Eberhard seems like a nice guy with his heart in the right place but a terrible businessman. I would suggest any investor who preferred him over Elon Musk cannot see the big picture very well. It's not at all unusual for most investors to not be able to see what is most important to the success or failure of a venture. What it takes is someone who thinks correctly, not the most likeable guy or the person most eloquent with words. And an investor that is inflexible about changing his/her mind when presented with actual performance is probably not a very good investor.

I like engineer CEO's. One of my favorites was Irwin Jacobs of Qualcomm. He was the opposite of flashy and very down to earth but had real vision and persistence.

Some people have it, and some don't. That's my concern with Rivian, their CEO is unproven. In a recent video with Munro I was not too impressed. Again, he seems like a very nice person with his heart in the right place but I was somewhat taken aback with his focus on small inconsequential features of the Rivian, particularly the flashlight in the door, Sentry Mode (or whatever they call it) and the ski rack system/tailgate. These are not the qualities of the car that will result in the success or failure of Rivian, it will be the ability to source and manufacture the vehicle at favorable volumes and price points. It will be the efficiency of the organization he creates and their ability to react to things on the ground before they happen. I hope it works out but I can't help but think that company would better off with more of a big picture visionary.

Of course it's possible Rivian survives and thrives based simply on being at the right place in the right time and being better than legacy auto. But I don't bet on things like that. I need more certainty before I'm willing to place my bet. That's why I didn't buy significant shares in TSLA until 2019 after Elon and team had proven themselves to me.

 

[Cattledog]

It will be the efficiency of the organization he creates and their ability to react to things on the ground before they happen. I hope it works out but I can't help but think that company would better off with more of a big picture visionary.

My experience with them is that these values are not instilled in the company, and communication of the values/priorities is also not present.

 

[nativewolf]

Because its a massive waste of resources for what will mostly be a show pony.

It is, this is true. At the same time it is basically going to be GM's first real EV and it might help if you look at it like the first Roadster or the first S models. Show ponies serve a purpose. I'd never buy one. GM needs one. In this regard it is no different than the Porsche Toycan. Also a meaningless show pony for VW. But it proved to everyone at VW that you could make an EV that was popular and FAST. I understand your dislike but please understand that this is critical, every OEM needs to make the showpony. Give GM credit that they are ahead of Toyota and Honda and Mitsui. Basically GM is ahead of Japan Inc. BMW didn't make a show pony, neither did Nissan. Both appear doomed. Tesla did, Posche (VW) did, Ford did (Lightening). Just trying to help you quell the inner disgust at an EV Hummer. I share the same feeling but...the mission requires that the OEMs move, fast.

 

[Knightshade]

NASDAQ has published TSLA Short Interest data. Total SI was up about 1.6M shares between Jan 14 - 31, 2022. This corresponds strongly with the post-earnings slump, which is now confirmed as short-selling induced, artificial drop.

Not sure "confirmed" is the right word there.

Average daily volume over the same reported period was over 34 million shares. Per day.

You think an extra 1.6 million total shares sold short, and those spread over a 2 week period, is "the" cause of a large drop in share price- at the same time macro saw significant dips too?

 

[RobDickinson]

First real EV since the Bolt, the other bolt, the EV1 etc? How many bites at that cherry do they get?

 

[nativewolf]

First real EV since the Bolt, the other bolt, the EV1 etc? How many bites at that cherry do they get?

I view the Leaf and Bolt/volt as just compliance cars engineered to garner credits and avoid paying Tesla or penalties. It's (sadly) the first real EV that has any prestige behind it. High end, lux model that will be profitable if GM can sell them and I guess today they can sell them. I know I know...just cough and look the other way.

 

[PeterJA]

...I do not like Musk as a person. I'll leave it at that....

Elon Musk makes mistakes. He loses his temper (rarely), underestimates timelines (less rarely), opines publicly on subjects outside his expertise (fairly rarely), and eats junk food (according to Ashlee Vance's biography).

But there is one thing this person doesn't do, in my experience. He doesn't publicly lie. I can't speak about his private integrity, because I have no experience with that. I have only watched hundreds of hours of his public appearances, and read his blogs, leaked emails, and tweets for years. I have found they contrast sharply with the dishonesty of most public figures.

So when folks say "I don't like Elon Musk as a person," I have to conclude one or more of the following:

1) They have believed parts of the relentless, global, billion-dollar disinformation campaign that rages 24/7 against Elon and his companies that threaten multi-trillion-dollar industries.

2) They don't value integrity in a person, or don't value it more than avoiding Elon's mistakes.

3) They have some immature reason for their dislike, such as envy, insecurity, or perceived inferiority.

I feel a little sorry for such folks. I'll leave it at that.

 

[MC3OZ]

Thanks for the historical perspective on Tesla's early days.

I would suggest that some investors are wrong a lot and you can tell who they are by looking back at what they said and see how well it lined up with reality. Eberhard seems like a nice guy with his heart in the right place but a terrible businessman. I would suggest any investor who preferred him over Elon Musk cannot see the big picture very well. It's not at all unusual for most investors to not be able to see what is most important to the success or failure of a venture. What it takes is someone who thinks correctly, not the most likeable guy or the person most eloquent with words. And an investor that is inflexible about changing his/her mind when presented with actual performance is probably not a very good investor.

I like engineer CEO's. One of my favorites was Irwin Jacobs of Qualcomm. He was the opposite of flashy and very down to earth but had real vision and persistence.

Some people have it, and some don't. That's my concern with Rivian, their CEO is unproven. In a recent video with Munro I was not too impressed. Again, he seems like a very nice person with his heart in the right place but I was somewhat taken aback with his focus on small inconsequential features of the Rivian, particularly the flashlight in the door, Sentry Mode (or whatever they call it) and the ski rack system/tailgate. These are not the qualities of the car that will result in the success or failure of Rivian, it will be the ability to source and manufacture the vehicle at favorable volumes and price points. It will be the efficiency of the organization he creates and their ability to react to things on the ground before they happen. I hope it works out but I can't help but think that company would better off with more of a big picture visionary.

Of course it's possible Rivian survives and thrives based simply on being at the right place in the right time and being better than legacy auto. But I don't bet on things like that. I need more certainty before I'm willing to place my bet. That's why I didn't buy significant shares in TSLA until 2019 after Elon and team had proven themselves to me.

I saw the same video, and I think Rivian is going ok.

What we can see as flashy gimmicks, is just them trying to build a brand image, and carve out niche.

The software and build quality seems OK, it doesn't have much that a Tesla doesn't have, in fact many areas were virtually copied. But IMO it seems well engineered.

They might not be making money on this version, but they are backed by Amazon, at worst they are another alternative for people who don't want to buy a Tesla.

A reasonable criticism is that it took them a long time to get to this point, and they abandoned at least one previously planned vehicle.
So it seems their strong point is attention to detail, and their weak point is taking too long to get things done.

So I think RJ Scaringe, is a smart guy and a fairly good engineer with a good knowledge of the product, and perhaps in another time in another product category, his company could have climbed to the top of tree. They may carve out a niche, a solid brand image and be reasonably successful, at least successful enough to survive.

If they needed a different CEO, then they needed that CEO 10 years ago, and getting the R1T to market 3 years earlier, would have made a big difference.
But where they are now, changing leader is probably a bad idea, they are better off following their game plan.

 

[RobDickinson]

I view the Leaf and Bolt/volt as just compliance cars engineered to garner credits and avoid paying Tesla or penalties. It's (sadly) the first real EV that has any prestige behind it. High end, lux model that will be profitable if GM can sell them and I guess today they can sell them. I know I know...just cough and look the other way.

You can view it whichever way you like but you cant tell me a company thats already blown way through its 200k USA tax subsidy is only now releasing its first ev.

 

[Knightshade]

I view the Leaf and Bolt/volt as just compliance cars engineered to garner credits and avoid paying Tesla or penalties.

The leaf was the best selling EV in the world in total sales from 2010 until early 2020. A decade of being in the lead overall.

Not sure how you call it a compliance car to avoid buying Tesla credits, especially when it launches years before Tesla had any significant number to sell.

That said- Nissan 1000% dropped the ball in having decent follow-ups ready.





Likewise the bolt, for all its flaws, sold hundreds of thousands of units nationwide.



A compliance car is sold in far lower numbers, usually a conversion not a ground-up vehicle, and only in a very few states with specific, stricter, rules....(most commonly CA and OR) Chevy DID have one for a few years- the Spark EV sold only in like 3 US states and they only sold a few thousands total over the years it was on sale. Other examples include junk like the Honda Fit EV, the Focus Electric, and the original Fiat 500e.

 

[Skipdd]

Elon Musk makes mistakes. He loses his temper (rarely), underestimates timelines (less rarely), opines publicly on subjects outside his expertise (fairly rarely), and eats junk food (according to Ashlee Vance's biography).

But there is one thing this person doesn't do, in my experience. He doesn't publicly lie. I can't speak about his private integrity, because I have no experience with that. I have only watched hundreds of hours of his public appearances, and read his blogs, leaked emails, and tweets for years. I have found they contrast sharply with the dishonesty of most public figures.

So when folks say "I don't like Elon Musk as a person," I have to conclude one or more of the following:

1) They have believed parts of the relentless, global, billion-dollar disinformation campaign that rages 24/7 against Elon and his companies that threaten multi-trillion-dollar industries.

2) They don't value integrity in a person, or don't value it more than avoiding Elon's mistakes.

3) They have some immature reason for their dislike, such as envy, insecurity, or perceived inferiority.

I feel a little sorry for such folks. I'll leave it at that.

I have 2 problems with what you said:

1. This is an investors’ forum. Despite his feelings about the CEO, he remains an active investor (owning both stock and product). He articulated a coherent investment strategy that works for him. It was useful to me to see what his considerations were, and then read others comments about the pros and cons of that strategy
2. Wrt his opinion of Elon, you created 3 categories that anyone must fall into who says they don’t like Elon, implying he falls into one of them. And then added a little salt onto that. Maybe there is another reason that falls outside your categories?

Personally I like what Elon is doing, but that is not the point..

 

[EVDRVN]

Why all the hatred for the Hummer EV???

Sure it’s inefficient, but it is still 100% electric and compared to a regular Hummer is an incredibly good vehicle for the environment.

I wouldn’t buy one of course, but we should be cheering on a revamp of any horrendous gas-guzzler into a pure EV model.

Don't get in a collision with one or you will change your mind fast.

 

[Thekiwi]

Don't get in a collision with one or you will change your mind fast.

sure. just like I wouldn't want a collision with any large heavy vehicle. Does that mean we shouldn't want Tesla to release the semi either, because it would total other vehicles in a crash?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Elon Musk makes mistakes. He loses his temper (rarely), underestimates timelines (less rarely), opines publicly on subjects outside his expertise (fairly rarely), and eats junk food (according to Ashlee Vance's biography).

But there is one thing this person doesn't do, in my experience. He doesn't publicly lie. I can't speak about his private integrity, because I have no experience with that. I have only watched hundreds of hours of his public appearances, and read his blogs, leaked emails, and tweets for years. I have found they contrast sharply with the dishonesty of most public figures.

So when folks say "I don't like Elon Musk as a person," I have to conclude one or more of the following:

1) They have believed parts of the relentless, global, billion-dollar disinformation campaign that rages 24/7 against Elon and his companies that threaten multi-trillion-dollar industries.

2) They don't value integrity in a person, or don't value it more than avoiding Elon's mistakes.

3) They have some immature reason for their dislike, such as envy, insecurity, or perceived inferiority.

I feel a little sorry for such folks. I'll leave it at that.

A little perspective.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494065800482902030

 

[OrthoSurg]

I think we've all worked long hours, and under less than ideal situations, at one time or another during our lives. And most of us didn't become millionaires in the process.

I think what most people have a hard time visualizing (along with exponential growth), is that a moment in time is not forever. If you look at what the lifestyle of doctor residency is, or first or second year wall street bankers, you'll find it's common to literally work almost every waking second. That doesn't mean that's the way it'll be for their whole life...

Just spent the 2 last weeks of doing absolutely nothing but taking care of my kids then had a series of calls hat I just finished after 5 days of 20 people falling on ice and worked 70 hours in 5 days . My job is so unstable, it is like the current stock market. Its different from my internship when I was used to work between 80 and 120 hours a week constantly for 5 years. I would have not sustained that workload for more than 10 years. Even if the annual paycheck is in the 7 digits when you are on call more than 100 days a year, spending 16-20 hours during these days working nonstop is gratifying but not sustainable to thrive as a good husband, father and citizen. I was always jealous of my wife’s job as an engineer who started in the 5 digits but worked 35 hours a week and had descend workload and had time to pee, drink and eat during her day, which is never my case when I have to go through a 80 patients clinics, while fixing 4 fractures in the trauma room, go see the 6 new fractures at the ED, round 15 patients at the ward and answers 30 outside calls for consultations during the day. All that finishing at 2 AM after the 6 trauma cases during the evening and early night. These days you get home, go to sleep after your wife, wake up before her and already gone before she wakes up, rinse and repeat 5 times. It is important as a resident that you go through this workload because you will have to tolerate it some days on your life. Sometimes 5 days straight, sometimes 14 days while your colleagues are on vacation of sometimes 21 days when you go in other centres too. Would someone tolerate so much punishment for a low income, I don’t think so. The bright and hard working young engineers at Tesla need to think their are truly changing the world and love their work so much their are wired In and totally in the zone while they work and probably don’t even see their days go by. Which is totally he case when someone loves his job. I just don’t like when someone’s effort profits are being collected by someone else, that is not a fair game to leverage out of proportion from the work of others. You should always be paid proportionally to the extra value your work brings to the organization. Consultation work is always more advantageous for someone who can deliver the same value twice as fast as someone else. The more you work, the faster you get and the more efficient you become. I think it is important for employees to have incentives to push themselves beyond and harvest part of the reward. These are what I consider the most fulfilling jobs ever.

I have 2 problems with what you said:

1. This is an investors’ forum. Despite his feelings about the CEO, he remains an active investor (owning both stock and product). He articulated a coherent investment strategy that works for him. It was useful to me to see what his considerations were, and then read others comments about the pros and cons of that strategy
2. Wrt his opinion of Elon, you created 3 categories that anyone must fall into who says they don’t like Elon, implying he falls into one of them. And then added a little salt onto that. Maybe there is another reason that falls outside your categories?

Personally I like what Elon is doing, but that is not the point..

I think it is very difficult to judge Elon from everything we read online. We are building our perception of Elon from the perception others have developed working with him and he must be extremely demanding but if you are as hard working as he is, it must be extremely rewarding to work for him in one of his companies toward a common goal. I always take the comments from people who got fired from Tesla with a grain of salt. Their opinion might be biased from divergent views our situation that turned sour. It is always difficult to make an objective opinion of someone through the subjective opinions of others experiences. Sorry for this long brick post, I’m going to sleep.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Eberhard seems like a nice guy with his heart in the right place but a terrible businessman. I would suggest any investor who preferred him over Elon Musk cannot see the big picture very well.

I don't think that Elon called Eberhard the "worst person" he's ever worked with because Eberhard was a terrible businessman. The stuff Elon described fell more in the lying, cheating, and stealing category.