dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Tesla passes Ford in yet another metric.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
MartinAustin
Active Member
We are, and so is the market today since TSLA + 3.5%
How come GM is not leading?Tesla passes Ford in yet another metric.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
And may it continue to, but if he did violate SEC rules and they go after him, again, it may not, thus it's relevant. It's data, people are free to do with it what they will.
I’m not sure why anyone would care about that enough to actually sell TSLA
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Reuters article by Alexander Schummer, Toronto, April 13/22: Regarding potential legislation (in Canada) to allow auto repair companies to obtain servicing data and software from auto manufacturers under the name 'right to repair' bill.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/XCLQQULZXJIOPOHOBO5G7QJB6Y.jpg)
www.reuters.com
Summary:
"Canada's accelerated timeline to fully embrace electric vehicles (EVs) presents a threat to some auto suppliers and auto mechanics, with the latter pinning hopes on a key legislation to adapt to the changing needs of the industry.
"Where there's risk is on the parts manufacturers that make parts for internal combustion components like engines and transmissions," said Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufactures' Association.
Industry groups say the switch to EVs is a bigger threat to auto mechanics, who may struggle unless the 'right to repair' bill is passed in Canada.
That bill was reintroduced in the Parliament in February, after it was killed in the House of Commons in August 2021 ahead of the federal election. The bill would force big automakers to share the parts, software and training used to repair products.
Failure to pass the bill could result in the closure of many mechanics down the line and substantial job losses in the sector, said Jean-Francois Champagne, president of the Automotive Industries Association of Canada, which represents automotive after-market supply and service chains.
Roughly 109,816 Canadians are employed in the automotive repair and maintenance industry, according to a 2022 report by Statistics Canada. A move to EVs that are loaded with technology that allows greater automation and over-the-air software updates could lead to the loss of as many as 53,707 jobs by 2051 in the worst case scenario, according to the Conference Board of Canada.
Currently, computers in EV makers like Tesla are connected in a 'closed ecosystem,' making them inaccessible to typical mechanics.
"If you have a Tesla today, pretty much Tesla will determine where you go to get your car serviced, they'll determine which parts you put on and how much you're going to pay," said Champagne.
"If you're a licensed mechanic, you should be able to fix anything that’s on the road, and have access to the software to do it," said Keeler, who on average services 50-60 cars a week.
The United States already passed a ‘right to repair’ policy in July of 2021, as part of sweeping executive order signed by President Biden. With the contents of Canada's bill already formed, and previous support established, its biggest hurdle will be automakers fighting to quash it in coming months."
Analysis: Canada's accelerated timetable for EVs brings spotlight on key bill
Canada's accelerated timeline to fully embrace electric vehicles (EVs) presents a threat to some auto suppliers and auto mechanics, with the latter pinning hopes on a key legislation to adapt to the changing needs of the industry.
www.reuters.com
Summary:
"Canada's accelerated timeline to fully embrace electric vehicles (EVs) presents a threat to some auto suppliers and auto mechanics, with the latter pinning hopes on a key legislation to adapt to the changing needs of the industry.
"Where there's risk is on the parts manufacturers that make parts for internal combustion components like engines and transmissions," said Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufactures' Association.
Industry groups say the switch to EVs is a bigger threat to auto mechanics, who may struggle unless the 'right to repair' bill is passed in Canada.
That bill was reintroduced in the Parliament in February, after it was killed in the House of Commons in August 2021 ahead of the federal election. The bill would force big automakers to share the parts, software and training used to repair products.
Failure to pass the bill could result in the closure of many mechanics down the line and substantial job losses in the sector, said Jean-Francois Champagne, president of the Automotive Industries Association of Canada, which represents automotive after-market supply and service chains.
Roughly 109,816 Canadians are employed in the automotive repair and maintenance industry, according to a 2022 report by Statistics Canada. A move to EVs that are loaded with technology that allows greater automation and over-the-air software updates could lead to the loss of as many as 53,707 jobs by 2051 in the worst case scenario, according to the Conference Board of Canada.
Currently, computers in EV makers like Tesla are connected in a 'closed ecosystem,' making them inaccessible to typical mechanics.
"If you have a Tesla today, pretty much Tesla will determine where you go to get your car serviced, they'll determine which parts you put on and how much you're going to pay," said Champagne.
"If you're a licensed mechanic, you should be able to fix anything that’s on the road, and have access to the software to do it," said Keeler, who on average services 50-60 cars a week.
The United States already passed a ‘right to repair’ policy in July of 2021, as part of sweeping executive order signed by President Biden. With the contents of Canada's bill already formed, and previous support established, its biggest hurdle will be automakers fighting to quash it in coming months."
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Let's spread the EV love around. Ford's Mache-E can have their turn. Congratulations Ford.
InsideEvs show that March '22 has Ford's highest month production of Mach-E so far (7,343) so at least they are trending in the right direction, and they are approaching the 90,000 production mark. Hoping they can continue to increase production. I will assume that they can sell every EV they make in todays market, with the majority being shipped overseas where they command higher pricing and better credits to offset emissions from their ICE vehicles. We all know it's not a Tesla, but a far cry better than anything GM has put out, and looks good and uses their masculine Mustang moniker to increase the profile of EVs for their ICE customers to consider. All good.
US: Ford Mustang Mach-E Sales Decreased In March 2022, But...
Ford Mustang Mach-E sales in the U.S. in March amounted to 2,363, which is 10.4% less than in March 2021. Production reached a new record.
insideevs.com
Hmmm, if passed, this will present a conundrum for Canadian Tesla owners.Reuters article by Alexander Schummer, Toronto, April 13/22: Regarding potential legislation (in Canada) to allow auto repair companies to obtain servicing data and software from auto manufacturers under the name 'right to repair' bill.
Analysis: Canada's accelerated timetable for EVs brings spotlight on key bill
Canada's accelerated timeline to fully embrace electric vehicles (EVs) presents a threat to some auto suppliers and auto mechanics, with the latter pinning hopes on a key legislation to adapt to the changing needs of the industry.
Summary:
"Canada's accelerated timeline to fully embrace electric vehicles (EVs) presents a threat to some auto suppliers and auto mechanics, with the latter pinning hopes on a key legislation to adapt to the changing needs of the industry.
"Where there's risk is on the parts manufacturers that make parts for internal combustion components like engines and transmissions," said Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufactures' Association.
Industry groups say the switch to EVs is a bigger threat to auto mechanics, who may struggle unless the 'right to repair' bill is passed in Canada.
That bill was reintroduced in the Parliament in February, after it was killed in the House of Commons in August 2021 ahead of the federal election. The bill would force big automakers to share the parts, software and training used to repair products.
Failure to pass the bill could result in the closure of many mechanics down the line and substantial job losses in the sector, said Jean-Francois Champagne, president of the Automotive Industries Association of Canada, which represents automotive after-market supply and service chains.
Roughly 109,816 Canadians are employed in the automotive repair and maintenance industry, according to a 2022 report by Statistics Canada. A move to EVs that are loaded with technology that allows greater automation and over-the-air software updates could lead to the loss of as many as 53,707 jobs by 2051 in the worst case scenario, according to the Conference Board of Canada.
Currently, computers in EV makers like Tesla are connected in a 'closed ecosystem,' making them inaccessible to typical mechanics.
"If you have a Tesla today, pretty much Tesla will determine where you go to get your car serviced, they'll determine which parts you put on and how much you're going to pay," said Champagne.
"If you're a licensed mechanic, you should be able to fix anything that’s on the road, and have access to the software to do it," said Keeler, who on average services 50-60 cars a week.
The United States already passed a ‘right to repair’ policy in July of 2021, as part of sweeping executive order signed by President Biden. With the contents of Canada's bill already formed, and previous support established, its biggest hurdle will be automakers fighting to quash it in coming months."
Do I book an appointment with my local mechanic, drive to the garage, leave the car to be repaired, arrange transport to work, leave work early, arrange transport back to the garage, pay the bill and drive home?
Or
Leave my car where it is in the driveway, get another beer, and sit back on the sofa while the OTA update fixes the problem, at no cost?
Tricky
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Thank you for responding. I really respect your analysis so I'm still trying to understand why we have such a wide discrepancy in ASP estimates. I'm doing the math as carefully as I can and getting $67k average revenue per vehicle this year.
Minor Quibble on Deliveries
291,760 units sold appears to be off by 730 units. Per the Q4 report:
Reg Credits
The $15.025 B revenue excludes $315 M of regulatory credits, whereas I have kept that part in because I believe it'll be sustained around that level for a at least a couple more years. So that explains some of the difference. Overall auto revenue excluding leasing was $15.339 B in Q4, or $52.4 k per vehicle. If this was proportional to the overall sales/lease ratio, then $298M of that can be attributable to sold vehicles, which adds about $1.0k to average revenue per vehicle.
$15.339 B / 292,490 veh sold = $52.44 k rev/veh overall
Price Increase Lag
Because of the backlog being around 4 months, the prices for Q4 (Oct-Dec) were for orders from around Jun-Aug. In the time since then, prices across the whole vehicle lineup have increased by approximately 17% with the majority of these increases starting in October (ref Fig 1, US Price Changes). Therefore, with a 4-month delay, the big increases we've had thus far will start hitting the financials in the first half of 2022. All else being equal, this alone would account for approximately (1.17) * ($51.43k rev/veh price w/o reg cred) = $60.17k ASP.
Figure 1, US Price Changes
Source: Rob Maurer, Tesla Daily
Most vehicles sold in 2022 will be with prices set between Mar-Aug because of that 4-month delay and because deliveries growth is hyperlinear, so the majority of sales occur in the last 1/3rd of the year.
Yet prices just keep rising, so today's prices are actually probably less than the eventual 2022 average will be. If trends continue as they have been, but they taper off somewhat as the volume growth provides some relief, then average price across 2022 for each model will be about $2-4k higher than today's price. Let's conservatively call it $2k, so $60.17k bumps to $62.2k and if we add $1k reg credits back in, we're at revenue/vehicle of $63.2k for 2022.
This price increase projection could be too conservative because all of the following factors maybe increase the rate of demand growth vs. what we've seen since 2021.
Mix
Mix, too, is improving majorly. First, for the historical trend look at Fig 2, Deliveries by Model. We can see that for six consecutive quarters Model 3 growth was minimal while Model Y production has been predictably exploding upward, going from being a quarter of Tesla's volume in Q4 2020 to half of volume in Q4 2021. Model 3 got a 2.5-year head start, but Model Y is overtaking it now. And this was just the trend from Fremont and Shanghai expansions in the last couple years; Berlin and Austin will accelerate the trend by producing exclusively Model Ys in 2022. So, in all I think we can expect Model Y to be 65-80% of volume in 2022, with 80% being the scenario where the Phase Three expansion at Shanghai is just for making Ys and Berlin & Austin surprise us with their ramp velocity.
Figure 2, Deliveries by Model
Source: James Stephenson, @icannot_enough
I doubt Tesla will prioritize Model 3 RWD production, so Hertz might be waiting for a while for complete fulfillment of their 100k order, unless they were pushed to the front of the queue ahead of other customers, in which case millions more renters in 2022 will be getting their first-time Tesla experience and many will then place orders, driving prices up further.
Refreshed S&X production is still ramping disproportionately faster than Model 3. I'd expect overall S&X share of volume to increase from 3.8% in Q4 2021 to around 4.5% averaged across 2022, assuming in the next couple quarters S&X production approaches the official nominal production capacity of 25k per quarter.
So, overall mix will go something like this:
Figure 3, Delivery Volume Share by Model
Source: Fig 2 and my own estimates
Considering that Model Y is priced about $7k higher than Model 3 and S&X about $65k higher, some tedious number-crunching says that this shift in mix would result in a $3.9k bonus for ASP, most of which coming from the Model Y effect. Adding this to the $63.2k previously calculated baseline revenue per vehicle from price increases then bumps the total rev/veh estimate to $67.1k for 2022.
Miscellaneous Factors not Considered
Insurance expansion may add materially to revenue per vehicle. I don't know how to model that and it's probably $1k/car at most.
The Europe/Middle East/North Africa market is so desperate for Model Ys that the average price (BEFORE extra options) in essentially every country except Germany is like $75k USD equivalent. So any contribution from Berlin is likely to drag Model Y ASP higher even more by maybe a couple hundred bucks, but I won't count that to be conservative since it's very hard to predict the ramp in 2022.
The backlog enables Tesla to prioritize orders with higher vehicle trims or with extra upsell options for FSD/Paint/Extra Seats/Interior Color/Wheels/Tow Hitch/Premium Connectivity. And with the backlog they have, why not? A car with red paint doesn't cost $2k extra to make, nor are sport wheels $1.5k extra cost. So, I expect Tesla to prioritize these to maximize gross profit per unit. This could easily add yet another $3k to average price which I will again exclude to be conservative because I can't have high certainty Tesla will exploit this opportunity and indeed the current configurator on Tesla.com does not indicate that delivery comes sooner with extras selected.
Summary
Overall this math leads me to an estimate of $67k for rev/veh in 2022 as a whole. There is also clearly room for this to be in the low $70s if any of the following optimistic scenarios occur:
291,760 units sold appears to be off by 730 units. Per the Q4 report:
Total Deliveries 308,650
of which leased 16,160
All vehicles not leased were sold, so that means 292,490 were sold.
Reg Credits
The $15.025 B revenue excludes $315 M of regulatory credits, whereas I have kept that part in because I believe it'll be sustained around that level for a at least a couple more years. So that explains some of the difference. Overall auto revenue excluding leasing was $15.339 B in Q4, or $52.4 k per vehicle. If this was proportional to the overall sales/lease ratio, then $298M of that can be attributable to sold vehicles, which adds about $1.0k to average revenue per vehicle.
$15.339 B / 292,490 veh sold = $52.44 k rev/veh overall
Price Increase Lag
Because of the backlog being around 4 months, the prices for Q4 (Oct-Dec) were for orders from around Jun-Aug. In the time since then, prices across the whole vehicle lineup have increased by approximately 17% with the majority of these increases starting in October (ref Fig 1, US Price Changes). Therefore, with a 4-month delay, the big increases we've had thus far will start hitting the financials in the first half of 2022. All else being equal, this alone would account for approximately (1.17) * ($51.43k rev/veh price w/o reg cred) = $60.17k ASP.
Figure 1, US Price Changes
Source: Rob Maurer, Tesla Daily
Most vehicles sold in 2022 will be with prices set between Mar-Aug because of that 4-month delay and because deliveries growth is hyperlinear, so the majority of sales occur in the last 1/3rd of the year.
Yet prices just keep rising, so today's prices are actually probably less than the eventual 2022 average will be. If trends continue as they have been, but they taper off somewhat as the volume growth provides some relief, then average price across 2022 for each model will be about $2-4k higher than today's price. Let's conservatively call it $2k, so $60.17k bumps to $62.2k and if we add $1k reg credits back in, we're at revenue/vehicle of $63.2k for 2022.
This price increase projection could be too conservative because all of the following factors maybe increase the rate of demand growth vs. what we've seen since 2021.
- Other automakers appear to be collapsing, reducing the amount of substitute goods available
- Starship probably hits orbital flight this year
- Russia situation may worsen oil price fears
- Hertz rental availability is much higher than in 2021 and early 2022, resulting in more test drives
- Elon is becoming increasingly famous
- Boring Co Loops are expanding and usage of existing Vegas Loop is increasing, resulting in more test drives
- Master Plan Part Trois or any new product reveals may increase excitement and attention towards Tesla
Mix
Mix, too, is improving majorly. First, for the historical trend look at Fig 2, Deliveries by Model. We can see that for six consecutive quarters Model 3 growth was minimal while Model Y production has been predictably exploding upward, going from being a quarter of Tesla's volume in Q4 2020 to half of volume in Q4 2021. Model 3 got a 2.5-year head start, but Model Y is overtaking it now. And this was just the trend from Fremont and Shanghai expansions in the last couple years; Berlin and Austin will accelerate the trend by producing exclusively Model Ys in 2022. So, in all I think we can expect Model Y to be 65-80% of volume in 2022, with 80% being the scenario where the Phase Three expansion at Shanghai is just for making Ys and Berlin & Austin surprise us with their ramp velocity.
Figure 2, Deliveries by Model
Source: James Stephenson, @icannot_enough
I doubt Tesla will prioritize Model 3 RWD production, so Hertz might be waiting for a while for complete fulfillment of their 100k order, unless they were pushed to the front of the queue ahead of other customers, in which case millions more renters in 2022 will be getting their first-time Tesla experience and many will then place orders, driving prices up further.
Refreshed S&X production is still ramping disproportionately faster than Model 3. I'd expect overall S&X share of volume to increase from 3.8% in Q4 2021 to around 4.5% averaged across 2022, assuming in the next couple quarters S&X production approaches the official nominal production capacity of 25k per quarter.
So, overall mix will go something like this:
Figure 3, Delivery Volume Share by Model
Source: Fig 2 and my own estimates
Considering that Model Y is priced about $7k higher than Model 3 and S&X about $65k higher, some tedious number-crunching says that this shift in mix would result in a $3.9k bonus for ASP, most of which coming from the Model Y effect. Adding this to the $63.2k previously calculated baseline revenue per vehicle from price increases then bumps the total rev/veh estimate to $67.1k for 2022.
Miscellaneous Factors not Considered
Insurance expansion may add materially to revenue per vehicle. I don't know how to model that and it's probably $1k/car at most.
The Europe/Middle East/North Africa market is so desperate for Model Ys that the average price (BEFORE extra options) in essentially every country except Germany is like $75k USD equivalent. So any contribution from Berlin is likely to drag Model Y ASP higher even more by maybe a couple hundred bucks, but I won't count that to be conservative since it's very hard to predict the ramp in 2022.
The backlog enables Tesla to prioritize orders with higher vehicle trims or with extra upsell options for FSD/Paint/Extra Seats/Interior Color/Wheels/Tow Hitch/Premium Connectivity. And with the backlog they have, why not? A car with red paint doesn't cost $2k extra to make, nor are sport wheels $1.5k extra cost. So, I expect Tesla to prioritize these to maximize gross profit per unit. This could easily add yet another $3k to average price which I will again exclude to be conservative because I can't have high certainty Tesla will exploit this opportunity and indeed the current configurator on Tesla.com does not indicate that delivery comes sooner with extras selected.
Summary
Overall this math leads me to an estimate of $67k for rev/veh in 2022 as a whole. There is also clearly room for this to be in the low $70s if any of the following optimistic scenarios occur:
- Berlin or Austin ramp substantially faster than Shanghai did a couple years ago
- The price increase trend does NOT taper off, as I projected to get a conservative $2k impact
- FSD take rate and price suddenly increase, as the long-heralded V11 updated and subsequent Dojo-trained versions majorly increase the desirability of the software for customers
Last edited:
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
The internal comms on the Model Y AWD were briefly Tweeted and then deleted. Not too much new information, but the phrasing "Introducing the new cells meant introducing a new variant of Model Y." probably confirms our anti-Osborne theories. And at least internally, it's not due to cell supply: "We've chosen to put a lower-energy battery pack in Model Y AWD, resulting in the lower range, acceleration and price point."
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
It doesn't look good. If it looked like an actual Ford Mustang I would a agree with you.Let's spread the EV love around. Ford's Mache-E can have their turn. Congratulations Ford.
InsideEvs show that March '22 has Ford's highest month production of Mach-E so far (7,343) so at least they are trending in the right direction, and they are approaching the 90,000 production mark. Hoping they can continue to increase production. I will assume that they can sell every EV they make in todays market, with the majority being shipped overseas where they command higher pricing and better credits to offset emissions from their ICE vehicles. We all know it's not a Tesla, but a far cry better than anything GM has put out, and looks good and uses their masculine Mustang moniker to increase the profile of EVs for their ICE customers to consider. All good.
US: Ford Mustang Mach-E Sales Decreased In March 2022, But...
Ford Mustang Mach-E sales in the U.S. in March amounted to 2,363, which is 10.4% less than in March 2021. Production reached a new record.
View attachment 793442
navguy12
Active Member
Or, after the four year warranty is up, obsess about the two and a half hour drive to the nearest Tesla service center to deal with (insert notional 12 volt system/suspension system/brake system/whatever system) issues or take the car to my local guy (who used to service my old Prius) who is a 12 minute drive from my place.
Favguy
Member
OTA isn't limitless or magical. There are plenty of faults that will still need actual physical work and/or part replacement doing and for those out of warranty, Tesla's labour rates are very high. Also, Tesla SC's are often pretty remote to many and as I've discovered personally, Tesla SC's work quality can be pretty shoddy as well. Quality, trusted, local mechanics being able to help can only be a good thing.
MountainRatMat
Member
That doesnt matter, even the Leaf sold in large quantities. What matters is range, charging speed, driver assist and competitive price.
It takes 18hrs for Toyota to build a car which is considered to be the most efficient factory in the world.
I would love a SAY question during earnings to be "can you please share to us how many hrs it takes Tesla to build a Model Y from beginning to end at Giga Texas, and what is the ultimate goal you guys are working toward? How does this compared to industry standard?"
I would love to know the answer to this and it will put "but Tesla is a car company" to rest. The length of time it takes to build a car has a direct correlation to gross margins. This is the most important question to ask, especially about the end goal.
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