Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

The article states Tesla came to a supply agreement with Prony, but Tesla hasn't acquired any part of Prony

Yeah, there's lot's of deals in the works, hard to keep up, wot? Here more news on possible Indonesian nickel JVs for Tesla: (capital projects)

• Indonesia receives investment proposal from Tesla: official | Reuters www.reuters.com › article › us-indonesia-nickel-tesla-idUSKBN2A50C5
• Tesla tells nickel-rich Indonesia it wants to join battery project asia.nikkei.com › Business › Automobiles › Tesla-tells-nickel-rich-Indonesi...
• Tesla partners with nickel mine amid shortage fears - BBC News www.bbc.com › news › business-56288781

My main point is that in this Wild West, Tesla HAS CAPITAL, WILL TRAVEL.

Won't even add: "Keep your powder dry".

Cheers!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Max pain has shifted to 900. Lot's to catch up on there, Max.

Here's volume for today.

 

[Artful Dodger]

But a strict interpretation, would mean that it is now slipped to 20 million vehicles per year by 2032.

Hahaha! That's not a strict interpretation. That was Elon's off-the-cuff reply to a question asked in an impromtu Q&A session, at an unrelated event!

2030 was always an approximation, not a deadline. It's aspirational, and the aspirations are going UP! not down.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I hope when Elon said 20M in 10 years, he’s referring back to his earlier reference from 2020.

But a strict interpretation, would mean that it is now slipped to 20 million vehicles per year by 2032.

I'm betting Tesla will produce 20m by 2030 at a minimum. I think their production target for 2030 has gone up. Hopefully we will learn more specifics when master plan 3 comes out

 

[mongo]

Max pain has shifted. Lot's to catch up on there, Max.

View attachment 784803

Volume != open interest, but it will imapct it.

 

[kbM3]

Hahaha! That's not a strict interpretation. That was Elon's off-the-cuff reply to a question asked in an impromtu Q&A session, at an unrelated event!

2030 was always an approximation, not a deadline. It's aspirational, and the aspirations are going UP! not down.

It is absolutely the only strict way to interpret his statement yesterday.

 

[jbcarioca]

Yeah, there's lot's of deals in the works, hard to keep up, wot? Here more news on possible Indonesian nickel JVs for Tesla: (capital projects)

• Indonesia receives investment proposal from Tesla: official | Reuters www.reuters.com › article › us-indonesia-nickel-tesla-idUSKBN2A50C5
• Tesla tells nickel-rich Indonesia it wants to join battery project asia.nikkei.com › Business › Automobiles › Tesla-tells-nickel-rich-Indonesi...
• Tesla partners with nickel mine amid shortage fears - BBC News www.bbc.com › news › business-56288781

My main point is that in this Wild West, Tesla HAS CAPITAL, WILL TRAVEL.

View attachment 784804

Won't even add: "Keep your powder dry".

Cheers!

I suspect there is more than one Tesla investment in Indonesian nickel. I am assured by a seemingly knowledgable attorney who works extensively with large mining companies that Tesla has directly or indirectly involved in at least six mining projects in Peru, Bolivia and Brazil already in place. Several of those may involved projects in other countries but with extraction and refining operators in these three. Normally,for the two decades I've known him he's been pretty accurate. As he points out, not all the deals will necessarily end out being productive. At this level there are a fair number of project failures, usually because the geology, logistics, politics or commodity prices diminish the attractivenesss. Roughly half the projects end out with commercial production.

Frankly I think Tesla is pursuing all high-probability-of-success projects for all major raw material categories. After all, at the torrid growth rate they cannot depend on traditional supplier purchasing. Russia and Ukraine are great examples. Both were huge commodity suppliers a few weeks ago. Both are, at best, seriously constrained. Tesla is doing serious contingency planning right now, as they've done since the beginning.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I just had this nice dream. All the MM's and hedgies are, apparently, going beserk trying to close their short positions before it's too late. And that includes the people who've been doing naked short selling.
Wouldn't it be nice if, right about now, Telsa does another 5:1 split using the dividend method, so all those naked shares would have to get covered?
Serve the pirates right.

A few days ago, the TLSA climb reminded me of summer 2020. The split also happened right after a run up already but then it went flat a few months before taking off.

I don't want to start a rumor, nothing to go on here. Just feels like we've been here before. For all I know, a split can't happen w/o a vote, so just sharing.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Max pain has shifted. Lot's to catch up on there, Max.

View attachment 784803

That IS NOT "Max Pain" (which is a specific SP). You've posted the Volume chart. You need to post the Open Interest Chart to determine the Max Pain point.

You seem to confuse this point frequently. I suggest you learn the difference between Open Interest vs. Options Volume.

HTH.

 

[Ogre]

A quick bit of back-of-the napkin math here.

Giga Brandenburg triggered a $200+ stock movement. Giga Austin is 4x the size of Brandenburg so… We should expect TSLA to push up to $1800 a share when Texas opens up.


Wall Street likes factories so that’s how this works right


Perhaps the factories opening just as the macros are loosening are turning into a big catalyst. Mostly kidding about the scale of it, but I think the momentum around the stock plus the Texas opening in the news cycle is going to keep adding fuel.


PS: Do not regret cutting my AAPL position in half when SP was at 840 and loading up on LEAPS.

Not advice. Never Investing Advice.

 

[SOULPEDL]

That IS NOT "Max Pain" (which is a specific SP). You've posted the Volume chart. You need to post the Open Interest Chart to determine the Max Pain point.

You seem to confuse this point frequently. I suggest you learn the difference between Open Interest vs. Options Volume.

HTH.

I thought it was obvious the chart was not Max Pain. I clarified the original post.

 

[saniflash]

to add to the rumor mill, what about WS front running an impending upgrade to investment-grade by S&P?

 

[larmor]

A quick bit of back-of-the napkin math here.

Giga Brandenburg triggered a $200+ stock movement. Giga Austin is 4x the size of Brandenburg so… We should expect TSLA to push up to $1800 a share when Texas opens up.


Wall Street likes factories so that’s how this works right


Perhaps the factories opening just as the macros are loosening are turning into a big catalyst. Mostly kidding about the scale of it, but I think the momentum around the stock plus the Texas opening in the news cycle is going to keep adding fuel.


PS: Do not regret cutting my AAPL position in half when SP was at 840 and loading up on LEAPS.

Not advice. Never Investing Advice.

Another Shortsville Times headline: New Tesla factory unable to sell any cars since they are all ready all sold.

 

[Zero CO2]

A quick bit of back-of-the napkin math here.

Giga Brandenburg triggered a $200+ stock movement. Giga Austin is 4x the size of Brandenburg so… We should expect TSLA to push up to $1800 a share when Texas opens up.


Wall Street likes factories so that’s how this works right


Perhaps the factories opening just as the macros are loosening are turning into a big catalyst. Mostly kidding about the scale of it, but I think the momentum around the stock plus the Texas opening in the news cycle is going to keep adding fuel.


PS: Do not regret cutting my AAPL position in half when SP was at 840 and loading up on LEAPS.

Not advice. Never Investing Advice.

unfortunately your not advice is not possible now even if one wanted to follow your not advice .... barring another Black Swan 840 may be forever in the rear view mirror... we shall see ...

 

[lafrisbee]

Maybe this was shared earlier, but this close-up of Elon dancing in Berlin (or thereabouts) with the Drone was worth the excitement all over again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506323483059490817

(Edit: @elasalle beat me to it!)

ANYONE got an address to the drone footage he chases?

 

[Ogre]

unfortunately your not advice is not possible now even if one wanted to follow your not advice .... barring another Black Swan 840 may be forever in the rear view mirror... we shall see ...

Oh, that part of my comment was past tense. I DID sell a bunch of AAPL and buy $840 options.

Sorry for the confusion.

I do not expect to see $840 again either. Of course I didn’t expect to see it again 2 months ago either. But those lousy black swans

 

[AudubonB]

On Tesla and the Mining Industry -

• I haven't any intrinsic problem with Tesla considering indirect involvement with a resource extractor, as long as
  • Such were done very strictly as a hands-off infusion of capital so that MiningCo thus were enabled to proceed with some project(s)
  • The capital involved were not otherwise being repurposed from the next Gigafactory, Service Center, SpC expansion or other CapEx that are and should remain the heart of Tesla Inc.
  • "Well, it's better than paying a dividend" is weak but still, barely, a positive reason
• The most important words above are the hands-off pair
• However, the resource extraction industry is one with an entirely different capital allocation structure, a different ROI, ROC, IRR and a very different long-term prospect: remember, one is pursuing a diminishing asset base not just with any single deposit but with the entire universe of possible mines an entity can pursue, and that getting the bestest the quickest (ie, pursuing the richest vein, etc. - subject to other parameters) always provides the greatest ROC for a mining company...and this is wholly foreign territory for a manufacturing enterprise.
  • And, therefore, the extent to which Tesla WERE TO enter directly, not indirectly, into the extractive industry is the extent to which I would have to reconsider my own investment in this company to a degree I never have had to do. And hope never to have to do.
  • There is another way for me to explain this. Given our investment in TSLA, I always look at the company and how it is proceeding as if I truly were a member of the Board of Directors. Do I voice my approval or disapproval to such an action? This has stood me in good stead over the near-decade of our investment in this company

 

[Discoducky]

I think Sam is doing a good job debunking GJ as well. His latest is a Squawkbox interview I hadn't seen yet, where GJ is flat out lying about easily provable facts.

 

[SOULPEDL]

ANYONE got an address to the drone footage he chases?

Thinking it's internal raw footage for use in a future mix release. Possibly the same team as who did the recent factory flythrough.

From a marketing perspective for talent acquisition, Elon is a rockstar and his character can be used to spread truth and further the mission AND pull a resource crowd for rapid growth. It taps into the nerdy Engineering minds out there especially. As Dave Mustaine once told our fat shred guitar player from 9-Ball, "Why would anyone want to be you?" He couldn't have been more correct. It's a projection of self, and you can't get that curisma from a product. I cannot become a Tesla, but millions want to become Elon.

 

[Dutchie]

Did something heretic today - I had to sell some. Unfortunately, to pay tax bill