Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[deshkart]

Over the last several months, we have become increasingly bullish on Tesla, our largest holding. As an expression of our increased confidence, through Q1 we increased our Tesla position.

At a high level, we believe Tesla is on a path to dominate the S&P 500. Much like Amazon emerged from the Nasdaq Bubble and the Financial Crisis, we think Tesla has at least another 10 years of growth ahead, and it is just now hitting its inflection point of accelerated, rapid growth.

At the same time, consensus estimates of Tesla’s growth are, in our view, extremely low. This dynamic, in our opinion, will likely result in consistent upwards revisions to expectations, creating one of the more dramatic arbitrage investment opportunities we have ever come across.

From a data, scale, and advanced manufacturing perspective, the company is entering escape velocity. To be clear, Tesla’s stock price and market value is no longer a reflection of anticipated success. It reflects its current success and proven ability to generate substantial earnings and record-setting cash-flows at scale. In sum: It’s early days. We’ll soon be publishing a comprehensive research report on Tesla. Stay tuned.

Part of the yearly letter from one of investment funds I follow.

 

[CLK350]

That TED talk was *excellent* in that it let Elon set the record straight on a couple items, among others the SEC bastardly injunction ( Funding secured ) the SF SEC office knew it was indeed secured, the banks essentially FORCED Elon to cave in .. so it was NOT a lie - he had a gun to his child's head AND THEY KNEW IT, of course the SEC is part of the anti Tesla FUD (together with the financial industry )

Also the bit about how Tesla was *created* by Elon and JB Straubel - intially Eberhard et al had NO patents, no special sauce ... so if anything Tesla really is the creation of Elon and Straubel.

Hope someone here can post a transcript of the talk ASAP .. a lot also said about Twitter, settles it nicely. Of course he has a plan B...

From Gary (on Titter .. )

 

[Usain]

Net energy embedded in traded goods

Net energy embedded in traded goods is the difference in energy embedded in exported goods, and imported goods. A positive value means that a country is a net importer; a negative means it's a net exporter. Measured in terawatt-hours.

ourworldindata.org

The net embedded energy in our imports minus exports is about 3500 TWh which is ~12 quads. The US uses about 100 quads of energy so this increases our real consumption by about 12%. Primary energy per capita is still in the same range as the 70s.

You may be right. I wasn't considering advances in efficiency.

Since the 70's, I think it's very hard to argue that Americans actually use less energy in an absolute sense. More of us have air conditioning. We have much larger homes. We buy more stuff that needs to be manufactured. We have more electronics. We fly more. etc.

But this growth in absolute energy usage might have been offset by efficiency. Cars are more efficient. Air conditioners are more efficient. etc. So perhaps we have done more with the same amount of fossil fuel.

I still think we will all use as much energy as we can get at a reasonable cost. So as Tesla makes energy cheaper and more abundant, we will use it all. Investors will benefit.

The trick will be to make sure that fossil fuels are so expensive in comparison that nobody will want to use them alongside the green alternatives. If all we do is add green energy to the fossil fuels we already consume then we haven't helped humanity very much.

 

[Curt Renz]

Did MM's forget we have earnings next week ...
... added some 1100 Call lotto plays for next week ... cheers!!

They know that the monthly options (bigger than weekly) expiration day is today because the markets are closed tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the macros are not being helpful due to rising interest rates, risk-off before a three-day weekend, and selling of shares to pay income tax.

It appears that the $990 TSLA strike price is the target for large option writers with the ability to temporaily manipulate the share price. The light trading volume makes it easier for them.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

That TED talk was *excellent* in that it let Elon set the record straight on a couple items, among others the SEC bastardly injunction ( Funding secured ) the SF SEC office knew it was indeed secured, the banks essentially FORCED Elon to cave in .. so it was NOT a lie - he had a gun to his child's head AND THEY KNEW IT, of course the SEC is part of the anti Tesla FUD (together with the financial industry )

Also the bit about how Tesla was *created* by Elon and JB Straubel - intially Eberhard et al had NO patents, no special sauce ... so if anything Tesla really is the creation of Elon and Straubel.

Hope someone here can post a transcript of the talk ASAP .. a lot also said about Twitter, settles it nicely. Of course he has a plan B...

From Gary (on Titter .. )

View attachment 793708

Elon really went ham on the Shortseller Enrichment Commission and also Martin Eberhard this TED talk. Gotta love it.

Somewhere, Pete Rawlinson is crying because it seems Elon doesn't even know he exists.

 

[FireMedic]

**IT just got real!

I think we all know the answer to the second question

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514683079968931841

 

[Artful Dodger]

When are we going to get an Elonshire Hathaway holding company we can invest into - batteries, transportation, utility, AI, robotics, insurance, space exploration, internet, social media. Analysts wouldn’t be able to value but I believe this would be the investment opportunity of a lifetime.

We have one. It's called TSLA.

 

[elasalle]

They know that the monthly options (bigger than weekly) expiration day is today because the markets are closed tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the macros are not being helpful due to rising interest rates, risk-off before a three-day weekend, and selling of shares to pay income tax.

It appears that the $990 TSLA strike price is the target for large option writers with the ability to temporaily manipulate the share price. The light trading volume makes it easier for them.

I thought markets were closed tomorrow, pulled up NASDAQ calendar and it showed April 2nd .. must have been from last year ... damn ... I need to get my eyes checked
lotto plays are for fun .. let's hope for a Monday pop

Good Friday means markets will not hurt the longs or shorts

 

[willow_hiller]

TED has put the full interview up on Youtube for those who missed it. Starting at 1 hour 15 minutes if the timestamp doesn't work. Also the interviewer said they had previously recorded a full 80 minute interview at Giga Austin that they'll post on Sunday. Looking forward to that one because it seemed much more Tesla-focused.

 

[StealthP3D]

Hmmm, if passed, this will present a conundrum for Canadian Tesla owners.

Do I book an appointment with my local mechanic, drive to the garage, leave the car to be repaired, arrange transport to work, leave work early, arrange transport back to the garage, pay the bill and drive home?

Or

Leave my car where it is in the driveway, get another beer, and sit back on the sofa while the OTA update fixes the problem, at no cost?

Tricky

Sure, you make it sound like an easy decision, but I like to maintain my cars at a high level and there are certain preventative maintenance jobs that Tesla avoids doing even when you're willing to pay them for it. For example, I have to make a special appointment with my local mechanic to replace the blinker fluid because my Tesla Service Center claims this is unnecessary. But I'm not stupid, electric cars have blinkers too! My local mechanic does it for only $89 which provides me with a lot of peace of mind because I tend to keep my cars a long time.

Things like this, the local repair shop is just more thorough...

 

[elasalle]

**IT just got real!

I think we all know the answer to the second question

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514683079968931841

OK Lucid, you can have Twitter as well

 

[Drumheller]

Not a fan of zerohedge as they are usually BS but this is funny

Goldman Sachs with their usual behavior.

 

[Christine69420]

Ot of curiosity how does one find a "...Quality, trusted, local mechanic..."
A few decades back that was not a problem in many places. In 2022 is that still easy? I know of two places that can work on Tesla in the US and one in Croatia. I'm sure there are many others. Tires, alignment many of us already do.

Were there a way to identify capable places many owners, maybe most would choose repair outside Tesla Service Centers.
BEV are quite distinct in that they have different skill sets needed.

Just try your local dealer for service on your non-Tesla and it becomes clear that BEV is a different beast. I may be biased: Since I bought my Volvo BEV there has been one defect that had three dealer visits and still is not fixed, even after factory advice. Minor, to be sure.

Now lot us think about going to a local mechanic generalist for service on a Tesla. It is not so simple as that.
Exotic ICE have the same problems, and they don't have high voltage battery issues.

Over here in Norway I've seen many local garages and chains advertising that they have mechanics trained on EVs and that they can service all EV (and fossil) brands.

My friend with an older TMS out of warranty have used a local garage with great success. I'm not sure on the exact nature of the issues he have had repaired though - might have been on the common ground with fossils.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Sure, you make it sound like an easy decision, but I like to maintain my cars at a high level and there are certain preventative maintenance jobs that Tesla avoids doing even when you're willing to pay them for it. For example, I have to make a special appointment with my local mechanic to replace the blinker fluid because my Tesla Service Center claims this is unnecessary. But I'm not stupid, electric cars have blinkers too! My local mechanic does it for only $89 which provides me with a lot of peace of mind because I tend to keep my cars a long time.

Things like this, the local repair shop is just more thorough...

How to do your own repairs...

 

[growler23]

The US hit the glass ceiling for fossil fuels in the 70s, energy use per capita has been flat since then.

View attachment 793693

I don’t think most people are ready for the age of solar abundance when we shoot past that old ceiling, and the question becomes what to do with all this extra power in the summer.

Hopefully we will get seasonal-duration storage going. I've been looking for developments on multi-month storage for a while - major problem to solve as we go full renewable... Found a fascinating little article on laboratory development on that front from CleanTechnica:

"Hibernating" Energy Storage Solves Seasonal Power Generation Problem - CleanTechnica

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has developed a long duration "hibernating" battery made with an electrolyte that can be chilled from a liquid to a solid when excess renewable energy is abundant, then thawed to release energy when needed.

cleantechnica.com

TL;DR article describes a common-materials molten salt battery that can solidify for months on end to avoid losses. Charge it in summer, discharge in winter as needed. Requires external heat source to wake it up from its room-temperature efficient "hibernation".

Someone like Tesla's energy division could really take that from lab to commercial product at scale. Combining that Megapacks at scale, and they could cover short and long term storage.

Some might even think the share price would go up then

 

[ZachF]

Hopefully we will get seasonal-duration storage going. I've been looking for developments on multi-month storage for a while - major problem to solve as we go full renewable... Found a fascinating little article on laboratory development on that front from CleanTechnica:

"Hibernating" Energy Storage Solves Seasonal Power Generation Problem - CleanTechnica

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has developed a long duration "hibernating" battery made with an electrolyte that can be chilled from a liquid to a solid when excess renewable energy is abundant, then thawed to release energy when needed.

cleantechnica.com

TL;DR article describes a common-materials molten salt battery that can solidify for months on end to avoid losses. Charge it in summer, discharge in winter as needed. Requires external heat source to wake it up from its room-temperature efficient "hibernation".

Someone like Tesla's energy division could really take that from lab to commercial product at scale. Combining that Megapacks at scale, and they could cover short and long term storage.

Some might even think the share price would go up then

My idea is to create large desalination plants on the coasts and pump water into large manmade reservoirs in the mountains as both a seasonal storage and national irrigation system. A “water grid”.

 

[Todd Burch]

Looks like all this Twitter stuff didn't really have an effect on TSLA today. We snapped right to max pain-ish on a low volume day...And macros are red anyway. Coincidence? Nope.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

My idea is to create large desalination plants on the coasts and pump water into large manmade reservoirs in the mountains as both a seasonal storage and national irrigation system. A “water grid”.

So you must be looking at installing offshore wind around the scale of today's total grid capacity? Don't get me wrong......I'm on board. Just seems like a LOT of power.

 

[growler23]

My idea is to create large desalination plants on the coasts and pump water into large manmade reservoirs in the mountains as both a seasonal storage and national irrigation system. A “water grid”.

Wow! Nothing like thinking at continent-spanning scale! Very cool. Mega engineering that would put even the old Roman Aqueducts to shame. We'd need some really good pipes.
That rings a bell with me; I just read another article about Ebb Carbon, a startup that would co-locate with desalination plants (or other seawater users) and remove hydrochloric acid from the seawater, selling that as a product, and returning the more basic seawater to the ocean, with the idea of allowing the ocean to then absorb more carbon and form calcium carbonate (which sequesters the carbon for thousands of years). Interesting idea, chemistry sounds reasonable but I am no chemist. But sounds like a possible virtuous add-on to your idea.
I admit this is a bit OT and OK if it gets deleted. Maybe we cover any canals with Tesla solar panels...

 

[CHGolferJim]

The largest driving force behind this migration is the ability for people to work remote and therefore taking the opportunity to move from congested HCOL areas to smaller cities with LCOL.

A friend who rents in Daytona Beach, FL has been advised of a 43% increase! He's considering a move to Savannah.