Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

Yes, on the back of Job's vision for the ipod/iphone/ipad/app store. When you have accumulated a massive amount of customers(which Tesla is not yet there in the grand scheme of thing), the momentum alone can carry sales to what Apple is today. They are now nothing but bean counters just like Intel, sitting on their asses with a pile of cash not really having any home runs or the "next Iphone" product while the rest of the industry catches up and now surpassed.

I don't see Tesla ever having other companies surpass with Elon in charge, but a bean counter would maximize profits vs innovation and drive Tesla to the ground at this moment in time.

Are you part of the AAPLQ crowd?

/S

 

[printf42]

Months and months for copies. Body sides are the most difficult to make and that time frame is yearish for a brand new set.

Just making the castings alone is about 5 weeks long time frame.

Every stage will be validated before going to the next. First they have to make Styrofoam forms that are digitally scanned (after feasibility checks and others from the designs). That’s at least a week ON TOP OF the 5 weeks for a full die set. There will be multiple forms for each die.

Then the Styrofoam forms are put in boxes and the forms are packed with sand. The packing process alone takes like a week and a halfish.

Then they pump in the molten casting material, the Styrofoam melts. Takes a day or so.

Then it takes a week and a half+ for the castings to cool. Not a typo. The castings can’t cool too quickly or they are junk-will be brittle or too soft. So they let them cool a bit, then open the boxes and let them cool a bit, then take away a bit of sand and let them cool a bit, then take away more sand, etc...

Then when the castings are cooled they have to cut off the extra bits; ie. pipes in and pipes out. Then the castings have to be digitally scanned and verified again.

The castings will have ‘over cast’ so next they go in a CNC machine to be ‘rough’ machined. Then there they will be ‘fine’ machining. Rough machining is a dayS long process, fine machining is much long. A single piece of cast can take 100+ hours to fine machine. Times that by multiple pieces of cast PER die.

Then everything has to digitally scanned again.

Then surfaces have to be heat treated. Then more scanning and fine machining because heat treating can cause distortions. Then more digital scanning and and and.

At certain stages, you can speed up the build process by throwing bodies at it, but a lot of the stages take the time they take and there’s no way to make it go faster without ruining the die/part of the die and then you get to start all over.

So, yeah. Months and months. And then when the dies are done, you’re looking at weeks to months to trial them and bring them up to optimization.

Copies save you time at the beginning during simulations and feasibility studies and the like, and should save time at the end during trials and getting the dies to run rate.

Some questions since you’re familiar with the topic:

• For high volume cars, like Camry and such, do they make multiple copies of the casts and press at the same time or there is pretty much only one set of casting, and when it wears it’s time for a face lift?
• If they were to make multiple copies of the castings, will the second set take less time or still the same process? I am imagining the process of making the first set would need to go through a series of trial and error that test fit the tolerance then make adjustments or remake. Making a second set would not need to go through that iterative process again, do they?

 

[Zaxxon]

Actually wouldn't that be a gravity powered car? (The water doesn't actually get used up.)

If you're going down that rabbit hole, all cars (and all other entities on Earth) are ultimately solar-powered.

Edit: looks like the article is 2 y.o. , hopefully the energy mix is getting better, I know Xcel Energy pushes solar a lot lately, seems they had some kind of regulations/targets put on their energy sources.

Yes, that's old data. Here the latest numbers. CO is now at 46 as of last year.

 

[Causalien]

Apparently, my state on average has one of the dirtiest energy mixes in U.S.
A gas car has to have at least 34mpg in CO to have less emissions than an EV with 0.34kwh/mile efficiency.
Nice pic here:
The coal-powered EV myth; Electricity is only as clean as the method to generate it
View attachment 391074

I'm currently driving 2019 Camry rental(and hating it every day) while having my paint fixed on M3, it has 31.2mpg average, so it is worse for one of dirtiest energy mix states.

Edit: looks like the article is 2 y.o. , hopefully the energy mix is getting better, I know Xcel Energy pushes solar a lot lately, seems they had some kind of regulations/targets put on their energy sources.

Ehh? Isn't Colorado supposed to have one of the best nature? Like the Swiss alps of USA? How can you guys be so backward and use coal to destroy the environment?

 

[Big Blue 1011]

This chase makes me think that the SEC lawyers or staff were embarrassed by the 60 minute clip and maybe the short enhancement commission joke and were looking for an opportunity. I said originally this is one of the weakest arguments for contempt I have seen and I would be embarrassed to present it to the judge.

I agree. Not to mention appointing Larry "I am very close friends to Elon Musk and I am a very big investor in Tesla," Ellison as one of the two independent directors required by the settlement.

 

[Artful Dodger]

they said a government body FINRA issued this order—not them

Somebody's lying, either E-trade or FINRA:

FINRA is not part of the government. We’re a not-for-profit organization authorized by Congress to protect America’s investors by making sure the broker-dealer industry operates fairly and honestly.​

 

[30seconds]

Months and months for copies. Body sides are the most difficult to make and that time frame is yearish for a brand new set.

Just making the castings alone is about 5 weeks long time frame.

Every stage will be validated before going to the next. First they have to make Styrofoam forms that are digitally scanned (after feasibility checks and others from the designs). That’s at least a week ON TOP OF the 5 weeks for a full die set. There will be multiple forms for each die.

Then the Styrofoam forms are put in boxes and the forms are packed with sand. The packing process alone takes like a week and a halfish.

Then they pump in the molten casting material, the Styrofoam melts. Takes a day or so.

Then it takes a week and a half+ for the castings to cool. Not a typo. The castings can’t cool too quickly or they are junk-will be brittle or too soft. So they let them cool a bit, then open the boxes and let them cool a bit, then take away a bit of sand and let them cool a bit, then take away more sand, etc...

Then when the castings are cooled they have to cut off the extra bits; ie. pipes in and pipes out. Then the castings have to be digitally scanned and verified again.

The castings will have ‘over cast’ so next they go in a CNC machine to be ‘rough’ machined. Then there they will be ‘fine’ machining. Rough machining is a dayS long process, fine machining is much long. A single piece of cast can take 100+ hours to fine machine. Times that by multiple pieces of cast PER die.

Then everything has to digitally scanned again.

Then surfaces have to be heat treated. Then more scanning and fine machining because heat treating can cause distortions. Then more digital scanning and and and.

At certain stages, you can speed up the build process by throwing bodies at it, but a lot of the stages take the time they take and there’s no way to make it go faster without ruining the die/part of the die and then you get to start all over.

So, yeah. Months and months. And then when the dies are done, you’re looking at weeks to months to trial them and bring them up to optimization.

Copies save you time at the beginning during simulations and feasibility studies and the like, and should save time at the end during trials and getting the dies to run rate.

Good news is that they knew months and months ago that China GF was coming up.

 

[mblakele]

I agree. Not to mention appointing Larry "I am very close friends to Elon Musk and I am a very big investor in Tesla," Ellison as one of the two independent directors required by the settlement.

If it doesn't go too far off-topic, can you expand on why appointing Ellison might have bothered the SEC? My amateur take on this was that the governing rules would be NASDAQ's, and they seem very broad. As I read it, "independent" mostly excludes employees and immediate family of employees.

http://nasdaq.cchwallstreet.com/nas...p_1_1_4/chp_1_1_4_3/chp_1_1_4_3_8/default.asp

 

[Zaxxon]

Ehh? Isn't Colorado supposed to have one of the best nature? Like the Swiss alps of USA? How can you guys be so backward and use coal to destroy the environment?

It's convoluted, but has to do with the Rocky Mountain Power Area including Colorado as well as parts of Wyoming and South Dakota. Lots of coal which skews the results despite the Denver area's fairly high solar PV penetration.

 

[RobStark]

I wonder how the kids react today when they see a Lamborghini or a Ferrari?

So tip for the kids: Shrug. Say “pity it’s not electric”. Walk on.

If you could get women 18-28 to do that then I would short Ferrari.

 

[Krugerrand]

Some questions since you’re familiar with the topic:

• For high volume cars, like Camry and such, do they make multiple copies of the casts and press at the same time or there is pretty much only one set of casting, and when it wears it’s time for a face lift?
• If they were to make multiple copies of the castings, will the second set take less time or still the same process? I am imagining the process of making the first set would need to go through a series of trial and error that test fit the tolerance then make adjustments or remake. Making a second set would not need to go through that iterative process again, do they?

Typically only one set is made. Dies are expensive, like 100s of thousands per die with sets typically of 4 or 5. So in the millions. A set usually makes one part. Some sets make two parts - like doors. A die set might make an outer left front door and an outer right front door. That die set would cost more than a die set that made just an outer trunk lid. The pricing can be a fairly wide range depending on size and complexity.

There are low volume dies and high volume dies. That’s self-explanatory. Dies sets can last decades and decades with proper maintenance and storage. Dies are made of pieces, many that can be replaced. I’ve seen dies crack in half, literally, and be repaired and keep pumping out parts. And I’ve seen dies that were junk from day one; badly designed/badly made.

No, making a duplicate set doesn’t take less time to ‘make’ as I explained in previous post. Time saved on copies is more in the before and after stages.

 

[Big Blue 1011]

If it doesn't go too far off-topic, can you expand on why appointing Ellison might have bothered the SEC? My amateur take on this was that the governing rules would be NASDAQ's, and they seem very broad. As I read it, "independent" mostly excludes employees and immediate family of employees.

http://nasdaq.cchwallstreet.com/nas...p_1_1_4/chp_1_1_4_3/chp_1_1_4_3_8/default.asp

Elon Musk and Tesla have 'outmaneuvered' the SEC, says management guru Jeff Sonnenfeld

 

[Artful Dodger]

If you're going down that rabbit hole, all cars (and all other entities on Earth) are ultimately solar-powered.

WAY OT:

Haha no, not for EVs charged from nuclear power plants.

Energy extracted by humans from the fission of uranium was originally:

• stored in matter fused within a large star near the end of its life
• that star went supernova expelling its heavy elements into space
  
• a primordial nebula was created containing those elements
  
• some heavy element from that nebula coalesced with our rocky planets
  
• this matter never entered our sun (Sol), but stayed in the planetary disc
  
• thus uranium found on Earth was never created by our sun

But it's correct to say the uranium was created in another star, it's just that it happened approx. 5 billion years ago.

So its fair to say nuclear fission energy is stellar in origin, but its not "solar" power. And in another deeper sense, nuclear energy is the ultimate 'non-reunewable' energy source: not ONLY is it not solar energy, but the star the stored that energy gave its life to do so. It's truly dead and gone, and its not coming back.

Cheers!

P.S. Sol isn't massive enough to create uranium at the end of its life either. I think iron is the heaviest element that can be created by a star of 1 solar mass.

 

[Yuri_G]

Apparently, my state on average has one of the dirtiest energy mixes in U.S.
A gas car has to have at least 34mpg in CO to have less emissions than an EV with 0.34kwh/mile efficiency.
Nice pic here:
The coal-powered EV myth; Electricity is only as clean as the method to generate it
View attachment 391074

I'm currently driving 2019 Camry rental(and hating it every day) while having my paint fixed on M3, it has 31.2mpg average, so it is worse for one of dirtiest energy mix states.

Edit: looks like the article is 2 y.o. , hopefully the energy mix is getting better, I know Xcel Energy pushes solar a lot lately, seems they had some kind of regulations/targets put on their energy sources.

That map is from 2009. Here's the 2016 map.

New Data Show Electric Vehicles Continue to Get Cleaner

 

[pz1975]

Elon Musk and Tesla have 'outmaneuvered' the SEC, says management guru Jeff Sonnenfeld

Sonnenfeld is a known Chanos supporter and has spread FUD about Tesla in the past many times.

To quote our own Papafox: “...Jeffrey Sommenfeld, an associate dean of the Yale School of Management. Surely, the good Professor Sommenfeld was an unbiased professional who would weigh in on this matter. In reality, short-seller Jim Chanos was a graduate of the Yale School of Management and a visiting lecturer there, working with Sommerfield.”
The War On Tesla By "Click Reporters" Reaches A New Low | CleanTechnica

 

[Pezpunk]

That map is from 2009. Here's the 2016 map.

New Data Show Electric Vehicles Continue to Get Cleaner

lol at the three levels being subjectively labeled good, better, and best. so the worst state in the union is "good". good compared to what? 1970s gas guzzlers?

 

[dc_h]

Apparently, my state on average has one of the dirtiest energy mixes in U.S.
A gas car has to have at least 34mpg in CO to have less emissions than an EV with 0.34kwh/mile efficiency.
Nice pic here:
The coal-powered EV myth; Electricity is only as clean as the method to generate it
View attachment 391074

I'm currently driving 2019 Camry rental(and hating it every day) while having my paint fixed on M3, it has 31.2mpg average, so it is worse for one of dirtiest energy mix states.

Edit: looks like the article is 2 y.o. , hopefully the energy mix is getting better, I know Xcel Energy pushes solar a lot lately, seems they had some kind of regulations/targets put on their energy sources.

I’ve seen these numbers before and question the veracity. Illinois gets half its electricity from nuclear, so should be closer to 80-90 mpg. I did t check the rest of the country.

 

[Unpilot]

Elon Musk and Tesla have 'outmaneuvered' the SEC, says management guru Jeff Sonnenfeld

CNBC....ha ha nice try...me no clicky..

 

[M3Rider]

That map is from 2009. Here's the 2016 map.

New Data Show Electric Vehicles Continue to Get Cleaner

Looking much better, Thank you!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Actually wouldn't that be a gravity powered car? (The water doesn't actually get used up.)

Actually it’s more of a solar powered car since the sun is what heats up the lakes and oceans to cause rain into the rivers that run the hydro turbines.