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Q2 2021 Tesla produced 206k cars, so if Fremont makes 130k and Berlin and Austin 10k each, Shanghai needs to produce 66k (~36% capacity) for the TTM production to be up.

Tesla will possibly post a loss though this quarter… 😕
While that makes me sad for the people waiting a bit longer on the delivery, thats still a *pepper* ton of cars delivered. So as an investor, if that gives me an artificial discount on the share price accumulation, I am all for it :)
 
Did you mean a financial loss or a production decline?

Well, production will certainly decline this quarter, as Shanghai is the largest factory and it’s been down for two weeks now. TTM is trailing twelve months.

Berlin and Austin are likely not ramped enough yet to be producing profits.

I suspect if production doesn’t restart within a week Tesla will probably lose money in Q2, as it will probably take a month to get back up to its ~2,000 cars/day production rate.
 
My guess is that they are holding some range in reserve until they can gather more real world data. 2170 and 18650 is a known quantity and the 4680 isn’t yet.

Also I expect the 4680 LRs to get a range bump when they come out.
You really think they don't have extensive real world testing modeled, stationary, and mobile on 4680 packs?. No way that would ever happen. Range bump is another story but has nothing to do with "wait and see". That may happen with FSD but not with packs and drive systems today. They probably at least drove a couple cars around town to prove 4680 packs before staking the companies future on them:)
 
I like where this 2Q conversation is going. Set those expectations LOW!

I get the feeling we're gonna see the true lunacy of the Shanghai team in display over the next 2.5 months as they maneuver and scale to limit impact.

If chips are piling up and we see the factory open in 2 weeks, I could still see them nearly catching up. Elon says they're chip constrained, so if that's not being impacted right now.....
 
You really think they don't have extensive real world testing modeled, stationary, and mobile on 4680 packs?. No way that would ever happen. Range bump is another story but has nothing to do with "wait and see". That may happen with FSD but not with packs and drive systems today. They probably at least drove a couple cars around town to prove 4680 packs before staking the companies future on them:)
They've obviously done plenty of testing, but the delay and concerns we're about safety/heat, so I could easily see Elon wanting a slow rollout.

I think the first 20k or so are being sold to employees, right? My best guess is they're software limited on charge/capacity/discharge and we'll see the stats bumped as consumer sales begin.

Just a quick few million miles for one last safety check at scale.
 
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Well, production will certainly decline this quarter, as Shanghai is the largest factory and it’s been down for two weeks now. TTM is trailing twelve months.

Berlin and Austin are likely not ramped enough yet to be producing profits.

I suspect if production doesn’t restart within a week Tesla will probably lose money in Q2, as it will probably take a month to get back up to its ~2,000 cars/day production rate.
It will be interesting. Cash flow may take a hit based on material flow delay vs supplier deliveries.
No idea how overall costs are impacted by the shutdown. Who doesn't get paid, operations(SG&A) vs manufacting (COGS), utilities, construction delay payment shifting.
If there are sequestered people at the factory, they could get ahead on maintenance and updates. I see supply chain ramp being more limiting than factory rate.
 
The concern is that a 4680 Model Y, should be more efficient because the structural pack and front casting and higher energy density and lower range (less energy capacity) should all be contributing to a significantly lighter weight, and the EPA efficiency rating indicates no improvement.
Tesla need to play here very carefully, you can't have 4680 show huge improvement over 2170 while 4680 equip cars are limited in production to avoid
cannibalization.
 
They've obviously done plenty of testing, but the delay and concers we're about safety/heat, so I could easily see Elon wanting a slow rollout.

I think the first 20k or so are being sold to employees, right? My best guess is they're software limited on charge/capacity/discharge and we'll see the stats bumped as consumer sales begin.

Just a quick few million miles for one last safety check at scale.
We recently did this at my company with a new part - we added a new motion sensor (P.I.R.) and put a couple of thousand in the field close to our FOB.

Really worked out since we had to rework some because the capacitors we sourced for our BMS (battery management) were slightly different tolerance that what we designed due to supply constraints and we needed to pull them back and remove a resistor to keep the BMS steady.

This had nothing to do with the actual batteries or circuit design and was all about sourcing a different part that was slightly out of spec for that requested range.

Tesla might have nailed everything with the 4680's but is putting other parts of the new car through the paces since components changed from design to implementation and are being very cautious.

This is what I take from it, choose your own destiny.... (also a fantastic children's book series)
 
They've obviously done plenty of testing, but the delay and concers we're about safety/heat, so I could easily see Elon wanting a slow rollout.

I think the first 20k or so are being sold to employees, right? My best guess is they're software limited on charge/capacity/discharge and we'll see the stats bumped as consumer sales begin.

Just a quick few million miles for one last safety check at scale.
What concerns over safety and heat? I'm not aware of these can you link me to this please.
 
Tesla need to play here very carefully, you can't have 4680 show huge improvement over 2170 while 4680 equip cars are limited in production to avoid
cannibalization.

This is part of it too. There is not only possible Osborne factors between the current SR and LR, but the current LR and a future 4680 LR that must be threaded. Holding a small percentage of the new SR battery in reserve achieves this while providing real world engineering validation on top.
 
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What concerns over safety and heat? I'm not aware of these can you link me to this please.
The plan was to only cool these cells/packs from the top/bottom. Elon mentioned in one of the quarterly updates that 4680 production was nearly ready and they were just making sure it was absolutely safe. Then they're released with regular side cooling between cells. Pretty clear they gave up(for now) on trying to cool on the ends only. What other reason could there be than safety?
 
The plan was to only cool these cells/packs from the top/bottom. Elon mentioned in one of the quarterly updates that 4680 production was nearly ready and they were just making sure it was absolutely safe. Then they're released with regular side cooling between cells. Pretty clear they gave up(for now) on trying to cool on the ends only. What other reason could there be than safety?
When did Tesla/ Elon say they planned to bottom cool the cells in vehicles? (Top/ connection side makes no sense).
Are you referring to their patent apps with plate cooling (likely energy storage) or the partially submerged cell/pack one?
 
This guy was the source of Russ Mitchell's recent hit piece.





Omar already uncovered that he was pushing TSLAQ -- I wouldn't be surprised to learn if his familiarity with twitter bots was actually because he was behind TSLAQ oriented bots as he was clearly a TSLAQ -- but that is just speculation but the guy is really looking like a fraud with an agenda.

 
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Tesla Economist has a theory that the EPA numbers on this car are wrong. The weights are weird and the efficiency is weird.

If the range was a bit higher, it would all make a lot more sense.


Another possibility is they are being super conservative with the range and using software limiting for a while until the packs prove out.

PS: Someone else posted a link to this yesterday or a day before, but worth revisiting perhaps.
There are a few area in EPA legislation and regulations that make some BEV issues ambiguous. First is that primary references are to 'engines' and 'equipment' with most 'equipment comments, regulations and definitions referring to things such as ignitions systems, exhaust systems, with catalytic converters , urea injection and Engine management systems all having fairly clear inspection, testing and certification processes.

Fuel economy si the only place where much attention is places on BEV, and there specific testing approaches, content and manufacturer options provide a fair amount of leeway. Skipping the hundred of pages, there are a small number of facts:
1. Manufacturers do the testing in accordance with the EPA standard, which have enough options to allow a vast amount of 'wiggle room';
2. There really do not appear any precise battery, BMS or vehicle alteration criteria for BEV. There ARE such rules for 'engines'.
3. Individual OEM approaches display quite a range based on which EPA approved process they choose to follow.

So, Tesla may well have not disclosed actual operations differences between 4680, 2170 and 1680 cells as such. They do make new tests and new tests when they are positioning a new vehicle differently. Recently some of the differences have become a bit obvious, not just Model Y.

Model S Plaid, as an example, easily exceeds it's listed fuel efficiency whenever it is driven as one would drive an EPA test. Since rather a large number of Plaid owners pursue non-EPA driving style they don't tend to see the results.
That makes me believe that once there is a reason to demonstrate the actual results fo the front and rear castings, structural pack and 4680's we will see some quite major revisions, together with model designation changes. FWIW, note that the Model S refresh has

No need to worry about it. Just take one of those Austin cars, weight it and drive the EPA cycles.
...or the weight is less than listed by the EPA. The weight, range, and efficiency claims don't jibe. Something doesn't match.

I highly doubt Tesla is giving away unused battery capacity when they can sell all they can make (it's not software limited).

Again, simpliest explaination is often correct: this is a STANDARD AWD, with 16% more range than a 2170-based Model 3 SR+ from Sept 2020.
No "by" the EPA. IT's by Tesla to the EPA. Manufacturers deliver the specifications and test results to the EPA. Some do testing themselves, some hire others to do it for them.

Sometime soon we'll have revised numbers, probably for weight too, for that matter. We can only wait to see if they'll change the numbers or something else.
 
MarketWatch - this morning: This crowdsourced site shames car dealers for huge markups

Excerpt: Automakers, with the exception of Tesla TSLA, 2.00% and a few similar startups, don’t set the prices for the cars. They set the prices they charge third-party dealerships, but those dealerships negotiate final sales prices with buyers.
Worth pointing out.

Automakers make a huge portion of their profits from financing activities. While they don’t set “Dealer Markup”, they absolutely benefit from higher vehicle sales prices in the form of additional financing activities.
 
Seriously if the total quarantine of the city isnt knocking out Covid then what could. I have a hard time believing that cases wont drop like a rock soon enough. Sorta like how in the US we dropped from astronomical numbers right after New Years (like 800K per day) to manageable (50K per day) in a matter of weeks. With the way China does things they should know everyone that has it and I would expect the entire household isolated.
 
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