Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

The leaf was the best selling EV in the world in total sales from 2010 until early 2020. A decade of being in the lead overall.

Not sure how you call it a compliance car to avoid buying Tesla credits, especially when it launches years before Tesla had any significant number to sell.

That said- Nissan 1000% dropped the ball in having decent follow-ups ready.





Likewise the bolt, for all its flaws, sold hundreds of thousands of units nationwide.



A compliance car is sold in far lower numbers, usually a conversion not a ground-up vehicle, and only in a very few states with specific, stricter, rules....(most commonly CA and OR) Chevy DID have one for a few years- the Spark EV sold only in like 3 US states and they only sold a few thousands total over the years it was on sale. Other examples include junk like the Honda Fit EV, the Focus Electric, and the original Fiat 500e.

Yes...seems odd and maybe compliance is not quite right: it was a one off engineering project that created lots of credits and yet had no continuity- a speck in a giant cog. In fact it seemed like something Ghosen might have liked and Nissan was determined to kill it, or Renault or both. No idea. I do know that Nissan/Renault did not have to buy credits or penalties from anyone in the world. In the last few years that value (cost avoidance) has soared. That might seem like nothing but doing business in CA was expensive without it, then followed by the EU and now several other states and even in China I think. It could even be that Nissan was selling credits. One off engineering projects that keep fines away are, to me, compliance cars. However, you may consider otherwise. Many companies preferred to pay the fines instead of building the cars. Others like Ford became clients of Tesla. In all the accounting discussions the value these OEMs receive from not funding Tesla is significant and the penalties everyone paid Tesla helped keep Tesla going. Further support for calling it a compliance car is that the Bolt Volt was clearly a compliance car and yet exhausted GM's access to tax credits something the Leaf has yet to do in the USA. Furthermore, many years the Leafs were being sold in CA and shipped right out to the east coast. They were nearly free ($90 /month lease payments). Literally free if you factored in gas savings. Yeah after consideration I would say Leaf was a compliance car. I'm not looking but I also bet it was primarily sold in the USA to start (not in Japan to any extent or China or EU) and CA in particular which would support it being a compliance car.

 

[EVDRVN]

sure. just like I wouldn't want a collision with any large heavy vehicle. Does that mean we shouldn't want Tesla to release the semi either, because it would total other vehicles in a crash?

Not the point but hey, gas guzzlers or electric guzzlers sounds great. The electric Hummer is a joke to be called green and should not be compared to itself is really the point.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon Musk makes mistakes. He loses his temper (rarely), underestimates timelines (less rarely), opines publicly on subjects outside his expertise (fairly rarely), and eats junk food (according to Ashlee Vance's biography).

But there is one thing this person doesn't do, in my experience. He doesn't publicly lie. I can't speak about his private integrity, because I have no experience with that. I have only watched hundreds of hours of his public appearances, and read his blogs, leaked emails, and tweets for years. I have found they contrast sharply with the dishonesty of most public figures.

So when folks say "I don't like Elon Musk as a person," I have to conclude one or more of the following:

1) They have believed parts of the relentless, global, billion-dollar disinformation campaign that rages 24/7 against Elon and his companies that threaten multi-trillion-dollar industries.

2) They don't value integrity in a person, or don't value it more than avoiding Elon's mistakes.

3) They have some immature reason for their dislike, such as envy, insecurity, or perceived inferiority.

I feel a little sorry for such folks. I'll leave it at that.

D). All of the above.

 

[Phobi]

I think it is very difficult to judge Elon from everything we read online. We are building our perception of Elon from the perception others have developed working with him and he must be extremely demanding but if you are as hard working as he is, it must be extremely rewarding to work for him in one of his companies toward a common goal. I always take the comments from people who got fired from Tesla with a grain of salt. Their opinion might be biased from divergent views our situation that turned sour. It is always difficult to make an objective opinion of someone through the subjective opinions of others experiences. Sorry for this long brick post, I’m going to sleep.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494141453454426114

Indeed, his recipe for soldiers. Not sheep.


This is why we invest, HODL.

 

[Boomer19]

Mod: consider it deemed off-topic, especially since there's a separate thread for competing BEVs.

I've been doing too much moderation recently. Please, everyone, think before posting or replying in this thread.
--ggr

i’m not a moderator, but i did stay at a holiday inn last night

 

[Boomer19]

Why all the hatred for the Hummer EV???

Sure it’s inefficient, but it is still 100% electric and compared to a regular Hummer is an incredibly good vehicle for the environment.

I wouldn’t buy one of course, but we should be cheering on a revamp of any horrendous gas-guzzler into a pure EV model.

better, but not incredible

 

[Paul_SF]

Bro, imagine if that Organ had actually more invested in Lidar than Tesla! That hit piece would have be way worse! Right? Right? /s

 

[thesmokingman]

sure. just like I wouldn't want a collision with any large heavy vehicle. Does that mean we shouldn't want Tesla to release the semi either, because it would total other vehicles in a crash?

Did you really equate getting hit by a truck/suv with a big rig? That's a pretty big logic hurdle there man.

 

[ZachF]

better, but not incredible

I don’t hate the Hummer EV, I just find it an oddity/absurdity, where EV engineering and design inexperience is counteracted with sheer brute force. Eventually you end up with a 9000+ pound monstrosity and a 230 KWh battery to get the range and acceleration requirements. It’s the fascinating inevitability when compounding poor design choices on top of each other over and over.

 

[daniel]

But there is one thing [Elon Musk] doesn't do, in my experience. He doesn't publicly lie.

He lied to me when Tesla told me that my car had all the necessary hardware to operate as a robotaxi or be summoned, empty, from one coast to the other. And there are whole threads here about his long string of broken promises regarding FSD, promises he has to have known could not be met, yet he still keeps making them.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

You raise two separate issues: Diversification and divestment.

The opposite of diversification is all the eggs in one (or a few) baskets. I didn't watch the video but I'll note that Warren Buffet won his million-dollar bet by buying Vanguard's Whole-Market Index fund. Also, "investing for income" involves weighting heavily toward bonds. They don't grow for the future, but they provide a steady, reliable income. Picking individual stocks is a highly risky business. Mutual funds keep that risk much lower, and indexed funds keep both the risk and the cost at a minimum.

I totally agree with you on divestment. However I am too cynical to put my retirement income at risk by trying to manage my own portfolio in individual issues. And I would not trust any investment manager to do it for me. (I do have an investment advisor who advises me on mutual funds, mostly bond funds, widely diversified.) There are some funds that claim to be "socially responsible," but frankly I am not going to over-weight myself in any of them. And honestly, if I were not so hypocritical about my principles, I would divest myself of TSLA for Musk's abysmal treatment of employees and his anti-union stance. Once upon a time I would not have touched an anti-union company. But my cynicism has won out and I bought my Roadster and then my Model 3 in spite of my principles, because I wanted an electric car so badly, and for all Musk's horrid actions, he makes the best cars on the road. It's hard to find a "good" company. Amazon, for example, has superb customer service and fast delivery, but treats its employees like dog doo. In the end, if you're concerned about the environment (which I am) and the rights of workers (which I am) there's no company you can support with your purchases or your investment.

So I drive my electric car, and run my home and my car on solar, and pay people who do work for me (my landscaper and my house cleaners, etc.) a fair wage, which is about 50% more than they ask, but I'm not going to risk my income by attempting to manage my portfolio in individual issues.

Sorry for the long-winded reply.

tl:dr: Managing a portfolio in individual issues is highly risky if you know what you're doing, and foolish if you don't. Divestment is the moral choice, but in this economy, no company would meet even minimal standards.

While interesting to read your thoughts, I think we've reached the point where continued discussion is of little use, especially after this comment:

"I didn't watch the video"​

That video is key to this entire discussion, frankly.

There are stereotypes about trying to change opinions after a certain age so best to just drop it.

 

[insaneoctane]

I was just thinking how analogous the Pinto situation was to the Bolt last night- great minds.

However, I'm not sure that GM can make the Bolts cheap enough to lure back many consumers. I doubt they're prepared to sell a large volume of them at a loss. The Bolt, more than any other model of EV, is doomed without a new federal incentive. Unsafe at no speed.

I think the Bolt coming back (or not), in any significant volume, will illustrate how well we really understand legacy auto EV profitability. I am in agreement that they likely don't make any/much money on the Bolt. Seems like the bad press forces it to sell for a reduced amount vs premium. The batteries are in short supply and valuable in any of higher margin trucks. If they cancel the Bolt, then IMO we accurately understand legacy auto's predicament. If they begin selling the Bolt again, then we are missing something (short of GMs willingness to lose money on the Bolt to stay relevant, show their "leadership", or?)

 

[feigen66]

He lied to me when Tesla told me that my car had all the necessary hardware to operate as a robotaxi or be summoned, empty, from one coast to the other. And there are whole threads here about his long string of broken promises regarding FSD, promises he has to have known could not be met, yet he still keeps making them.

If you cannot take Elon's words, how about Andrej's?

I have watched all of Andrej's public interview, he seems to genuinely believe in Elon's vision. Maybe he have different timeline but he thinks he can make it happen.

This video was old but message from Andrej is still consistently the same.

 

[insaneoctane]

Some interesting comments from the AMA Herbert Diess on Reddit:

"Yes, definitely level 3 requires redundant Lidar perception."

I think a lot of OEMs/Lidar manufacturers will push for a LIDAR sensor required when offering a L3/4 solution and they'll lobby to have it written in law in Europe & US, hence the smear campaign against FSD

FUD is all about delaying the inevitable...this would do just that.

 

[PeterJA]

He lied to me when Tesla told me that my car had all the necessary hardware to operate as a robotaxi or be summoned, empty, from one coast to the other. And there are whole threads here about his long string of broken promises regarding FSD, promises he has to have known could not be met, yet he still keeps making them.

I've never seen Elon make any promises regarding FSD. I've seen him make estimates (which turned out to be wrong) based on information available at the time.

Your equating of the two confirms my guess about your knowledge of his actual behavior.

 

[[email protected]]

He lied to me when Tesla told me that my car had all the necessary hardware to operate as a robotaxi or be summoned, empty, from one coast to the other. And there are whole threads here about his long string of broken promises regarding FSD, promises he has to have known could not be met, yet he still keeps making them.

My whole experience with Tesla has been to be a witness to extraordinary achievement; evidence of strong, unprecedented work and sincere intent to reach a goal that has universal, altruistic benefit; and, yes, some disappointment because some goals have not been met. Help me understand the anger and bitterness: is your claim you were deprived of a ride coast to coast by a robo? Or maybe it is that you could not monetize the capability? Is the "long stream of broken promises" a personal failing of Elon that you are drumming up support for? I see the lashing out, but why?

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't think that Elon called Eberhard the "worst person" he's ever worked with because Eberhard was a terrible businessman. The stuff Elon described fell more in the lying, cheating, and stealing category.

I think Eberhard worked himself into a corner, worked longer than he could personally handle (everyone is different, but you need to recognize your limits) and made some very bad decisions under pressure as a result. It certainly is not the kind of CEO most investors would want but I don't think he's inherently a thief or a crook even if he did make some misrepresentations under pressure.

It must be remembered that to a person like Elon, being irrational is a crime. My interpretation is Elon called him a terrible person because he made very bad decisions while in charge of other people's money as well as being stubborn and petulant. It makes me wonder about the wisdom of those early investors who said they preferred him over Elon and, even more so, those who still like and respect him over Elon. Oh well!

 

[Ogre]

I think the Bolt coming back (or not), in any significant volume, will illustrate how well we really understand legacy auto EV profitability. I am in agreement that they likely don't make any/much money on the Bolt. Seems like the bad press forces it to sell for a reduced amount vs premium. The batteries are in short supply and valuable in any of higher margin trucks. If they cancel the Bolt, then IMO we accurately understand legacy auto's predicament. If they begin selling the Bolt again, then we are missing something (short of GMs willingness to lose money on the Bolt to stay relevant, show their "leadership", or?)

The Bolt prevents GM from having to buy regulatory credits from Tesla. I don’t know how much savings that is per car, but it’s significant. As much as people complained that Tesla was only profitable due to regulatory credits, the Bolt may well be in a similar boat, only profitable to GM as a product to defray the need to purchase them.

 

[Tyler34]

He lied to me when Tesla told me that my car had all the necessary hardware to operate as a robotaxi or be summoned, empty, from one coast to the other. And there are whole threads here about his long string of broken promises regarding FSD, promises he has to have known could not be met, yet he still keeps making them.

So if fsd is achieved with hw3 he will have never lied to you. Easy enough.

 

[Ogre]

So if fsd is achieved with hw3 he will have never lied to you. Easy enough.

Tesla has already said that they will upgrade anyone whose hardware won’t work with FSD to the hardware required for FSD when it is 100%.

So the idea that someone paid for hardware that won’t work doesn’t really mesh. If the hardware won’t work, they will upgrade your car.