BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
Secret sauce indeed, highly worth watching! Here is a snip from the ending showing the results of their magnet strength test from the end of the the video:
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I know it's been a bit of a blur this week, but did anyone notice or mention that our PE nearly dropped to 100 this week? 100! (actually hit ~109 from my math)
That's absurd. Tesla grew at 87% last year and is guiding for similar growth this year plus "around 50%" growth for the next handful of years. Obviously there's a min-war on and things get irrational, but a forward PE of 100 is insane for a company like this, let alone based on the actual 4 trailing quarters.
That's absurd. Tesla grew at 87% last year and is guiding for similar growth this year plus "around 50%" growth for the next handful of years. Obviously there's a min-war on and things get irrational, but a forward PE of 100 is insane for a company like this, let alone based on the actual 4 trailing quarters.
Where are you getting that TSLA's TTM P/E nearly dropped below 100?
Lowest it was yesterday was around 140. If we stay at 800/share though after Q1's earnings, TTM is dropping below 100.
Keep in mind we are at the steepest part of the EPS growth curve, EPS growth will slow significantly in percentage terms from 2023 onwards (Compared to 2022).
eg: adding $5-$10 billion annually in net income is crazy 1000%+ EPS growth when you previously were showing very little sub-$1 billion net income. But once you have $10 billion in TTM net income, growing that by another $10 billion the next year leads to ”only” 100% net income growth (still an amazing rate, but 100 p/e valuation doesn’t look quite so unreasonable at that level).
if tesla “merely” held 100x P/E multiple for the next few years, we will be trading at $3000-$4000 in 2025.
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Keep in mind that right now the EPS growth is 600%! So while I agree it will slow, it should only slow to the 50% number. Thats how insane this is.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm using your logic to decide on my last leverage bullet(s) I'm willing to use. 54 days from now a $900 share price gives TSLA a PE of 100. 3 months after that, a $900 share price gives us a PE of about 82. An $805 SP in 3 months is 74.
And that's based off of fairly conservative EPS estimates for 1Q and 2Q. I'm sitting here thinking it would be wise to sell a chunk today and convert 1/4 of that cash to Jan2024 $1000/$1400 call spreads @ ~$30. Sit on the rest, see if we revisit $700, then dump it into something like 2024 $1000c.
The dam is so obviously gonna have to break. Do we really think we can make a major mistake with leverage maybe half as risky as what I've noted above?
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
Tesla Installs Megapacks On Alaska's Kenai Peninsula - CleanTechnica
Alaska's Kenai Peninsula, which is named after the Native Athabascan Alaskan Tribe, the Kahtnuht’ana Dena’ina
cleantechnica.com
TL DR: "Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula, which is named after the Native Athabascan Alaskan tribe the Kahtnuht’ana Dena’ina, will no longer rely on gas turbines to distribute electricity to the community."
“To reduce their reliance on gas turbines and add more renewable technology to the local grid, a 93 MWh Tesla Megapack was installed. Megapack energy storage integrates with existing energy infrastructure to provide voltage support, enhance grid stability and reduce gas burn even in freezing temperatures."
Link to the official Tesla Video : Bringing Megapack to Rural Alaska
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Last 4 quarters totals something like $6.7 EPS. SP touched 695 this week. Is that the wrong math? For whatever reason I have a tough time with EPS/GAAP/PE/etc, but I think this is correct.
use gaap eps of 4.9 instead since thats where the reported PE comes from.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
That's only part of the dynamic though. And even then, it’s debatable as to exactly when Tesla’s earnings growth %-wise will moderate. They’ll have operational leverage to take advantage of from Austin, Berlin, and the 2nd Shanghai gigafactory for the next 2-3 years. Combine that with battery cost reductions and realizing more FSD revenue/higher FSD take rate and I could see earnings growth not really trailing off until 2025.
Yes EPS growth will slow from the previous year's pace as a trend. But the impact to P/E and Tesla's valuation will be the same effectively. If 2023's EPS growth is only 100% and not 200% like in 2022 like we expect, well the impact to TSLA's valuation and it's TTM is effectively the same. Earnings are growing by the same amount $-wise in effect, just not %-wise.
All of this would matter a lot more if Wall St hadn’t already compressed the multiples down so much for TSLA already now.
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Phobi
Member
Haha yes Steve Weiss really is that dumb Melissa…we knew this the whole time
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Intentional, but not my joke. I'm trying to spread it thoughBravo if this was an intentional play on words
From now on, I submit all references to Legacy Auto be changed to Lagacy Auto.
CLK350
Member
From the comments section
" The carbon wrapped stator comes from rockets, let me explain. In rockets we use carbon over pressure vessels to make tanks, these are thin metal tank that are wrapped with thin strip of carbon fiber, these can take pressures of 5000 psi. With the magnets in the motors trying to push away from each other using carbon fiber wrap makes sense so you can hold in the magnets even tighter. If you use a woven cloth then the seam becomes a weak point of failure which would cause the motor to explode, wrapping is the only way they could do it."
" In other words this is rocket science applied to Tesla EV's - again (other one I remember was structural body design) "
Haha yes Steve Weiss really is that dumb Melissa…we knew this the whole time
He was THIS close to say Tesla will have a demand problem... Looks like @Krugerrand has barely dodged another stock buy
Wow, macro is strong into close. I thought there will be a sell off as people are fearful of the weekend. Looks like Vix got crushed below 30 and fear suddenly disappeared.
lafrisbee
Active Member
well it ain't perfect... often the quoted price ther is off by a bunch.
lafrisbee
Active Member
We totally agreed. Sandy can't know it all but sometimes he doesn't know anything about what he is talking about. He discussed how winding the fiber around the motor would only stop the force in one direction so a weave would be better. Ah Sandy? it is in that ONE direction that the control is needed.
(Simple and elegant)
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Well I'm glad they brought that up so I don't have to! I remember Elon talking about the carbon over-wrapped rotor during the Plaid delivey event, and clearly there is no other way to make the rotors strong enough to survive 20,000 rpm "or maybe a bit more", as Elon put it.
Elon also said they had to design and build their own huge custom wrapping machine to spin the carbon fiber thread tightly enough around the rotor. I don't recall offhand, but it's some crazy number like 20 megapascals tension on the carbon fiber required to get that pressure. Elon loves to geek-out!
I laughed a bit when Sandy said he "didn't like it" and that he would have done it differently, because they had a customer who uses carbon wraps for, what was it, sewing machines? and he likes knitted carbon wraps more because it "slides on easier". Bah ha ha! Do you think megapascals slide easy, Sandy?
Its pretty clear that Sandy didn't watch the Plaid reveal event (or might just not have understood the significance of what Elon was saying) But hey, I cut Sandy a huge amount of slack because he clearly gets it about what Tesla is doing with innovation and manufacturing, and he admires good ideas and great engineering. Not a bad style of living.
Cheers!
P.S. Its the rotor that is carbon over-wrapped, not the stator. Stators don't spin, thus don't need to resist centrifugal the forces of high rpm. The rotor in the 3/Y is fine since the even the P model of the car is electronically limited to 163 mph, but with the Plaid S they wanted to hit 200 mph so that's ~20K rpm.
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